Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[BG-NY]

While I don't think pro-life laws are a lost cause long term (or even short term in the South), it's clear that the midterm/off year electorate is reacting to Dobbs as if Republicans controlled the federal government and just passed major controversial right wing legislation, despite the president and congress at the time being Democratic.

This is an underrated and brilliant post. Voters like the party out of power, only when they're not *doing anything controversial*. Usually when you are out of power, your political capital is limited, and you can't pull this kind of nonsense. Same reason the GOP faced blowback during the Clinton impeachment.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BTW, please note that in the event Protasiewicz is successfully impeached, Evers would appoint a temporary replacement (and this individual would almost certainly be ideologically aligned with the liberals) and another election would be held for this seat next year.

That would be a blatantly stupid and partisan move that would almost certainly backfire.

I would imagine that the margin Janet is winning by would discourage them.

Yeah, impeaching the liberals on the court seems like a losing tactic for WIGOP as long as Evers is governor for the time being.

Until they have a winning strategy on abortion, Supreme Court elections are probably not winnable for them at all.

At the very least, it might be hard for literally all State Senate Rs to get on board, if it looks likely to give D opponents a strong argument for them to be voted out.

[kyc0705]

When is the last time that an incumbent party has performed so consistently well in an off-year?

[Skill and Chance]

BTW, please note that in the event Protasiewicz is successfully impeached, Evers would appoint a temporary replacement (and this individual would almost certainly be ideologically aligned with the liberals) and another election would be held for this seat next year.

That would be a blatantly stupid and partisan move that would almost certainly backfire.

I would imagine that the margin Janet is winning by would discourage them.

Yeah, impeaching the liberals on the court seems like a losing tactic for WIGOP as long as Evers is governor for the time being.

Until they have a winning strategy on abortion, Supreme Court elections are probably not winnable for them at all.

I mean if they went totally off the deep end, I suppose they could start by impeaching and removing Evers and going down the gubernatorial line of succession and doing the same until it reaches a Republican acting governor and then impeach and remove several of the liberal justices after that?

[OSR stands with Israel]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

LOL that's long gone. VA, NM, NV, and CO are not coming back

NV isn’t long gone lol but anyway if Nebraska Republicans didn’t play it safe in redistricting we could have gotten 269 without any of WI/MI/PA.

Anyway I said want not that it was possible

[LostFellow]

Imagine if all Democrats voted like Dane County; truly astonishing.

Perhaps you mean mid-to-large size cities? I don't understand what you mean considering that exit polls have always shown that self-identified Democrats vote for the democratic candidate by a greater than 90-10 margin in almost every single election.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

Cope and seethe.

[OSR stands with Israel]

What is the last off-year that an incumbent party has done so consistently well in?

Probably Bush in his first term

[ProgressiveModerate]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

LOL that's long gone. VA, NM, NV, and CO are not coming back

NV isn’t long gone lol but anyway if Nebraska Republicans didn’t play it safe in redistricting we could have gotten 269 without any of WI/MI/PA.

Anyway I said want not that it was possible

The Nebraska map lowkey pisses me off. It's a bad map but is a horrible gerrymander; it didn't actually make NE-02 any redder, and pushed NE-01 left. It's def not impossible Nebraska could get a 2D-1R delegation on this map if current shifts continue, even as Rs continue to win the PV in NE statewide by quite a bit.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think the Rs main problem in WI (which is partially revealed by this election) is that Ds continue to make gains while Rs lose ground in WOW. The WOW counties used to be (and still are) some of the biggest vote netters for the GOP, but they just are less powerful.

The GOP needs to continue to make further gains in rural areas faster than they have these past few years.

Is Wisconsin a reverse Florida?

The Wisconsin Democratic Party is a reverse of the Florida Dems, I suppose.

To be fair, it is not hard to be more competent that the FL Dems.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the last off-year that an incumbent party has done so consistently well in?

Probably Bush in his first term

Yeah.

[Sestak]

In SD 8, half of Richfield’s votes dropped. 75-25 R. There are still 4,000 votes left there, which should break 3,200-800 R. However, there are a couple wards in Brown Deer still out that are heavily D. This will be a nail biter.

This document indicates that all of Washington Co. portion is done. I think Richfield is split in the district; are you sure the outstanding isn't outside SD-08?

[Atlas Force]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

LOL that's long gone. VA, NM, NV, and CO are not coming back

NV isn’t long gone lol but anyway if Nebraska Republicans didn’t play it safe in redistricting we could have gotten 269 without any of WI/MI/PA.

