NY-14 Will AOC lose in a 2020 primary?

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Given her drop in popularity in her district, Will AOC lose in a 2020 primary ... and will Joe Crowley challenger her for a rematch in 2020?

[Joe Republic]

Given her drop in popularity in her district

[Zaybay]

Given her drop in popularity in her district

Yeah, we havent gotten a single poll of her popularity in her CD, so this is kinda based on nothing.

[Coldstream]

I don’t think she’s completely safe, in the same sense that anyone more famous for their national work than local work is always at risk of their constituents feeling neglected, but I also don’t think there’s any evidence she’s in danger. I’d put her at like 90% chance of winning the primary again.

[Adam Griffin]

Her district is exactly the type of district where it's near impossible to oust an incumbent. Most people in districts like hers leave office either in handcuffs or in a hearse. Many of the people who voted against her in the primary will avidly vote for her in 2020. Obviously she herself only managed to win under a perfect storm scenario; it's highly improbable that anybody else will be able to replicate that anytime soon.

[Vega]

Her district is exactly the type of district where it's near impossible to oust an incumbent. Most people in districts like hers leave office either in handcuffs or in a hearse. Many of the people who voted against her in the primary will avidly vote for her in 2020. Obviously she herself only managed to win under a perfect storm scenario; it's highly improbable that anybody else will be able to replicate that anytime soon.

Was it a perfect storm? The district was changing demographically and Crowley was out of step with that. I don't think it was all that surprising, in hindsight, that she knocked him off.

[Zaybay]

Her district is exactly the type of district where it's near impossible to oust an incumbent. Most people in districts like hers leave office either in handcuffs or in a hearse. Many of the people who voted against her in the primary will avidly vote for her in 2020. Obviously she herself only managed to win under a perfect storm scenario; it's highly improbable that anybody else will be able to replicate that anytime soon.

Was it a perfect storm? The district was changing demographically and Crowley was out of step with that. I don't think it was all that surprising, in hindsight, that she knocked him off.

Because it wasnt a race game in the district. Not only did AOC lose African American voters and only tie Hispanics, she won off the back of the White voters in the district. Not only that, but that same primary saw 2 other incumbents almost lose as well, and neither were threatened by demographics. It was a combination of a low turnout primary, D Progressive enthusiasm, Crowley's aloofness, and demographics that caused AOC to win, and that pattern is rather hard to recreate.

[Adam Griffin]

Her district is exactly the type of district where it's near impossible to oust an incumbent. Most people in districts like hers leave office either in handcuffs or in a hearse. Many of the people who voted against her in the primary will avidly vote for her in 2020. Obviously she herself only managed to win under a perfect storm scenario; it's highly improbable that anybody else will be able to replicate that anytime soon.

Was it a perfect storm? The district was changing demographically and Crowley was out of step with that. I don't think it was all that surprising, in hindsight, that she knocked him off.

I'd say the only way that it wasn't "surprising" is that the incumbent was white and in a majority-minority district. Probably in most of the (very few) cases where incumbents in these types of districts have lost, that has been at least a coincidental factor.

But AOC worked very, very hard to make the right impressions during her campaign and mobilize voters, there was a natural upswelling of Democratic enthusiasm and energy that likely affected the electorate of the primary itself, and Crowley was completely out of touch with/unresponsive to his district's needs - despite all of that, she "only" won barely by double-digits.

As Zaybay pointed out, race wasn't a huge factor in her favor in the primary - but particularly with regard to AA primary voting tendencies, she'll almost certainly pick up the lion's share of them in any hypothetical future primary (just as Crowley did).

[HarrisonL]

Unfortunately, AOC will hold her seat in the primary.

[Sestak]

No. Next.

[PAK Man]

She will not lose. You don't defeat an incumbent by a primary margin like she did and then go around and lose the following cycle. She'll be fine.

[Nutmeg]

it is possible that a moderate or progressive Republican could defeat her in the general election.

Mods, pls ban

[ON Progressive]

She may win the primary but it is possible that a moderate or progressive Republican could defeat her in the general election.

