State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/DjsokeSpeaking/status/1757494845810082019

[Oryxslayer]

Early vote has Republican Timothy J. Bearden ahead in GA SD-30 by >50%, with a Dem in second place.

HD-125 is currently looking at a R v R runoff between Gary Richardson with over 40% of the vote and CJ Pearson with 28%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Early vote has Republican Timothy J. Bearden ahead in GA SD-30 by >50%, with a Dem in second place.

HD-125 is currently looking at a R v R runoff between Gary Richardson with over 40% of the vote and CJ Pearson with 28%.

FWIW, the state GOP leadership has been working hard against Pearson.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

And that’s that in Pennsylvania. Dems hold the state house and Prokopiac is poised to outperform Biden very heavily.

It was Biden +10 btw.
https://twitter.com/taniel/status/1757571958302986461?s=46

[wbrocks67]

Very curious what the final margin will be but jesus christ, that is just an insane #. GOP continues to drop the ball with VBM.

[Oryxslayer]

Dem currently ahead in the Oklahoma race as well 229-198-10.

Obviously all EV and a small total with 0 precents reporting.

[wbrocks67]

It's wild though that it's 9pm and there's no election day results in PA. Not sure what's going on there.

[Oryxslayer]

GA SD 30 is done:

Timothy J. Bearden (Rep) 4,548, 58.87%,

Ashley Kecskes Godwin (Dem) 1,327, 17.18%

Robert ''Bob'' Smith (Rep) 989,  12.80%

Renae Bell (Rep) 862, 11.16%

Bearden wins outright.

Also the GOP has take a confident lead in their Oklahoma defense after some precincts reported. 51-45

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It’s looking like a 21-point over performance for the Dem in the Oklahoma race.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1757590902908780705

[Oryxslayer]

Oklahoma HD39 Done.

ERICK HARRIS (REP)   2,507, 50.37%

REGAN RAFF (DEM)   2,246, 45.13%

RICHARD PRAWDZIENSKI (LIB)   224 4.5%

Another classic Oklahoma Dems overperforance, this time in a Trump+26 seat, Though not enough.

[wbrocks67]

Wow. Looks like PA/OK should balance out GA lol.

[Oryxslayer]

GA HD-125 done. Safe R seat, what non-Republicans who did turn out would likely have been swayed towards one of the top two republicans given the targeted campaigns and comparatively big spending. Runoff between the two.

Gary Richardson (Rep) 1,691, 37.47%

CJ Pearson (Rep) 1,389, 30.78%
 
Jim Steed (Rep) 794, 17.59%

Kay Turner (Dem) 612, 13.56%

John Turpish (Lib) 27, 0.60%

[wbrocks67]

PA HD140
60% in now

D 77.5%
R 22.5%

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/blockedfreq/status/1757606622623334851?t=M9U1IbCG0K_mScEu04w...

[Oryxslayer]

PA HD140
60% in now

D 77.5%
R 22.5%

7/33 precincts added and only about 1.5K votes added to the total from the EV. Unlike NY-03, this one almost certainly was affected by snow.

[wbrocks67]

PA HD140
67% in

D 73%
R 27%

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/MichaelLangeNYC/status/1757604206817534026?t=9Rq1Y3R3j-tQ-Mc...

Also in NY, the Bronx vote has stalled at 1.4k total votes with some precincts not in. Looking like a Dem underperformance - but still a overall landslide - seemingly cause of this hyperfixation by the Republican on one neighborhood block.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/MichaelLangeNYC/status/1757604206817534026?t=9Rq1Y3R3j-tQ-Mc...
Also in NY, the Bronx vote has stalled at 1.4k total votes with some precincts not in. Looking like a Dem underperformance - but still a overall landslide - seemingly cause of this hyperfixation by the Republican on one neighborhood block.

This takes “all politics is local” to a new level.

[The Economy is Getting Worse]

The R in NY AD77 outperformed Trump by 17.

[wbrocks67]

PA HD140
D 70%
R 30%

80% in

We're likely looking at a D+30-35 win I think at least by the end. Would be a 20-25% overperformance over Biden (+10)

[Duke of York]

PA HD140
D 70%
R 30%

80% in

We're likely looking at a D+30-35 win I think at least by the end. Would be a 20-25% overperformance over Biden (+10)

wow not even close. I heard this district was bluer down ballot but this is insane.

[Oryxslayer]

PA wasn't even close, as noted above. With all precincts in:

Jim Prokopiak (Dem)   6,462, 67.33%   

Candace Cabanas (Rep) 3,079, 32.08%

Write-in    56, 0.58%



As far as the final special election in the Bronx, the NYS BOE has it stalled for a while at 54/63 Precincts.

Landon C. Dais 1,026, 73.60%

Norman Sobe McGill, 288, 20.66%

Others and Write Ins, 80, 5.74%

[Progressive Pessimist]

Wow. Looks like PA/OK should balance out GA lol.

So lean D Pennsylvania, tossup Oklahoma, and safe R Georgia?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

https://twitter.com/MichaelLangeNYC/status/1757604206817534026?t=9Rq1Y3R3j-tQ-Mc...

Also in NY, the Bronx vote has stalled at 1.4k total votes with some precincts not in. Looking like a Dem underperformance - but still a overall landslide - seemingly cause of this hyperfixation by the Republican on one neighborhood block.

For context, this is actually a single housing development, and the R candidate is the president of the residents association of this development (and also lives there).