2000 : Gore vs Bush if the Electoral College was a 269-269 tie
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  2000 : Gore vs Bush if the Electoral College was a 269-269 tie
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Author Topic: 2000 : Gore vs Bush if the Electoral College was a 269-269 tie  (Read 1318 times)
UWS
Junior Chimp
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« on: March 25, 2019, 07:57:12 AM »

The 2000 presidential election was one of the closest and most contested presidential elections in America’s history as Al Gore won the popular vote but lost the election to George W. Bush in the Electoral College as Bush won Florida by just 537 votes, giving him 271 electoral votes. The Supreme Court of the United States had to decide the outcome of this election.

What if the 2000 election was a 269-269 tie and if the election had to be decided by the House of Representatives, who would have won?
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MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!
Kalwejt
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« Reply #1 on: March 25, 2019, 07:10:14 PM »

What about the Vice Presidency? As far as I'm aware the Vice President wouldn't be allowed to cast a tie-break, which would lead to a number of ballots. This becomes even trickier if we remember Lieberman, one of the 50 Democratic votes, was an interested part.
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vanteran
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« Reply #2 on: March 25, 2019, 08:31:34 PM »
« Edited: April 20, 2019, 04:38:05 PM by vanteran »

GOP House Majorities (28)

Alabama
Alaska
Arizona
Colorado
Delaware
Florida
Georgia
Idaho
Indiana
Iowa
Kansas
Kentucky
Louisiana
Missouri
Montana
Nebraska
New Hampshire
New Mexico
North Carolina
Ohio
Oklahoma
Pennsylvania
South Carolina
South Dakota
Tennessee
Utah
Virginia
Wyoming

Dem House Majorities (18)

Arkansas
California
Hawaii
Maine
Massachusetts
Michigan
Minnesota
Mississippi
New Jersey
New York
North Dakota
Oregon
Rhode Island
Texas
Vermont
Washington
West Virginia
Wisconsin  

Tied Seat Delegation (4)

Connecticut
Illinois
Maryland
Nevada

Based on this data, I say Bush will be voted in by the House to become President as there would be 28 states that have a majority of GOP members. Assuming Joe Lieberman is able to vote, he would likely become the next Vice President as the Dems would have 50 votes + Gore's tie-breaking vote. So, a 269-269 tie could very possibly mean a Bush/Lieberman administration would occur.  
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BigVic
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« Reply #3 on: March 25, 2019, 08:48:53 PM »

All 28 states would vote for W so W would win via the House.
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S019
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« Reply #4 on: March 25, 2019, 09:06:06 PM »

All 28 states would vote for W so W would win via the House.

I could see someone like Mike Castle abstaining for political cover, so I think he wins 27 states instead of 28
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LoneStarDem
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« Reply #5 on: April 20, 2019, 08:07:14 AM »

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: April 20, 2019, 02:52:58 PM »

I doubt it would have been one, NH, could have been won by Gore, which would have given him 270, if Nadar hadn't run.
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UWS
Junior Chimp
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« Reply #7 on: April 21, 2019, 07:37:37 AM »

I doubt it would have been one, NH, could have been won by Gore, which would have given him 270, if Nadar hadn't run.

The question was what if happened, even with Nader in the race like in real life. A 269-269 tie would have happened if, for example, Gore flipped Florida but loses Pennsylvania to Bush.
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UnselfconsciousTeff
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« Reply #8 on: April 30, 2019, 05:33:35 PM »

Then i guess Barbara Lett-Simmons woudnt abstain and vote for Gore

270-268
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S019
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« Reply #9 on: May 03, 2019, 08:20:00 AM »

Then i guess Barbara Lett-Simmons woudnt abstain and vote for Gore

270-268

No abstaining means, you don't vote so Bush's 271-267 victory was 271-266, in their scenario, she doesn't abstain, because Gore has 269 votes, not 268

Also with the House vote, I see Mike Castle abstaining for political cover, especially after Bill Roth's landslide loss

I see all Dem delegations go for Gore, including AR, WV, and MS, of these only MS is concerning, and Shows and Taylor would easily win reelection anyway

So, it's really 27-18, with 5 abstentions (Castle+the 4 deadlocked delegations)

The Senate is interesting, it would deadlock 50-50

Meaning that Dennis Hastert would be VP

But I think at least 1 or 2 of the following cross party lines and vote for the moderate Lieberman:Jeffords, Campbell, Fitzgerald, Lugar, Snowe, Collins, Hagel, Smith, Specter, Chaffee, Bennett, Warner

Ben Nelson and Zell Miller are the only possible Democratuc defections, and I doubt either defects


So we have in order of likelihood

Bush-Lieberman administration (still, pretty much the same as IRL, because Lieberman was a hawk, I think he would actually switch parties ITTL, because of the growing importantance of foreign policy, also Nancy Johnson probably fills his seat, she would probably beat Ned Lamont in 2006, and then lose to Murphy in 2012, but Senator Nancy Johnson means a 59-41 Dem majority during the Obama years, changing history forever)

Bush-Hastert adminstration (Here, the Senate deadlocks on party lines, and Speaker Hastert becomes VP, so Dick Armey becomes Speaker, but in 2003, Tom DeLay becomes Speaker, his scandals become a distraction to the GOP and the 2006 midterms are even worse, with Demixrats picking up some missed low hanging fruit (Gerlach), also Harold Ford probably becomes a Senator (only to be Blanched in 2012). So, then Roy Blunt is Speaker, and would be serving as Minority Leader in 2010, ITTL, I doubt, that he runs for Senate, it's basically a redux of the 2012 primary and Todd Akin happens two years earlier, Akin loses by double digits to Carnahan. Also in 2010, as Dems have an extra seat, Scott Brown's victory still leaves Dems with filibuster-proof majorityMeaning that the Senate is 55-45 in 2010, with two extra Dem seats. McCaskill goes down in 2012 to Sarah Steelman with no Akin, and Ford is Blanched, everything else is OTL. Everything else is same as OTL, except Carnahan wins reelection in 2016, over Ann Wagner. So, the Senate balance is 51-49, ND Doug Jones victory, deadlocks the Senate.

Bush-Cheney (requires Nelson and Miller to cross party lines, OTL, except Nelson and Miller likely buck party more, Miller may actually switch to Republicans, offsetting Jeffords switch
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