BIDEN - STACY ABRAMS strategy Part II (?) ...based on Abrams weekend interview

[SCNCmod]

Wondering if anyone else had similar thoughts from Abrams saying she wouldn't have to decide Plans until late summer/ early fall? (considering announcing a Pres run so late would give her no viable chance whatsoever at winning... & obviously would mean giving up a decent shot at Senate).

The Starting Point: Biden has the most to lose if he enters the Primary & doesn't win...his legacy (He's been a US Senator since he was 31 years old, Then 8 years as VP).  He does not want to go down being known for losing a Dem Primary... and you can be sure he will not enter if he isn't confident to a high % of probability that he will win.  And his team has thought through all scenarios and potential weakness. (And I'm sure they realized that given how the first 4 states decide who goes forward- Biden has big risk in each state, and that winning SC, is his best insurance policy... outlined below).

So I still think there is strategy/ game play going on between Biden & Abrams teams.  In an interview this weekend- Abrams said if she decided to get it- she could wait until as late as early fall "b/c people do not pay attention until then".  

Although the latter part of this statement is true- Abrams is without a doubt, politically savvy enough to know that anyone with a realistic chance and the nomination would have to structurally have teams in place and active long before the fall (especially this year & especially someone who would not be a presumptive front runner).  I have never heard a politician say you can wait until the fall to get into a presidential election.  

So the only single logical takeaway I could come up with...

When it was leaked (floated is more apt) that serious talks had happened between Biden/Abrams --- This idea was not well received  & especially looked bad for Abrams (with every one saying if she wants to run she should run... not join a side ticket with Biden).

So the possible follow up strategy to the very possible situation of Biden entering SC as his must win state, with the potential that polls may show Biden/Kamala in a tight battle for SC?  (Kamala will campaign hard in SC... b/c if she loses SC, it will  likely end her campaign).

Iowa: Biden got 1% of the Iowa vote in 2008- he knows that Iowa certainly isn't a state for him to count on & a state where its more likely than not, that the early poll leader will not win.

NH: Bernie is already beating Biden in the 2 most recent polls

NV: Biden has no reason to be especially strong in NV, especially if he loses Iowa & NH.  This is also a state ripe for a surge from someone like Beto (El Paso is 3 hours from the AZ border, so Beto is from that region & he shows some relative early strength there compare to his other state polling).

So Biden knows SC could easily be a make or break for him.  A state that although he leads in polls, has a Dem primary makeup that is 61% AA. Which makes Kamala a big potential threat. (and the latest SC poll show that Abrams would obviously take votes away from Kamala).

So if in late summer (once the campaign is really in full swing with debates etc)... Polls start showing a tight race in SC between Biden & Kamala... Abrams could jump in late help deliver Biden a victory in SC- which would be a huge boost going forward.  And after the first 4 primaries- if Kamala doesn't win SC, she will likely not be a factor moving forward, so Abrams could drop out and throw support to Biden.

Abrams could wait until late summer to jump in the Senate race, with no problem.  So it seems like a practical decision- wait until late summer to see how the Presidential Primary is progressing & if Biden were to need her to get in the race.. then decide: (Which is the better risk- Help potentially be a Biden saviour & eventually his VP if he wins.... or Jump in the Senate Race).

***A side note--> its funny to consider the age timelines in this Primary: Biden was elected to the Senate the month after Beto was born and 10 years before Pete was born. And Biden isn't even the oldest candidate in the race (Bernie).  On the flip side, Pete was born in 1982- which will sound shocking to some older voters.  And bringing it back to Abrams- she was born 2 months after Biden was elected Senator.