State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[It’s so Joever]

Very worrisome, signs of a 2021 bloodbath?

[It’s so Joever]

State senate election in Meeks’ old district today.
This is a swingier area so it could be an interesting election.
Meeks won as a non-incumbent in 2018 with around a 4% margin.

[It’s so Joever]

TX 68th HD is titanium R following that on Jan 23.

That is an understatement.

David Spiller(R) 43.9%
Craig Carter (R) 18.1%
John Berry (R) 17.4%
Jason Brinkley (R) 16.3%
Charles Gregory (D) 4.3%

Gregory got zero votes in Cottle and King counties.

Spiller and Carter advance to the special runoff, though Texas does permit a candidate to withdraw from the runoff. Given that the House is in session, Carter might be talked into withdrawing.

This is actually a severe underperformance from 2018, panic time?

[It’s so Joever]

Bad omen considering in person was also probably reduced.
2022 is already shaping up to be an R wave.
Panic time!
Panic time!

Eh screw it America is communist and this cesspool of a country deserves to fail.

[It’s so Joever]

A sample size of 2 elections is not very good, but these two elections would suggest a GOP blowout.
Let’s hope for more data soon.

[It’s so Joever]

A sample size of 2 elections is not very good, but these two elections would suggest a GOP blowout.
Let’s hope for more data soon.

I would not worry too much about the VA HD 02 Special Election. Very few voters even knew there was an election occurring.

I’m not counting that one.

[It’s so Joever]

I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

[It’s so Joever]

I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.

Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

[It’s so Joever]

I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.

Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.

Yes...yes it does.

[It’s so Joever]

Blue Avs if this was a Republican over performance would be talking about how this is a terrible sign for Dems in the midterms and how the House will certainly flip (which it will but I digress)
Now that it’s a Dem over performance, they chose to ignore the data? Y’all are falling into the Atlas Dem trap of 2020 where all polls that showed Biden/Dems not doing great were “junk” for some reason.
Go ahead, I personally would rather it be on your side anyways lmao.

[It’s so Joever]

Blue Avs if this was a Republican over performance would be talking about how this is a terrible sign for Dems in the midterms and how the House will certainly flip (which it will but I digress)
Now that it’s a Dem over performance, they chose to ignore the data? Y’all are falling into the Atlas Dem trap of 2020 where all polls that showed Biden/Dems not doing great were “junk” for some reason.
Go ahead, I personally would rather it be on your side anyways lmao.

We have 100+ years of data showing that the party out of power does well in house midterm elections

Senate and gubernatorial more mixed

Repubs need to flip like 5 seats in 2022. That is incredibly easy and should be a layup with good recruiting.

As Harry enten and others have said, out of power parties gaining house seats in midterm races is almost as predictable as the sun rising in the east.

It repubs can’t flip 5 seats, then they deserve a leadership-cleansing.

I'm not f[inks]ing arguing that. You do realize I am a proud Doomercrat, right?
But again, you are falling into the spiral Atlas Dems fell into pre-2020 a bit, although you probably will not suffer as much embarrassment because 2022 will be good for the gop, your logic that we can just cherrypick data is bull- and only will work in very partisan years.

[It’s so Joever]

Oh, I forgot to mention, it appears that the WI-89 election which also took place that day was pretty good for Democrats. Although incumbency explains some stuff, we did have our best election in that district since 2012.
Will be interesting to watch the next two specials on the 13th.

[It’s so Joever]

Wisconsin SD13 results:

Jagler 51.16
Winker 43.77
Zimmerman 4.55
Schmitz 0.52

D overperformance, and a pretty substantial one. R+7.39 here, while 2018 was R+18.18.

Even if you assign the entire third-party vote to Republicans (ASP would probably split more evenly, but whatever), that's still only R+12.46.

I guess that just goes to show how powerful the Trump-on-the-ballot effect is in Wisconsin.

It just shows that when the main statewide race features two democrats many republicans voters are simply not going to turn out to the polls. (What a surprise).

Don’t ruin the narrative/disturb the echo chamber.

Okay, explain why 2018 didn't have the extreme-R rural margins of 2016 and 2020 then.

