State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/notlarrysabato/status/1612985724302663685

[Nyvin]

It's crazy how underdiscussed this race it, it will make or break the GOP trifecta in Virginia. Youngkin having another 2 years of a trifecta could make a huge difference in a future presidential run.

Youngkin never had a trifecta, and R's held this seat prior.  Rouse winning would make the Senate go from 21D-19R to 22D-18R.

[Gracile]

Yeah, Rouse has this.

[CityofSinners]

This election feels both like a re-run of 2022 and a preview of the VA 2023 election. Dems go all-in on abortion and repubs do the same for crime/inflation.

[Oryxslayer]

The precinct map on VAP looks like an R win, but the few black D precincts are just so lopsided.

It's also nice to see black Dems be able to win more and more regularly outside of 40%+ black districts.

You do know the mail/early aren't yet allocated to precinct because of VA law?

[ProgressiveModerate]

The precinct map on VAP looks like an R win, but the few black D precincts are just so lopsided.

It's also nice to see black Dems be able to win more and more regularly outside of 40%+ black districts.

You do know the mail/early aren't yet allocated to precinct because of VA law?

Oh that makes a lot more sense. I was like goddam

[Gass3268]

This is great because Republicans+Morrissey no longer have the trifecta in VA.

[libertpaulian]

Rs have held this seat for almost 30 years. This is historic.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1612990199239446528

[libertpaulian]

https://twitter.com/GalenMetzger1/status/1612990199239446528

The Bitecofer Theory destroyed yet again.

[Skill and Chance]

Winning by 0.9% in a Youngkin +4.3 seat would verbatim be consistent with holding at 22D on the new map, with the potential 23rd D seat (Youngkin +5.2, also in Hampton Roads) going to a recount.  The 21st D seat on the new map is meaningfully easier than this one at Youngkin +0.6 and it's also in high turnout outer NOVA.

[Nyvin]

What's great for Rouse is that he has a perfect safe D seat to run in for the November election that has no incumbent.   SD-22 is Biden+20 and covers a good portion of the old SD-7.   He'll have that seat all decade easily.

[Skill and Chance]

What's great for Rouse is that he has a perfect safe D seat to run in for the November election that has no incumbent.   SD-22 is Biden+20 and covers a good portion of the old SD-7.   He'll have that seat all decade easily.

I think he challenges Kiggans for the CD in 2024.

Not sure how wise that would be given he underperformed Luria's loss at the CD level meaningfully tonight.

[Vosem]

This is great because Republicans+Morrissey no longer have the trifecta in VA.

Morrissey is an independent, sure, but he's representing a deep-blue seat and usually votes with Democrats.

Anyway, I think the VA-7 result is fine for national Republicans. It represents a small swing right from the 2022 results (Luria won here by 3 points, Rouse by just 1) in a place that's trending Democratic really fast (Clinton+1, Biden+10). By swing from 2020 this suggests a national environment of R+4, and by swing from 2022 it's R+5. (Also, definitely a point of evidence against Democrats usually having a turnout advantage in specials. OTOH, the fair reaction would be that traditional majority parties often have turnout advantages in specials, so maybe this result could coexist with Democrats usually having a turnout advantage in special elections).

It's kind of a bad result for Virginia Republicans, though; as mentioned above this is a seat they had held for decades, and their victory here was one of a few bright spots in 2017. They probably don't have a route to a state Senate majority without this seat, or ones much like it.

[Ferguson97]

Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.

[Skill and Chance]

This is great because Republicans+Morrissey no longer have the trifecta in VA.

Morrissey is an independent, sure, but he's representing a deep-blue seat and usually votes with Democrats.

Anyway, I think the VA-7 result is fine for national Republicans. It represents a small swing right from the 2022 results (Luria won here by 3 points, Rouse by just 1) in a place that's trending Democratic really fast (Clinton+1, Biden+10). By swing from 2020 this suggests a national environment of R+4, and by swing from 2022 it's R+5. (Also, definitely a point of evidence against Democrats usually having a turnout advantage in specials. OTOH, the fair reaction would be that traditional majority parties often have turnout advantages in specials, so maybe this result could coexist with Democrats usually having a turnout advantage in special elections).

It's kind of a bad result for Virginia Republicans, though; as mentioned above this is a seat they had held for decades, and their victory here was one of a few bright spots in 2017. They probably don't have a route to a state Senate majority without this seat, or ones much like it.

While I agree with your points overall, it should be noted that VA Dems have consistently performed poorly in specials south of the DC area.  Historically, it's been similar to the R turnout machine in TX specials.  There was a special in the Hampton Roads senate district adjacent to this one in 2014 and the Dem only won an Obama +5-10 seat by <10 votes!

I would describe recent Dem results in VA as "good enough to win statewide by 2012-16 margins."  Looks like Biden's 2020 #'s really were a one-off, though.

