State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3 (user search)
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  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 134853 times)
Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,506
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74
« on: November 02, 2021, 01:41:45 PM »
Quote from: Matty on October 26, 2021, 06:46:09 PM
The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?

Highly educated New England special election voters don't follow national trends. In 2017–18, special elections in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island were among the strongest trends toward Republicans in the country. They all still swung strongly to Democrats in both 2018 and 2020.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,506
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2021, 02:01:45 PM »
Quote from: Roll Roons on November 02, 2021, 01:51:30 PM
Quote from: RoboWop on November 02, 2021, 01:41:45 PM
Quote from: Matty on October 26, 2021, 06:46:09 PM
The dem won 65-34

Substantial over-performance from Biden’s +16 win

Wonder what happened here?

Highly educated New England special election voters don't follow national trends. In 2017–18, special elections in Connecticut, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island were among the strongest trends toward Republicans in the country. They all still swung strongly to Democrats in both 2018 and 2020.

Also there was the special Senate election in Greenwich where a Republican flipped a seat that Biden carried by over 20.

Yes; in addition to the strong education leading to ticket-splitting, the strong tradition of parochialism means it's hard to read even state trends into these races.
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Senator Incitatus
AMB1996
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,506
United States


Political Matrix
E: 2.06, S: 5.74
« Reply #2 on: December 12, 2023, 09:49:53 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on December 12, 2023, 09:18:26 PM
Quote from: Free markets, peace, prosperity on December 12, 2023, 09:12:20 PM
Finished at R +10.96, a 9 point underperformance of Trump 2020 and 26 point underperformance of 2022. Candidate wanted to ban all abortion and porn.

He also wants to ban no-fault divorce, according to what I've seen on Twitter.

This is actually probably the least controversial of the three.
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