Lmao

[Some of My Best Friends Are Gay]

She may win the primary but it is possible that a moderate or progressive Republican could defeat her in the general election.

What is this, the 1950s?

firstly, "progressive Republicans" really don't exist anymore.

secondly, AOC is safer than safe even if a "progressive Republican" was her opponent.

[Nutmeg]

it is possible that a moderate or progressive Republican could defeat her in the general election.

Mods, pls ban

Ban me for what? Disagreeing with you or offending you?

I meant the banning as a joke to indicate the preposterous nature of your political prognostication, not that you actually should be banned. You'll find that you'll catch a lot of (usually good-natured) flack for making these sorts of hot takes. Still, welcome to the forum!

[TML]

Unlike most other politicians who spend a lot of time communicating with donors, AOC actually spends a lot of time communicating with her constituents. That should enable her to maintain most of her support among her constituents.

[Virginiá]

She may win the primary but it is possible that a moderate or progressive Republican could defeat her in the general election.

NY-14 is a D+29 district. It went for 77.7% Clinton, 80.7% Obama.

This is the epitome of a safe district. The kind of district that would still send her back to Congress even if Republicans won the national House popular vote by 15 points. Especially in the current era of polarized voting, where the presidential preference of the district is the best indicator of how it will vote in other races.

[Xing]

LOL, no.

Also, don't take the ARealTroll bait, guys.

[Sestak]

She may win the primary but it is possible that a moderate or progressive Republican could defeat her in the general election.

What is this, the 1950s?

firstly, "progressive Republicans" really don't exist anymore.

secondly, AOC is safer than safe even if a "progressive Republican" was her opponent.

What about Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan?

Moderate conservatives. Or Baker I guess could be described as a libertarian.

[Nyvin]

She may win the primary but it is possible that a moderate or progressive Republican could defeat her in the general election.

What is this, the 1950s?

firstly, "progressive Republicans" really don't exist anymore.

secondly, AOC is safer than safe even if a "progressive Republican" was her opponent.

What about Charlie Baker and Larry Hogan?

Moderate conservatives. Or Baker I guess could be described as a libertarian.

Also NY-14 is way more Democratic than Maryland and Massachusetts.

And congressional races are way more partisan than governor races.   No one is going to think a Republican in NY-14 will be a check on the NY state legislature.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Hell no.

[coloradocowboi]

Her district is exactly the type of district where it's near impossible to oust an incumbent. Most people in districts like hers leave office either in handcuffs or in a hearse. Many of the people who voted against her in the primary will avidly vote for her in 2020. Obviously she herself only managed to win under a perfect storm scenario; it's highly improbable that anybody else will be able to replicate that anytime soon.

Was it a perfect storm? The district was changing demographically and Crowley was out of step with that. I don't think it was all that surprising, in hindsight, that she knocked him off.

Because it wasnt a race game in the district. Not only did AOC lose African American voters and only tie Hispanics, she won off the back of the White voters in the district. Not only that, but that same primary saw 2 other incumbents almost lose as well, and neither were threatened by demographics. It was a combination of a low turnout primary, D Progressive enthusiasm, Crowley's aloofness, and demographics that caused AOC to win, and that pattern is rather hard to recreate.

Yeah and anyone who doesn't understand she owns this as long as she wants is delusional. She is extremely good, and I think leadership recognizes this and won't be willing to ever go after her. I think if they really want to punish the insurgent left they will go after Omar or Tlaib in a primary, not AOC, and that's the only way a challenger ever would beat her.

[The Mikado]

She won't lose in 2020.

The real question is what her district will look like after redistricting when she has to run again in 2022. If the NY Democratic Party wants to screw her over, that's the way they'd do it.

[Bacon King]

She won't lose in 2020.

The real question is what her district will look like after redistricting when she has to run again in 2022. If the NY Democratic Party wants to screw her over, that's the way they'd do it.

AOC is in luck, actually: NY-14 was drawn as a Hispanic majority district but as of last year has fallen to 47.7% Hispanic. After 2020 it'll almost certainly be restored to 50% Hispanic to avoid a VRA retrogression lawsuit.

The seat is hers for as long as she wants it

[Gustaf]

No, she won't, lol.