State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.

Biden+10 --> Luria+3 --> D+1?

More accurately. Youngkin +10 -> D+1 because it's ridiculous to compare high turnout federal elections to low turnout specials especially when the democrat vote is depedant on low turnout black communities.

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.

Biden+10 --> Luria+3 --> D+1?

More accurately. Youngkin +10 -> D+1 because it's ridiculous to compare high turnout federal elections to low turnout specials especially when the democrat vote is depedant on low turnout black communities.

This seat was Youngkin +4.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/hjessy_/status/1612990245074776064

[Vosem]

Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.

Biden+10 --> Luria+3 --> D+1?

More accurately. Youngkin +10 -> D+1 because it's ridiculous to compare high turnout federal elections to low turnout specials especially when the democrat vote is depedant on low turnout black communities.

Youngkin+4, but yes, you could also look at it that way.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Uncrewed/status/1612880200332677133

Lean of the seat/Virginia statewide result/implied lean of the seat relative to Virginia as a whole:
2016-POTUS: D+0/D+5/R+5
2017-Gov: D+8/D+9/R+1
2018-Sen: D+14/D+16/R+2
2019-StSen: R+1/D+13/R+14 (Kiggans is a beast)
2020-POTUS: D+10/D+10/D+0 (slightly left of the state here, by like 0.1 points)
2020-Sen: D+13/D+12/D+1
2021-Gov: R+4/R+3/R+1
2022-House: D+3/D+4/R+1
2023-StSen: D+1/??/??

With the exception of Kiggans' first victory, which is a massive outlier, since 2016 this seat has always been within 0-2 points of the Virginia statewide result. (To be fair to Democrats, more often slightly right than slightly left). I think "D+1" here implies VA as a whole is basically tied, which given that it's a Likely D state is not that good for Democrats.

(But this is one special result, specials are often weird, and we're getting two more of these today.)

[Oryxslayer]

Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.

Biden+10 --> Luria+3 --> D+1?

More accurately. Youngkin +10 -> D+1 because it's ridiculous to compare high turnout federal elections to low turnout specials especially when the democrat vote is depedant on low turnout black communities.

This seat was Youngkin +4.

Also, reminder that the seat may not be as blue as Biden+10 for 2020, cause of VAs inability at the time to match mail voters to precincts.

[Skill and Chance]

Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.

Biden+10 --> Luria+3 --> D+1?

More accurately. Youngkin +10 -> D+1 because it's ridiculous to compare high turnout federal elections to low turnout specials especially when the democrat vote is depedant on low turnout black communities.

This seat was Youngkin +4.

Also, reminder that the seat may not be as blue as Biden+10 for 2020, cause of VAs inability at the time to match mail voters to precincts.

That's a good point.  Also, CD-07 is almost surely bluer than it looks and CD-10 redder than it looks because of this same issue in Prince William.

[Minnesota Mike]

Glad to see we are overinterpreting low turnout special election margins already. The only thing that really matters is Dems flipped a seat and now have a much safer margin in the VA Sen. Too bad the Dem had to be a former Packer though .

[Skill and Chance]

Glad to see we are overinterpreting low turnout special election margins already. The only thing that really matters is Dems flipped a seat and now have a much safer margin in the VA Sen. Too bad the Dem had to be a former Packer though .

Well, yes, this makes a big difference because it puts them out of lose control because one person gets sick (or accepts a Youngkin appointment) range.

[Person Man]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

These results do not suggest anything about the November 2024 national/federal elections, of course.

Of course not, if only because we don’t know if there’s going to be a major crisis/clusterfick or scandal

[MT Treasurer]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

These results do not suggest anything about the November 2024 national/federal elections, of course.

I would also add that Youngkin himself only won by 2 in what was a perfect storm against Democrats (wrong issues, wrong candidate, wrong national environment, no blunders on the R side & R convention system). If anything, that election actually proved how resilient Democratic strength in Virginia is (it’s interesting how people have recently displayed a habit of downplaying it or overcompensating for having failed to predict Youngkin's win).

[Vosem]

Anyway, results have been finalized (100% counted; these aren't close so I doubt there'll be recounts) in the two House specials:

HD-24:
2023 special: R 63-37
2021 result: R 73-27
2020 POTUS: 67-31
2017 Gov: R 65-34
2016 POTUS: 64-31
Actually an enormous over-performance for Democrats!

HD-35:
2023 special: D 67-33
2021 result: D 69-31
2020 POTUS: D 71-27
2017 Gov: D 70-29
2016 POTUS: D 66-27
A pretty good result for Republicans!

Anyway, the swing from 2021 (note that for SD-7 this is gubernatorial and for the HDs this is House of Assembly, but those are really similar results at ~R+3 statewide) is D+5, D+20 (!), and R+4, for an average swing of D+7, implying something like D+4 statewide...which is actually the exact result from 2022. (In 2022, D+4 statewide in VA implied R+3 nationally. In 2020, it would've meant R+2).

If we do swing from 2020 POTUS instead, we have swings of R+9, D+10, and R+6, for an average swing of R+2. This is actually substantially better for Democrats even though the topline swings are rougher; it implies D+8 statewide in VA, which on 2020-POTUS numbers implies a national environment of D+1, and on 2022-congressional numbers implies D+2.

