State Legislature Special Election Megathread v3

[Skill and Chance]

Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting

Please stahp

Why are you acting like he’s trolling when he’s asking a legitimate question

Obviously the R is favored (Probably strongly)  based on the early vote but what’s the EV history in this district? Is it conclusive? Or is it still possibly a tight race?

If it doesn’t end up being a tight race then I kind of wonder why that is tbh. Does Gates have good connections within the district? I know a lot of outside D money went into this one.

In a normal election, it is possibly the deciding race for control of the state house in a statistical sense.  In the special, everyone involved seemed to be behaving as if the Republican was obviously going to win.  This is unsurprising though, because Texas Republicans have a long history of running up the score in special elections vs. GE numbers, similar to Georgia.  This was true even in 2018.

[ON Progressive]

Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting

Please stahp

Why are you acting like he’s trolling when he’s asking a legitimate question

Obviously the R is favored (Probably strongly)  based on the early vote but what’s the EV history in this district? Is it conclusive? Or is it still possibly a tight race?

If it doesn’t end up being a tight race then I kind of wonder why that is tbh. Does Gates have good connections within the district? I know a lot of outside D money went into this one.

We can pretty much say this is over on the early vote. While Ds IIRC tend to do better on Election Day in Texas, they don't do dramatically better. And they'd have to, since you'd need nearly 60% of election day votes (assuming 12000 e-day votes) to see Dems win here at this point.

As for why it went this way (in order of my personal view of importance):
1) This district's Democratic base is mostly voters who aren't reliable for turning out in special elections, such as Latino/Hispanic voters.
2) This is a pretty Republican seat still. It's not as non-Atlas red as it used to be, but there's still a fair ways to go before you consider this a purple seat.
3) Gates has a ton of money, which let him severely outspend Democrats even with the outside money that came in.
4) Eliz ran a terrible campaign according to people I know on the ground, basically only targeting solidly Democratic voters in her GOTV and not even attempting persuasion in a district that you need crossover votes to win as a Democrat.

[Bidenworth2020]

Pretty much what I expected. If democrats are flipping Cruz seats, even marginal ones, that depend on low propensity Hispanics for a democratic victory as well as a sizable chunk of the white suburban vote, things are really looking horrible for republicans. This result is pretty much in line with what we have seen for the past few months-- slight democratic tilt, but not comparable to the 2017 special elections.

[Nyvin]

Why are you guys already throwing in towel? It’s just early vote

Dude this isn't even good trolling.

I’m genuinely curious

Early vote tells you jack about ED voting

Please stahp

Why are you acting like he’s trolling when he’s asking a legitimate question

Obviously the R is favored (Probably strongly)  based on the early vote but what’s the EV history in this district? Is it conclusive? Or is it still possibly a tight race?

If it doesn’t end up being a tight race then I kind of wonder why that is tbh. Does Gates have good connections within the district? I know a lot of outside D money went into this one.

It voted 43.01% Hillary and 53.21% Trump in 2016 if that helps.

[Annatar]

All the numbers are in for GA 171, Trump won this seat 62.2-36.5 over Clinton, the margin being 25.7%. Today the combined R vote was 66.7% to the D vote of 33.3%. R Margin was 33.4%.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems need to hang their heads in shame over this one. What a f***** embarrassment.

[Duke of York]

Dems need to hang their heads in shame over this one. What a f***** embarrassment.

Over the Georgia result are you serious? Thats a ruby red district

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems need to hang their heads in shame over this one. What a f***** embarrassment.

Over the Georgia result are you serious? Thats a ruby red district

I was referring to TX-HD28.

I'm already irritated with the Connecticut special election loss.

[Annatar]

Results in fully for TX HD 28, GOP margin is roughly 16%, somewhat better than Trump's 10% margin but not really a surprise, consistent with post 2018 midterm trend of democrats running slightly ahead to behind Clinton in special elections.

I would just add that turnout was very healthy for a special election at 20%, often these kinds of elections have 10% turnout.

[Yellowhammer]

Dems need to hang their heads in shame over this one. What a f***** embarrassment.

Over the Georgia result are you serious? Thats a ruby red district

I was referring to TX-HD28.

I'm already irritated with the Connecticut special election loss.

Democratic special election advantage is all but gone, perhaps even beginning to invert into a Republican advantage.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems need to hang their heads in shame over this one. What a f***** embarrassment.

Over the Georgia result are you serious? Thats a ruby red district

I was referring to TX-HD28.

I'm already irritated with the Connecticut special election loss.

Democratic special election advantage is all but gone, perhaps even beginning to invert into a Republican advantage.

