State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.

Students aren't at Kennesaw State right now which was a significant source of the district's Dem electorate.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.

Students aren't at Kennesaw State right now which was a significant source of the district's Dem electorate.

What percent of KSU students are registered to vote in HD34 rather than their home?

No idea, but it's a big school and the practice isn't uncommon for on-campus students (I was registered at my dorm address many moons ago). If even 5% of the 41000 enrolled students were registered in HD34, it'd be enough to significantly swing this election.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

So…

The gop just won 77-23 in a Trump +6 seat in CT

Dems win 94-5 in a Biden +77 seat


I don’t get these conflicting signals

Source on CT result? Not seeing anything on DDHQ.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BrunoM_Jr/status/1496294217907425280

I'd hold out on speculating till we see an official tabulation, there's a chance that this is just ED votes.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Special election tonight in NY 43rd Assembly District. 95% in.

1 Brian A. Cunningham Democratic         1848          62.18%
 
2 Mesidor Azor Republican                     63 2.12%
 
3 Mesidor Azor Conservative                     25 0.84%
 
4 Jelanie Deshong Working Families 1028 34.59%
 
5 WRITE-IN                                                8 0.27%

Extremely blue district and very low turnout but no sign of of improvement Republican/Conservative candidate over past elections, Trump got 8% in 2016.

I'm curious as to what's so objectionable about Cunningham for Deshong to do so well. The Working Families nominee doesn't usually do this well in New York Elections (when they aren't also the Democratic nominee), without some real issues related to the Democratic nominee.

There has been quite a backlash to the tactics of the Brooklyn Democratic Party (from New Kings Democrats etc) and the perceived underhanded way in which they hand out nominations in local specials (which contribute to a huge % of how people end up in Assembly/Senate). In a race with turnout this low, the activist groups probably comprise a big % of overall votes.

Pretty much this ^. Here's an article that lays it out: https://www.brooklynpaper.com/brian-cunningham-democratic-nomination-43/

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

There’s got to be more to the story

Was the gop guy a creep

He told his daughter that if she got raped she should just lay back and enjoy it.  So yeah, he's an odious piece of sh**t deservedly going down in flames.

so a generic republican then

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/MaineSDCC/status/1536884801294290944?t=G2xcLhuNMa_vzuDFPodGG...

Outperforming both Biden and Mills for the record.

That's a 7 point improvement over 2020 for the dems!

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/MichaelLangeNYC/status/1757604206817534026?t=9Rq1Y3R3j-tQ-Mc...

Also in NY, the Bronx vote has stalled at 1.4k total votes with some precincts not in. Looking like a Dem underperformance - but still a overall landslide - seemingly cause of this hyperfixation by the Republican on one neighborhood block.

For context, this is actually a single housing development, and the R candidate is the president of the residents association of this development (and also lives there).

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Two Michigan HD elections tonight - Dems need to win both to retain their trifecta. Districts 13 and 25 - seems like they're safe and likely dem, respectively, but will be interesting to see margins, as always.