State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Drew]

WI has a special today for an Assembly seat which includes a portion of Dane along with mostly conservative rural areas.

The special election in AD-37 happens today.  It was 56-41 R in 2020, which was a D swing from 62-38 R in 2016 (the 2018 race was uncontested as the D was kicked off the ballot).  The district includes a portion of Dane County including DeForest, Columbia County (only Columbus), and portions of Jefferson and Dodge.  The Dem will have to run it up in Dane and Columbia in order to have any chance at an upset.  There is an ideologically conservative independent candidate from DeForest who got 3% in 2020 and is running again.  The D and R are both from Columbus.

Penterman (R) leading Adams (D) roughly 50-48 with all of Dane/Columbia/Dodge reporting.  It's only the strongly R Jefferson remaining.  There won't be an upset, but we'll see what the final margin looks like.

I just checked Jefferson County’s website, and Penterman has 1,089 votes to Adams (D) 675, with one small precinct in Watertown still out. The two-person percentage should be about 55-45 when all said and done. Adams also won Waterloo 149-113, which I believe Trump won.

Jefferson all in now, looks like 54-44 R overall.  So a bit of an overperformance for D's despite the loss.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Not sure what the absentee dump will do to the margin, but the R is up 63-37 in HD34 with about 9k total votes reporting.

Quite a strong result in what was a 3.9+ Trump district..

[Matty]

https://twitter.com/BrianElections/status/1415132508316790785

[Annatar]

Here are the results of the 4 special elections vs 2020, I have rounded to the nearest full number with the change in margin in brackets, according to DDHQ all the votes are in.

GA HD-34: Trump +4, R+26 (+22)
AL SD-34: Trump+42, R+61 (+19)
AL HD-73: Trump+33, R+50 (+17)
WI SD-37: Trump +11, R+10 (-1)

Overall Republicans ran significantly ahead of Trump on average although with variation with SD-37 in WI voting like 2020.

[Matty]

Here are the results of the 4 special elections vs 2020, I have rounded to the nearest full number with the change in margin in brackets, according to DDHQ all the votes are in.

GA HD-34: Trump +4, R+26 (+22)
AL SD-34: Trump+42, R+61 (+19)
AL HD-73: Trump+33, R+50 (+17)
WI SD-37: Trump +11, R+10 (-1)

Overall Republicans ran significantly ahead of Trump on average although with variation with SD-37 in WI voting like 2020.

low black turnout in GA and AL?

[wbrocks67]

WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.

Students aren't at Kennesaw State right now which was a significant source of the district's Dem electorate.

[Matty]

WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.

Students aren't at Kennesaw State right now which was a significant source of the district's Dem electorate.

What percent of KSU students are registered to vote in HD34 rather than their home?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.

Students aren't at Kennesaw State right now which was a significant source of the district's Dem electorate.

What percent of KSU students are registered to vote in HD34 rather than their home?

No idea, but it's a big school and the practice isn't uncommon for on-campus students (I was registered at my dorm address many moons ago). If even 5% of the 41000 enrolled students were registered in HD34, it'd be enough to significantly swing this election.

[Matty]

WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.

Students aren't at Kennesaw State right now which was a significant source of the district's Dem electorate.

What percent of KSU students are registered to vote in HD34 rather than their home?

No idea, but it's a big school and the practice isn't uncommon for on-campus students (I was registered at my dorm address many moons ago). If even 5% of the 41000 enrolled students were registered in HD34, it'd be enough to significantly swing this election.

I just find it so hard to believe one university being out of school is the difference between 26 point win and a 4 point win

[GeorgiaModerate]

WTF happened in HD-34? R+26 in a Trump +4 district? Come on.

Students aren't at Kennesaw State right now which was a significant source of the district's Dem electorate.

What percent of KSU students are registered to vote in HD34 rather than their home?

No idea, but it's a big school and the practice isn't uncommon for on-campus students (I was registered at my dorm address many moons ago). If even 5% of the 41000 enrolled students were registered in HD34, it'd be enough to significantly swing this election.

I just find it so hard to believe one university being out of school is the difference between 26 point win and a 4 point win

It's not implausible given the size of the student population and how low-turnout the special election was.

[mds32]

The Aug. 17th CT-SD-36 special will be one to watch. With the Dem-leaning Independent candidate in the race the Republicans have a serious shot at retaking this previously Republican seat. Along with the Republican advantage we've seen in CT special elections the seat is ripe for a Republican flip.

