Jose Serrano not running again

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/NOgnanovich/status/1110218083409580032?s=19

R+1?

[Politician]

AOC 2.0?

[Reluctant Republican]

Sorry to hear of his health troubles. I always respected his work to repeal the 22nd amendment, so sorry to see him go on that front.

I imagine his son who serves in the state senate will try to go for it?

[Oryxslayer]

Its one of the most democratic seats in the nation. I expect a wide dem primary.

[Zaybay]

From what I know, a NY Councilman named Ritchie Torres is running for the seat already, but the field could potentially explode.

[Suburbia]

It is one of the poorest congressional districts in America, but Yankee Stadium, a stadium of athletic American wealth is located there.

His son or a leftist like AOC 2.0 may happen.

[S019]

His son, Jose M. Serrano, is a state Senator, I see him running for this seat and winning, either Ruben Diaz Jr., Bronx Borough President, or Ruben Diaz Sr., the former New York state Senator and IDC member could run

I'm hoping for Diaz Sr., but Serrano will probably win

[Sestak]

His son, Jose M. Serrano, is a state Senator, I see him running for this seat and winning, either Ruben Diaz Jr., Bronx Borough President, or Ruben Diaz Sr., the former New York state Senator and IDC member could run

I'm hoping for Diaz Sr., but Serrano will probably win

Lmao. An IDC member is not winning the most Democratic district in the entire country.

[IceSpear]

Everyone knows open seats are more competitive because of the lack of INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE™. Likely D.

[S019]

Everyone knows open seats are more competitive because of the lack of INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE™. Likely D.

The only way that this works is if Ruben Diaz Sr. somehow gets the Dem nomination, and then once elected, decides to caucus with Republicans (caucusing with Blue Dogs is fine), like he did in the NY Senate, then in 2022, Dems would oust him from their party/not allow him to run in the Dem primary and force him to run on the Republican line, everyone would abandon him, and an actual Democrat would beat him 93-7.

But if Diaz won, he would not be that stupid and would just join the Blue Dog Caucus and would be safe, because of the DCCC pro-incumbent policy

[Politician]

Everyone knows open seats are more competitive because of the lack of INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE™. Likely D.

The only way that this works is if Ruben Diaz Sr. somehow gets the Dem nomination, and then once elected, decides to caucus with Republicans (caucusing with Blue Dogs is fine), like he did in the NY Senate, then in 2022, Dems would oust him from their party/not allow him to run in the Dem primary and force him to run on the Republican line, everyone would abandon him, and an actual Democrat would beat him 93-7.

But if Diaz won, he would not be that stupid and would just join the Blue Dog Caucus and would be safe, because of the DCCC pro-incumbent policy

Someone's sarcasm detector is off.

[Nyvin]

Everyone knows open seats are more competitive because of the lack of INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE™. Likely D.

The only way that this works is if Ruben Diaz Sr. somehow gets the Dem nomination, and then once elected, decides to caucus with Republicans (caucusing with Blue Dogs is fine), like he did in the NY Senate, then in 2022, Dems would oust him from their party/not allow him to run in the Dem primary and force him to run on the Republican line, everyone would abandon him, and an actual Democrat would beat him 93-7.

But if Diaz won, he would not be that stupid and would just join the Blue Dog Caucus and would be safe, because of the DCCC pro-incumbent policy

You SERIOUSLY believe someone would join the Blue Dog Caucus in a D+44 seat?!?

Or that Ruben Diaz has any chance in hell of winning a dem congressional primary in this seat?!?  He doesn't even support same sex marriage in 2019,  he'd be lucky to get mid-single digits here.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Everyone knows open seats are more competitive because of the lack of INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE™. Likely D.

The only way that this works is if Ruben Diaz Sr. somehow gets the Dem nomination, and then once elected, decides to caucus with Republicans (caucusing with Blue Dogs is fine), like he did in the NY Senate, then in 2022, Dems would oust him from their party/not allow him to run in the Dem primary and force him to run on the Republican line, everyone would abandon him, and an actual Democrat would beat him 93-7.

But if Diaz won, he would not be that stupid and would just join the Blue Dog Caucus and would be safe, because of the DCCC pro-incumbent policy

You SERIOUSLY believe someone would join the Blue Dog Caucus in a D+44 seat?!?

