Trump approval ratings thread 1.5

[GeorgiaModerate]

I almost didn't post this one, but figured we could use some comedy relief...

Zogby, Aug. 9-12, 897 "likely voters"

Approve 51
Disapprove 47

Strongly approve 27
Strongly disapprove 37

Some tidbits:

Besides a good economy, Trump's good approval rating is being driven by a surge in popularity among voters living in the South and Central regions, Independents, Millennials, suburban men, urban men, and older voters. Trump's approval rating has improved with minorities-28% of African Americans and 49% of Hispanics at least somewhat approve of the president-both very good numbers, historically, for Trump.

Trump has recently seen a spike in support among large and small city voters-more than half of each group approves of the president. Trump is also polling well among urban women, but has seen his support from suburban women take a beating. It will be interesting to see if the rise in support among urban women can blunt the decreased support among women in the suburbs.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I almost didn't post this one, but figured we could use some comedy relief...

Zogby, Aug. 9-12, 897 "likely voters"

Approve 51
Disapprove 47

Strongly approve 27
Strongly disapprove 37

Some tidbits:

Besides a good economy, Trump's good approval rating is being driven by a surge in popularity among voters living in the South and Central regions, Independents, Millennials, suburban men, urban men, and older voters. Trump's approval rating has improved with minorities-28% of African Americans and 49% of Hispanics at least somewhat approve of the president-both very good numbers, historically, for Trump.

Trump has recently seen a spike in support among large and small city voters-more than half of each group approves of the president. Trump is also polling well among urban women, but has seen his support from suburban women take a beating. It will be interesting to see if the rise in support among urban women can blunt the decreased support among women in the suburbs.

And I bet 538 laps it right up.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I almost didn't post this one, but figured we could use some comedy relief...

Zogby, Aug. 9-12, 897 "likely voters"

Approve 51
Disapprove 47

Strongly approve 27
Strongly disapprove 37

Some tidbits:

Besides a good economy, Trump's good approval rating is being driven by a surge in popularity among voters living in the South and Central regions, Independents, Millennials, suburban men, urban men, and older voters. Trump's approval rating has improved with minorities-28% of African Americans and 49% of Hispanics at least somewhat approve of the president-both very good numbers, historically, for Trump.

Trump has recently seen a spike in support among large and small city voters-more than half of each group approves of the president. Trump is also polling well among urban women, but has seen his support from suburban women take a beating. It will be interesting to see if the rise in support among urban women can blunt the decreased support among women in the suburbs.

And I bet 538 laps it right up.

Yes, they did, and with a fairly high weight since it purports to be a LV poll.

[Sir Mohamed]

LOL Zogby

[Person Man]

LOL Zogby

It actually brought his approval rating up from -12 to -11 which is probably about where it should be. Nothing has really changed since he first got elected. If he were "a real president" who just talked about forcing people to be free and how important it was to be religious (like the Bushes or Reagan), he would probably be either even or at +6. Instead he picks fight with people, says racist things and then claims he is the victim rather than the perpetrator of racism. On the other hand, if he were still Trump and all of the sudden business couldn't pay all the loans they have been getting back because people can't afford all the mark ups on their stuff because of the tariffs, he will probably go down to like where he was when he couldn't pass his tax bill.

[ProudModerate2]

LOL Zogby

Has trump commented about it yet?
Maybe today he will.
(What a joke.)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Gallup, Aug. 1-14, 1522 adults (2-week change)

Approve 41 (-1)
Disapprove 54 (nc)

On issues:

Economy 53/46
Education 44/50
Foreign affairs 41/57
Race relations 34/64

[GeorgiaModerate]

Pew Research, July 22-Aug. 4, 4175 adults

Approve 40
Disapprove 59

No change from their previous poll, Apr. 29-May 13

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1162584719957082113

[GeorgiaModerate]

And another high-quality pollster weighs in...

NBC/WSJ, Aug. 10-14, 1000 adults (1-month change)

Approve 43 (-2)
Disapprove 55 (+3)

Strongly approve 29 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 46 (+4)

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1163081384640024576

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/NumbersMuncher/status/1163081384640024576

Another reassuring piece of data. I really hope it lasts until next November.

[pbrower2a]

It is reassuring to know that Americans recognize the danger of hate speech when officials express it repeatedly or incessantly.

[junior chįmp]

One really has to wonder what Trump's approval would look like with a recession thrown in to the mix

[GeorgiaModerate]

One really has to wonder what Trump's approval would look like with a recession thrown in to the mix

There's a nontrivial chance that we're going to find out.

[ProudModerate2]

Ipsos
JUL 16-22, 2019
3,879 RV

Approve 44%
Disapprove 54%

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/12/4809/4766/Topline%20Reuters%20Race%20Poll.pdf

Odd that the poll was conducted back in mid-July, and they are just now releasing the results.
Does anyone know why?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos
JUL 16-22, 2019
3,879 RV

Approve 44%
Disapprove 54%

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/12/4809/4766/Topline%20Reuters%20Race%20Poll.pdf

Odd that the poll was conducted back in mid-July, and they are just now releasing the results.
Does anyone know why?

Looks like it was for this story about voters' racial attitudes that was just released today: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-race-poll/for-trump-appeals-to-white-fears-about-race-may-be-a-tougher-sell-in-2020-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN1V90TX.  The approval question is secondary.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Unhappy with the result, Trump says there is "something going on" with the Fox poll:

"Well, Fox has always given me -- I'll tell you, Fox is a lot different than it used to be, I can tell you that. ... Fox has changed. And my worst polls have always been from Fox. There's something going on at Fox, I'll tell you right now. And I'm not happy with it."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/19/politics/donald-trump-fox-news/index.html

As I posted in another thread, this is the Trump filter:

Good numbers for Trump = real.  Bad numbers for Trump = fake.

