AL-Mason Dixon: Sen. Jones (D) -10 in re-election, but Roy Moore leads R primary

[OneJ]

Deplorable results, but I didn't expect anything more.

[Ronnie]

All the people giddy about Roy Moore potentially winning the R nom would have a hard dose of reality when they'd see Roy Moore beating Jones by 10 points.

It's not a low-turnout off-year election this time, folks.  And of all people, Alabama Republicans aren't going to vote Trump/Jones.

[pppolitics]

All the people giddy about Roy Moore potentially winning the R nom would have a hard dose of reality when they'd see Roy Moore beating Jones by 10 points.

It's not a low-turnout off-year election this time, folks.  And of all people, Alabama Republicans aren't going to vote Trump/Jones.

It's okay.

We want as many elected Republican pedophiles and rapists as possible to taint the Republican Party.

[Suburbia]

The Alabama Republican Party is that stupid to renominate Moore.

If Moore beats Jones this time because of higher turnout, then AL will look foolish.

Former Alabama Gov. Bob Riley would be a good candidate, he'd beat Jones by 10 points.

AL-SEN is still tossup.

Politics has been too hyperpolarized and hypernationalized. It used to be "politics is local", but the 1994 Gingrich revolution changed that.

[Pericles]

Moore could finish first in the GOP primary, but will likely have a much more difficult time
winning a run-off. His current lead is largely a result of his name recognition advantage over
others in the field, standing at about 20-points over Brooks, 40-points over Byrne and 50-
points over Palmer. Those cushions will evaporate once the campaign begins in earnest.
Moore also remains a divisive figure among Republican voters, with 34% having a favorable
opinion of him but 29% holding an unfavorable view. All of the other potential candidates
only have single-digit unfavorable name recognition.
Additionally, all of the three Alabama congressmen that could face Moore in the run-off will
not have the baggage of his 2017 run-off opponent -- appointed Senator Luther Strange.
Strange was hampered by the fact that he received his appointment to the Senate from
unpopular former Governor Robert Bentley, who was later forced to resign from office.

Most likely a non-pedophile candidate is nominated by the GOP who proceeds to win in a landslide.

[smoltchanov]

Moore could finish first in the GOP primary, but will likely have a much more difficult time
winning a run-off. His current lead is largely a result of his name recognition advantage over
others in the field, standing at about 20-points over Brooks, 40-points over Byrne and 50-
points over Palmer. Those cushions will evaporate once the campaign begins in earnest.
Moore also remains a divisive figure among Republican voters, with 34% having a favorable
opinion of him but 29% holding an unfavorable view. All of the other potential candidates
only have single-digit unfavorable name recognition.
Additionally, all of the three Alabama congressmen that could face Moore in the run-off will
not have the baggage of his 2017 run-off opponent -- appointed Senator Luther Strange.
Strange was hampered by the fact that he received his appointment to the Senate from
unpopular former Governor Robert Bentley, who was later forced to resign from office.

Most likely a non-pedophile candidate is nominated by the GOP who proceeds to win in a landslide.

I hope for it. Jones is extremely lucky, but - hardly a candidate, who fits modern Alabama. And Moore - utter disgrace and scoundrel.. Better - someone else...

[Technocracy Timmy]

All the people giddy about Roy Moore potentially winning the R nom would have a hard dose of reality when they'd see Roy Moore beating Jones by 10 points.

It's not a low-turnout off-year election this time, folks.  And of all people, Alabama Republicans aren't going to vote Trump/Jones.

Massachusetts 2012 Senate repeat in the making.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

All the people giddy about Roy Moore potentially winning the R nom would have a hard dose of reality when they'd see Roy Moore beating Jones by 10 points.

It's not a low-turnout off-year election this time, folks.  And of all people, Alabama Republicans aren't going to vote Trump/Jones.

Massachusetts 2012 Senate repeat in the making.

If the DSCC spends money on this race I will be so pissed. But it wouldn't surprise me

[cvparty]

is roy moore running lol i hope he does win the nom it would make things really interesting

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

is roy moore running lol i hope he does win the nom it would make things really interesting

He says he's in and aside from Jeff Sessions, he is the most polarizing figure, but is adored amomg state GOP. Not the leaders, but the masses and will lose a rematch

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Almost all of the shift from Trump in 2016 to Jones in 2017 was from Republicans staying home and not from people actually switching from Trump to Jones. Exit polls showed Trumps approval in the state on the day of the special election as 48 approve to 47 disapprove, while the results were 50 Jones to 48 Moore. Trumps real approval in the state is almost certainly much better than the 48 to 47 exit poll said it was, and it will show up in the composition of the electorate in 2020 in a way that it did not show up in 2017.

[UWS]

I see Moore's senate primary rivals broadcasting a wave of negative ads against Moore in order to describe him as unelectable as he blew away a winnable special election in a red state like Alabama. Anyway, if Moore runs, I would see the GOP senate race in Alabama turning similar to the 2018 Republican senate primary race when some Morrisey voters and Jenkins voters surely voted for one of these two in order to beat Don Blankenship.

[Senator Incitatus]

Any reason they excluded Tuberville? He declared two weeks ago and probably will have extremely high name ID.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I had a feeling this would happen. Conservatives felt Kavanaugh was a "witch hunt", so they'll probably feel that way about every accusation now. I remember feeling at the time that Moore probably won have won if the election had been held in December 2018 instead of December 2017.