(Tldr: we had three legislative elections tonight, and they implied a solid R victory in HD-35, a close-and-unsatisfying R victory in SD-7, and then a crazy landslide D victory in HD-24. Pick which narrative you want!)

[jamestroll]

HD 35 was my old district when I lived in Nova. I doubt many people even knew an election was going on.

Candi King won handily in Nov 2021 despite a close call in a January special election in 2021 for HD-02.

[Dan the Roman]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

These results do not suggest anything about the November 2024 national/federal elections, of course.

I would also add that Youngkin himself only won by 2 in what was a perfect storm against Democrats (wrong issues, wrong candidate, wrong national environment, no blunders on the R side & R convention system). If anything, that election actually proved how resilient Democratic strength in Virginia is (it’s interesting how people have recently displayed a habit of downplaying it or overcompensating for having failed to predict Youngkin's win).

Why I was skeptical of "lean r" predictions for the state senate following the 2021 elections. If that was the GOP peak, then they had no margin for error. Literally none if there are only 20 Youngkin seats. 2021 was close enough it is quite plausible Youngkin would have lost post-Dobbs in 2022.

The GOP has bounced back from its late 2010s nadir, but it is still a very different state for them with a low ceiling.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What's great for Rouse is that he has a perfect safe D seat to run in for the November election that has no incumbent.   SD-22 is Biden+20 and covers a good portion of the old SD-7.   He'll have that seat all decade easily.

I think he challenges Kiggans for the CD in 2024.

Not sure how wise that would be given he underperformed Luria's loss at the CD level meaningfully tonight.

Low turnout special elections for local offices always give weird swings. What matters most is that this is a flip and he now has a springboard to run for congress.

[wbrocks67]

What's great for Rouse is that he has a perfect safe D seat to run in for the November election that has no incumbent.   SD-22 is Biden+20 and covers a good portion of the old SD-7.   He'll have that seat all decade easily.

I think he challenges Kiggans for the CD in 2024.

Not sure how wise that would be given he underperformed Luria's loss at the CD level meaningfully tonight.

Not sure why you'd compare a higher turnout midterm to a lower turnout special (even though turnout was pretty damn good for a January special)

Luria likely would've lost in last nights electorate, given how even more R-skewing it was than 2022, so it's pretty impressive that Rouse still won. Just goes to show the GOP brand is still toxic in swingy areas, especially on abortion.

[wbrocks67]

Glad to see we are overinterpreting low turnout special election margins already. The only thing that really matters is Dems flipped a seat and now have a much safer margin in the VA Sen. Too bad the Dem had to be a former Packer though .

I don't get this comment, considering most of the 2022 special elections post-Roe *were* indicative of the general themes that would take us into the midterms lol

[Pollster]

Looks like last night's VA results continued the November 2022 patterns of Republicans overperforming in safe D areas but Democrats showing enormous resilience in more competitive areas. The Dem overperformance in the safe R seat is a bit new and we'll need to see if that becomes a pattern as well or is restricted only to special elections.

This dynamic is a mixed bag for Andy Beshear who will need rock solid margins and likely even overperformances in Kentucky's solid blue counties to win re-election (though overperforming in safe R areas, assuming that pattern holds, will help him enormously).

[jamestroll]

I am unsure whether MI or VA will vote further left in 2024.

MI did have better overall results than VA the past couple of years, but VA did vote to the left of Michigan in the house vote.

2021 was really state specific issues along with the fact that NoVa was never going to vote like a major urban city county.

Can't wait for 2025 when the Democrats do just a bit better than 2021 in Nova but much better in Richmond and Hampton Roads and win the governorship.

[jamestroll]

In little known special elections the online right can enjoy their temporary fantasy land of Nova being a Republican/Swing area.





The general election results makes complete sense for generic candidates in that district.

[Mr.Phips]

In little known special elections the online right can enjoy their temporary fantasy land of Nova being a Republican/Swing area.





The general election results makes complete sense for generic candidates in that district.

This has always been a district where Dems have relied on lower propensity minority voters.  They actually lost this as an open seat in 2015 (after finally narrowly winning it in 2013).  Of course it flipped right back in 2017.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I'm very pleased that we're still winning on the backs of Republicans unnecessarily wading into the abortion issue. Suck it, Dumbkin! Hopefully Democrats can take back the House of Delegates and keep the Senate this November and inconvenience his phony ass even more. 

[wbrocks67]

A few more ballots were counted, extending Rouse's lead about an extra 0.5%

Rouse (D) 19,784 — 50.72%
Adams (R) 19,187 — 49.19%

[Skill and Chance]

A few more ballots were counted, extending Rouse's lead about an extra 0.5%

Rouse (D) 19,784 — 50.72%
Adams (R) 19,187 — 49.19%

Interesting.  As of 2022, VA allows same day voter registration, but they treat the ballots as provisional until they can verify them a few days later.  As of 2020, VA also allows absentees postmarked by election day to count if they arrive by the Friday  after.  In this case, these ballots had a meaningful impact.  In 2020, the ED provisional vote would skew R and the latest-arriving mail-ins would be less D than average.  It looks like we have reverted to the pre-COVID pattern of these votes being very D. 

[It’s so Joever]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).

And there goes the scandal point.

[Skill and Chance]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).

And there goes the scandal point.

Trump has literally the same scandal though so this feels different.  Either no big deal or it makes it more likely we get totally different nominees from both sides.