Anyway I said want not that it was possible

It's def impossible Nebraska could get a 2D-1R delegation on this map if current shifts continue, even as Rs continue to win the PV in NE statewide by quite a bit.

Think you forgot to type a “not” between the second and third words there

[WalterWhite]

Please keep in mind that Wisconsin Supreme Court Elections often have wide margins. In 2020, for instance, the liberal Jill Karofsky defeated the conservative Daniel Kelly by 10.5%.

[Stockdale for Veep]

Looks like Menominee County lost their keys again.

[walleye26]

In SD 8, half of Richfield’s votes dropped. 75-25 R. There are still 4,000 votes left there, which should break 3,200-800 R. However, there are a couple wards in Brown Deer still out that are heavily D. This will be a nail biter.

This document indicates that all of Washington Co. portion is done. I think Richfield is split in the district; are you sure the outstanding isn't outside SD-08?

They dumped as I posted. It looks like Washington County’s portion of SD8 is nearly done, with a few precincts in Bayside and Brown deer left for Jodi (the D) to add.

[Duke of York]

BTW, please note that in the event Protasiewicz is successfully impeached, Evers would appoint a temporary replacement (and this individual would almost certainly be ideologically aligned with the liberals) and another election would be held for this seat next year.

That would be a blatantly stupid and partisan move that would almost certainly backfire.

I would imagine that the margin Janet is winning by would discourage them.

Yeah, impeaching the liberals on the court seems like a losing tactic for WIGOP as long as Evers is governor for the time being.

Until they have a winning strategy on abortion, Supreme Court elections are probably not winnable for them at all.

I wouldn't put it past them to try though.

[Steve from Lambeth]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

LOL that's long gone. VA, NM, NV, and CO are not coming back

NV isn’t long gone lol but anyway if Nebraska Republicans didn’t play it safe in redistricting we could have gotten 269 without any of WI/MI/PA.

Anyway I said want not that it was possible

Nebraska's 2nd is still perfectly winnable. Don Bacon knows how to do this. Shouldn't ask him about it here, though; this is the Wisconsin Megathread.

I don't want a coalition where we need Florida and Ohio respectively to get to 270. Thank goodness they're Likely R at worst.

[cg41386]

Looks like the AP is correcting itself, 91% in, but votes haven't changed.

[MT Treasurer]

The Trump people aren’t going to like hearing this, but this is not about high or low turnout. The record is clear: Trump-aligned/endorsed candidates have been losing races up and down the ballot in high-turnout, average-turnout and low-turnout elections since 2017. There is of course a host of other issues plaguing the party and its GE prospects (with most of them revolving around leadership, fundraising, ground operations, candidate recruitment, and detrimental party coalitions), but the Trump movement as a personality cult isn’t going to win you any election in any competitive, fast-growing state anywhere.

[WalterWhite]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

LOL that's long gone. VA, NM, NV, and CO are not coming back

What makes you say Nevada is a lost cause for Republicans? It only voted for Biden by 2%, and it only voted for Masto by 1%.

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

Curious to find out if any Obama x2 - Trump x2 counties in WI end up going for Protasiewicz. These results are based though. We might finally get some realistic maps out of the state...

[Ferguson97]

What is the last off-year that an incumbent party has done so consistently well in?

Probably Bush in his first term

And y'all had 9/11 to coast off of. That's how bad the modern GOP is.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

While I don't think pro-life laws are a lost cause long term (or even short term in the South), it's clear that the midterm/off year electorate is reacting to Dobbs as if Republicans controlled the federal government and just passed major controversial right wing legislation, despite the president and congress at the time being Democratic.

This is an underrated and brilliant post. Voters like the party out of power, only when they're not *doing anything controversial*. Usually when you are out of power, your political capital is limited, and you can't pull this kind of nonsense. Same reason the GOP faced blowback during the Clinton impeachment.

Yep. The right-wing SCOTUS is in a weird position right now where attempts to seriously challenge its own authority keep backfiring but its real and perceived overreaches are millstones around the necks of its allies in the elected branches--including many state judiciaries, as we're seeing!

[the artist formerly known as catmusic]

I want the Bush coalition back . The coalition where we didn’t need to win WI/MI/PA to get to 270 .

LOL that's long gone. VA, NM, NV, and CO are not coming back

What makes you say Nevada is a lost cause for Republicans? It only voted for Biden by 2%, and it only voted for Masto by 1%.

Nevada isn't a lost cause for Rs necessarily, but the other 3 are. And that won't get you to 270.