State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

WI has two specials on April 6. I am in SD-13, Fitzgerald’s senate district, and AD-89 up north is also open following Nygren’s resignation. 89 is safe R, but something weird is happening in SD-13. I live here, and there is an independent “Trump Conservative” party member named Spencer Zimmerman who is running. I doubt he gets more than 2% of the vote, but if there is a high Dem turnout in the Dane county portion here, as well as an unexpected protest vote, there is a tiny chance they could win it. For now, Safe R, unless something weird happens.

Zimmerman is a perennial candidate who I don’t believe even lives in the district.  He seems to consistently get around 2% of the vote when he runs as a 3rd party/independent.  He doesn’t seem likely to significantly affect the outcome.  Pretty close to Safe R I’d say.

Might be a bit different now that it seems like the GOP is pretty splintered and some conservatives might be angry at them for letting Biden be innagurated.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

State senate election in Meeks’ old district today.
This is a swingier area so it could be an interesting election.
Meeks won as a non-incumbent in 2018 with around a 4% margin.

We have a Rain in Nova-esque information drop.
https://twitter.com/LauraRBelin/status/1354067649496551424

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

TX 68th HD is titanium R following that on Jan 23.

That is an understatement.

David Spiller(R) 43.9%
Craig Carter (R) 18.1%
John Berry (R) 17.4%
Jason Brinkley (R) 16.3%
Charles Gregory (D) 4.3%

Gregory got zero votes in Cottle and King counties.

Spiller and Carter advance to the special runoff, though Texas does permit a candidate to withdraw from the runoff. Given that the House is in session, Carter might be talked into withdrawing.

This is actually a severe underperformance from 2018, panic time?

The turnout for these election is almost nothing and in titanium R areas like this no democrat is gonna be a consistent voter.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1354280930324721664
Republcian win by +10.6, more evidence of democrats entering there dying throes in rural Iowa.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1354287052465049600

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Chaz is a moron. Trump won Iowa sd41 by 21 pts

Stewart came within 2 points of flipping it in 18.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1351977664916066305
Former CA-50 candidate Ammar Campa-Najjar puts out a bizarre press release in the AD-79 race. He humble-brags about leading the polls and how his exploratory committee saw a path to victory

and then passes on running because he doesn't want to get in the way of a woman of color.

Now I'm just watching this guy's career because it's like a trainwreck in real time. utter self immolation.

maybe he's hoping the CA-50 get's redrawn to be more favourable and he get it nextime ?
Didn't he also get in trouble for being very alt-right and giving an interview to like a white nationalist group ? maybe he's trying to score woke points to get more favourable ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://bangordailynews.com/2021/03/09/politics/follow-the-election-results-in-maine-senate-district-14/

Hickman (D) wins in Maine!!! Democratic hold, but it's a swing district so still exciting.

It's a Trump-Biden district, the democratic nominee a progressive african american won it an absolute landslide after Biden won it by a point.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Another Virginia special election, no change from the presential results. Safe Republican Hold.
https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1374518440405299200

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

GOP won the CT special election by 7.

who won this in 2020? biden or trump?

Biden, but republican are pretty strong down-ballot in this district.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

GOP won the CT special election by 7.

who won this in 2020? biden or trump?

Biden, but republican are pretty strong down-ballot in this district.

Thanks for the info.

Nothing to read into much.

It's a Trump +11 2016 to a Biden +0.2 in 2020, so probably a case of trends taking time to make their way downballot.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

46.94% Flynn (D)
39.22% Chermak (R)
9.82% Sebastianelli (G)
1.09% Covington (L)

114/163 but no mail yet.

Seems to be a very good result for the democrats. up by 7 with no mail-in votes and strong green spoiler.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Kind of interesting to note. Oregon State Rep. Mike Nearman was expelled because he let armed far-right protestors into the State Capitol back in December. Oregon has got to be one of the most polarized states in the country. You have the far-left DSA types in Portland and the far-right militia types in the rural areas.

https://mobile.twitter.com/CamilaOrtiTV/status/1403190491378642949

Apparently his district is a biden district according to a tweet I saw.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Results from a saftley democratic AD-18 california district.
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1410074044662091779

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The Aug. 17th CT-SD-36 special will be one to watch. With the Dem-leaning Independent candidate in the race the Republicans have a serious shot at retaking this previously Republican seat. Along with the Republican advantage we've seen in CT special elections the seat is ripe for a Republican flip.

That's my uncle's district, they've natrualized recently and he's a rich investment bankers. He seemed to be a mostly disinterested obama voter with his wife being a Romney supporter back in 2012 who complained about Obama giving people welfare and bussing people to the poll but got turned off hard by Trump and jumped into the #resist camp. They both probably voted federarly straight-ticket democrat in 2018 and 2020 but am not sure how they are going to vote on a state level.

I should ask him abou it.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1435759814857089031
Huge chance the democrats loose this seat.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

Or maybe one shouldn’t read this much into a single special election with very low turnout.

Well individual races shouldn't be read into, but one bright spot for democrats is that there's no real trend of underperformance in state house races like the republicans had in 2017 before the 2018 blue wave.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?

New hampshire backlash against the governing R trifecta ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

http://thelocalne.ws/2021/11/30/belsito-is-first-democrat-to-take-4th-essex-since-1858/

Democrat Jamie Belsito wins special election for 4th Essex district in Massachusetts. A Democrat has not won this district since 1858.

By what margin did it vote Biden ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

http://thelocalne.ws/2021/11/30/belsito-is-first-democrat-to-take-4th-essex-since-1858/

Democrat Jamie Belsito wins special election for 4th Essex district in Massachusetts. A Democrat has not won this district since 1858.

By what margin did it vote Biden ?

He won it by about 30 points.

It's easy to forget just how rapid the realignment in new england has been in some places.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?

Highly educated New England special election voters don't follow national trends. In 2017–18, special elections in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island were among the strongest trends toward Republicans in the country. They all still swung strongly to Democrats in both 2018 and 2020.

Also there was the special Senate election in Greenwich where a Republican flipped a seat that Biden carried by over 20.

Yes; in addition to the strong education leading to ticket-splitting, the strong tradition of parochialism means it's hard to read even state trends into these races.

I'm in that district now, my aunt voted for the democrat despite being pro-life, anti-weed whiel my uncle who's an Elon musk stan just didn't vote. Apparently the democrat canidate was considered kinda weird by the residents.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Republicans hold AR-SD-07 in Washington County, Arkansas, by just 34 votes (!), or 0.84%. This seat went for Trump by 14%. Jim Bob Duggar ran in the R primary earlier but lost.

Absoutley insane perfomance for the democrat in the special even with all the special factors.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/austin_mirmina/status/1498835790285127685

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Are we starting to see the backlash to Dobbs?

Oh huh this was a republican seat, right ? Did it vote for Biden ?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Whoa.

https://twitter.com/umichvoter/status/1521662053462999040

This is the guy who told his daughter to just lay back and enjoy it if she was being raped, pretty obvious reason why.