Why was Obamas position in Ohio in 2012 considered so strong

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

There were people who seemed to believe that he was better positioned in Ohio than he was in many other states that were very obviously better for the Democrats in both 2008 and 2012.

Here is a list of states Sabato Crystal Ball thought were worse for Obama than Ohio at some point in the last week that turned out to actually be better for Obama than Ohio:

New Hampshire
Wisconsin
Iowa
Colorado

In these states, Sabato waited until the day before the Election to move the state to Lean D while he had Ohio at Lean D since September.

Virginia

In this state, Sabato waited until the day before the Election to move the state, and he moved the state to Lean R, not Lean D, which was incorrect.

There really was no good reason to think that Obama was in a stronger position in Ohio in 2012 than he was in any of the states on this list, yet Sabato seemed to think Obama was better positioned in Ohio than he was in all of these states.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It’s easy with hindsight to critique the conventional wisdom at the time given how hard Ohio swung right after 2012. But there was no reason at the time to believe that Obama’s position in OH wasn’t better than his position in states like VA and NH. As OSR said Obama consistently led in polls here (which turned out to be very accurate) while Romney was overestimated elsewhere. Romney’s auto bailout comments turned swing voters against him early in OH more so than states with weaker ties to the auto industry and that manifested itself in the polls.

I went into election night in 2012 expecting Obama to carry all of his 2008 states minus Indiana (which everyone expected Obama to lose), North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio.

It took no hindsight bias for me to see Obama in a worse position in Ohio than in all those other states, as I believed it was the case before any votes were cast.

I was half right; I underestimated Obama overall, but I had Ohio in the correct place relative to the national picture. I even correctly predicted Obama winning Virginia which Sabato foolishly expected Romney to win.