State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1702478966831927362?t=IH3K1621lNPfUS_hTAtACg...

You vote on Thursday in Nashville.

EDIT: Dem ended up winning 75% to 22.5%, or an overperformance compared to Biden's 45-point margin.

[Atlas Force]

https://twitter.com/maxtmcc/status/1702513108059664671

[wbrocks67]

Interesting how most of the press continues to be silent or completely not acknowledge these continued special election results that show Dems overperforming. Something is not clicking here with actual results and polling.

[Duke of York]

Interesting how most of the press continues to be silent or completely not acknowledge these continued special election results that show Dems overperforming. Something is not clicking here with actual results and polling.

The Dobbs effect

[Landslide Lyndon]

Interesting how most of the press continues to be silent or completely not acknowledge these continued special election results that show Dems overperforming. Something is not clicking here with actual results and polling.

 Not only they don't acknowledge these results, reading their reporting you'll come away almost sure that Republicans are on the verge of sweeping trifectas in Virginia and Kentucky.

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Interesting how most of the press continues to be silent or completely not acknowledge these continued special election results that show Dems overperforming. Something is not clicking here with actual results and polling.

I think it's more that, except in certain high-income suburbs or some racially polarized rural areas, Republicans now have a base that turns out less than Democrats' base.  In low turnout special elections in most areas, Democrats are overperforming.

It's not a coincidence that the one major special election since 2016 where Republicans overperformed was the highest profile one, GA-6 in 2017 (and also in the sort of area where turnout dynamics could still favor Republicans in off cycles).

[Skill and Chance]

Interesting how most of the press continues to be silent or completely not acknowledge these continued special election results that show Dems overperforming. Something is not clicking here with actual results and polling.

I think it's more that, except in certain high-income suburbs or some racially polarized rural areas, Republicans now have a base that turns out less than Democrats' base.  In low turnout special elections in most areas, Democrats are overperforming.

It's not a coincidence that the one major special election since 2016 where Republicans overperformed was the highest profile one, GA-6 in 2017 (and also in the sort of area where turnout dynamics could still favor Republicans in off cycles).

Will be interesting to see if we have actually reached the point where lower turnout helps Dems in MS and VA.   I think we're already there in LA and KY.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota State Representative Ruth Richardson has resigned to become the regional director of Planned Parenthood, thus setting up a special election in 52B to be held on normal election day in November.

This is an essentially Safe DFL seat, I don't have Biden numbers post redistricting but Walz won it by 30 points and even Ellison did by 19, but as always the margins might be interesting. Notably this is actually the seat where I went to work for over a decade, and technically is still where I'm based out of even working at home, although the office will be closing at the end of the month.

But what makes it even more interesting is that precursors to this seat elected both Tim Pawlenty and Doug Wardlow, the rabidly anti-LGBT whackjob who ran for Attorney General in 2018 and probably is why Ellison is AG today. Although he only served a single term after riding the 2010 wave, and at the time the seat didn't include the Mendota area which has always been fairly DFL, even when Pawlenty was in the State House (it wasn't part of the district then either.)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It’s really odd how the polls are showing a tied environment, but special elections, which are very indicative of the national environment, show a Democratic landslide.

https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1703128458447008204?s=20

[Progressive Pessimist]

It’s really odd how the polls are showing a tied environment, but special elections, which are very indicative of the national environment, show a Democratic landslide.

https://twitter.com/ettingermentum/status/1703128458447008204?s=20

They were pretty indicative of the fact that last year was not going to be the expected red wave, so I don't see why that would be much different this year or next year. Even with turnout differences that still was the case ladt year. MN-1 and NE-1 obviously weren't very close in November like they were in the summer, but they were clear indications that Democrats were more motivated than expected.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/chwolfson/status/1703800672968224987

[Duke of York]

https://twitter.com/chwolfson/status/1703800672968224987

Great news. should be an easy hold as a good portion of Pittsburgh is in the district including the neighborhoods of Lawrenceville, Strip District and Morningside. the suburbs of  Etna and Millvale are blue leaning. Shaler township is very competitive. Trump won it very narrowly.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1703920432091402263

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1703920432091402263

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1704220785643020338?t=BUl5VcCaHibws6U01px...

And a tie is a back on with a matching resignation from the GOP. The November seat is safe D. Interestingly, there now are enough seats up to flip control, but that is kinda meaningless in this massive effectively-tied chamber featuring independents.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1704261891957145698

[wbrocks67]

Reminder that tonights PA district was Biden +23 in 2020 and D+27 in 2022.

NH was Trump+0.4 (49.1-48.7) and Hassan+8 (52.5-44.5)

[wbrocks67]

This was the Trump +6 town

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1704283680556941538

[wbrocks67]

All VBM are in for PA HD-21 and Dem is up 82-17.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/ECaliberSeven/status/1704288991883714646

[Brittain33]

This is why I’m not stressing about Biden’s poll numbers yet. There’s time for that next year.

[wbrocks67]

NH turnout was also no slouch - 60% of 2022!

https://twitter.com/imbecilesrus/status/1704293075747475649

[Oryxslayer]

The PA one is looking to finish about 65-35 Dem.

[Duke of York]

The PA one is looking to finish about 65-35 Dem.

It was never in much doubt given part of  Pittsburgh is the district but a nice over performance.

[Person Man]

The PA one is looking to finish about 65-35 Dem.

It was never in much doubt given part of  Pittsburgh is the district but a nice over performance.

If that can be kept up, Pennsylvania looks bullish.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/PoliticalKiwi/status/1704312969549787390?t=jSt_hSYRdSaFpWCep...

Case in point, Shaler township went from Trump+.1 to Dem+10. But this shouldn't be that surprising,  the wealthier areas voters in a place like Allegheny are going to seak out more obscure political information for a special election.  Essentially,  these areas would have both the districts Republicans and it's most motivated Dems.

Another way of looking at it is that the 2022 coalitions with their large Democratic geographic biases seemingly have not changed. But the overall environment has, and in a way that favors the Democrats.