Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[Pollster]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

[wbrocks67]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Really frustrating too in the sense that if everyone knew the Barnes race would only be 1pt, I'm sure he would've been able to maximize resources and come up with some additional ideas to get that last 25-30k votes.

[Yoda]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Really frustrating too in the sense that if everyone knew the Barnes race would only be 1pt, I'm sure he would've been able to maximize resources and come up with some additional ideas to get that last 25-30k votes.

That race eats at me more than anything from the '22 elections. Ron Johnson is a traitor, a liar, a bigot, an election denier and a Putin simp. Getting rid of him would have been a big victory for the country and democracy in general.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/AdImpact_Pol/status/1628874836813414401

[Duke of York]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Thats excellent but they should have a turnout operation in every county. No county should be ignored.

[Ferguson97]

Lean D at a minimum.

[Blair]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Really frustrating too in the sense that if everyone knew the Barnes race would only be 1pt, I'm sure he would've been able to maximize resources and come up with some additional ideas to get that last 25-30k votes.

I haven’t done the maths but I really wonder whether the post September tightening saw a lot of resources go elsewhere- NV obviously needed it, but I wonder how much NH and some other house raises got.

It really was awful that Barnes got outspent in that time and iirc he didn’t have a huge lead in campaign cash to overturn the huge Super PAC spending against him.

[Continential]

Thanks for doing this. I was watching that jerk Let's Talk Elections YouTuber try to cover this race and describe the swing, and I almost screamed at the screen "Just show me the map with the sides added up!"

Why do you watch him in the first place?

[Pollster]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Thats excellent but they should have a turnout operation in every county. No county should be ignored.

Good idea in theory and morally, but with the way trends are going in most Wisconsin counties there's a good argument to be made that this hurts WisDems in the longrun more than it helps.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Really frustrating too in the sense that if everyone knew the Barnes race would only be 1pt, I'm sure he would've been able to maximize resources and come up with some additional ideas to get that last 25-30k votes.

I haven’t done the maths but I really wonder whether the post September tightening saw a lot of resources go elsewhere- NV obviously needed it, but I wonder how much NH and some other house raises got.

It really was awful that Barnes got outspent in that time and iirc he didn’t have a huge lead in campaign cash to overturn the huge Super PAC spending against him.

It really stings but despite how close it was, I don't think Barnes actually could have won. Johnson was more toxic than we thought

[Duke of York]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Thats excellent but they should have a turnout operation in every county. No county should be ignored.

Good idea in theory and morally, but with the way trends are going in most Wisconsin counties there's a good argument to be made that this hurts WisDems in the longrun more than it helps.

I disagree. I heard turnout in Eau Claire was three times as high as in November, That could have made a difference in the Senate election if it was combined with similar turnout rates in other college towns.

Georgia Dems have a turnout operation in every county. There is no reason Wisconsin can't.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Really frustrating too in the sense that if everyone knew the Barnes race would only be 1pt, I'm sure he would've been able to maximize resources and come up with some additional ideas to get that last 25-30k votes.

I haven’t done the maths but I really wonder whether the post September tightening saw a lot of resources go elsewhere- NV obviously needed it, but I wonder how much NH and some other house raises got.

It really was awful that Barnes got outspent in that time and iirc he didn’t have a huge lead in campaign cash to overturn the huge Super PAC spending against him.

It really stings but despite how close it was, I don't think Barnes actually could have won. Johnson was more toxic than we thought

Hard to say, but what is pretty clear is that Kind would’ve won had he run (assuming he could win the nomination).  I think Barnes might’ve won had he received significantly more outside support (maybe if the DSCC made it’s beefed up late-ish play here rather than in North Carolina and began doing so back in early September), but it’s impossible to know.  

I do think this election shows that #StrongIncumbent Ron Johnson was largely a myth/meme given that he almost lost to Barnes despite Barnes being a pretty weak candidate who received inconsistent support from the national party.  

[Gass3268]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Really frustrating too in the sense that if everyone knew the Barnes race would only be 1pt, I'm sure he would've been able to maximize resources and come up with some additional ideas to get that last 25-30k votes.

I haven’t done the maths but I really wonder whether the post September tightening saw a lot of resources go elsewhere- NV obviously needed it, but I wonder how much NH and some other house raises got.

It really was awful that Barnes got outspent in that time and iirc he didn’t have a huge lead in campaign cash to overturn the huge Super PAC spending against him.

It really stings but despite how close it was, I don't think Barnes actually could have won. Johnson was more toxic than we thought

Hard to say, but what is pretty clear is that Kind would’ve won had he run (assuming he could win the nomination).  I think Barnes might’ve won had he received significantly more outside support (maybe if the DSCC made it’s beefed up late-ish play here rather than in North Carolina and began doing so back in early September), but it’s impossible to know.  

