Wisconsin Megathread v3: GOP in MASSIVE DISARRAY

[ElectionsGuy]

I plugged the 2019 Hagedorn/Neubauer percentages of each county into the 2020 turnout numbers by county. Here's what I got:

Karofsky: 774,343 (50.01%)
Kelly: 774,030 (49.99%)

So about 0.5% of the swing was turnout based, the other 10.6% was performance-based. At least by county. We'd probably get slightly different numbers going down to municipality and precinct levels.

[ElectionsGuy]

Just cause I was curious I did this too, 2016 presidential election using 2012 county turnout numbers:

Trump: 1,443,072 (47.03%)
Clinton: 1,431,485 (46.65%)

[ElectionsGuy]

Supreme Court elections continue to have their own unique patterns compared to fall general elections, with the Milwaukee area being much more conservative-leaning while Dane and the Driftless area being more liberal-leaning. This is despite the presidential primary happening on the same day.

2016 President to 2020 Supreme Court Trend



Trend toward Kelly
Trend toward Karofsky

Menominee had a huge swing to the right, probably just due to very low turnout.

[Badger]

Is there anything stopping the local governments of Madison and Milwaukee from mailing ballots to every registered voter the way those other cities did? If no, seems like a no-brainer.

$$$

Yep, Bayside has about 4400 people, Whitefish Bay (Called Whiteman's Bay) has around 13500, compare that to the amount of people in Milwaukee and Madison. Plus, those two burbs have money too.

Arguably a prime example of spending money to make money? Places like Milwaukee are obviously going to be much worse off financially in so many ways with another 4 years of Trump.

Burns me to no end that this is done on a municipal rather than statewide basis. What a blatant equal protection violation.

Hopefully one that Justice Karkofsky can help remedy.

[Badger]

^^ That is one way for states to mitigate turnout/safety issues without relying on changes to the law from Congress or the state legislature. It might even encourage Republicans to make the process easier because if all the major cities do it, they won't want to be left out. On the other hand, they could just as easily seek to prevent cities from doing this.

In some states, it might not be a viable option if the absentee request rules are too onerous. For instance, I'm not sure if Texas has any plans to make fear of getting COVID-19 a valid excuse in requesting an absentee ballot. For TX, these are the only excuses listed:

https://www.sos.texas.gov/elections/voter/reqabbm.shtml

To be eligible to vote early by mail in Texas, you must:

    be 65 years or older;
    be disabled;
    be out of the county on election day and during the period for early voting by personal appearance; or
    be confined in jail, but otherwise eligible.

The bare minimum compromise in Congress should be to at least force states to allow people to request absentee ballots if they fear getting sick. Most states already allow this, so it's really just for the holdouts .

https://www.austinmonitor.com/stories/2020/04/texas-officials-try-to-clarify-who-can-vote-by-mail-but-they-might-not-be-able-to-just-say-everyone/

In their advisory, state officials said, "the Election Code defines ‘disability’ to include ‘a sickness or physical condition that prevents the voter from appearing at the polling place on election day without a likelihood of needing personal assistance or of injuring the voter’s health.’ (Sec. 82.002).”

Officials said any voter who meets that definition must be able to apply for ballot by mail.

AG Paxton disagrees and might arrest/charge anyone that says otherwise.

https://twitter.com/srl/status/1250508771190849536?s=20

Yeah, Republican AGs in Texas have used their office like a club against any group attempting to mass register voters, especially Hispanics, using the most nominal technical violations at pretexts for injunctions, restraining orders, the lot.

I shouldn't say all groups. White evangical churches who engaged in voter drives apparently never dealt with any legal problems whatsoever.

[Non Swing Voter]

Seems like that's meant to intimidate more than advise, as it doesn't actually say what would be appropriate.

[cg41386]

I really hate these people.

http://legis.wisconsin.gov/assembly/63/vos/media/news-updates/statement-legislature-takes-gov-evers-to-court/

[MasterJedi]

I really hate these people.

http://legis.wisconsin.gov/assembly/63/vos/media/news-updates/statement-legislature-takes-gov-evers-to-court/

Per the constitution Evers can only really extend it until May 12 without a joint resolution with the legislature, so we're screwed. I've told people that once we open up on the 12th wait at least a month before going places unless you absolutely have to.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1252724969387315201?s=20

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MollyBeck/status/1252962941969879043

[Epaminondas]

[ElectionsGuy]

Republican Primary (98% Trump) vs Kelly Turnout

Statewide, The Republican Primary got 91% of the votes Kelly got.



R Primary > Kelly
Kelly > R Primary

Basically, more Trump/Karofksy voters in the green counties, more Kelly/D Primary voters in the red counties (lots of them in Dane and Milwaukee)

[ElectionsGuy]

I accidentally posted this in another thread where I meant to post it here

The state certified the election results yesterday. Here is a turnout increase map from 2016 Dem primary to 2020 Dem primary. Color shading is in 5 percent increments (lightest shade of red is 0 to -5%, then -5 to 10%, etc)

Statewide: -8.2%



Increase
Decrease

Most counties are within the 0 to -20% range, however the WOW counties jump out...

