Why was Obamas position in Ohio in 2012 considered so strong

[OSR stands with Israel]

He polled better in OH than he did in FL , VA, CO and even when he trailed Romney nationally he led in almost every OH poll.

It was thanks to Obama's strong position in OH that he was able to be constantly on the offensive(with the exception of the period between Debate 1 and the VP debate/2nd Debate when Romney surged). And it was that strong position that I would say allowed him to win reelection, without that strong position Romney would have been able to play offense more while Obama would be more on the defensive.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It’s easy with hindsight to critique the conventional wisdom at the time given how hard Ohio swung right after 2012. But there was no reason at the time to believe that Obama’s position in OH wasn’t better than his position in states like VA and NH. As OSR said Obama consistently led in polls here (which turned out to be very accurate) while Romney was overestimated elsewhere. Romney’s auto bailout comments turned swing voters against him early in OH more so than states with weaker ties to the auto industry and that manifested itself in the polls.

And it was Obama's lead in OH which allowed him to win states like FL and even VA/NH as Romney was forced to spend way too keep spending resources in OH while Obama could spread those resources further.

I do think though if Ryan was able to win that VP debate and Romney that 2nd debate Romney could have possibly won OH, VA and maybe win the Presidency as the momentum would have stayed in his camp.