Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[EastAnglianLefty]

So Trudeau is banning these weapons why exactly? They weren't the type of gun used in the shooting.

Because letting people own assault weapons has no benefits and substantial drawbacks?

[EastAnglianLefty]

So Trudeau is banning these weapons why exactly? They weren't the type of gun used in the shooting.

Because letting people own assault weapons has no benefits and substantial drawbacks?

Can you point to these said substantial drawbacks as a means of policy?

Are you familiar with the concept of mass shootings?

[EastAnglianLefty]

So Trudeau is banning these weapons why exactly? They weren't the type of gun used in the shooting.

Because letting people own assault weapons has no benefits and substantial drawbacks?

Can you point to these said substantial drawbacks as a means of policy?

Are you familiar with the concept of mass shootings?

Well we just had our worst mass shooting in our entire country's history and the perpetrator used exclusively illegal weapons that were almost certainly smuggled in through the reserves (the most famous is the Akwesasne Mohawk reserve where they're known to possess fully automatic AK47s) so this law is going to do precisely nothing to prevent the same thing from happening again. A few weaselly outlets claimed that he used a "legally registered firearm" in reference to a sidearm he took off the body of an RCMP officer he'd gunned down.

Trudeau can pass all the laws he wants but they won't stop any serious killer.

I have no problem with the idea that the measures will be ineffective. But that doesn't mean that there's any good reason it should be legal to own an assault weapon.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I cannot think of any country in Western world where parties on right do well amongst Black community.  Pretty sure Tories despite doing poorly do better than GOP does and probably I suspect Black support for Tories in Canada is more in line with what it is in UK with Tories than for GOP in US.  In UK, Tories get about 20% Black support which is probably depending on election similar for Canada but obviously varies on how they do overall.  I suspect Doug Ford probably got in high 20s and NDP probably won Black vote in 2018 provincial election.

20% is about what you'd expect the Tories to get in a good year, although their floor is significantly lower. There's also a distinction to be made between black Caribbean and black African ancestry voters - anecdotally, the Tories seem to have a much higher ceiling amongst the latter than the former, though it's difficult to be certain because they're both relatively small groups and there's very little in the way of detailed polling on this. There's also a significant difference between black voters in areas with a large black population (usually working class and very strong Labour) and black voters in 90%+ white areas (more likely to be middle class and more likely to vote like their neighbours.) Most black Tory MPs are good examples of this - they tend to be from a black African background (often second generation), they mostly grew up in overwhelmingly white areas and a significant proportion of them went to expensive private schools.

[EastAnglianLefty]

20% is about what you'd expect the Tories to get in a good year, although their floor is significantly lower. There's also a distinction to be made between black Caribbean and black African ancestry voters - anecdotally, the Tories seem to have a much higher ceiling amongst the latter than the former, though it's difficult to be certain because they're both relatively small groups and there's very little in the way of detailed polling on this. There's also a significant difference between black voters in areas with a large black population (usually working class and very strong Labour) and black voters in 90%+ white areas (more likely to be middle class and more likely to vote like their neighbours.) Most black Tory MPs are good examples of this - they tend to be from a black African background (often second generation), they mostly grew up in overwhelmingly white areas and a significant proportion of them went to expensive private schools.

Black Canadians and Black Brits both represent 3-4% of the national population, both have a fairly even split between Caribbean and roots..  Interestingly though it's the Caribbean population that's more concentrated in Canada (Toronto/Montreal - mostly Jamaican in the former, Haitian in the latter) and the African population more dispersed, while in England the opposite is the case (London is more African, other cities more Caribbean).

To an extent, although the bulk of the Caribbean population is in London and only a handful of other cities have significant communities. The difference is generally because the Caribbean communities were establish a generation or two earlier and were predominantly made up of public sector workers, whereas African communities have a spread of employment more representative of other predominantly working-class immigrant communities which were established around the same time.

Also, whilst there are Caribbean communities in more cities, I suspect that the African population in small towns and villages is higher than the Caribbean population, because the former is more middle-class.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Is there any pressure to change the CPC leadership election rules? They seem designed to make UK Labour's rulebook look sensible.

[EastAnglianLefty]

It's really weird to me that Al of all people is cherry-picking poll results to create some sort of narrative that doesn't exist (and that some here are lapping it up), but here are the cross-tabs:



As you can see, Quebecers have a more negative view of Christianity than Judaism.

