State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3 (user search)
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  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3 (search mode)
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Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 134138 times)
Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« on: January 28, 2020, 08:30:15 PM »
Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #1 on: January 28, 2020, 08:33:30 PM »
Quote from: Bagel23 on January 28, 2020, 08:32:44 PM
Quote from: marty on January 28, 2020, 08:30:15 PM
Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #2 on: January 26, 2021, 11:28:00 PM »
That’s not a totally awful performance for dems

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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #3 on: January 26, 2021, 11:33:22 PM »
Trump won SD41 by 21 points
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #4 on: January 26, 2021, 11:50:52 PM »
Chaz is a moron. Trump won Iowa sd41 by 21 pts
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #5 on: March 10, 2021, 12:01:20 AM »
Quote from: 306 on March 09, 2021, 11:50:38 PM
Why did 3 Rs and 2 Ds run for the seat if there's no runoff?

Yea, that was a failure.
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #6 on: April 06, 2021, 08:12:11 PM »
Wow, with 20% of the vote in, the dem is leading in SD22, by 3 votes.

909-906

won the early vote by 20%!!
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #7 on: April 06, 2021, 08:50:27 PM »
FWIW, the oklahoma early vote was a total mirage in SD22.

GOP candidate up 63-36 with 55% of vote in.

just amazing

dem won AB/EV 59-41

losing eday by 35 points
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #8 on: April 06, 2021, 09:02:38 PM »
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #9 on: April 06, 2021, 10:23:54 PM »
Quote from: US Senator Michael Bennet from the State of Colorado on April 06, 2021, 10:11:58 PM
I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #10 on: April 06, 2021, 10:31:17 PM »
Quote from: US Senator Michael Bennet from the State of Colorado on April 06, 2021, 10:28:16 PM
Quote from: marty on April 06, 2021, 10:23:54 PM
Quote from: US Senator Michael Bennet from the State of Colorado on April 06, 2021, 10:11:58 PM
I mean...the OK-22 senate race appears to actually be a Dem over performance relative to...2018.

That’s even if you give the R’a a few extra points this time considering that Bice was an incumbent (and that still matters in local elections)

Yea, but we are talking margin of error here.

More interesting result is still how huge the EV/ED vote divide is.

that isn't going away.
Margin of error or not, any over performance or underperformance can’t be brushed off without some extreme circumstances. This isn’t proof of anything obviously, it’s one tiny race, but it’s a datapoint.

I disagree. The average overperformance compared to 2020 results so far in 2021 state-level special elections has been about 2.3 R.

That doesn't mean jack. squat imo.
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2021, 04:39:47 PM »
Quote from: US Senator Michael Bennet from the State of Colorado on April 07, 2021, 01:12:16 PM
Blue Avs if this was a Republican over performance would be talking about how this is a terrible sign for Dems in the midterms and how the House will certainly flip (which it will but I digress)
Now that it’s a Dem over performance, they chose to ignore the data? Y’all are falling into the Atlas Dem trap of 2020 where all polls that showed Biden/Dems not doing great were “junk” for some reason.
Go ahead, I personally would rather it be on your side anyways lmao.

We have 100+ years of data showing that the party out of power does well in house midterm elections

Senate and gubernatorial more mixed

Repubs need to flip like 5 seats in 2022. That is incredibly easy and should be a layup with good recruiting.

As Harry enten and others have said, out of power parties gaining house seats in midterm races is almost as predictable as the sun rising in the east.

It repubs can’t flip 5 seats, then they deserve a leadership-cleansing.
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #12 on: April 13, 2021, 08:34:03 PM »
They just released the result

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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #13 on: April 13, 2021, 08:37:23 PM »
Quote from: Trends Are Still Real on April 13, 2021, 08:35:39 PM
Really doesn’t bode well for Hassan, but we’ll see I guess.

this result is in line with the 2016 result, which was a hillary win statewide.
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #14 on: April 13, 2021, 09:30:47 PM »
GOP won the CT special election by 7.

who won this in 2020? biden or trump?
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #15 on: April 13, 2021, 09:45:32 PM »
Quote from: Liberal Hack on April 13, 2021, 09:35:49 PM
Quote from: marty on April 13, 2021, 09:30:47 PM
GOP won the CT special election by 7.

who won this in 2020? biden or trump?
Biden, but republican are pretty strong down-ballot in this district.

Thanks for the info.

Nothing to read into much.

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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #16 on: May 18, 2021, 10:32:04 PM »
Not sure what thread this goes in, but the 2 amendment curtailing gov emergency powers are up big
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #17 on: May 19, 2021, 12:19:51 AM »

Both are up like 150,000 votes.

Many are calling it already. The margin might just be too insurmountable at this point.

Plus, this isn't necessarily a partisan vote. There are no party labels on this question.

Not unrealistic to think a lot of dems in PA are done with covid restrictions.
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #18 on: July 13, 2021, 06:30:09 PM »
Any decent people to follow on twitter for state level races like this? Seems like hardly any of the usual election followers are talking about results
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #19 on: July 13, 2021, 07:18:53 PM »
In person early vote just dropped in hd34
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #20 on: July 13, 2021, 07:43:10 PM »
way too early.

this is just in person early vote, which Rs do ok in.

Absentee vote and eday vote still out.

Dems in georgia mainly vote absentee by mail.
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #21 on: July 13, 2021, 08:20:46 PM »
Big vote dump in HD34

Rep 3485
Dem 2549
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #22 on: July 13, 2021, 08:35:26 PM »
Quote from: GeorgiaModerate on July 13, 2021, 08:29:18 PM

Not as much as would be needed.  I'd say Seabaugh is very very very likely to win at this point.

Weirdly enough, about 220 absentees have been counted and Seabaugh won them
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #23 on: July 13, 2021, 09:02:37 PM »
Not sure what the absentee dump will do to the margin, but the R is up 63-37 in HD34 with about 9k total votes reporting.
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Matty
boshembechle
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,961
« Reply #24 on: July 13, 2021, 09:21:46 PM »
Ok….so it appears 100% of vote is in in HD34

The rep won by 26 points

What the hell is that about?
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