Canada General Discussion (2019-)

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103,000 people will be removed from the federal voters register because they are not citizens.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/elections-canada-set-to-eliminate-100-000-non-citizens-from-voters-registry-1.4403532

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Some provincial politics polls. In Ontario Ipsos has it a three way race. The Ontario Liberals have 32%, PC 30% and ONDP 29%. Ipsos has regional numbers and the Liberals are greatly helped by 40% in Greater Toronto.

https://globalnews.ca/news/5310826/ontario-politics-doug-ford-ipsos-poll/

Mainstreet shows Ford is very unpopular. Tthe Liberals are at 39.9% support among decided and leaning voters, NDP at 24.2%, PC at 22.4% and the Greens at 12%.

https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ford-pc-support-collapses-while-liberal-voters-prefer-tory-as-their-leader/

In Quebec the CAQ has wide support. Léger has voting intentions at 46% for CAQ, 23% Quebec Liberals, 14% PQ, 13% QS. CAQ has 55% of the francophone vote while the Liberal party is at 10%.

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MMP might be cancelled here in Quebec. While Legault is publicly committing to introducing legislation by October, his strategists are planning a PEI-style simultaneous referendum in 2022 and his justice minister wants a slower approach. Elections Quebec wants to know soon because they believe implementation will take 30-42 months.

They say they agreed to propose a law by October but did not say a new electoral system would be in place for next election. Half the CAQ caucus wants a referendum. It postpones potential changes, they don't have to fight one another to be a candidate in a riding and referendums were lost in other provinces.

What surprised me were the two scenarios studied. One is about half members elected in constituencies and half from list, in the 60s each. The other is 100 from constituencies and 25 from list. What was usually said was a new system would be 75 or 78 from constituencies and about 50 from list. 

https://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/201905/28/01-5227917-reforme-du-mode-de-scrutin-legault-devra-marcher-sur-la-peinture.php

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I'm guessing the next leader is in cabinet at the moment,

Some Liberals are trying to recruit Mark Carney if they have to find a new leader.

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The leader of Quebec's Parti Vert disagrees with the federal Green party on oil sands. The Canadian greens want to stop importing oil and use Canadian oil.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1172660/parti-vert-quebec-canada-may-tyrrell-desaccord

He thinks tarsands oil is more polluting and the party should be against it.

https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-thursday-edition-1.5155786/elizabeth-may-wants-to-only-use-canadian-oil-a-plan-quebec-s-green-party-leader-can-t-support-1.5155814

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To add an item in the Justcice file
35. SNC-Lavalin remediation agreement

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there is a Canada election 2019  thread on the International election section.

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From an interview; Bernier is preparing for the next election and full time leader. Nearly half of the 2019 candidates want to run again. Bernier will run again, in a riding with the best chance of winning. It could be in Beauce, could be in Alberta. He's ready to run in the next by-election anywhere. To get his message across he will have a Youtube channel, The Max Bernier show.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/nouvelle/1491120/maxime-bernier-parti-populaire-canada-election-complementaire-campagne-electorale-thibeault

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Angus Reid poll numbers show an increase in various government performance in handling the covid 19 outbreak during the last month.

64% of people say the the federal goverment is doing a good job. By province/region, it's 67% in British Columbia, 60% in Alberta, 69% in Sask/Manitoba, 71% in Ontario, 49% in Quebec, 74% In Atlantic.

Provincial government performance is better with an average of 79%. It's 71% in BC, 76% in Alberta, 78% in Sask/Manitoba, 74% in Ontario, 93% in Quebec, 78% in the Atlantic.

Ekos poll asked about approval of different leaders response to the crisis. Trudeau and Freeland are at 67% approval. At the provincial level, Horgan is at 68%, Kenney 65%, Ford 67% and Legault 95%.

Ekos shows the federal Liberals with an increase in voting intentions. Liberal 40%, Conservative 29%, NDP 12%

It has Ontario provincial voting intentions: Liberal 40, Conservative 31.5% , NDP 18%
It has Quebec provincial voting intentions: CAQ 52%, Liberal 19%, PQ 14%, QS 10%


Léger did a poll from March 20-22. Among many things it asked are you satisfied or not by the measures put in place by various authority to fight covid-19.

The federal government gets 65% total satisfied (include very and somewhat satisfied). It is 73% in BC, 67% Alberta, 71% Sask/Manitoba, 71% Ontario, 44% Quebec, 83% Atlantic.

Provincial governments get a score of 79% total satisfied. 71% BC, 74% Alberta, 73% Sask/Manitoba, 75% Ontario, 94% Quebec, 82% Atlantic.

Municipal governments have 67% total satisfied. A low of 63% in Sask/Manitoba to high of 72% in Atlantic.

Your employer get 48% in satisfied categories.  40% in Sask/Manitoba, the other regions are between 47% and 52%.

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It has Ontario provincial voting intentions: Liberal 40, Conservative 31.5% , NDP 18%

That was Ekos. Mainstreet paints a different picture.
Ontario Liberals and PCs tied at 33%, ONDP at 23% and Green at 7%.
https://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/march-2020-ontario-poll-pc-33-liberal-33-23-green-7/

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I hear some complaints on radio about people not following rules like seeing small gatherings, or bring too close or some shops being open not really an essential service. Hard to say how big this minority is. When I get out there is much less cars on the road and at the store people ususally try to keep distance but it can be dificult.

Quebec has closed non essential businesses for nearly two weeks and the number of cases keeps climbing. I thought we could see an effect on new cases numbers with social distancing after more than a week.

Quebec number of cases represents half of identified cases in Canada. The island of Montreal has 46% of Quebec cases so 23% of all of Canada.

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Dominique Anglade becomes the leader of the Quebec Liberal Party after the only other candidate withdrew. She is the first woman to lead the party.