I don't think that chart shows what you think it does. Every region has a more negative view of Christianity than Judaism, but the gap is notably narrower in Quebec than anywhere else.

[EastAnglianLefty]

I recommend you don't watch it.

Why do you always post this sort of crap then? It just seems like most of your posts are designed to racistly scaremonger about crime.

Sometimes, the reason is the obvious one.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Blaine Higgs seems to be surviving as Premier by a thread. Couldn't happen to a more deserving horrible person.

Another N.B. cabinet minister resigns from Blaine Higgs government
https://globalnews.ca/news/9788527/nb-trevor-holder-resigns-higgs-cabinet/

and with slightly different information
https://ca.movies.yahoo.com/brunswick-premier-loses-second-cabinet-161335475.html

On Wednesday, 26 out of 49 current riding presidents signed letters asking for Higgs to step down, claiming his leadership has divided the party.

What is the cause of his problems?

Officially, the repeal of Policy 713, which allows teens to be called by the pronoun of their choice in schools without parental approval, among other things.

Officiously, Higgs is trying to run the province and his party without listening to anybody (but his pastor), which has transformed the caucus, the Cabinet and party meetings into echo chambers where Higgs get upset if you don't agree with him.

How much more time would you give him?

He'll stay, he made pretty clear he'll call an election the second the party looks likely to get rid of him and replace every candidate by a lackey of him.

What are the selection arrangements for the New Brunswick PCs? Do the individual riding associations have a say, or is the decision ultimately in the hands of the party leader?

[EastAnglianLefty]

I don't think the NDP wants to be blamed for handing over the government to Skippy, so they're probably going to continue their timidity in their role as junior partners in the confidence and supply agreement.

Agreed.  Layton got blamed in 2006 by many on left over Harper winning even though wasn't his fault.  I mean it was voters who made decision but agreed want to avoid that.  I think bigger problem both parties face is changing electorate.  Loss of Red Wall in UK and Obama-Trump counties are not unique to respective places, we are seeing same thing.  Main thing is parties need to pivot.  For Liberals upper middle class suburbs much like Biden is where they will compensate and already have by and large.  For NDP, urban core ridings is where they will make up for potential loss of blue collar resource based ones. 

So even though things not looking good for NDP now, I do think NDP can still gain seats.  If they were to sweep downtown Toronto, gain Halifax, a few in Montreal like Laurier-Sainte Marie, maybe another seat or two in Edmonton, a few left leaning in Lower Mainland, that could offset the more blue collar ones many expect them to lose (not saying they will but real risk).

Agreed -- and they're well poised to gain the northern Saskatchewan seat (or at least just as likely as the Liberals depending on the candidate) following redistribution, plus they can still hold the northern Manitoba one and Nunavut (and gaining NWT is a possibility) and at least some of the less urban Vancouver Island ones. There's really only 5 or 6 rural non-Indigenous working class ridings the NDP holds right now (2 in northern Ontario, two on Vancouver Island, one in the BC interior, and maybe Skeena although that one also has a large Indigenous population). So really the realignment is already well on its way for the NDP and they are in a good position to have net gains even with a similar share of the popular vote if Libs fall a bit in urban cores.

I don't think shrugging and accepting it's a re-alignment is a viable option for a serious party (and yes, I accept the NDP may not necessarily meet this definition.) Even if the NDP were to sweep the urban cores, if they wanted to hold meaningful power in future then that isn't enough seats to do so. They'd either need to be able to extend into the ethnoburbs or blue-collar provincial seats and a likely Liberal revival in opposition is likely to be a lot easier in the former than the latter.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Do you think Stalin was better than Hitler?

Yes, actually. In the real world it is very often necessary to choose a lesser evil.

Do you think that people in Ukraine or then eastern Poland or the Balkans or Belarussia or Finland during World War II would have regarded Stalin as better than Hitler?

I'm aware that Hitler was also brutal to especially people in Ukraine and Poland, but I don't think for people in Ukraine that all that many people would have believed that Hitler was worse than Stalin.

There are some significant communities that used to exist in Ukraine and eastern Poland which no longer do because of Hitler. I think they might have had an opinion.