Trump and Obama are the same. They have a large number of low-propensity voters who only show up to vote for their guy.

Which one of these years was a D wave?

[It’s so Joever]

Major special election coming in May 18. Senate district 20 in PA has a vacancy and there will be a special to determine who gets the vacant seat.

This seat is based primarily in Lackawanna County (Scranton) and is also in Cartwright’s house district.
The Democratic incumbent won this seat in 2018 (D+8 year) by a 22% margin.

Although that number seems high, this is prime Trump voter territory and a seat Republicans will want to win. If the GOP does pull it off, it would signal doom for Democrats in their WWC holdings. On the other hand, if Democrats do better than expected (honestly any margin over 10% in my opinion) it will support the Atlas rhetoric about low propensity Trumpers.

[It’s so Joever]

Major special election coming in May 18. Senate district 20 in PA has a vacancy and there will be a special to determine who gets the vacant seat.

This seat is based primarily in Lackawanna County (Scranton) and is also in Cartwright’s house district.
The Democratic incumbent won this seat in 2018 (D+8 year) by a 22% margin.

Although that number seems high, this is prime Trump voter territory and a seat Republicans will want to win. If the GOP does pull it off, it would signal doom for Democrats in their WWC holdings. On the other hand, if Democrats do better than expected (honestly any margin over 10% in my opinion) it will support the Atlas rhetoric about low propensity Trumpers.

LOL, Biden won this district by 9 and Clinton still won it by 4 (yeah, it actually trended left), it's clearly not '' Trump territory ''.

Moreover the district you are talking about is not SD20 but SD22.

Concerning the special election it is very unlikely that the GOP will be able to win it, a Biden+9 district in a such area is probably safe/likely D and if the GOP is able to put it in the single digit it would be alreday pretty impressive.

These are the types of places the GOP will want over performances in by now to have a good chance at nabbing some of these WWC seats.

It will be very possibly competitive, and writing off this district is not something I would advise.

[It’s so Joever]

Watch Chermak win.

[It’s so Joever]

A high single digits Dem win is about what we expected.
Nothing surprising here.

[It’s so Joever]

Lackawanna mails-ins were brutal:

Flynn: 8,413

Chermak: 2,013

Holy-

I guess the mail in divide is not going to stop even as Covid dwindles down.

[It’s so Joever]

Clements still leading by 13.

That lead should evaporate pretty quickly when more reporting comes.

[It’s so Joever]

It looks like we have a D overperformance in SD22 (Biden +9, Flynn +13 with a Green candidate getting 9) and HD59 (Trump +41, Rossi +33), and an R overperformance in SD48 (Trump +20, Gebhard +32) and HD60 (Trump +48, Major +57).

So, here we are with inconclusive special election results. Again.

Shove them into the averages I guess and hope for the best.

[It’s so Joever]

Results continue to trickle in sloooowly.  I've got some other stuff to do before bedtime, so this will be my last update.  You can follow the SoS results at https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/109802/web.276935/#/summary.  I'll predict that HD-34 goes to a runoff between Seabaugh (R) and Smith (D), while HD-156 could be either an outright Hagan win or a runoff between the two R's.

HD-34 (0% complete):

David Blinkhorn (R) 383 9.76%
Sam Hensley Jr. (D) 755 19.25%
Chris Neill (L) 29 0.74%
Devan Seabaugh (R) 1654 42.16%
Priscilla G. Smith (D) 1102 28.09%


HD-156 (75% complete):

Wright Gres (D) 602 14.45%
Leesa Hagan (R) 2026 48.63%
Wally Sapp (R) 1538 36.92%

Where are you getting numbers?
Edit: It has come to my attention that I can’t read.

[It’s so Joever]

R+9

[It’s so Joever]

Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

[It’s so Joever]

Trends are real I guess. Maybe 2022 will be a 2020/2018 in the suburbs but a 2016 or worse everywhere else.

Or maybe one shouldn’t read this much into single special elections with very low turnout.

Probably but that’s no fun.

[It’s so Joever]

This country deserves to fail.
Every single American deserves what is coming, including all of us.