Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Central Lake]

I think Hatman was discussing the Tory vote in Halifax, NS and not the Tory vote in St. John's N.L

Nevertheless, there is a point about the shifting urban and rural vote in Newfoundland. If we classify the ridings of St. John's East and St. John's South Pearl as urban and classify the ridings of Avalon, Long Range Mountains, Bonavista Burin Trinity and Coast of Bays Central Notre Dame as rural.

Then the CPC vote share in all the rural ridings was higher than the CPC vote share in the urban ridings in 2019 federal election.

[Central Lake]

Regarding the discussed Erin O' Toole blue collar strategy. It could have an effect in defending the ridings of Kenora and Essex

[Central Lake]

"My advice to the Conservatives is pretty much useless."

I appreciate you acknowledging that you won't support/vote for the Conservatives. Not trolling I actually mean it.

[Central Lake]

On another note, is it still possible to get a Ontario icon instead of Prussia.

[Central Lake]

Thanks Ishan

[Central Lake]

For the Conservatives, I would say keep stuff mostly the same including blue collar workers strategy except replace the appeal to muh centrists in urban areas strategy with a Rob/Doug Ford strategy.

General outline of things

1. Target every single non-urban/non-metropolitan riding held by the Liberals or NDP. Especially Northern Ontario and Newfoundland where were some big swings towards the CPC.

2. Try to emulate the Ford brothers and work hard on ethnic outreach for GTA seats. Strategy could be transferable the Vancouver area as well.

Some finer points: (I might think of more stuff later)

1. Do outreach and try to move the needle slightly in Indigenous communities located in current (and potentially future) CPC-NDP battleground ridings.

2. Vigorously target the two Beauport seats held by the BQ.

3. Don't limit ethnic/minority outreach to the GTA, Lower Mainland, Edmonton and Calgary. Put a similar effort wherever applicable such as Kitchener, Niagara Falls, Niagara Centre, Fredericton, N.B. etc.

[Central Lake]

I kind of get your second point. From anecdotal experience quite a number of people are reluctant to pay a membership fee.

[Central Lake]

To build off a previous post about NDP voters switching to Liberals. What is the absolute floor for the NDP? 12%? 9%?

The NDP got 16% of the vote in the last election so if the floor is 12% an additional 4% goes to the Liberals. Which is approximately 37% for the LPC.

What do you guys think this is the absolute floor for the NDP? In a situation where a right wing CPC is leading the LPC and the Conservatives are poised to win an election.

[Central Lake]

The number of CPC memberships has increased over the last couple of days according to Global News.

[Central Lake]

I find it interesting that the Conservative general election strategy I was thinking about seems to be gaining more traction. CPC targeting NDP seats, not leaning too heavily on fiscal conservatism, etc.
Even though I haven't been sharing it with people, I saw similar ideas on a twitter feed of a person called Bryan Breguet. DC had similar thoughts as well. So there might be a growing consensus (ok, consensus might be an exaggeration) by grassroots supporters as to what they want the Conservative party to pursue electorally. But the party establishment and media probably have other ideas.
The advice given by media pundits is not in good faith but that's another story.

[Central Lake]

Also Niagara Falls.

Most of those seats are held by the federal Conservatives currently. Granted the federal party won those ridings with 30%-40% of the vote and in 2018 Ford cleared 40% in Oshawa and Essex and lost those two ridings. But if Ford wins Niagara Centre it will be a first by either the federal or provincial conservatives. (As far as I know)

Anyway in addition to those ridings, I was thinking about more northern areas in Ontario, Manitoba, and B.C. On that note, the Saskatchewan Party defeated the provincial NDP in a byelection in a northern riding today. Also the CPC flipping Liberal seats in rural Newfoundland.

[Central Lake]

I find it interesting that the Conservative general election strategy I was thinking about seems to be gaining more traction. CPC targeting NDP seats, not leaning too heavily on fiscal conservatism, etc.
Even though I haven't been sharing it with people, I saw similar ideas on a twitter feed of a person called Bryan Breguet. DC had similar thoughts as well. So there might be a growing consensus (ok, consensus might be an exaggeration) by grassroots supporters as to what they want the Conservative party to pursue electorally. But the party establishment and media probably have other ideas.
The advice given by media pundits is not in good faith but that's another story.

If Poilievre is the next leader, as seems very likely, de-emphasizing fiscal conservatism will be tough. A better way for someone like him to target that vote would be anti-establishment rhetoric, which is something he's skilled at. But if the play is to move the CPC to the left on economics, Poilievre would be a very inauthentic quarterback.

That is the interesting or paradoxical thing. Most of the establishment and media say fiscal conservatism will serve the CPC well. (fiscally conservative and socially liberal etc. ) While at the same time (I know it is a small sample size) many grassroot supporters are concerned about Poilievre's fiscal conservatism in an electoral context.

[Central Lake]

Wait Andrew Coyne voted for the NDP

[Central Lake]

https://theupheaval.substack.com/p/reality-honks-back?utm_source=url

[Central Lake]

Also btw my community in Sri Lanka is associated with a political party called the Ceylon Workers Congress.

Even though most of these events happened before I was born, I have always felt affinity and sympathy towards negotiations, labour strikes, civil disobedience, etc.

[Central Lake]

Atlantic Canada interesting and Newfoundland seems has really moved right in recent years.  Maybe perhaps as William's ABC campaign becomes distant memory but also I think view Liberals hostile to energy sector may hurt them there never mind most Tory gains are in traditionally Liberal ridings, i.e. Rural Newfoundland not St. John's so Newfoundland seems to be starting to vote like rest of Canada.

Something interesting I've heard re: Newfoundland is that the large number of Alberta expats who came back to the rock brought their newfound conservatism with them. Surely that doesn't explain the whole shift, but it has probably played a role.

I think also feeling a left behind and feeling Liberals are too much of a big city party.  Fairly or not, I think Liberals and NDP have image they are large city parties whereas Tories more rural one so that probably plays some role as not always ideology but also views on which party most understands my issues.

I might be ignorant on this but to me rural P.E.I and rural Nova Scotia stand out in this regard. Parts of rural New Brunswick being Liberal due to the French/Acadian factor. With Newfoundland moving right, and Tories doing better in NDP areas in Ontario, P.E.I and N.S seem to be the only places with no movement.

In the 2021 election LPC got 46% in Egmont, 42% in Malpeque, 47% in Charlottetown, and 51% in Cardigan. Instead of rural, non-metropolitan might be a better descriptor. Still if P.E.I was transposed in Ontario, or Alberta won't it make sense for Charlottetown to go Liberal and the other three ridings going Conservative. Or a notable difference when Liberals do much better/Cons do much worse in Charlottetown as an urban centre.

Any thoughts why this might be the case.