I do think this election shows that #StrongIncumbent Ron Johnson was largely a myth/meme given that he almost lost to Barnes despite Barnes being a pretty weak candidate who received inconsistent support from the national party.  

I think Barnes wins if he would have been able to counter Johnson's post-primary spending barrage that permanently defined Barnes as weak on crime which critically wounded him. Just countering that with equal spending I think would have gotten him the necessary votes. He only needed to flip ~15k. Funny enough, Johnson's strategy here is what Baldwin has done to both of her opponents in both 2012 and 2018. You hit them hard immediately after the primary.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Really frustrating too in the sense that if everyone knew the Barnes race would only be 1pt, I'm sure he would've been able to maximize resources and come up with some additional ideas to get that last 25-30k votes.

I haven’t done the maths but I really wonder whether the post September tightening saw a lot of resources go elsewhere- NV obviously needed it, but I wonder how much NH and some other house raises got.

It really was awful that Barnes got outspent in that time and iirc he didn’t have a huge lead in campaign cash to overturn the huge Super PAC spending against him.

It really stings but despite how close it was, I don't think Barnes actually could have won. Johnson was more toxic than we thought

Hard to say, but what is pretty clear is that Kind would’ve won had he run (assuming he could win the nomination).  I think Barnes might’ve won had he received significantly more outside support (maybe if the DSCC made it’s beefed up late-ish play here rather than in North Carolina and began doing so back in early September), but it’s impossible to know.  

I do think this election shows that #StrongIncumbent Ron Johnson was largely a myth/meme given that he almost lost to Barnes despite Barnes being a pretty weak candidate who received inconsistent support from the national party.  

I think Barnes wins if he would have been able to counter Johnson's post-primary spending barrage that permanently defined Barnes as weak on crime which critically wounded him. Just countering that with equal spending I think would have gotten him the necessary votes. He only needed to flip ~15k. Funny enough, Johnson's strategy here is what Baldwin has done to both of her opponents in both 2012 and 2018. You hit them hard immediately after the primary.

Re: Baldwin: Ehhhh…I dunno.  I don’t recall 2012 that clearly, but 2018 wasn’t anything so impressive.  Baldwin’s opponent was a whacko sacrificial lamb and the seat was always considered Safe D iirc (plus, it was 2018).  I actually think Baldwin is somewhat overrated Re: candidate strength and is basically just Generic D.

[Spectator]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Really frustrating too in the sense that if everyone knew the Barnes race would only be 1pt, I'm sure he would've been able to maximize resources and come up with some additional ideas to get that last 25-30k votes.

I haven’t done the maths but I really wonder whether the post September tightening saw a lot of resources go elsewhere- NV obviously needed it, but I wonder how much NH and some other house raises got.

It really was awful that Barnes got outspent in that time and iirc he didn’t have a huge lead in campaign cash to overturn the huge Super PAC spending against him.

It really stings but despite how close it was, I don't think Barnes actually could have won. Johnson was more toxic than we thought

Hard to say, but what is pretty clear is that Kind would’ve won had he run (assuming he could win the nomination).  I think Barnes might’ve won had he received significantly more outside support (maybe if the DSCC made it’s beefed up late-ish play here rather than in North Carolina and began doing so back in early September), but it’s impossible to know.  

I do think this election shows that #StrongIncumbent Ron Johnson was largely a myth/meme given that he almost lost to Barnes despite Barnes being a pretty weak candidate who received inconsistent support from the national party.  

I think Barnes wins if he would have been able to counter Johnson's post-primary spending barrage that permanently defined Barnes as weak on crime which critically wounded him. Just countering that with equal spending I think would have gotten him the necessary votes. He only needed to flip ~15k. Funny enough, Johnson's strategy here is what Baldwin has done to both of her opponents in both 2012 and 2018. You hit them hard immediately after the primary.

Re: Baldwin: Ehhhh…I dunno.  I don’t recall 2012 that clearly, but 2018 wasn’t anything so impressive.  Baldwin’s opponent was a whacko sacrificial lamb and the seat was always considered Safe D iirc (plus, it was 2018).  I actually think Baldwin is somewhat overrated Re: candidate strength and is basically just Generic D.

I think both Wisconsin senators are overrated and more lucky than anything in the years they’ve ran.

[Sir Mohamed]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Really frustrating too in the sense that if everyone knew the Barnes race would only be 1pt, I'm sure he would've been able to maximize resources and come up with some additional ideas to get that last 25-30k votes.

I haven’t done the maths but I really wonder whether the post September tightening saw a lot of resources go elsewhere- NV obviously needed it, but I wonder how much NH and some other house raises got.

