State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Progressive Pessimist]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).

And there goes the scandal point.

Trump has literally the same scandal though so this feels different.  Either no big deal or it makes it more likely we get totally different nominees from both sides.

I'm pretty pessimistic on how Documentgate will unfold, but I will say that if the scandal doesn't end up bad enough to allow Biden the circumstance of facing Trump in a rematch, it's neutralized by Trump's version of it still being objectively worse in stark contrast.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).

And there goes the scandal point.

Trump has literally the same scandal though so this feels different.  Either no big deal or it makes it more likely we get totally different nominees from both sides.

I'm pretty pessimistic on how Documentgate will unfold, but I will say that if the scandal doesn't end up bad enough to allow Biden the circumstance of facing Trump in a rematch, it's neutralized by Trump's version of it still being objectively worse in stark contrast.

Besides knowing Trump he might well get into even worse nonsense in the coming 20 months.

[mpbond]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).

And there goes the scandal point.

Trump has literally the same scandal though so this feels different.  Either no big deal or it makes it more likely we get totally different nominees from both sides.

I'm pretty pessimistic on how Documentgate will unfold, but I will say that if the scandal doesn't end up bad enough to allow Biden the circumstance of facing Trump in a rematch, it's neutralized by Trump's version of it still being objectively worse in stark contrast.

I think the fact that this is happening to both of them simultaneously shows that these documents not being where they are supposed to be is more common than we think and it wouldn't surprise me if more are found in other politicians homes/offices. It may not even be malicious either, it could be just laziness or incompetence. Either way i'm sure both of the parties will treat this fairly and responsibly as always!

[wbrocks67]

A few more ballots were counted, extending Rouse's lead about an extra 0.5%

Rouse (D) 19,784 — 50.72%
Adams (R) 19,187 — 49.19%

Looks like this is the final update:

Rouse (D) 19,923 — 50.84%
Adams (R) 19,227 — 49.07%

Rouse wins by 1.77%

[GeorgiaModerate]

There is yet another vacancy in the Georgia House (the fifth so far) as Mike Glanton (D-Jonesboro) resigned after 14 years in office.  There will be a special election on March 21 to fill the HD-75 vacancy.  The district is Safe D; Glanton was reelected with 89% of the vote in November.

https://www.ajc.com/politics/democratic-state-rep-mike-glanton-resigns-from-georgia-house/45MQYJZGQBGEVFRADBLFIEVKEA/

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/elium2/status/1620611017649852416?s=20&t=E8F66R-HhciJkh8...

[wbrocks67]

Dems did fine in the PA special last night. I think it was like 4% worse than Biden (R+35) but 5% better than the D in the actual senate election in 2020 (R+44)

[Duke of York]

are Democrats favored in all three specials in Pennsylvania today?

[Nyvin]

are Democrats favored in all three specials in Pennsylvania today?

HD-32 is Biden+26

HD-34 is Biden+62

HD-35 is Biden+16

Should all be safe D really,  35 would only flip in a major, big time failure by the PA Dems.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/4st8/status/1623125442252210177?t=wzrZZOeq2cth1q3P9AJrXA&...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

So Democrats overperformed by around 40 points.

[Duke of York]

So Democrats overperformed by around 40 points.

What happened that they overpreformed so much? Did Republicans not show up?

[Oryxslayer]

So Democrats overperformed by around 40 points.

What happened that they overpreformed so much? Did Republicans not show up?

I mean these are all normally Safe Blue seats the GOP wouldn't bother with. Sure they said that they would try this time, given the tightness of the chamber, but really this just seems like the 'forgone conclusion landslide' type of outcome.

[Ferguson97]

So Democrats overperformed by around 40 points.

What happened that they overpreformed so much? Did Republicans not show up?

I think at this point it's safe to say that Democrats just have an advantage in special elections due to recent changes in coalitions.

[wbrocks67]

PA Dems continue to be on beast mode. Huge overperformances last night - the fact that they all even outperformed *Shapiro* is pretty incredible

HD-32
2020 prez: D+26
2022 gov: D+43
2022 HD: D+72 (vs. Green candidate, no R on ballot)
2023 special: D+50

HD-34
2020 prez: D+62
2022 gov: D+73
2023 special: D+76

HD-35
2020 prez: D+16
2022 gov: D+37
2022 HD: D+32
2023 special: D+49

[Duke of York]

PA Dems continue to be on beast mode. Huge overperformances last night - the fact that they all even outperformed *Shapiro* is pretty incredible

HD-32
2020 prez: D+26
2022 gov: D+43
2022 HD: D+72 (vs. Green candidate, no R on ballot)
2023 special: D+50

HD-34
2020 prez: D+62
2022 gov: D+73
2023 special: D+76

HD-35
2020 prez: D+16
2022 gov: D+37
2022 HD: D+32
2023 special: D+49

These are margins that say Republicans didn't even make an effort here especially in HD-35 and also that Democrats remain active and are not asleep at the wheel.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Allegheny county is just one of those areas in the country where the demographics are working hard against the Republicans. It just keeps getting uglier for them with every election.

[Duke of York]

Allegheny county is just one of those areas in the country where the demographics are working hard against the Republicans. It just keeps getting uglier for them with every election.

I heard Democrats used messaging as the the three elections deciding control of the house and that may have helped with turnout. If you tell people their vote will matter they have a higher chance of turning out.

[wbrocks67]

Allegheny county is just one of those areas in the country where the demographics are working hard against the Republicans. It just keeps getting uglier for them with every election.

I heard Democrats used messaging as the the three elections deciding control of the house and that may have helped with turnout. If you tell people their vote will matter they have a higher chance of turning out.

Yeah, from what I can tell, Allegheny Dems put a ton of effort into these specials and didn't take them for granted. The results speak for themselves IMO.

[Duke of York]

Allegheny county is just one of those areas in the country where the demographics are working hard against the Republicans. It just keeps getting uglier for them with every election.

I heard Democrats used messaging as the the three elections deciding control of the house and that may have helped with turnout. If you tell people their vote will matter they have a higher chance of turning out.

Yeah, from what I can tell, Allegheny Dems put a ton of effort into these specials and didn't take them for granted. The results speak for themselves IMO.

agreed. It doesn't explain the lack of turnout by Republicans though. Democrats are clearly still engaged post midterms.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1624928464708018183?t=6Ql2rhb_w6jXhMvQhiMpY...

A very red district, and given past votes, not likely to receive much welcome from his "new" party. It appears a move out of desperation: expecting to easily lose the GOP primary based on the county line endorsement loses, he's gonna try a Hail Mary on the other side of the ballot.

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1628186185234366464

[Gass3268]

Democrat with a big over performance in a white Louisville based district. EDIT: Mitch McConnell's state house seat!

https://twitter.com/DrewSav/status/1628201158027124739?s=20

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1628220096521945089?cxt=HHwWgoC-1aLjzJgtA...

Not only did Trump endorse the crazy lady, but Democrats spent money to boost her.

[Lief 🗽]

Wow, a beautiful night for the Democratic Party (and by extension, America). The voters have spoken and they want Secretary Mayor Pete to keep crashing trains!