Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[Sir Mohamed]

Isn't YouGov relatively GOP friendly? Still these numbers are not indicating he's favored for reelection.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Isn't YouGov relatively GOP friendly? Still these numbers are not indicating he's favored for reelection.

Overall they tend to be neutral to a little D-friendly.  This is a pretty good (not spectacular) poll for Trump compared to their usual weekly RV trackers.  (I recommend ignoring their daily 1000-adult snapshots, which jump all over the place.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Climate Nexus, Aug. 20-22, 2208 RV (change from April)

Approve 41 (-4)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Strongly approve 23 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (+3)

Many issue questions in this one (the approval question was asked first).

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1169303227994710022?s=20

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1169303227994710022?s=20

Is this Wisconsin only?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1169303227994710022?s=20

Is this Wisconsin only?

Yes

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1169303227994710022?s=20

Is this Wisconsin only?

Yes. 'S been a while since I saw a poll by Marquette University Law School (give credit to Ira Gershwin for that contraction, and not me)... 53% disapproval says that Wisconsin is just inside the zone of contention, but Trump has about a 99% chance of losing it. I did not see Obama win any state in which his disapproval went above 51%, and I don't see Trump as in any way a more adept campaigner than Obama.  Plenty of polls have shown Trump disapproval in the mid-50's, so the President seems to have little chance of winning Wisconsin.  

Wisconsin: fringe of contention. Trump loses Wisconsin 53-47 at the most sympathetic interpretation (100-DIS) on this poll. Trump loses all disapproval votes in a state in which he does not have an R apparatus working on his behalf.

Manchin (D) 49
Justice (R) 39

GOP Primary:
Justice 53
Thrasher 19
Folk 12

Justice approval: 42/40
Manchin approval: 49/37
Trump approval: 54/38

http://wvmetronews.com/2019/08/30/west-virginia-poll-if-manchin-gets-in-right-now-he-would-beat-justice/

Not that Trump will lose WV in 2020, the approval number is tepid for what should be a strong R state. Such is a sign of big trouble nationwide.  Sure, it is only 1% away from the category in which a 10% margin of victory is assured -- but this is West Virginia, where Republicans should be flying high. 
 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data tracker (weekly), Sep. 3-4, 1116 adults including 950 RV

Adults:

Approve 40 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-3)

Strongly approve 22 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 41 (-2)

RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 54 (-2)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 42 (-1)

Looks like reversion toward the mean after last week's big drop.

[Gass3268]

TEXAS LYCEUM POLL:

How well do you think Donald Trump is handling his job as president?  Is he doing a very good job, somewhat good job, somewhat poor job, or very poor job?
 
1. Very good job. 24%
2. Somewhat good job. 24%
3. Somewhat poor job. 17%
4. Very poor job. 34%
5. DON’T KNOW / REFUSED / NA    0%

Combined approval: 48%
Combined disapproval: 52%

Source

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

TEXAS LYCEUM POLL:

How well do you think Donald Trump is handling his job as president?  Is he doing a very good job, somewhat good job, somewhat poor job, or very poor job?
 
1. Very good job. 24%
2. Somewhat good job. 24%
3. Somewhat poor job. 17%
4. Very poor job. 34%
5. DON’T KNOW / REFUSED / NA    0%

Combined approval: 48%
Combined disapproval: 52%

Source

No undecideds? Kinda weird.

Doesn't bode well for Trump, even if I think he'll win Texas.

[pbrower2a]

TEXAS LYCEUM POLL:

How well do you think Donald Trump is handling his job as president?  Is he doing a very good job, somewhat good job, somewhat poor job, or very poor job?
 
1. Very good job. 24%
2. Somewhat good job. 24%
3. Somewhat poor job. 17%
4. Very poor job. 34%
5. DON’T KNOW / REFUSED / NA    0%

Combined approval: 48%
Combined disapproval: 52%

Source

 

Much more credible to me than the last poll that I saw of Texas.
 

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Aug. 15-30, 1500 adults (prior poll Aug. 1-14)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is the worst Gallup result for Trump since their early March poll, which had the same numbers.