[Stranger in a strange land]

I had a feeling this would happen. Conservatives felt Kavanaugh was a "witch hunt", so they'll probably feel that way about every accusation now. I remember feeling at the time that Moore probably won have won if the election had been held in December 2018 instead of December 2017.

The AL Senate Special happened on the day where Trump's approvals were at the lowest point of his entire presidency: if the midterms had been held on that day, the Dems probably would have taken the Senate and gained 60+ seats in the House. Of course, the fact his approvals had sunk so low probably had something to do with the fact that people were constantly hearing about Roy Moore.

[bandg]

Two predictions:
1) No way Moore wins the nomination
2) If by some miracle, Moore is the nominee, he will easily defeat Jones. GOP voters sat out the special in droves because there was only one race on ballot, and who would want to take the time to vote for Moore? But 2020 will be a presidential electorate, Jones doesn't stand a chance.

[Person Man]

White Supremacist Evangelism is STRONG.

They prefer the term "Nationalist".

[S019]

Two predictions:
1) No way Moore wins the nomination
2) If by some miracle, Moore is the nominee, he will easily defeat Jones. GOP voters sat out the special in droves because there was only one race on ballot, and who would want to take the time to vote for Moore? But 2020 will be a presidential electorate, Jones doesn't stand a chance.

Remember in 2012, Moore had a close race against Bob Vance, while Romney easily won the state


I would say Lean R with Moore, because Trump is so polarizing, but if Trump underperforms, don’t rule out a Jones victory

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Two predictions:
1) No way Moore wins the nomination
2) If by some miracle, Moore is the nominee, he will easily defeat Jones. GOP voters sat out the special in droves because there was only one race on ballot, and who would want to take the time to vote for Moore? But 2020 will be a presidential electorate, Jones doesn't stand a chance.

Remember in 2012, Moore had a close race against Bob Vance, while Romney easily won the state


I would say Lean R with Moore, because Trump is so polarizing, but if Trump underperforms, don’t rule out a Jones victory

Yes, if someone like Biden or Beto or Tim Ryan breaks through and win the nomination, they can pull Jones over the top with WWC voters.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

Two predictions:
1) No way Moore wins the nomination
2) If by some miracle, Moore is the nominee, he will easily defeat Jones. GOP voters sat out the special in droves because there was only one race on ballot, and who would want to take the time to vote for Moore? But 2020 will be a presidential electorate, Jones doesn't stand a chance.

Remember in 2012, Moore had a close race against Bob Vance, while Romney easily won the state


I would say Lean R with Moore, because Trump is so polarizing, but if Trump underperforms, don’t rule out a Jones victory

I'm actually inclined to agree. For those wondering, he won 51.77-48.23. Now, I don't see Trump underpreforming in AL, but also remember that in 2012, Moore wasn't outed as a pedo. Maybe I'm just being overly optimistic though.

[pppolitics]

[MT Treasurer]

Moore ran a terrible campaign even before the allegations surfaced, just like the corrupt Luther Strange. I don’t know why the AL GOP seems to be so intent on blowing winnable Senate races, but Moore winning the R primary would pretty much move this Tilt or maybe even Lean D, which is bad because a loss here would pretty much ensure a Democratic Senate majority if Trump loses reelection. Alabamians seem to be fine with that, though.

[Canis]

Moore ran a terrible campaign even before the allegations surfaced, just like the corrupt Luther Strange. I don’t know why the AL GOP seems to be so intent on blowing winnable Senate races, but Moore winning the R primary would pretty much move this Tilt or maybe even Lean D, which is bad because a loss here would pretty much ensure a Democratic Senate majority if Trump loses reelection. Alabamians seem to be fine with that, though.

Exactly  Moore only won by 3 in a presidential year BEFORE  being outed as a pedo

[MT Treasurer]

Moore ran a terrible campaign even before the allegations surfaced, just like the corrupt Luther Strange. I don’t know why the AL GOP seems to be so intent on blowing winnable Senate races, but Moore winning the R primary would pretty much move this Tilt or maybe even Lean D, which is bad because a loss here would pretty much ensure a Democratic Senate majority if Trump loses reelection. Alabamians seem to be fine with that, though.

Exactly  Moore only won by 3 in a presidential year BEFORE  being outed as a pedo

Yeah, and IIRC, his 2017 Senate campaign was poorly run as well. Wasn’t there polling showing a dead heat even before the allegations became an issue?

[Canis]

Moore ran a terrible campaign even before the allegations surfaced, just like the corrupt Luther Strange. I don’t know why the AL GOP seems to be so intent on blowing winnable Senate races, but Moore winning the R primary would pretty much move this Tilt or maybe even Lean D, which is bad because a loss here would pretty much ensure a Democratic Senate majority if Trump loses reelection. Alabamians seem to be fine with that, though.

Exactly  Moore only won by 3 in a presidential year BEFORE  being outed as a pedo

Yeah, and IIRC, his 2017 Senate campaign was poorly run as well. Wasn’t there polling showing a dead heat even before the allegations became an issue?

Yeah their was a fox news poll that had them both tied at 42 which like their were a lot of undecideds that were prob gonna break for moore but then the allegations came out and we all know what happened next