It really was awful that Barnes got outspent in that time and iirc he didn’t have a huge lead in campaign cash to overturn the huge Super PAC spending against him.

It really stings but despite how close it was, I don't think Barnes actually could have won. Johnson was more toxic than we thought

Hard to say, but what is pretty clear is that Kind would’ve won had he run (assuming he could win the nomination).  I think Barnes might’ve won had he received significantly more outside support (maybe if the DSCC made it’s beefed up late-ish play here rather than in North Carolina and began doing so back in early September), but it’s impossible to know.  

I do think this election shows that #StrongIncumbent Ron Johnson was largely a myth/meme given that he almost lost to Barnes despite Barnes being a pretty weak candidate who received inconsistent support from the national party.  

I think Barnes wins if he would have been able to counter Johnson's post-primary spending barrage that permanently defined Barnes as weak on crime which critically wounded him. Just countering that with equal spending I think would have gotten him the necessary votes. He only needed to flip ~15k. Funny enough, Johnson's strategy here is what Baldwin has done to both of her opponents in both 2012 and 2018. You hit them hard immediately after the primary.

Re: Baldwin: Ehhhh…I dunno.  I don’t recall 2012 that clearly, but 2018 wasn’t anything so impressive.  Baldwin’s opponent was a whacko sacrificial lamb and the seat was always considered Safe D iirc (plus, it was 2018).  I actually think Baldwin is somewhat overrated Re: candidate strength and is basically just Generic D.

I think both Wisconsin senators are overrated and more lucky than anything in the years they’ve ran.

RoJo for sure got lucky in all of his 3 elections, though Baldwin winning with 55% in 2018 was impressive, even for a blue wave year. Remember that Evers just very barely won on the same ballot. Baldwin for sure is favored next year and will most likely outperform Biden.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/purrtah/status/1629637515811651584?s=46&t=MDhlK7WbdifppY...

[Pollster]

The turnout operation that Ben Wikler & co have built in Dane County is probably the single-greatest threat to Republican statewide chances in this state for the foreseeable future, even moreso than trends in WOW (though the latter obviously does more to help with geographic balance).

Thats excellent but they should have a turnout operation in every county. No county should be ignored.

Good idea in theory and morally, but with the way trends are going in most Wisconsin counties there's a good argument to be made that this hurts WisDems in the longrun more than it helps.

I disagree. I heard turnout in Eau Claire was three times as high as in November, That could have made a difference in the Senate election if it was combined with similar turnout rates in other college towns.

Georgia Dems have a turnout operation in every county. There is no reason Wisconsin can't.

Georgia Dems can afford to do this because the trends in their favor in the state drastically outweigh the trends against them. Creating a strong turnout infrastructure only serves to benefit them in the longrun, without question.

Wisconsin's countervailing trends are the exact opposite and is the reason WisDems need a different kind of turnout operation. If a person votes once, they are more likely to vote a second time. If they vote a second time, they are even more likely to vote a third time. If they vote a third time, they are even MORE likely to vote a fourth time, and so on. And they become even easier to turn out in an irregular/off-year election as this pattern develops. This is functionally what "building a turnout operation/infrastructure" means, and it's not something you want to create in an area where the voters you are forming those habitual, long-term voting habits with are quickly turning against you, especially in a state as evenly divided as this one. In practice, for example, you could argue that the behemoth suburban turnout machines that the GOP built during the Clinton/Bush years are major contributors to their struggles today.

[Gass3268]

Republicans are trying to turn this race into "protecting Walker's reforms" rather then the issues I think we all know will define the race (abortion and democracy).

https://twitter.com/DanRShafer/status/1630254312076050435?s=20

That said I do expect Act 10, Right to Work, Voter ID, and all the other controversial issues from the Walker years will be challenged again. Plus the issues related to Evers' ability to appoint folks.

[Gass3268]

Kelly has been dark for a week.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1630259966400446468?s=20

[Gass3268]

Kelly has been dark for a week.

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1630259966400446468?s=20

The conservative side is finally going up after almost a week dark, but its from a SuperPac so the dollars won't be worth the same as the Liberal side.

https://twitter.com/MediumBuying/status/1630341871145762817?s=20

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Side note but how do you pronounce Protasiewicz

[TML]

Side note but how do you pronounce Protasiewicz

Listen to the second half of the following video for the candidate's preferred pronunciation (Hint: It's different from how her Polish ancestors would have pronounced it):

https://www.youtube.com/shorts/wWN4iiBm6gw

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think I'll be saying Purotashiewish. That's what instinct tells me that would be said.

[walleye26]

Side note but how do you pronounce Protasiewicz

Her ad makes fun of this, she says “you don’t need to know how to say Pro-tuh-say-witz to know judge Janet will fight for your rights.”