[Roll Roons]

The Aug. 17th CT-SD-36 special will be one to watch. With the Dem-leaning Independent candidate in the race the Republicans have a serious shot at retaking this previously Republican seat. Along with the Republican advantage we've seen in CT special elections the seat is ripe for a Republican flip.

That's in Greenwich right? I actually really like the Republican who's running there. He ran last year and actually got pretty close even as Biden carried the district by a solid amount.

[mds32]

The Aug. 17th CT-SD-36 special will be one to watch. With the Dem-leaning Independent candidate in the race the Republicans have a serious shot at retaking this previously Republican seat. Along with the Republican advantage we've seen in CT special elections the seat is ripe for a Republican flip.

That's in Greenwich right? I actually really like the Republican who's running there. He ran last year and actually got pretty close even as Biden carried the district by a solid amount.

Yes in fact the Republican recently won the endorsement of the Greenwich and Stamford police unions. This race seems to be a clear toss-up.

https://www.greenwichtime.com/elections/article/Republican-Fazio-gets-endorsement-of-police-union-16361472.php

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The Aug. 17th CT-SD-36 special will be one to watch. With the Dem-leaning Independent candidate in the race the Republicans have a serious shot at retaking this previously Republican seat. Along with the Republican advantage we've seen in CT special elections the seat is ripe for a Republican flip.

That's my uncle's district, they've natrualized recently and he's a rich investment bankers. He seemed to be a mostly disinterested obama voter with his wife being a Romney supporter back in 2012 who complained about Obama giving people welfare and bussing people to the poll but got turned off hard by Trump and jumped into the #resist camp. They both probably voted federarly straight-ticket democrat in 2018 and 2020 but am not sure how they are going to vote on a state level.

I should ask him abou it.

[wbrocks67]

The Aug. 17th CT-SD-36 special will be one to watch. With the Dem-leaning Independent candidate in the race the Republicans have a serious shot at retaking this previously Republican seat. Along with the Republican advantage we've seen in CT special elections the seat is ripe for a Republican flip.

That's in Greenwich right? I actually really like the Republican who's running there. He ran last year and actually got pretty close even as Biden carried the district by a solid amount.

Yes in fact the Republican recently won the endorsement of the Greenwich and Stamford police unions. This race seems to be a clear toss-up.

https://www.greenwichtime.com/elections/article/Republican-Fazio-gets-endorsement-of-police-union-16361472.php

Is it really a surprise a Republican got the endorsement of a police union though?

[mds32]

The Aug. 17th CT-SD-36 special will be one to watch. With the Dem-leaning Independent candidate in the race the Republicans have a serious shot at retaking this previously Republican seat. Along with the Republican advantage we've seen in CT special elections the seat is ripe for a Republican flip.

That's in Greenwich right? I actually really like the Republican who's running there. He ran last year and actually got pretty close even as Biden carried the district by a solid amount.

Yes in fact the Republican recently won the endorsement of the Greenwich and Stamford police unions. This race seems to be a clear toss-up.

https://www.greenwichtime.com/elections/article/Republican-Fazio-gets-endorsement-of-police-union-16361472.php

Is it really a surprise a Republican got the endorsement of a police union though?

Local elections are fickle in union states particularly so I don't know.

[mds32]

At this point I am thinking Fazio (R) pulls off the win on Tuesday by two points. Not an earthshattering win but the Republicans will flip the seat. The Republican overperformance in CT Special Elections (similar to OK Democrats), the Independent (D) in the race, the previous 2020 Republican candidate, and with what's going on right now make me think that CT-SD-36 will be the first special election flip of the year.

[Matty]

Fazio just won.

[SnowLabrador]

Okay, so what does this mean for 2022? Red wave?

[Matty]

Okay, so what does this mean for 2022? Red wave?

No

Result was similar to 2020

[Devils30]

This district is like the inverse of ancestral Dems in southern WV.

[jamestroll]

Uh... that connecticut result is not exactly proving my theory that college whites will switch en masse to the GOP now..

The Democrats barely won that area in 2018 and 2020 down ballot and now barely lost in in a far worse environment for Democrats.

[wbrocks67]

Uh... that connecticut result is not exactly proving my theory that college whites will switch en masse to the GOP now..

The Democrats barely won that area in 2018 and 2020 down ballot and now barely lost in in a far worse environment for Democrats.

and the Indie candidate was also a defacto Dem, wasn't he?

This essentially had the same result as 2020.

[Gass3268]

Still a loss and disappointing, but this was actually a better result for the Democrat than I thought it would be. For whatever reason Dems struggle in CT special elections, even happened during the Trump years.