Or that Ruben Diaz has any chance in hell of winning a dem congressional primary in this seat?!?  He doesn't even support same sex marriage in 2019,  he'd be lucky to get mid-single digits here.

Mike Thompson is in a D+21. Blue Dogs are going to Blue Dog no matter where they are. The whole argument that they are conservative so that they can win is bullsh**t.

[lfromnj]

Everyone knows open seats are more competitive because of the lack of INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE™. Likely D.

The only way that this works is if Ruben Diaz Sr. somehow gets the Dem nomination, and then once elected, decides to caucus with Republicans (caucusing with Blue Dogs is fine), like he did in the NY Senate, then in 2022, Dems would oust him from their party/not allow him to run in the Dem primary and force him to run on the Republican line, everyone would abandon him, and an actual Democrat would beat him 93-7.

But if Diaz won, he would not be that stupid and would just join the Blue Dog Caucus and would be safe, because of the DCCC pro-incumbent policy

You SERIOUSLY believe someone would join the Blue Dog Caucus in a D+44 seat?!?

Or that Ruben Diaz has any chance in hell of winning a dem congressional primary in this seat?!?  He doesn't even support same sex marriage in 2019,  he'd be lucky to get mid-single digits here.

Mike Thompson is in a D+21. Blue Dogs are going to Blue Dog no matter where they are. The whole argument that they are conservative so that they can win is bullsh**t.

I am pretty sure Mike Thompson cosponsored the medicare for all act.

[TML]

R+1?

The probability of that happening is <0.1%.

[S019]

Everyone knows open seats are more competitive because of the lack of INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE™. Likely D.

The only way that this works is if Ruben Diaz Sr. somehow gets the Dem nomination, and then once elected, decides to caucus with Republicans (caucusing with Blue Dogs is fine), like he did in the NY Senate, then in 2022, Dems would oust him from their party/not allow him to run in the Dem primary and force him to run on the Republican line, everyone would abandon him, and an actual Democrat would beat him 93-7.

But if Diaz won, he would not be that stupid and would just join the Blue Dog Caucus and would be safe, because of the DCCC pro-incumbent policy

You SERIOUSLY believe someone would join the Blue Dog Caucus in a D+44 seat?!?

Or that Ruben Diaz has any chance in hell of winning a dem congressional primary in this seat?!?  He doesn't even support same sex marriage in 2019,  he'd be lucky to get mid-single digits here.

Eh, if his son and Jose M Serrano stay out of the race, Ruben Diaz Sr. is the most high profile Democrat, and his state Senate seat overlaps with much of this district, I hope Diaz Sr. runs and wins, he'd be great for this district, sadly it will probably be Serrano, Diaz's son while more liberal, would not be the end of the world either

[Sestak]

Everyone knows open seats are more competitive because of the lack of INCUMBENCY ADVANTAGE™. Likely D.

The only way that this works is if Ruben Diaz Sr. somehow gets the Dem nomination, and then once elected, decides to caucus with Republicans (caucusing with Blue Dogs is fine), like he did in the NY Senate, then in 2022, Dems would oust him from their party/not allow him to run in the Dem primary and force him to run on the Republican line, everyone would abandon him, and an actual Democrat would beat him 93-7.

But if Diaz won, he would not be that stupid and would just join the Blue Dog Caucus and would be safe, because of the DCCC pro-incumbent policy

You SERIOUSLY believe someone would join the Blue Dog Caucus in a D+44 seat?!?

Or that Ruben Diaz has any chance in hell of winning a dem congressional primary in this seat?!?  He doesn't even support same sex marriage in 2019,  he'd be lucky to get mid-single digits here.

Eh, if his son and Jose M Serrano stay out of the race, Ruben Diaz Sr. is the most high profile Democrat, and his state Senate seat overlaps with much of this district, I hope Diaz Sr. runs and wins, he'd be great for this district, sadly it will probably be Serrano, Diaz's son while more liberal, would not be the end of the world either

Being high profile for being a conservadem is not necessarily a good thing in this seat.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Adamantivibranium D.

[Canis]

Likely Connecticut for Lieberman

[Sestak]

Likely Connecticut for Lieberman

Closer to Safe than Lean.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Solid ALP pickup! 

[Cold War Liberal]

RITCHIE TORRES 2020