[ProudModerate2]

Gallup, Aug. 15-30, 1500 adults (prior poll Aug. 1-14)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is the worst Gallup result for Trump since their early March poll, which had the same numbers.

Wow.
Looks about right, too.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup, Aug. 15-30, 1500 adults (prior poll Aug. 1-14)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is the worst Gallup result for Trump since their early March poll, which had the same numbers.

He cannot win with numbers like those. 

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Gallup, Aug. 15-30, 1500 adults (prior poll Aug. 1-14)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is the worst Gallup result for Trump since their early March poll, which had the same numbers.

He cannot win with numbers like those. 

His favorable rating was 21 points underwater on election day 2016.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Aug. 15-30, 1500 adults (prior poll Aug. 1-14)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is the worst Gallup result for Trump since their early March poll, which had the same numbers.

He cannot win with numbers like those. 

His favorable rating was 21 points underwater on election day 2016.

Favorability of an outside candidate isn't directly comparable to approval of an incumbent.

[pbrower2a]

Gallup, Aug. 15-30, 1500 adults (prior poll Aug. 1-14)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is the worst Gallup result for Trump since their early March poll, which had the same numbers.

He cannot win with numbers like those. 

His favorable rating was 21 points underwater on election day 2016.

Donald Trump was not so much a known quantity in 2016 as he is now. People who have since come to despise him are not going to vote for him in a free and fair election.

Disapproval means giving up.   

[roxas11]

Gallup, Aug. 15-30, 1500 adults (prior poll Aug. 1-14)

Approve 39 (-2)
Disapprove 57 (+3)

This is the worst Gallup result for Trump since their early March poll, which had the same numbers.

He cannot win with numbers like those.  

His favorable rating was 21 points underwater on election day 2016.

there is big difference between a then Controversial candidate having those type of Numbers vs a Sitting president who has been in office for 4 years

Trump was radial radical change candidate in 2016 and even people who hated him were at least willing to give him a shot since He represented a radical change from last 8 years

Now Trump is president and is no longer seen as the radical change candidate he was back then
Im sorry to say but if Trump is 21 points underwater on election day 2020 he is not getting reelected

[GeorgiaModerate]

ABC News/Washington Post, Sep. 2-5, 1003 adults including 877 RV (change from early July)

Adults:

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

R: 82/14 (strongly 66/9)
I: 36/58 (strongly 23/49)
D: 8/90 (strongly 3/80)


RV:

Approve 40
Disapprove 55

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 47

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1171394961423654917

[Person Man]

ABC News/Washington Post, Sep. 2-5, 1003 adults including 877 RV (change from early July)

Adults:

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

R: 82/14 (strongly 66/9)
I: 36/58 (strongly 23/49)
D: 8/90 (strongly 3/80)


RV:

Approve 40
Disapprove 55

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 47

He basically went from being mildly unpopular to being quite unpopular. This could just be an outlier, though.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

ABC News/Washington Post, Sep. 2-5, 1003 adults including 877 RV (change from early July)

Adults:

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

R: 82/14 (strongly 66/9)
I: 36/58 (strongly 23/49)
D: 8/90 (strongly 3/80)


RV:

Approve 40
Disapprove 55

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 47

He basically went from being mildly unpopular to being quite unpopular. This could just be an outlier, though.

Gallup backed up these numbers a couple posts up. An encouraging trend, but I doubt it holds up unless these negative economic sentiments among the population hold true.

[Person Man]

ABC News/Washington Post, Sep. 2-5, 1003 adults including 877 RV (change from early July)

Adults:

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

R: 82/14 (strongly 66/9)
I: 36/58 (strongly 23/49)
D: 8/90 (strongly 3/80)


RV:

Approve 40
Disapprove 55

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 47

He basically went from being mildly unpopular to being quite unpopular. This could just be an outlier, though.

Gallup backed up these numbers a couple posts up. An encouraging trend, but I doubt it holds up unless these negative economic sentiments among the population hold true.

