LA-Remington (Abraham internal): JBE +11 first round, +6/+2 head-to-head

[ON Progressive]

First round:
John Bel Edwards 44
Ralph Abraham 33
Eddie Rispone 10

Head-to-heads:
John Bel Edwards 48
Eddie Rispone 42

John Bel Edwards 47
Ralph Abraham 45

https://www.scribd.com/document/403231843/Abraham-Edwards-Poll

[Politician]

If he's behind in his own internal, Edwards should be pretty fine. Lean D.

[Pollster]

The big takeaway from this poll is that Edwards is within striking distance of winning it in the first round.

[KaiserDave]

Terrible poll for Abraham, Lean D.

[Xing]

Yeah, but once Trump comes and says socialist a few times, Edwards will lose by double digits.

Anyway, Lean D, but closer to Likely than Toss-Up.

[MT Treasurer]

Meaningless because polarization is such an unstoppable force, Trump will campaign for his opponent, state is inelastic, Deep South, it’s Louisiana, name recognition, racist hicks, etc.

Likely R.

[President Johnson]

Meaningless because polarization is such an unstoppable force, Trump will campaign for his opponent, state is inelastic, Deep South, it’s Louisiana, name recognition, racist hicks, etc.

Likely R.

The best answer in this thread

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

Meaningless because polarization is such an unstoppable force, Trump will campaign for his opponent, state is inelastic, Deep South, it’s Louisiana, name recognition, racist hicks, etc.

Likely R.

I'd say tossup. That's an excellent description of the MS race though.

[😥]

Yeah, but once Trump comes and says socialist a few times, Edwards will lose by double digits.

Anyway, Lean D, but closer to Likely than Toss-Up.

[LoneStarDem]

I still think JBE wins reelection regardless with 57% & he's a very POPULAR Governor like his counterpart, NC Governor Roy Cooper (D).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

When Kennedy decided not to run, it became tilt D again

[LoneStarDem]

What disgusts me is that the LA GOP started plotting to undermine JBE from the second he took his hand off the Bible to become LA's 56th Governor on January 11th, 2016.

[bluesolid]

At least Comstock was able to show internals with her ahead.

[LoneStarDem]

A Manchin 2018 style narrow win for Edwards seems to be where this is heading in the end.

JBE by double digits with 57% & I'm sticking with it. The LA Dems are united behind him,  they'll be coming out in massive droves.

[MT Treasurer]

A Manchin 2018 style narrow win for Edwards seems to be where this is heading in the end.

Big differences between this race and WV-SEN, if you ask me. It’s going to be awfully difficult for Trump to nationalize a gubernatorial election in LA or for the RGA tie JBE to the national party (the guy is as close to a generic D/Pelosi as Larry Hogan is to a generic R/Trump), and the black and New Orleans vote alone means Democrats have a much higher floor in LA than in WV. You combine that with how well Democrats have been performing in most off-off year elections since Trump took office, and it’s hard to argue that this isn’t at least Lean D.

I’m predicting a 56-44 JBE win or something close to that.

[SnowLabrador]

I say 53-47 in favor of Abraham. Admittedly it is early, but this poll shows that Republicans are consolidating around Abraham, and that's only going to increase. Remember, Joe Donnelly was originally ahead of Messer and Rokita by double digits.

[Politician]

I say 53-47 in favor of Abraham. Admittedly it is early, but this poll shows that Republicans are consolidating around Abraham, and that's only going to increase. Remember, Joe Donnelly was originally ahead of Messer and Rokita by double digits.

[LoneStarDem]

I say 53-47 in favor of Abraham. Admittedly it is early, but this poll shows that Republicans are consolidating around Abraham, and that's only going to increase. Remember, Joe Donnelly was originally ahead of Messer and Rokita by double digits.

I'm standing by my Bold Prediction of JBE winning by double digits. It's STUPID to throw out a popular Governor with the economy booming in LA.

[Xing]

To those predicting JBE will win by double digits, why assume it will even go to a run-off? If he's that far ahead, wouldn't it be possible for him to avoid a run-off altogether? My guess (if it does go to a run-off) would be JBE 53-47 or so, maybe 54-46.

[Senator Incitatus]

Strongly supporting JBE, but I'm not as optimistic as most here. Think he pulls it by ≤5% if at all.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Yeah, but once Trump comes and says socialist a few times, Edwards will lose by double digits.

Anyway, Lean D, but closer to Likely than Toss-Up.

I know this is mocking but there's some truth to it. Doug Jones's campaign manager said in an interview that Trump campaigning in person for Moore always led to a 3-5 point jump for Moore in the polls, but that this bump went away after about four days. He said if Trump had done his final rally a few days later than he did (i.e. closer to the day of voting) Moore probably would have won.

[UncleSam]

What disgusts me is that the LA GOP started plotting to undermine JBE from the second he took his hand off the Bible to become LA's 56th Governor on January 11th, 2016.

Isn’t this what every opposition party of any newly elected executive has done since the beginning of time

[LoneStarDem]

I stand with JBE 100%!

[pbrower2a]

Meaningless because polarization is such an unstoppable force, Trump will campaign for his opponent, state is inelastic, Deep South, it’s Louisiana, name recognition, racist hicks, etc.

Likely R.

Trump could have far bigger problems than the partisan nature of the governorship of Louisiana.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems will win LA and KY and not MS, due to LA and MS having run-offs.  Dems are familiar in winning run-offs in LA, not in MS, which Espy didn't achieve in 2018.