[CityofSinners]

The nice thing for partisans is, that you have so many comparisons to make the result look good for your side.
Republicans can talk about the seat being Biden+10 and trending left, their candidate outperformed Kiggans by 2 points, abortion not hurting them that much.
Democrats can talk about the seat being in republican hands for 30 years, Youngkin winning the seat by 4 and their prior bad performance in VA special elections.

[Vosem]

Democrats focused heavily on abortion for this campaign. It's an absolute killer for the GOP, my god.

Biden+10 --> Luria+3 --> D+1?

No, it isn't. And kind of too bad, because the GOP would be a better party if they kicked this one.

This is great because Republicans+Morrissey no longer have the trifecta in VA.

Morrissey is an independent, sure, but he's representing a deep-blue seat and usually votes with Democrats.

Anyway, I think the VA-7 result is fine for national Republicans. It represents a small swing right from the 2022 results (Luria won here by 3 points, Rouse by just 1) in a place that's trending Democratic really fast (Clinton+1, Biden+10). By swing from 2020 this suggests a national environment of R+4, and by swing from 2022 it's R+5. (Also, definitely a point of evidence against Democrats usually having a turnout advantage in specials. OTOH, the fair reaction would be that traditional majority parties often have turnout advantages in specials, so maybe this result could coexist with Democrats usually having a turnout advantage in special elections).

It's kind of a bad result for Virginia Republicans, though; as mentioned above this is a seat they had held for decades, and their victory here was one of a few bright spots in 2017. They probably don't have a route to a state Senate majority without this seat, or ones much like it.

While I agree with your points overall, it should be noted that VA Dems have consistently performed poorly in specials south of the DC area.  Historically, it's been similar to the R turnout machine in TX specials.  There was a special in the Hampton Roads senate district adjacent to this one in 2014 and the Dem only won an Obama +5-10 seat by <10 votes!

I would describe recent Dem results in VA as "good enough to win statewide by 2012-16 margins."  Looks like Biden's 2020 #'s really were a one-off, though.

Yeah, my post points out that one reason this result might not imply as strong an outcome for the GOP as it seems is that this is a historically GOP area, and both parties often overperform in specials in places that are trending against them. You get way fewer new registrations for specials, and relatively new voters are less likely to hear about them, so you get an older electorate -- not just in years-lived, but in years-lived-in-the-constituency.

There are two other special elections going on in VA tonight -- one in a safe D area, and one in a safe R -- how are they doing?

[libertpaulian]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).

[Roll Roons]

There are two other special elections going on in VA tonight -- one in a safe D area, and one in a safe R -- how are they doing?

I think the Dem in Fairfax is doing worse than McAuliffe, let alone Biden. The Republican in Appalachia is also underperforming Trump by a decent amount.

[Skill and Chance]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).

This result 1. wasn't all that amazing for Dems (their candidate did 2% worse than Luria in 2022) and more importantly 2. shouldn't be extrapolated outside of VA.

[libertpaulian]

There are two other special elections going on in VA tonight -- one in a safe D area, and one in a safe R -- how are they doing?

I think the Dem in Fairfax is doing worse than McAuliffe and the Republican in Appalachia is also underperforming Trump by a decent amount.

lol nothing makes sense anymore

[Spectator]

What's great for Rouse is that he has a perfect safe D seat to run in for the November election that has no incumbent.   SD-22 is Biden+20 and covers a good portion of the old SD-7.   He'll have that seat all decade easily.

I think he challenges Kiggans for the CD in 2024.

Not sure how wise that would be given he underperformed Luria's loss at the CD level meaningfully tonight.

Minority turnout is always lower than white turnout in off years.

I think Rouse will run against Kiggans at some point, either in 2024 or 2026. He has the ambition for it.

[Skill and Chance]

There are two other special elections going on in VA tonight -- one in a safe D area, and one in a safe R -- how are they doing?

I think the Dem in Fairfax is doing worse than McAuliffe and the Republican in Appalachia is also underperforming Trump by a decent amount.

lol nothing makes sense anymore

Nah, it's just mean reversion in specials most likely.   There's also this weird thing where VA Dems have always done better in the state senate.  They were only ever below 19/40 seats for one cycle (2003-07), while they got consistently blown out in the HoD for a couple decades. 

[libertpaulian]

The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.

The most likely outcome in such a scenario is a reelected Biden, Speaker Jeffries, and McConnell controlling the Senate calendar once again (unless Sherrod Brown pulls off a miracle).

This result 1. wasn't all that amazing for Dems (their candidate did 2% worse than Luria in 2022) and more importantly 2. shouldn't be extrapolated outside of VA.

All true, but this is a special election in the dead of winter during the first full "normal" work week after the holiday season. People have just gotten over Christmas, Hanukkah, and/or NYE celebrations and are still trying to get back in a political mood.