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The Parliament budget officer estimates the federal deficit at $260 billion.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/federal-deficit-likely-now-at-260-billion-due-to-covid-19-pbo-says-1.4955585

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Legault and the CAQ are in an extremely strong position, they would have to really, really, really screw up to become a toxic enough brand to hurt the Bloc. If anything, the Bloc saved themselves by tying themselves to the CAQ.

The Bloc was help by relaying Quebec's goverment demands in the last election. In the next election it could be hurt if CAQ decides to criticize the Bloc, its usefulness, or point disagreements in policy.

The Bloc seems to be holding 30% of the federal Quebec vote which is much more than not distant past. But if support holds or not will depend come the election how people feel of the other options and what are the main issues in the election.

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We lost the Security Council vote.

On?

It was the election for non permanent seats on the UN Security Council. In its group of countries, Canada was seeking a seat, with Norway and Ireland the other candidates.

Two seats were available and 128 votes were needed to win. Norway got 130 votes, Ireland 128 and Canada 108 votes.

Last time Canada tried to win a seat was in 2010 (under Harper) and it failed.   

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I have a lesser opinion of Singh. Calling someone racist is a serious accusation. Maybe he was angry there was no all party consent for his motion but he didn't change after cooling down. The Bloc supported the study of racism in the RCMP in committee.

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British Columbia, like many governments, is seeing an invrease in approval and voting intentions. It has the BC NDP at 47% of the decided vote, Liberal 29%, Greens 11% Conservative 12%. There are 23% undecided.

Poll by Insights West
https://www.insightswest.com/news/govt-rep-july-2020/

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Wells on today's announcement of a public inquiry into the NS shootings.

Interesting it changed mind, the federal government never accepted calls to hold a public inquiry on the Lac-Mégantic train tragedy.

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Legault and Macron spoke on the phone. Macron thanked Legault for his defense of freedom of expression. Legault had said he sided with Macron and disagreed with Trudeau who talked about freedom of expression having limits. This is following the beaheading of a French teacher.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/france-thanks-quebec-premier-for-defending-freedom-of-expression

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Green Leader Annamie Paul will run again in Toronto Centre in the general election.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/green-leader-annamie-paul-to-run-in-toronto-centre-setting-stage-for-rematch-1.5304481

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Municipal elections in Quebec are in November. There are going to be new faces in major cities because the incumbent is retiring in Quebec City, Laval, Gatineau and Longueuil. Montreal will have a familiar face but will it keep Valérie Plante or see the return of Denis Coderre.

A Léger poll of 500 people gives 46% of decided voters for Coderre, 34% for Plante and 19% for other candidates. Plante does best with younger voters. Coderre leads among non francophone voters 51% to 23%. Francophones are split, 44% Plante 42% Coderre.

44% are satisfied with the work of Plante, 50% not satisfied. 60% want a change of mayor while 24% would keep the mayor. Coderre is preferred on issues like economic recovery of the city, roads, municipal taxes, municipal services, and security. Plante is prefered for making arts accessible, public transit, green spaces and bike paths. 

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Canada should not have reopened the border with the US. As an American, I think they should keep us out forever.

I'm not a fan of international travel. In Montreal a third of cases are linked to international travel, even if people are double vaccinated. People traveling and welcoming tourists seems like an increase in cases like how it arrived in the first wave.

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New Abacus: https://abacusdata.ca/election-2021-liberals-lead-by-9/

I wanted to pinpoint the Quebec numbers in particular. If the main anti-LPC parties in Quebec (BQ and Tories) split like that (poll suggests 22-19), the Liberals will win a good number of seats there without really having to increase their numbers all that much. A simple Tooclosetocall input of those numbers gives the LPC 45 seats in Quebec, 10 more than they won in 2019 and 5 more than 2015.

There is a bizarre anti-Trudeau strategic voting reasoning I've read a few times. Voting Bloc keeps Trudeau in power because Bloc can't form government. To replace Trudeau people need to vote for the Conservatives (only party that could win more seats)

I don't know if this theory is pushed by Quebec City because the more Bloc voters vote strategically this way, the more it helps Liberals at the moment (except 2-3 seats) if there is not one another strong party. 

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The NDP got stomped in Quebec in 2019, but even after that wipeout there was still a small number of ridings that weren't necessarily total lost causes. Are they trying to get the ex-MPs to run again or otherwise looking like they'll make any sort of effort in them, or has the whole province outside of Boulerice's seat been written off for the foreseeable future?

There was a newspaper article a few days ago about not many Quebec NDP MPs who lost in last election running again this time. There is François Choquette in Drummond and Brigitte Sansoucy in Saint-Hyacinthe. Guy Caron is trying for Rimouski Mayor in November.

It mentioned also the party does better where Québec Solidaire did best. Demographics of urban, young, does better among women, students. A goal to win 6 seats, targets Outremont, Laurier Ste-Marie, Beauport-Limoilou, Hochelaga, Sherbrooke.

Eve Péclet is a former MP in east end Montreal who will run in Outremont where she lives. I think there is one another former MP running

Since then Ruth Ellen Brosseau will make an announcement so it looks like she will run in Berthier-Maskinongé again.

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What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

For the Conservatives in Quebec, someone said the former Mayor of Trois-Rivières.
There is Dominique Vien in Bellechasse-Les Etchemins - Lévis. She is a former provincial Cabinet Minister for the Quebec Liberals. It will make at least one woman in their Quebec caucus.
Vincent Duhamel in Brome—Missisquoi who worked in investment and finance with an international career.
Frank Cavallaro in Mont-Royal, a tv weatherman.

The Bloc Québécois has Ensaf Haidar in Sherbrooke. She is the wife of Raif Badawi who has been detained in Saudia Arabia for many years.