State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2024, 11:18:43 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 37 38 39 40 41 [42] 43 44 45 46 47 ... 60
Author Topic: State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3  (Read 134272 times)
Spectator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,383
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1025 on: January 10, 2023, 11:54:09 AM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on January 10, 2023, 11:31:32 AM
Interesting, Kiggans only just barely won this district in 2019 and actually lost it in last year's House race



VPAP is also being seriously misleading here. Completely ignoring 2020 and 2018.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,546


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1026 on: January 10, 2023, 05:11:54 PM »
Quote from: Spectator on January 10, 2023, 11:54:09 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on January 10, 2023, 11:31:32 AM
Interesting, Kiggans only just barely won this district in 2019 and actually lost it in last year's House race



VPAP is also being seriously misleading here. Completely ignoring 2020 and 2018.

And also, I thought Hillary won here in 2016. 
Logged
BenjiG98
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 389
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.00, S: -2.26

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1027 on: January 10, 2023, 05:37:32 PM »
Quote from: Mr.Phips on January 10, 2023, 05:11:54 PM
Quote from: Spectator on January 10, 2023, 11:54:09 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on January 10, 2023, 11:31:32 AM
Interesting, Kiggans only just barely won this district in 2019 and actually lost it in last year's House race



VPAP is also being seriously misleading here. Completely ignoring 2020 and 2018.

And also, I thought Hillary won here in 2016. 
She did win it by 0.3%.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,680
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1028 on: January 10, 2023, 06:00:02 PM »
Quote from: BenjiG98 on January 10, 2023, 05:37:32 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on January 10, 2023, 05:11:54 PM
Quote from: Spectator on January 10, 2023, 11:54:09 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on January 10, 2023, 11:31:32 AM
Interesting, Kiggans only just barely won this district in 2019 and actually lost it in last year's House race



VPAP is also being seriously misleading here. Completely ignoring 2020 and 2018.

And also, I thought Hillary won here in 2016. 
She did win it by 0.3%.

Is this a result of the issue where VA didn't allocate absentees by precinct until literally last year?
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,546


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1029 on: January 10, 2023, 06:03:00 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on January 10, 2023, 06:00:02 PM
Quote from: BenjiG98 on January 10, 2023, 05:37:32 PM
Quote from: Mr.Phips on January 10, 2023, 05:11:54 PM
Quote from: Spectator on January 10, 2023, 11:54:09 AM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on January 10, 2023, 11:31:32 AM
Interesting, Kiggans only just barely won this district in 2019 and actually lost it in last year's House race



VPAP is also being seriously misleading here. Completely ignoring 2020 and 2018.

And also, I thought Hillary won here in 2016. 
She did win it by 0.3%.

Is this a result of the issue where VA didn't allocate absentees by precinct until literally last year?

If that’s the case, then maybe Turpin actually won in 2019?
Logged
Person Man
Angry_Weasel
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 36,689
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1030 on: January 10, 2023, 06:11:17 PM »
At least if Democrats win tonight, it basically kills Youngkin's legislative agenda.
Logged
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,798


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1031 on: January 10, 2023, 07:27:58 PM »
Apparently there's additional special elections in Safe R hd24, and Safe D Hd35, but you wouldn't know it from the media coverage.
Logged
CityofSinners
Rookie
**
Posts: 207


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1032 on: January 10, 2023, 07:31:04 PM »
https://twitter.com/vpapupdates Has live coverage
Logged
GALeftist
sansymcsansface
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,741


Political Matrix
E: -7.29, S: -9.48

P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1033 on: January 10, 2023, 08:00:59 PM »
I *think* I'd rather be Rouse with 10k early ballots outstanding? Knock on wood
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,943


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1034 on: January 10, 2023, 08:02:41 PM »
Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.
Logged
Duke of York
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,961


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1035 on: January 10, 2023, 08:07:18 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on January 10, 2023, 08:02:41 PM
Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.

one election is not indicative of a trend.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,532
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1036 on: January 10, 2023, 08:09:37 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on January 10, 2023, 08:02:41 PM
Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.

