Why did Rick Snyder lose Baraga County in 2014?

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

It just seems to fly in the face of everything else on the subject of Michigan election results and political geography.

His opponent, Mark Schauer, was a former Congressman from the exact opposite end of the state so it was not a home area boost.

Rick Snyder won by 4 points statewide that year; on the same ballot; Terri Lynn Land won the County while losing by 13 points statewide. McCain even won it in 2008 when he was losing by 16 points statewide; which was enough for Obama to win an actual majority of Counties within the state. Why did things end up randomly different in the 2014 Governors Race?

[lfromnj]

Similar to Fitzgerald winning Monroe in 2014?

Some local issue that Snyder caused?

[Sestak]

This is congressional.

[UncleSam]

The UP is a strange and unreliable region when it comes to politics. It has a relatively small population (much of which is just second homes) so small swings in independent voters’ priorities or the randomness of what the weather is like at that point in time could swing those counties.

I’d bet that Democrats do significantly better in most of the UP if you only count people who are there year-round, in fact. It’s just that wealthier folks from the Grand Rapids or suburban Detroit area live up there for months at a time in their second house that swings things to Rs often. My uncle is one such person (though he is a borderline communist so perhaps not a great example of a person who might do so).

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

This is congressional.

Ugh. That was a mistake I did not notice.

[Smash255]

It just seems to fly in the face of everything else on the subject of Michigan election results and political geography.

His opponent, Mark Schauer, was a former Congressman from the exact opposite end of the state so it was not a home area boost.

Rick Snyder won by 4 points statewide that year; on the same ballot; Terri Lynn Land won the County while losing by 13 points statewide. McCain even won it in 2008 when he was losing by 16 points statewide; which was enough for Obama to win an actual majority of Counties within the state. Why did things end up randomly different in the 2014 Governors Race?

It might stick out more because Land won the county and lost statewide and Snyder lost the county and won statewide, but keep in mind the two races in 2014 were within 2.07 and 2.77 points.   If Land won the county by 9.8 and Snyder by 5 I doubt it even gets noticed.

[DINGO Joe]

The UP is a strange and unreliable region when it comes to politics. It has a relatively small population (much of which is just second homes) so small swings in independent voters’ priorities or the randomness of what the weather is like at that point in time could swing those counties.

I’d bet that Democrats do significantly better in most of the UP if you only count people who are there year-round, in fact. It’s just that wealthier folks from the Grand Rapids or suburban Detroit area live up there for months at a time in their second house that swings things to Rs often. My uncle is one such person (though he is a borderline communist so perhaps not a great example of a person who might do so).

Do people with second homes frequently vote from the second address?  You can only vote in one place.

[DINGO Joe]

I notice once that there are an absurd number of state prisons in the UP (cause nobody else wants them) so maybe he did something to make prison guards angry.

[UncleSam]

The UP is a strange and unreliable region when it comes to politics. It has a relatively small population (much of which is just second homes) so small swings in independent voters’ priorities or the randomness of what the weather is like at that point in time could swing those counties.

I’d bet that Democrats do significantly better in most of the UP if you only count people who are there year-round, in fact. It’s just that wealthier folks from the Grand Rapids or suburban Detroit area live up there for months at a time in their second house that swings things to Rs often. My uncle is one such person (though he is a borderline communist so perhaps not a great example of a person who might do so).

Do people with second homes frequently vote from the second address?  You can only vote in one place.

I believe you are allowed to vote at any address you own if you own multiple homes, but can only vote at one. Typically people vote wherever they are at the time of the election.

[Ye We Can]

The UP is a strange and unreliable region when it comes to politics. It has a relatively small population (much of which is just second homes) so small swings in independent voters’ priorities or the randomness of what the weather is like at that point in time could swing those counties.

I’d bet that Democrats do significantly better in most of the UP if you only count people who are there year-round, in fact. It’s just that wealthier folks from the Grand Rapids or suburban Detroit area live up there for months at a time in their second house that swings things to Rs often. My uncle is one such person (though he is a borderline communist so perhaps not a great example of a person who might do so).

Do people with second homes frequently vote from the second address?  You can only vote in one place.

Not Michigan but I:

Voted in Champaign county IL for 2016 primary
Voted in Chicago for 2016 general
Voted in Chicago for 2018 primary
Voted in Champaign for 2018 general
Voted in Chicago for 2019 primary

So yes it makes sense that people would do this