Check yourself:

https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1222375268402286593?s=21

[SnowLabrador]

Dems need to hang their heads in shame over this one. What a f***** embarrassment.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Last two weeks of specials:

CT-151:

Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Harry_Arora.jpg

Harry Arora (R)    54.4    2,345
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Moss.jpg

Cheryl Moss (D)    45.6    1,965
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 4,310


MN-60A Primaries:

   Sydney Jordan (D)    28.5    1,318
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Jessica Intermill (D)    21.1    976
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Sonia Neculescu (D)    17.2    792
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Amal Ibrahim (D)    7.4    342
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Aaron Neumann (D)    5.8    269
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Zachary Wefel (D)    3.9    179
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Aswar_Rahman.png

Aswar Rahman (D)    3.8    175
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Susan Whitaker (D)    3.7    171
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Saciido Shaie (D)    3.4    157
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Piyali Nath Dalal (D)    3.2    149
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Mohamed Issa Barre (D)    1.9    89
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 4,617
Republican primary election
The Republican primary was canceled due to lack of interest.

NH Merrimack 24 Primaries:

   Kathleen Martins (D)    100    66
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 66
Republican primary election
Special Republican primary for New Hampshire House of Representatives Merrimack 24
Elliot Axelman defeated John Leavitt and David Ross in the special Republican primary for New Hampshire House of Representatives Merrimack 24 on January 21, 2020.

Candidate   %   Votes
✔   
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Elliot Axelman (R)    59.0    311
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/John_A._Leavitt.jpg

John Leavitt (R)    21.8    115
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David Ross (R)   19.2    101


GA-171:

   Joe Campbell (R)    58.3    2,830
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Jewell Howard (D)    33.4    1,620
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Tommy Akridge (R)    8.4    407
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 4,857


TX-28 Runoff:

   Gary Gates (R)    58.0    17,457
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Elizabeth_Markowitz.jpg

Elizabeth Markowitz (D)    42.0    12,617
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 30,074

TX-100 Runoff:

   Lorraine Birabil (D)    66.3    1,643
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James Armstrong III (D)    33.7    836
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 2,479


TX-148 Runoff:

   Anna Eastman (D)    65.5    4,527
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/17F4140D-599C-4C7F-AEF9-024CB18B3CE5.jpg

Luis LaRotta (R)    34.5    2,388

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

This thread never covered the MI-34 primary back on 1/7, so here's that:

   Cynthia Neeley (D)    29.1    1,158
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Sean Croudy (D)    14.3    570
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Santino Guerra (D)    11.5    458
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Charis Lee (D)    10.7    427
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Claudia Milton (D)    9.9    394
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Michael Clack (D)    7.8    309
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Monica Galloway (D)    7.6    302
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Candice Mushatt (D)    6.0    238
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Sherwood Pea Jr. (D)    2.3    90
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Vincent Lang (D)    0.7    27
Ballotpedia Logo

There were no incumbents in this race. Source

Total votes: 3,973
Republican primary election
Special Republican primary for Michigan House of Representatives District 34
Adam Ford advanced from the special Republican primary for Michigan House of Representatives District 34 on January 7, 2020.

Candidate   %   Votes
✔   
Image of https://s3.amazonaws.com/ballotpedia-api4/files/thumbs/100/100/Adam_Ford.jpg

Adam Ford (R)    100    137



------------------


Schedule:

2/4: MA 32nd Middlesex Primary, MN-30A, 60A, RI-56 Primary, GA-13 Jungle
2/11: AR-34 D Primary Runoff
2/25: PA-190, KY-67, KY-99
3/3: AR-22, AR-34, CA-28 JUNGLE, GA-13 Runoff (if needed), RI-56, ME-128, MA 32nd Middlesex, MA Primaries: Second Hampden & Hampshire, Plymouth & Barnstable, 37th Middlesex, Third Bristol
3/10: MI-34, NH Merrimack 24
3/17: PA 8, 18, 58
3/31: MA Second Hampden & Hampshire, Plymouth & Barnstable, 37th Middlesex, Third Bristol

[Kevinstat]

Special election set to fill House District 128 seat

Deadline for filing "caucus" (municipal committee) paperwork (Democrats, Republicans and Green( Independent)s) / nominating petitions (everyone else):  5 p.m. on Thursday, January 23, 2020.
Write-in candidate deadline:  5 p.m. on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Election date: Tuesday, March 3, 2020 (to coincide with Maine's Presidential Primaries and a referendum on whether or not to block the law passed last year eliminating all excemptions (philisophical and religious) to Maine's vaccination requirement for attending public schools)

Candidates who will be on the ballot:

