State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Matty]

They just released the result

https://twitter.com/norwood270/status/1382144467566788608

[VAR]

Really doesn’t bode well for Hassan IMO, but we’ll see I guess.

[Matty]

Really doesn’t bode well for Hassan, but we’ll see I guess.

this result is in line with the 2016 result, which was a hillary win statewide.

[VAR]

Really doesn’t bode well for Hassan, but we’ll see I guess.

this result is in line with the 2016 result, which was a hillary win statewide.

So? Hassan needs to do well in places like this to have a prayer statewide because the working-class areas could swing harder against her.

Anyway, let’s not extrapolate too much from this

[Matty]

GOP won the CT special election by 7.

who won this in 2020? biden or trump?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

GOP won the CT special election by 7.

who won this in 2020? biden or trump?

Biden, but republican are pretty strong down-ballot in this district.

[Matty]

GOP won the CT special election by 7.

who won this in 2020? biden or trump?

Biden, but republican are pretty strong down-ballot in this district.

Thanks for the info.

Nothing to read into much.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

GOP won the CT special election by 7.

who won this in 2020? biden or trump?

Biden, but republican are pretty strong down-ballot in this district.

Thanks for the info.

Nothing to read into much.

It's a Trump +11 2016 to a Biden +0.2 in 2020, so probably a case of trends taking time to make their way downballot.

[Frenchrepublican]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1382153366403448832?s=20

For now dem candidates running in special elections have underperformed Biden by 0.6 on average.

[Brittain33]

For now dem candidates running in special elections have underperformed Biden by 0.6 on average.

Makes sense since that’s roughly what happened in federal downballot races last year, too.

[walleye26]

WI AD-37 will be July 13. That’s Jagler’s old seat. Likely R, contains Watertown, Columbus, parts of De Forest and a few townships of Dane County, and Waterloo.

[It’s so Joever]

Major special election coming in May 18. Senate district 20 in PA has a vacancy and there will be a special to determine who gets the vacant seat.

This seat is based primarily in Lackawanna County (Scranton) and is also in Cartwright’s house district.
The Democratic incumbent won this seat in 2018 (D+8 year) by a 22% margin.

Although that number seems high, this is prime Trump voter territory and a seat Republicans will want to win. If the GOP does pull it off, it would signal doom for Democrats in their WWC holdings. On the other hand, if Democrats do better than expected (honestly any margin over 10% in my opinion) it will support the Atlas rhetoric about low propensity Trumpers.

[Frenchrepublican]

Major special election coming in May 18. Senate district 20 in PA has a vacancy and there will be a special to determine who gets the vacant seat.

This seat is based primarily in Lackawanna County (Scranton) and is also in Cartwright’s house district.
The Democratic incumbent won this seat in 2018 (D+8 year) by a 22% margin.

Although that number seems high, this is prime Trump voter territory and a seat Republicans will want to win. If the GOP does pull it off, it would signal doom for Democrats in their WWC holdings. On the other hand, if Democrats do better than expected (honestly any margin over 10% in my opinion) it will support the Atlas rhetoric about low propensity Trumpers.

LOL, Biden won this district by 9 and Clinton still won it by 4 (yeah, it actually trended left), it's clearly not '' Trump territory ''.

Moreover the district you are talking about is not SD20 but SD22.

Concerning the special election it is very unlikely that the GOP will be able to win it, a Biden+9 district in a such area is probably safe/likely D and if the GOP is able to put it in the single digit it would be alreday pretty impressive.

[Skill and Chance]

Major special election coming in May 18. Senate district 20 in PA has a vacancy and there will be a special to determine who gets the vacant seat.

This seat is based primarily in Lackawanna County (Scranton) and is also in Cartwright’s house district.
The Democratic incumbent won this seat in 2018 (D+8 year) by a 22% margin.

Although that number seems high, this is prime Trump voter territory and a seat Republicans will want to win. If the GOP does pull it off, it would signal doom for Democrats in their WWC holdings. On the other hand, if Democrats do better than expected (honestly any margin over 10% in my opinion) it will support the Atlas rhetoric about low propensity Trumpers.

LOL, Biden won this district by 9 and Clinton still won it by 4 (yeah, it actually trended left), it's clearly not '' Trump territory ''.

Moreover the district you are talking about is not SD20 but SD22.

Concerning the special election it is very unlikely that the GOP will be able to win it, a Biden+9 district in a such area is probably safe/likely D and if the GOP is able to put it in the single digit it would be alreday pretty impressive.

IDK though the Rust Belt is where we really need fresh data.

[It’s so Joever]

Major special election coming in May 18. Senate district 20 in PA has a vacancy and there will be a special to determine who gets the vacant seat.

