Why was Obamas position in Ohio in 2012 considered so strong
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  Why was Obamas position in Ohio in 2012 considered so strong
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America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS
Solid4096
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« on: April 09, 2019, 04:37:55 PM »

There were people who seemed to believe that he was better positioned in Ohio than he was in many other states that were very obviously better for the Democrats in both 2008 and 2012.

Here is a list of states Sabato Crystal Ball thought were worse for Obama than Ohio at some point in the last week that turned out to actually be better for Obama than Ohio:

New Hampshire
Wisconsin
Iowa
Colorado

In these states, Sabato waited until the day before the Election to move the state to Lean D while he had Ohio at Lean D since September.

Virginia

In this state, Sabato waited until the day before the Election to move the state, and he moved the state to Lean R, not Lean D, which was incorrect.

There really was no good reason to think that Obama was in a stronger position in Ohio in 2012 than he was in any of the states on this list, yet Sabato seemed to think Obama was better positioned in Ohio than he was in all of these states.
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Computer89
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« Reply #1 on: April 09, 2019, 04:46:28 PM »

He polled better in OH than he did in FL , VA, CO and even when he trailed Romney nationally he led in almost every OH poll.

It was thanks to Obama's strong position in OH that he was able to be constantly on the offensive(with the exception of the period between Debate 1 and the VP debate/2nd Debate when Romney surged). And it was that strong position that I would say allowed him to win reelection, without that strong position Romney would have been able to play offense more while Obama would be more on the defensive.
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Obama-Biden Democrat
Zyzz
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« Reply #2 on: April 09, 2019, 06:45:11 PM »

It seemed like OH might trend Dem long term in 2012, with the trends in Cincinnati and Columbus favoring them, while the Dems stayed strong in NE Ohio and other WWC areas like Toledo and other counties on Lake Erie.
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FalloutBoy97
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« Reply #3 on: April 09, 2019, 06:46:50 PM »

It’s easy with hindsight to critique the conventional wisdom at the time given how hard Ohio swung right after 2012. But there was no reason at the time to believe that Obama’s position in OH wasn’t better than his position in states like VA and NH. As OSR said Obama consistently led in polls here (which turned out to be very accurate) while Romney was overestimated elsewhere. Romney’s auto bailout comments turned swing voters against him early in OH more so than states with weaker ties to the auto industry and that manifested itself in the polls.
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« Reply #4 on: April 09, 2019, 07:38:18 PM »

It’s easy with hindsight to critique the conventional wisdom at the time given how hard Ohio swung right after 2012. But there was no reason at the time to believe that Obama’s position in OH wasn’t better than his position in states like VA and NH. As OSR said Obama consistently led in polls here (which turned out to be very accurate) while Romney was overestimated elsewhere. Romney’s auto bailout comments turned swing voters against him early in OH more so than states with weaker ties to the auto industry and that manifested itself in the polls.

And it was Obama's lead in OH which allowed him to win states like FL and even VA/NH as Romney was forced to spend way too keep spending resources in OH while Obama could spread those resources further.

I do think though if Ryan was able to win that VP debate and Romney that 2nd debate Romney could have possibly won OH, VA and maybe win the Presidency as the momentum would have stayed in his camp.
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Frozen Sky Ever Why
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« Reply #5 on: April 09, 2019, 08:32:15 PM »

There was a strong anti-Republican backlash in OH in late 2011 against RTW.
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Annatar
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« Reply #6 on: April 09, 2019, 09:04:32 PM »

Obama was strong in Ohio partially due to the fact that the Romney campaign seems to have been an utter disaster, in Ohio Romney received 16,000 fewer votes then Mccain, how he managed to achieve that outcome must remain a mystery. The fact that Romney got 16,000 fewer votes then Mccain is Ohio tells you pretty much everything you need to know about Ohio and the 2012 election as a whole.

Interestingly enough, there were counties in southern Ohio that swung more democratic from 2008-2012 only to swing by huge margins to Trump. Gallia county for example swung swung to Obama in 2012 and then swung by 30% towards Trump.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #7 on: April 10, 2019, 04:00:24 AM »

There was likely something showing up in various internal polls and data sources that suggested OH was - in relative terms - moving much less against Obama than many other states. WI and MI swung 7 points to Romney, NV swung 6, PA and NH swung 5, & CO swung 4. In the end, OH only swung 1.5 points to Romney, making it the swing state with the smallest losses margin-wise for Obama when compared to 2008.

Chances are they saw OH as the true bellwether: by being in a good position there, it indicated that the remaining swing states would hold. By being in a bad position, the game was already lost.

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Solid4096
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« Reply #8 on: April 11, 2019, 06:48:01 PM »

It’s easy with hindsight to critique the conventional wisdom at the time given how hard Ohio swung right after 2012. But there was no reason at the time to believe that Obama’s position in OH wasn’t better than his position in states like VA and NH. As OSR said Obama consistently led in polls here (which turned out to be very accurate) while Romney was overestimated elsewhere. Romney’s auto bailout comments turned swing voters against him early in OH more so than states with weaker ties to the auto industry and that manifested itself in the polls.

I went into election night in 2012 expecting Obama to carry all of his 2008 states minus Indiana (which everyone expected Obama to lose), North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio.

It took no hindsight bias for me to see Obama in a worse position in Ohio than in all those other states, as I believed it was the case before any votes were cast.

I was half right; I underestimated Obama overall, but I had Ohio in the correct place relative to the national picture. I even correctly predicted Obama winning Virginia which Sabato foolishly expected Romney to win.
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bagelman
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« Reply #9 on: April 12, 2019, 11:17:06 AM »

Jobs, jobs, jobs.

Romney created Bain Capital which outsourced jobs. Trump ran as a protectionist against a terrible nominee unable to divorce herself from globalist (pro-outsourcing) interests.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #10 on: April 22, 2019, 10:58:38 PM »

It’s easy with hindsight to critique the conventional wisdom at the time given how hard Ohio swung right after 2012. But there was no reason at the time to believe that Obama’s position in OH wasn’t better than his position in states like VA and NH. As OSR said Obama consistently led in polls here (which turned out to be very accurate) while Romney was overestimated elsewhere. Romney’s auto bailout comments turned swing voters against him early in OH more so than states with weaker ties to the auto industry and that manifested itself in the polls.

I went into election night in 2012 expecting Obama to carry all of his 2008 states minus Indiana (which everyone expected Obama to lose), North Carolina, Florida, and Ohio.

It took no hindsight bias for me to see Obama in a worse position in Ohio than in all those other states, as I believed it was the case before any votes were cast.

I was half right; I underestimated Obama overall, but I had Ohio in the correct place relative to the national picture. I even correctly predicted Obama winning Virginia which Sabato foolishly expected Romney to win.

Sabato actually picked VA because he literally just tossed a coin and gave CO+NH to obama and gave the other 13 "tossup" EVs to Romney.
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