Garrel R. Craig (R) - former State Rep. (served Dec. 2016 to Dec. 2018; unseated the guy who just died in 2016 only to be unseated himself in a 2018 rematch, although 2018 was a very Democratic year)
Kevin J. M. O'Connell (D) - former Mayor of Brewer

No idea if any write-in candidates declared by this past Tuesday's write-in candidate deadline.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Special election set to fill House District 128 seat

Deadline for filing "caucus" (municipal committee) paperwork (Democrats, Republicans and Green( Independent)s) / nominating petitions (everyone else):  5 p.m. on Thursday, January 23, 2020.
Write-in candidate deadline:  5 p.m. on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Election date: Tuesday, March 3, 2020 (to coincide with Maine's Presidential Primaries and a referendum on whether or not to block the law passed last year eliminating all excemptions (philisophical and religious) to Maine's vaccination requirement for attending public schools)

Candidates who will be on the ballot:

Garrel R. Craig (R) - former State Rep. (served Dec. 2016 to Dec. 2018; unseated the guy who just died in 2016 only to be unseated himself in a 2018 rematch, although 2018 was a very Democratic year)
Kevin J. M. O'Connell (D) - former Mayor of Brewer

No idea if any write-in candidates declared by this past Tuesday's write-in candidate deadline.

Rs win by at least 5%

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Special election set to fill House District 128 seat

Deadline for filing "caucus" (municipal committee) paperwork (Democrats, Republicans and Green( Independent)s) / nominating petitions (everyone else):  5 p.m. on Thursday, January 23, 2020.
Write-in candidate deadline:  5 p.m. on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Election date: Tuesday, March 3, 2020 (to coincide with Maine's Presidential Primaries and a referendum on whether or not to block the law passed last year eliminating all excemptions (philisophical and religious) to Maine's vaccination requirement for attending public schools)

Candidates who will be on the ballot:

Garrel R. Craig (R) - former State Rep. (served Dec. 2016 to Dec. 2018; unseated the guy who just died in 2016 only to be unseated himself in a 2018 rematch, although 2018 was a very Democratic year)
Kevin J. M. O'Connell (D) - former Mayor of Brewer

No idea if any write-in candidates declared by this past Tuesday's write-in candidate deadline.

Rs win by at least 5%

Seems like any easy Dem hold if it’s on the day of the primary

[Kevinstat]

Special election set to fill House District 128 seat

Deadline for filing "caucus" (municipal committee) paperwork (Democrats, Republicans and Green( Independent)s) / nominating petitions (everyone else):  5 p.m. on Thursday, January 23, 2020.
Write-in candidate deadline:  5 p.m. on Tuesday, January 28, 2020.
Election date: Tuesday, March 3, 2020 (to coincide with Maine's Presidential Primaries and a referendum on whether or not to block the law passed last year eliminating all excemptions (philisophical and religious) to Maine's vaccination requirement for attending public schools)

Candidates who will be on the ballot:

Garrel R. Craig (R) - former State Rep. (served Dec. 2016 to Dec. 2018; unseated the guy who just died in 2016 only to be unseated himself in a 2018 rematch, although 2018 was a very Democratic year)
Kevin J. M. O'Connell (D) - former Mayor of Brewer

No idea if any write-in candidates declared by this past Tuesday's write-in candidate deadline.

I just found out that no write-in candidates filed the necessary declaration of write-in candidacy by the January 28 deadline.  Not that anyone likely cares, but I usually like to include that information when I'm posting who the candidates are in a special election.  There will still be a write-in box (there always is on "people elections" in Maine), but any write-in votes will be counted as blank ballots.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls close in 21 minutes in GA. Results: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/101150/web/#/summary

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Polls close in 21 minutes in GA. Results: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/101150/web/#/summary

Polls have been closed for a little bit now. When are we going to see precincts report in?

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Polls close in 21 minutes in GA. Results: https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/101150/web/#/summary

Polls have been closed for a little bit now. When are we going to see precincts report in?

Patience is a virtue

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Early Vote from Lee County:

Votes
DEMMary Egler
66
6.36%
REPJim Quinn
833
80.25%
REPCarden H. Summers
139
13.39%

There are nine counties in the district, don't put too much stock in this one result.

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

11% in:

Mary Egler
13.30%
475
REPJim Quinn
39.75%
1,420
REPCarden H. Summers
46.95%
1,677
Votes Cast
3,572

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

8/76 in:

DEMMary Egler
12.59%
513
REPJim Quinn
44.71%
1,822
REPCarden H. Summers
42.70%
1,740
Votes Cast
4,075

[Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Mary Egler
1,487
15.21%
REPJim Quinn
4,026
41.17%
REPCarden H. Summers
4,266
43.62%
Votes Cast
9,779

53/76 in