Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/WisVoter/status/1247711713035771904?s=20

[Gass3268]

This means that purely based on absentee ballots received by 8:00 PM CT, turnout was better than the 2013 and 2015 Supreme Court elections. Also with the absentee ballots that will still come in before 4/13, it's pretty clear the numbers will surpass 2018.

The question now is what will the day of turnout be. If I had to guess, turnout will pass last year's number of 1,207,569 but won't get to the 1,500,113 of 2011 or 1,953,147 of 2016.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

https://twitter.com/EoinHiggins_/status/1247354993142837249

Huh...

https://twitter.com/fliedgaff/status/1247583871106875393?s=21

Of course Biden hacks didn't bother to mention that they are not promoting in person voting. Here's what the script says.

We’re calling today to let you know that there is still an election happening in Wisconsin, and I have good news for you - vote by mail is available in Wisconsin, which means everyone will be able to vote. Do you support Bernie in today's election?

https://desktop.thrutalk.io/candidate/bernie-wi-statewide

[Gass3268]

Turnout in the City of Milwaukee was better than last year (68,770):

https://twitter.com/MSpicuzzaMJS/status/1247741770236145664?s=20

Add the absentee ballots:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1247744636321296384?s=20

The average turnout for the City of Milwaukee for competative Supreme Court elections in the prior decade was 79,680, so it looks like they are going to nail that number or even go over.

[Xing]

^Encouraging, but Karofsky will probably need Dane turnout to be very high to offset high turnout in WOW, even if rural WI turnout is low.

[Gass3268]

^Encouraging, but Karofsky will probably need Dane turnout to be very high to offset high turnout in WOW, even if rural WI turnout is low.

The good news there is Madison is still counting votes.

https://twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1247763328572637184?s=20

Also based on just the absentee reports from 8:00 PM, Dane County saw the biggest increase in the % their vote is of the total statewide vote. Based on the average it is typically 11.97%, this year it was 14.38%. An increase of 2.41%. Waukesha is second with an increase of 2.31% and Washington third at 0.74% and Milwaukee in 4th at 0.68%.

[windjammer]

I know this is very unlikely but I would laugh so hard if the dems manage to pull it off.

[wbrocks67]

^Encouraging, but Karofsky will probably need Dane turnout to be very high to offset high turnout in WOW, even if rural WI turnout is low.

There were more polling stations open in Dane, right?

[ElectionsGuy]

I know this is very unlikely but I would laugh so hard if the dems manage to pull it off.

It's not very unlikely. Karofsky can pull off a narrow win. What we saw in the February primary where Kelly got 50% was relatively high turnout in Dane/Milwaukee but very pro-Kelly margins in rural Wisconsin. Thus far the absentee turnout is high in WOW, but also decently high in Dane/Milwaukee, lower in much of northern and western Wisconsin. If the turnout patterns are just a little more favorable to Dems, Karofksy can win. Although I'm skeptical because I would think rural areas are more likely to vote in person than urban/suburban areas, so there are variables that we don't know yet. Thus far I think people here may be actually underestimating Karofsky's chances to win out of pessimism.

[ElectionsGuy]

^Encouraging, but Karofsky will probably need Dane turnout to be very high to offset high turnout in WOW, even if rural WI turnout is low.

There were more polling stations open in Dane, right?

Yes, well off liberal whites get 66 polling locations in Dane but poor blacks in Milwaukee get 5.

[Intell]

^Encouraging, but Karofsky will probably need Dane turnout to be very high to offset high turnout in WOW, even if rural WI turnout is low.

There were more polling stations open in Dane, right?

Yes, well off liberal whites get 66 polling locations in Dane but poor blacks in Milwaukee get 5.

Dane is not universally well-off with it's periphery suburbs and even the poor young people that reside there, but yes wtf is the discrepancy?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1247818110524162049?s=21

This is better then I thought it would be in Madison, could get bit better too as the week progresses.

[redjohn]

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1247818110524162049?s=21

This is better then I thought it would be in Madison, could get bit better too as the week progresses.

Hopefully it continues to rises. If Karofsky gets ~80% of the vote here and rural turnout is lower, she could maybe pull it off. Fingers crossed.

[Bidenworth2020]

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247800837889351682

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247901803980582912

[Dr. Arch]

^Encouraging, but Karofsky will probably need Dane turnout to be very high to offset high turnout in WOW, even if rural WI turnout is low.

There were more polling stations open in Dane, right?

Yes, well off liberal whites get 66 polling locations in Dane but poor blacks in Milwaukee get 5.

Dane is not universally well-off with it's periphery suburbs and even the poor young people that reside there, but yes wtf is the discrepancy?

Preparation for last minute shifts, most likely. Dane has always been quick and efficient in its responses to externally enforced changes.

I think that this is an example of the advantages of good and well-structured local governance.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247800837889351682

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247901803980582912

Yeah, turnout in the rurals for absentees was bad, but it wouldn't take much on election day for those numbers to be close to normal.

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247800837889351682
https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247901803980582912

Yeah, turnout in the rurals for absentees was bad, but it wouldn't take much on election day for those numbers to be close to normal.

If absentees are down by THAT much across the board in an election where the proportional share of absentee votes is way up due to the current health crisis, I don't expect in-person voting to even come close to making up for it.

[Upstater]

I would be laughing all day if Karofsky wins this one somehow.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Karofsky wins by the skin of her teeth, you can thank Bernie Sanders for staying in until Wisconsin voted, despite how endlessly members of this forum nonstop demanded he drop out sooner.

[Virginiá]

Doesn't really matter who wins, in my opinion. This election's legitimacy has been forever tainted due to the pandemic causing a severe drop in in-person polling stations in some areas, and thousands of absentee ballots never being sent to people who rightfully requested them. And all of this happening on such short notice, in addition to reckless obstruction from the WIGOP, gave little to no time for people to even try to find another safer way to vote.

[Badger]

If Karofsky wins by the skin of her teeth, you can thank Bernie Sanders for staying in until Wisconsin voted, despite how endlessly members of this forum nonstop demanded he drop out sooner.

No sarcasm, I will be the first to do so.

[ElectionsGuy]

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247800837889351682

https://twitter.com/CautiousLefty/status/1247901803980582912

After reviewing this and the cases of COVID-19 by county in Wisconsin, I'm decently convinced that far less % requested absentee because fewer people are afraid of catching the virus, and didn't feel the need to vote at home. Maybe that's wrong, but most of these counties have positive cases in single digits or none at all. And I imagine you don't have polling places swamped with absurd poll/person ratios like you do in Milwaukee, Green Bay, and Waukesha.

If I'm wrong and it correlates to the overall turnout %, Karofksy probably wins. If not, more likely Kelly.

[walleye26]

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1247818110524162049?s=21

This is better then I thought it would be in Madison, could get bit better too as the week progresses.

Hopefully it continues to rises. If Karofsky gets ~80% of the vote here and rural turnout is lower, she could maybe pull it off. Fingers crossed.

Does anybody know of the turnout number (50.3%) includes absentees sent out or the ones it’s received so far?

[Dr. Arch]

https://twitter.com/madisonwiclerk/status/1247818110524162049?s=21
This is better then I thought it would be in Madison, could get bit better too as the week progresses.

Hopefully it continues to rises. If Karofsky gets ~80% of the vote here and rural turnout is lower, she could maybe pull it off. Fingers crossed.

Does anybody know of the turnout number (50.3%) includes absentees sent out or the ones it’s received so far?

The ones received so far.

[walleye26]

According to an article I found on WEAU, as of 5pm yesterday turnout in the city of Eau Claire was 34.3% (including processed absentees)