2020 House Predictions

[S019]

Because it's never too early

Mine:

219-216 Dem

Dem Gain: GA-07

GOP Gain: CA-48, IA-01, IA-03, IL-14, ME-02, MI-08, MI-11, MN-7, NJ-02, NJ-03, NM-02, NY-11, NY-22, OK-5, SC-01, UT-04, VA-07

GOP wins: NC-09 (unknown incumbent)


Post yours below

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems are gonna win IA seats due to fact state legislature is trending Democratic.

Problem with your analysis, most of the freshman class is in blue states.

[S019]

The Dems are gonna win IA seats due to fact state legislature is trending Democratic.

Problem with your analysis, most of the freshman class is in blue states.

Umm no, IA is trending R, it is Likely R with Trump on the ballot

Blue states have red parts, like NJ is a blue state, but Monmouth County is Republican, NM is a blue state, but the southern part is Republican, many of these districts are Republican, Republicab-leaning, down allot Republican, or historically Republican


This is why I left off seats like NY-19 and VA-02, which is undeniably winnable for Democrats, with VA-02 trending Democrat and I think NY-19 will trend Democrat, I see Trump winning it by 2-4 in 2020, which gives Delgado enough room for crossover votes

[Politician]

CA-10 Is an error, should be Lean D.

[HarrisonL]

GOP will probably have a slightly smaller net gain. Every New Jersey Dem will be re-elected, even Andy Kim, I look forward to it.

[HarrisonL]

And Jeff Van Drew won't lose, although 2018 showed us that he underpeformed, and that his race will be competitive, really though the only seat the NJ GOP has a good shot at flipping is NJ-3 with Kim.

[😥]

D gain: GA-07, NC-09, TX-23, TX-24

R gain: MN-07 (if Peterson will retire), NJ-03, NM-02, NY-22, OK-05, SC-01

R+2

[HarrisonL]

I promise you, if Democrats flip TX-24, Andy Kim in NJ-3 will win by 3-5%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Dems are gonna win IA seats due to fact state legislature is trending Democratic.

Problem with your analysis, most of the freshman class is in blue states.

Umm no, IA is trending R, it is Likely R with Trump on the ballot

Blue states have red parts, like NJ is a blue state, but Monmouth County is Republican, NM is a blue state, but the southern part is Republican, many of these districts are Republican, Republicab-leaning, down allot Republican, or historically Republican


This is why I left off seats like NY-19 and VA-02, which is undeniably winnable for Democrats, with VA-02 trending Democrat and I think NY-19 will trend Democrat, I see Trump winning it by 2-4 in 2020, which gives Delgado enough room for crossover votes

IA isnt safe R, Ernst is safe for now, but state legislature is trending Dem and Dems will have a bigger majority than this due to blue trend of blue states. The GOP will win SC, UT and OK

[Sestak]

D gain: GA-07, NC-09, TX-23, TX-24

R gain: MN-07 (if Peterson will retire), NJ-03, NM-02, NY-22, OK-05, SC-01

R+2

This seems somewhat reasonable, though I could also see NJ-02 in the GOP column and PA-01 in the Dem column. Still very early in the cycle though. (Also I think Peterson loses if he runs).

[here2view]

Republicans probably gain around 5 seats, give or take a few. Not sure about specifics.

I don't think the overall composition will change that much, certainly not as much as OP's scenario.

[Frenchrepublican]

Democratic gains : maybe TX 23rd and GA 7th
Republican gains : MI 8th, MN7th, NM 2nd, NY 19th, NY 22nd, OK 5th, and SC 1st ; maybe MI 11th and NY 11th

[Gass3268]

Why do folks keep listing MI-11? It's way to suburban to flip.

TX-22 is another one that Democrats could flip as well.

[cvparty]

who is even going to run against kim for all the people saying nj-03 will flip

[S019]

Why do folks keep listing MI-11? It's way to suburban to flip.

TX-22 is another one that Democrats could flip as well.

Trump will heavily campaign in MI and he needs that district to win MI (if he doesn’t win it, he’s losing MI by more than 4, which is implausible), therefore, Peters and the Democrat will both lose it, and Stevens will very likely lose, as well.