Waukesha - 20.9% increase
Ozaukee - 18.4% increase
Washington - 15.0% increase

There is a multitude of evidence from many states that black turnout is actually down from 2016 primaries, whereas white liberal and suburbanite turnout is way up, and that couldn't be more exemplified here as well (with or without COVID-19, it's plainly obvious)

Dane - 2.4% increase
Milwaukee - 21.5% decrease (only 5 counties have a larger decrease)

[Skill and Chance]

It looks like the state supreme court is going to throw out Governor Evers' current coronavirus public health orders, either 5/2 or 4/3.  Hagedorn seemed undecided, maybe mildly supporting the governor/public health office.  The other 4 conservatives all seemed adamantly opposed.  One even compared it to Korematsu.

[Gass3268]

Here is the Presidential Primary party turnout trend map:

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

It looks like the state supreme court is going to throw out Governor Evers' current coronavirus public health orders, either 5/2 or 4/3.  Hagedorn seemed undecided, maybe mildly supporting the governor/public health office.  The other 4 conservatives all seemed adamantly opposed.  One even compared it to Korematsu.

Aren't there now three Democrats since we just picked up a WI SC seat?  If Hagedorn also ends up supporting it then that would be 4-3 in favor of the public health orders, no?

[MaxQue]

It looks like the state supreme court is going to throw out Governor Evers' current coronavirus public health orders, either 5/2 or 4/3.  Hagedorn seemed undecided, maybe mildly supporting the governor/public health office.  The other 4 conservatives all seemed adamantly opposed.  One even compared it to Korematsu.

Aren't there now three Democrats since we just picked up a WI SC seat?  If Hagedorn also ends up supporting it then that would be 4-3 in favor of the public health orders, no?

Term starts July 1st.

[Gass3268]

It looks like the state supreme court is going to throw out Governor Evers' current coronavirus public health orders, either 5/2 or 4/3.  Hagedorn seemed undecided, maybe mildly supporting the governor/public health office.  The other 4 conservatives all seemed adamantly opposed.  One even compared it to Korematsu.

Aren't there now three Democrats since we just picked up a WI SC seat?  If Hagedorn also ends up supporting it then that would be 4-3 in favor of the public health orders, no?

Term starts July 1st.

Yeah, lame duck period unfortunately. No reason there couldn't be instant replacement.

[Skill and Chance]

It looks like the state supreme court is going to throw out Governor Evers' current coronavirus public health orders, either 5/2 or 4/3.  Hagedorn seemed undecided, maybe mildly supporting the governor/public health office.  The other 4 conservatives all seemed adamantly opposed.  One even compared it to Korematsu.

Aren't there now three Democrats since we just picked up a WI SC seat?  If Hagedorn also ends up supporting it then that would be 4-3 in favor of the public health orders, no?

Term starts July 1st.

Yeah, lame duck period unfortunately. No reason there couldn't be instant replacement.

On a separate note, I believe Hagedorn was considered particularly out there conservative when he won?  He's turning out to be the most moderate of the conservative block on several issues.

[Tartarus Sauce]

It looks like the state supreme court is going to throw out Governor Evers' current coronavirus public health orders, either 5/2 or 4/3.  Hagedorn seemed undecided, maybe mildly supporting the governor/public health office.  The other 4 conservatives all seemed adamantly opposed.  One even compared it to Korematsu.

Aren't there now three Democrats since we just picked up a WI SC seat?  If Hagedorn also ends up supporting it then that would be 4-3 in favor of the public health orders, no?

Term starts July 1st.

Yeah, lame duck period unfortunately. No reason there couldn't be instant replacement.

On a separate note, I believe Hagedorn was considered particularly out there conservative when he won?  He's turning out to be the most moderate of the conservative block on several issues.

His personal views are atrocious, but yes, it's turned out to be quite a surprise.

[Skill and Chance]

It looks like the state supreme court is going to throw out Governor Evers' current coronavirus public health orders, either 5/2 or 4/3.  Hagedorn seemed undecided, maybe mildly supporting the governor/public health office.  The other 4 conservatives all seemed adamantly opposed.  One even compared it to Korematsu.

Aren't there now three Democrats since we just picked up a WI SC seat?  If Hagedorn also ends up supporting it then that would be 4-3 in favor of the public health orders, no?

Term starts July 1st.

Yeah, lame duck period unfortunately. No reason there couldn't be instant replacement.

On a separate note, I believe Hagedorn was considered particularly out there conservative when he won?  He's turning out to be the most moderate of the conservative block on several issues.

His personal views are atrocious, but yes, it's turned out to be quite a surprise.

It's fascinating. Judicial elections are different of course, but it reminds me of the several large state Republican governors who ran as Trumpy firebreathers and then mostly governed as moderates. 

[Skill and Chance]

And it gets struck down 4/3, with Hagedorn writing the dissent.

[2016]

And it gets struck down 4/3, with Hagedorn writing the dissent.

Finally!!! About time! Evers is a sure GONER in 2022 if it's a Biden Midterm.

[Gass3268]

And it gets struck down 4/3, with Hagedorn writing the dissent.

Finally!!! About time! Evers is a sure GONER in 2022 if it's a Biden Midterm.

Hopefully Evers will reinstate the popular and reasonable restrictions once Kelly is booted from the court in August. I'm going back to Wisconsin this weekend and I will boycott any business that recklessly opens up.

[ElectionsGuy]

And it gets struck down 4/3, with Hagedorn writing the dissent.

Finally!!! About time! Evers is a sure GONER in 2022 if it's a Biden Midterm.

Hopefully Evers will reinstate the popular and reasonable restrictions once Kelly is booted from the court in August. I'm going back to Wisconsin this weekend and I will boycott any business that recklessly opens up.

So you won't go to any businesses that you wouldn't have bene able to go to anyway? Good for you.