This seat is based primarily in Lackawanna County (Scranton) and is also in Cartwright’s house district.
The Democratic incumbent won this seat in 2018 (D+8 year) by a 22% margin.

Although that number seems high, this is prime Trump voter territory and a seat Republicans will want to win. If the GOP does pull it off, it would signal doom for Democrats in their WWC holdings. On the other hand, if Democrats do better than expected (honestly any margin over 10% in my opinion) it will support the Atlas rhetoric about low propensity Trumpers.

LOL, Biden won this district by 9 and Clinton still won it by 4 (yeah, it actually trended left), it's clearly not '' Trump territory ''.

Moreover the district you are talking about is not SD20 but SD22.

Concerning the special election it is very unlikely that the GOP will be able to win it, a Biden+9 district in a such area is probably safe/likely D and if the GOP is able to put it in the single digit it would be alreday pretty impressive.

These are the types of places the GOP will want over performances in by now to have a good chance at nabbing some of these WWC seats.

It will be very possibly competitive, and writing off this district is not something I would advise.

[Frenchrepublican]

Major special election coming in May 18. Senate district 20 in PA has a vacancy and there will be a special to determine who gets the vacant seat.

This seat is based primarily in Lackawanna County (Scranton) and is also in Cartwright’s house district.
The Democratic incumbent won this seat in 2018 (D+8 year) by a 22% margin.

Although that number seems high, this is prime Trump voter territory and a seat Republicans will want to win. If the GOP does pull it off, it would signal doom for Democrats in their WWC holdings. On the other hand, if Democrats do better than expected (honestly any margin over 10% in my opinion) it will support the Atlas rhetoric about low propensity Trumpers.

LOL, Biden won this district by 9 and Clinton still won it by 4 (yeah, it actually trended left), it's clearly not '' Trump territory ''.

Moreover the district you are talking about is not SD20 but SD22.

Concerning the special election it is very unlikely that the GOP will be able to win it, a Biden+9 district in a such area is probably safe/likely D and if the GOP is able to put it in the single digit it would be alreday pretty impressive.

These are the types of places the GOP will want over performances in by now to have a good chance at nabbing some of these WWC seats.

It will be very possibly competitive, and writing off this district is not something I would advise.

I mean, Biden underperformed every statewide democratic candidates in northeastern PA and despite that he still won the seat by 9, there is no reason to expect the GOP to take this seat, especially considering how dem friendly it is downballot.

[VAR]

Here's some info about the four state legislative special elections in Pennsylvania today.

HD 59 (rural Western PA)
Trump +44 -- Barletta +22 -- Wagner +18 -- Trump +41
Watch the margins here.

HD 60 (rural Western PA)
Trump +49 -- Barletta +27 -- Wagner +24 -- Trump +48
Watch the margins here as well.

SD 22 (primarily Lackawanna County)
Clinton +4 -- McGinty +13 -- Casey +23 -- Wolf +30 -- Biden +9
Lackawanna County Commissioner Chris Chermak (R) is running against State Rep. Martin Flynn (D-Scranton) in this district that has shifted toward Republicans over the last decade. Chermak faces an uphill battle not only because of the district's partisan lean, but also because this area is heavily Democratic downballot. Democrats should be concerned if Chermak outruns Trump, and if he wins, it would be a devastating sign for them in the Rust Belt.

SD 48 (Lebanon & southern Dauphin)
Trump +25 -- Barletta +13 -- Wagner +4 -- Trump +20
Neutral-trending district with a few urban/suburban pockets--watch the margins here, too, I suppose.

[It’s so Joever]

Watch Chermak win.

[Roll Roons]

Any news on these?

[Brittain33]

Any news on these?

Follow @ChazNuttycombe on Twitter.

[Wormless Gourd]

PA-SEN 22

Marty Flynn
DEM
11,084   49.88%

Chris Chermak
GOP
8,608   38.73%

Marlene Sebastianelli
GRE
2,282   10.27%

Nathan Covington
LIB
249   1.12%

4% in, but that Green vote is bizarrely high. Apparently the Scranton Times endorsed them? Why?

[Gass3268]

46.94% Flynn (D)
39.22% Chermak (R)
9.82% Sebastianelli (G)
1.09% Covington (L)

114/163 but no mail yet.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

270towin is actually ahead of the PA SOS in reporting.

In PA-SEN-48, Clements is up 67-27 with ~5,000 votes in. 250,000 people live in the district, so I would think that with state legislature S.E. turnout that this isn't very good.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Oh my God Chermak might do it...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

46.94% Flynn (D)
39.22% Chermak (R)
9.82% Sebastianelli (G)
1.09% Covington (L)

114/163 but no mail yet.

Seems to be a very good result for the democrats. up by 7 with no mail-in votes and strong green spoiler.