ME-SEN: Collins +22 over Gideon.

[SnowLabrador]

Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B_W8V6ab5O57VlZHQ1NsR0ZIb0JBM20zU2xkbDktWThwUFow/view?usp%3Dsharing

Obviously not a good poll for Gideon, but then again, Joe Manchin was 22 points ahead of Patrick Morrisey at the beginning of the 2018 campaign and only won by a small amount. A lot can change.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Safe R, yep Dems have a better chance in CO, NM, AZ and TX than ME and IA

[Politician]

Gideon also has 41% unknown favorables, so take this with a grain of salt.

[Comrade Funk]

According to this 40% have never heard of Gideon

[SnowLabrador]

According to this 40% have never heard of Gideon

That's true. I mean, we have a summer house in Maine, and I'd never heard of Gideon before I'd heard she might run.

[Zaybay]

There are some other stats in this poll as well:

Approvals:

Angus King-65/31 (+34)

Susan Collins-62/37 (+25)

Janet Mills-55/40 (+15)

Jared Golden-53/31 (+22)

Cheille Pingree-49/39 (+10)

Sara Gideon-32/25 (+7)

-Jared Golden is more popular statewide(21.3+) than in his district(12.1+)
-Janet Mills is approved of in both districts

Would vote for Susan Collins?:
Yes/considering/No
24.8%/40.2%/27.4%

Trump Approval:

40/59 (-19)

[Politician]

There are some other stats in this poll as well:

Approvals:

Angus King-65/31 (+34)

Susan Collins-62/37 (+25)

Janet Mills-55/40 (+15)

Jared Golden-53/31 (+22)

Cheille Pingree-49/39 (+10)

Sara Gideon-32/25 (+7)

-Jared Golden is more popular statewide(21.3+) than in his district(12.1+)
-Janet Mills is approved of in both districts

Would vote for Susan Collins?:
Yes/considering/No
24.8%/40.2%/27.4%

Trump Approval:

40/59 (-19)

But IndyRep told me Trump has a great chance of carrying ME in 2020.

[DrScholl]

I think there's a chance the fake moderate can be defeated if her favorables can driven down by demonstrating that she's not at all moderate.

[MT Treasurer]

Trump Approval:

40/59 (-19)

But IndyRep told me Trump has a great chance of carrying ME in 2020.

Hmm...

Gideon also has 41% unknown favorables, so take this with a grain of salt.

[Zaybay]

Pretty.....interesting poll, TBH.

For Collins, it seems to be a good poll, but with some key drawbacks.

Good Stuff:
Collins has a super high approval rating, and she needs that to win.

Shes leading Sara Gideon, a likely opponent, by 22 points.

The Bad Stuff:

Much of Collins' support is soft, with 23% being hard support, and 39% being soft.

Even though she's leading Sara, she's only getting 51% of the vote.

Trump's Approval is at -19, which means she has a potential to really sink of the race becomes nationalized.

[Sestak]

Golden’s approvals are also impressive at 53-32. I wish they tested him and Collins in a matchup. She’d probably be ahead by upper single digits

Yeah I thought this too. Golden's approval rating could signal some trouble for Collins if he decides to go for it.

[Pollster]

This is an R+5 sample with only 32% independents. Unlikely to be the actual makeup.

[President Johnson]

Still hoping for Senator Susan Rice.

Has Collins even confirmed she runs again? Maybe we can have some Tea Partier challenge her with Trump's help just to lose in the general, if she runs.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Golden’s approvals are also impressive at 53-32. I wish they tested him and Collins in a matchup. She’d probably be ahead by upper single digits

Yeah I thought this too. Golden's approval rating could signal some trouble for Collins if he decides to go for it.

The downside of this is that it would put the ME-02 House seat in play for 2020 if Golden ran for Senate.

[Politician]

Golden’s approvals are also impressive at 53-32. I wish they tested him and Collins in a matchup. She’d probably be ahead by upper single digits

Yeah I thought this too. Golden's approval rating could signal some trouble for Collins if he decides to go for it.

The downside of this is that it would put the ME-02 House seat in play for 2020 if Golden ran for Senate.

It would probably flip back if Golden runs for Senate unless he can coattail his successor in.

Troy Jackson IMO is a better pick than Golden.

[Zaybay]

The way I see it:
 Senator Golden >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> Representative Golden.

[lfromnj]

Golden’s approvals are also impressive at 53-32. I wish they tested him and Collins in a matchup. She’d probably be ahead by upper single digits

Yeah I thought this too. Golden's approval rating could signal some trouble for Collins if he decides to go for it.

The downside of this is that it would put the ME-02 House seat in play for 2020 if Golden ran for Senate.

It would probably flip back if Golden runs for Senate unless he can coattail his successor in.

Troy Jackson IMO is a better pick than Golden.

do coattails even exist in Maine?

[Blackacre]

early polls continue to be weird. We should have a museum of early senate polls in each election cycle. Some are good, most are p bad

[here2view]

Golden’s approvals are also impressive at 53-32. I wish they tested him and Collins in a matchup. She’d probably be ahead by upper single digits

Yeah I thought this too. Golden's approval rating could signal some trouble for Collins if he decides to go for it.

The downside of this is that it would put the ME-02 House seat in play for 2020 if Golden ran for Senate.

Golden is no better than a 50-50 shot at re-election in that seat anyway. He’d have to face a competitive re-election race every two years in that seat. Doesn’t exactly seem appealing.

[Pericles]

Trump has a -18.5% approval rating in Maine in this poll so that's a good sign for its accuracy. I dearly hope Collins loses, after her Kavanaugh vote she is very deserving of a humiliating defeat, but she's probably favored at this point.

[MT Treasurer]

Trump has a -18.5% approval rating in Maine in this poll so that's a good sign for its accuracy. I dearly hope Collins loses, after her Kavanaugh vote she is very deserving of a humiliating defeat, but she's probably favored at this point.

I’m sure he’s not particularly popular in the state, but I highly doubt that it’s actually -18.5%. The fact that Collins still leads by 22 in a poll like this is pretty hilarious (retail politics everyone?), but I would indeed take it with a grain of salt.

[Pericles]

Trump has a -18.5% approval rating in Maine in this poll so that's a good sign for its accuracy. I dearly hope Collins loses, after her Kavanaugh vote she is very deserving of a humiliating defeat, but she's probably favored at this point.

I’m sure he’s not particularly popular in the state, but I highly doubt that it’s actually -18.5%. The fact that Collins still leads by 22 in a poll like this is pretty hilarious (retail politics everyone?), but I would indeed take it with a grain of salt.

Trump's national rating is -11.6%, so for Maine based on how it voted relative to the nation as a whole it probably should be around -13%, though it's possible if Maine is more elastic and Trump is disproportionately losing support in states where he had big gains in 2016 he would be down by more in Maine (or alternatively Maine and Upper Midwest + IA polls continue to suck).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Collins can certainly win, even if Dems win ME in presidential like in 2008.

Thats why Dems are targetting AZ, CO, TX and NC

[Morning in Atlas]

Call me when the candidate's known.

[S019]

But, I though Collins was a tossup or even, tilt D, because of muh-Kavanuagh

This race is, was, and will remain Lean R, closer to likely than tossup, gun to my head, Collins wins by anywhere from 7 to 10 pp.