The only way Trump wins is that the economy restabilizes despite high debt, overpriced equities, high tariffs, political instability, and limited competition. The way that happens is either the banks have been able to sell more debt than ever or technology is really beginning to change the way things work in interesting ways. Maybe automation tamed inflation in ways that allow for unlimited public debt, helicopter economics, and stimulus.

[pbrower2a]

ABC News/Washington Post, Sep. 2-5, 1003 adults including 877 RV (change from early July)

Adults:

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

R: 82/14 (strongly 66/9)
I: 36/58 (strongly 23/49)
D: 8/90 (strongly 3/80)


RV:

Approve 40
Disapprove 55

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 47

He basically went from being mildly unpopular to being quite unpopular. This could just be an outlier, though.

Gallup backed up these numbers a couple posts up. An encouraging trend, but I doubt it holds up unless these negative economic sentiments among the population hold true.

The only way Trump wins is that the economy restabilizes despite high debt, overpriced equities, high tariffs, political instability, and limited competition. The way that happens is either the banks have been able to sell more debt than ever or technology is really beginning to change the way things work in interesting ways. Maybe automation tamed inflation in ways that allow for unlimited public debt, helicopter economics, and stimulus.

Any banker can sell debt. There's always some fool who has some insane plan for making a huge amount of money fast  with little effort... competent  bankers ask where the collateral is, and the would-be borrower quips "Who needs collateral?", and rejects the borrower. Technological change is largely improvements in what people already have, and people are not going to spend big money for subtle improvements unless they are already flush with cash. With the unusually-high level of economic inequality that we have, there are still retailers selling DVD video of current feature films -- and in prosperous times, obsolete technologies die.

In view of the inverted yield curve, I would expect a slowdown because people are not going to borrow short for such things as remodeling, new cars, or appliances except out of need. We are practically due for an economic meltdown such as those of 1929 or 2007 (those two were much the same for a year and a half), and so far the only economic stewardship that President Trump has shown is to ride a tide.   

[Person Man]

ABC News/Washington Post, Sep. 2-5, 1003 adults including 877 RV (change from early July)

Adults:

Approve 38 (-6)
Disapprove 56 (+3)

Strongly approve 27 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 48 (+3)

R: 82/14 (strongly 66/9)
I: 36/58 (strongly 23/49)
D: 8/90 (strongly 3/80)


RV:

Approve 40
Disapprove 55

Strongly approve 31
Strongly disapprove 47

He basically went from being mildly unpopular to being quite unpopular. This could just be an outlier, though.

Gallup backed up these numbers a couple posts up. An encouraging trend, but I doubt it holds up unless these negative economic sentiments among the population hold true.

The only way Trump wins is that the economy restabilizes despite high debt, overpriced equities, high tariffs, political instability, and limited competition. The way that happens is either the banks have been able to sell more debt than ever or technology is really beginning to change the way things work in interesting ways. Maybe automation tamed inflation in ways that allow for unlimited public debt, helicopter economics, and stimulus.

Any banker can sell debt. There's always some fool who has some insane plan for making a huge amount of money fast  with little effort... competent  bankers ask where the collateral is, and the would-be borrower quips "Who needs collateral?", and rejects the borrower. Technological change is largely improvements in what people already have, and people are not going to spend big money for subtle improvements unless they are already flush with cash. With the unusually-high level of economic inequality that we have, there are still retailers selling DVD video of current feature films -- and in prosperous times, obsolete technologies die.

In view of the inverted yield curve, I would expect a slowdown because people are not going to borrow short for such things as remodeling, new cars, or appliances except out of need. We are practically due for an economic meltdown such as those of 1929 or 2007 (those two were much the same for a year and a half), and so far the only economic stewardship that President Trump has shown is to ride a tide.   

I'm not talking about consumption, I'm talking about the production and distribution. That has made things really cheap. Maybe the trade war will blow that smithereens futurists weren't kidding when they talking about how technology was going to change things. Moore's Law looks like it could go on for another 5 years. Maybe that will cause economic problems. That is, when the demand for technological capability finally outstrips its supply.