It applies to polls, economic news, or anything else.

[ProudModerate2]

Ipsos
JUL 16-22, 2019
3,879 RV

Approve 44%
Disapprove 54%

https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/12/4809/4766/Topline%20Reuters%20Race%20Poll.pdf

Odd that the poll was conducted back in mid-July, and they are just now releasing the results.
Does anyone know why?

Looks like it was for this story about voters' racial attitudes that was just released today: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-race-poll/for-trump-appeals-to-white-fears-about-race-may-be-a-tougher-sell-in-2020-reuters-ipsos-poll-idUSKCN1V90TX.  The approval question is secondary.

Ahhh, Ok. That makes sense.
Thank you for the info.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A poll of a key demographic: suburban women.

Public Opinion Strategies (R), Aug. 7-8, 530 women RV in CO-6, KS-3, NC-9, PA-1, and VA-10

Approve 35
Disapprove 61

Strongly approve 27
Strongly disapprove 55

GCB: D 51, R 33 (42/25 "definitely")

U.S. going in the right direction 28
U.S. on the wrong track 65

Trump approval among white women (n=~430): 40/56 (31/50 strongly)

Trump approval among independent women (n=~130): 32/63 (19/55 strongly) CAUTION: small subsample size

[GeorgiaModerate]

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, Aug. 13-14, 600 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 52

In their previous poll (May), approval was 50 but I don't have the disapproval number.  In October, it was 54/46.

[Inmate Trump]

Unhappy with the result, Trump says there is "something going on" with the Fox poll:

"Well, Fox has always given me -- I'll tell you, Fox is a lot different than it used to be, I can tell you that. ... Fox has changed. And my worst polls have always been from Fox. There's something going on at Fox, I'll tell you right now. And I'm not happy with it."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/19/politics/donald-trump-fox-news/index.html

As I posted in another thread, this is the Trump filter:

Good numbers for Trump = real.  Bad numbers for Trump = fake.

It applies to polls, economic news, or anything else.

The delusion isn't limited to Trump himself, but to many of his supporters.  I just don't get the madness.  It's got to be some kind of mental illness on those supporters who claim falsehoods at fact.

[Person Man]

Unhappy with the result, Trump says there is "something going on" with the Fox poll:

"Well, Fox has always given me -- I'll tell you, Fox is a lot different than it used to be, I can tell you that. ... Fox has changed. And my worst polls have always been from Fox. There's something going on at Fox, I'll tell you right now. And I'm not happy with it."

https://www.cnn.com/2019/08/19/politics/donald-trump-fox-news/index.html

As I posted in another thread, this is the Trump filter:

Good numbers for Trump = real.  Bad numbers for Trump = fake.

It applies to polls, economic news, or anything else.

The delusion isn't limited to Trump himself, but to many of his supporters.  I just don't get the madness.  It's got to be some kind of mental illness on those supporters who claim falsehoods at fact.

Maybe they are on to something or maybe that something is able to make those delusions so.

[pbrower2a]

Arizona: OH Predictive Insights, Aug. 13-14, 600 LV

Approve 47
Disapprove 52

In their previous poll (May), approval was 50 but I don't have the disapproval number.  In October, it was 54/46.

If Wisconsin does not defeat Trump, then Arizona will. Think of Virginia in 2008 as a state drifting D, if for different reasons. This pollster has usually been likely to show sunny results for Trump. The only sunshine for the Trump campaign in the summer of 2020 will be the hot, brutal desert sun in the one giant metro area (Phoenix) and the other significant one (Tucson).  

Emerson, Colorado:
  

In the state, President Trump’s job approval is 54% disapproval / 39% approval. Trump’s approval with Republicans remains strong at 80%, his support is demonstrated in a potential primary match up against former MA Gov. Bill Weld where he leads 86% to 14% (n=339, +/- 5.3%). However, among Independents, Trump’s disapproval is at 57% and his approval is at 34%, contributing to his poor head to head performance against all of his top Democratic challengers. Currently, he is losing the state by larger margins against 4 of his 5 top Democratic challengers than in 2016 when Clinton won the state 48% to 43%.

https://emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/pr/colorado-2020-sanders-biden-and-warren-lead-democratic-field-democrats-look-to-gain-senate-seat

No change in the state map here -- the last one was on the previous page. It's about time for another poll of Wisconsin, as I keep hearing people say that Wisconsin offers a good chance for Trump to hold the Presidency. Well, he must also win Arizona. In 2012, Barack Obama never won a state in which a credible pollster gave him disapproval over 51%. This one is credible for showing a rosy picture for Republicans most of the time. The current President is not as crafty a politician as Obama, and there is no evidence that he can do the damage control necessary for getting re-elected. Oh, does he have damage to control, as the polling numbers show in a state that he absolutely, positively must win if he is to be re-elected.

I'd like to see another poll of Wisconsin, as the latest one is getting as stale as cheese left out unwrapped for a week.  Colorado seems to be spiraling out of reach of Republicans as did the Louisiana-to-West Virginia arc about fifteen years ago.     

Trump approval:

40% or less or disapproval over 52%
41-44% or disapproval over 50%
45-49% and negative


Note: these are colored green to the same shade if I believe that an independent or third-party nominee has a chance to win the state, but a Democrat has no meaningful chance. That is Utah for now.

tie (white)
45-49% and positive
50-54%
55% or higher

[GeorgiaModerate]

Colorado: Emerson, Aug. 16-19, 1000 RV

Approve 39
Disapprove 54

R: 80/11
D: 9/90
I: 34/57