It's more so that Democrats in Virginia have to relay on minority turnout, which has been down since Biden was elected.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,662
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1037 on: January 10, 2023, 08:10:57 PM »
Quote from: GALeftist on January 10, 2023, 08:00:59 PM
I *think* I'd rather be Rouse with 10k early ballots outstanding? Knock on wood

Also looks like the more Republican northern part of the district is reporting faster than the Democratic southern part.
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,943


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1038 on: January 10, 2023, 08:16:00 PM »
Quote from: Duke of York on January 10, 2023, 08:07:18 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on January 10, 2023, 08:02:41 PM
Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.

one election is not indicative of a trend.

2021 and 2022 were already pretty bad for Democrats in this state.
Logged
CityofSinners
Rookie
**
Posts: 207


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1039 on: January 10, 2023, 08:22:40 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on January 10, 2023, 08:02:41 PM
Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.
How much did Beshear or Edwards shift their states to the left?
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,532
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1040 on: January 10, 2023, 08:24:31 PM »
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,532
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1041 on: January 10, 2023, 08:26:50 PM »
Looks like Adams narrowly won in person early, Rouse is winning absentees big with still a 1/3rd left to count.
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,966


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1042 on: January 10, 2023, 08:30:34 PM »
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on January 10, 2023, 08:16:00 PM
Quote from: Duke of York on January 10, 2023, 08:07:18 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on January 10, 2023, 08:02:41 PM
Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.

one election is not indicative of a trend.

2021 and 2022 were already pretty bad for Democrats in this state.

2022 was mixed, a bad 2022 would have seen Spanberger lose. It does seem like Republicans have rebounded a bit in Hampton Roads and near Richmond but not at all in NoVa.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,662
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1043 on: January 10, 2023, 08:30:55 PM »
Rouse pulls ahead by 623 votes.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,662
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1044 on: January 10, 2023, 08:31:46 PM »
Quote from: Brittain33 on January 10, 2023, 08:30:34 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on January 10, 2023, 08:16:00 PM
Quote from: Duke of York on January 10, 2023, 08:07:18 PM
Quote from: Lief 🐋 on January 10, 2023, 08:02:41 PM
Could Virginia be competitive in 2024? I could see it being closer than a state like Michigan at least. Youngkin seems to have really shifted the state to the right.

one election is not indicative of a trend.

2021 and 2022 were already pretty bad for Democrats in this state.

2022 was mixed, a bad 2022 would have seen Spanberger lose. It does seem like Republicans have rebounded a bit in Hampton Roads and near Richmond but not at all in NoVa.

Hung Cao did incredible in VA-10, but I assume that's a fluke and not a new norm.
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,532
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1045 on: January 10, 2023, 08:31:57 PM »
5 precincts left, Rouse up by 623 votes.  
Logged
Gass3268
Moderator
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,532
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1046 on: January 10, 2023, 08:33:35 PM »
Logged
Spectator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,383
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1047 on: January 10, 2023, 08:39:11 PM »
Luria overwhelming won 4/5 of the remaining election day precincts. Rouse has this.
Logged
Ferguson97
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 28,142
United States


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1048 on: January 10, 2023, 08:42:36 PM »
It's crazy how underdiscussed this race it, it will make or break the GOP trifecta in Virginia. Youngkin having another 2 years of a trifecta could make a huge difference in a future presidential run.
Logged
ProgressiveModerate
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,742


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1049 on: January 10, 2023, 08:42:58 PM »
The precinct map on VAP looks like an R win, but the few black D precincts are just so lopsided.

It's also nice to see black Dems be able to win more and more regularly outside of 40%+ black districts.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 37 38 39 40 41 [42] 43 44 45 46 47 ... 60  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.056 seconds with 11 queries.