Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[DabbingSanta]

Election eve and it's going to be close. I expect the conservatives are being underestimated on here much like Doug Ford was in 2018 and Donald Trump was in 2016.  Political pundits often think too much and get morally outraged  at stuff the general public doesn't give a crap about.

[DabbingSanta]

A classic case of "expect" actually meaning "hope" there

No, that's what you and other communists are hoping. I don't  see any last minute liberal surge happening

[DabbingSanta]

A classic case of "expect" actually meaning "hope" there

No, that's what you and other communists are hoping. I don't  see any last minute liberal surge happening

Lolwut

I'm hoping for an NDP surge btw.

That could happen, and hopefully it takes away votes from the liberals

[DabbingSanta]

Political pundits often think too much and get morally outraged  at stuff the general public doesn't give a crap about.

If this is true, wouldn't it benefit the Liberals by meaning SNC-Lavalin and blackface don't matter?

Judging by the election results, this is probably true. Also, when it comes to likeability,  Trudeau has a certain charisma that Scheer lacks. He seems a bit smarmy, almost Ted Cruz like. I can't put my finger on it. It makes me wonder how well Mad Max would have done if he got the nomination.

[DabbingSanta]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1240271178692005889

[DabbingSanta]

Deadliest mass shooting here in 31 years.

Don't post his name or picture. Post Cst. Stevenson instead.  She died for us today doing her job. May she and everyone else rest in peace.

[DabbingSanta]

Given the extensive death toll and massive media coverage, I have decided to start a thread on the subject here

[DabbingSanta]

I think our patience is stretching thin. I feel deeply betrayed by our leaders, especially Trudeau, in how they have been dealing with all this and contributing to the panic. He also forcibly passed through gun control laws, bypassing parliament. This is a very dangerous precedent. These events have deeply changed how I view politics. Do not take for granted your rights and freedoms you might have today. I don't think we will ever fully recover from this.

[DabbingSanta]

...

I'm more worried about the precedent this sets than anything else. It may not be in bad faith this time but our freedoms should be far more safeguarded than this. We need to advocate for smaller and safer government, and put our citizens in charge. I believe we can all work towards a greater good without the government taking control.

[DabbingSanta]

Disappointed that my municipality is now enforcing face mask laws like much of the province. Our health unit rep was anti-mandatory mask but politics kept pressuring him and he finally caved. Luckily there are some great groups out there still trying to fight for our last freedoms. An extremely dark period in history!

In other news: I'll soon be a card carrying member of the Libertarian Party. I'm hopping on the #nomoreFord bandwagon a year late. 😎

[DabbingSanta]

I don't think the provincial election polling in Ontario has a grasp on what is happening in regards to the 2022 election. A significant portion on the right doesn't want anything to do with Doug Ford, and several third parties like the Libertarians and "New Blue" have emerged as alternatives.  Hard to believe that their share of the vote will be under 2%, especially with the Libertarians likely to run candidates in all 124 ridings.  A significant minor party turnout could result in a loss of seats and perhaps a Ford minority government for the 43rd parliament.

[DabbingSanta]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/travel-restictions-border-1.5911845

Beginning next week, all Canadians arriving in the country from abroad will be forced to spend time at a makeshift quarantine facility at their own expense.  The change comes weeks after Trudeau ordered all international flights on route to the Caribbean be cancelled.  People with a negative PCR test and vaccinated people will not be exempt.  People can cut their stay in the facility short to just 3 days by taking a COVID test.  Those freed following negative results will spend another two weeks in voluntary confinement at their homes. Those who test positive will be stuck in the quarantine facilities untik they recover.  This is another policy in blatant violation of our charter of rights and freedoms.  When will we say enough is enough?  We have been putting up with this for a year, and despite policies loosening elsewhere, Canada still seems to be following the advice of alarmists at the expense of their citizens.

[DabbingSanta]

Truly wonder what is going to happen next.

To all the canadians, who is going to win the next election for now?

Easily Trudeau, likely with a majority.  The conservatives have a serious geography problem.  They will win by huge margins in the Prairies and rural southern Ontario, but they will still lose in the GTA suburbs where it counts.

[DabbingSanta]

This COVID hotel ordeal is a complete disaster, as to be expected with anything run by the Trudeau government.  Where are the human rights complaints?  We can't have people being attacked, sexually assaulted, and not provided with food or water, nonetheless being detained illegally in the first place.
 What has happened to our country?  Is there any chance we get our freedoms back?

[DabbingSanta]

Toronto has a record number of COVID cases, including overwhelmed ICUs, despite being in lockdown for over four months.  The measures in place simply do not work.  End the lockdown!

[DabbingSanta]

338Canada has a new "election simulator" where you can input the share of the vote you expect each party will get in the next election and it will tell you the updated seat projections.  Works great!

The only downside with 338Canada is that they don't appear to take into account independent candidates or people who were ejected from their caucuses.  Ontario MPP Belinda Karahalios was kicked out last year for her opposition to Ford's COVID restrictions, and has now formed her own political party.  She plans to run in 2022, and while I expect she will lose, I would not be surprised if she got 20-25% of the vote in her riding, dividing the right wing vote.

Here are my current guesses regarding vote share and number of seats based on the new simulator.

Ontario's 43rd election:  PC minority government
PC: 35% popular vote, 60 seats
Liberal: 28% popular vote, 36 seats
NDP: 23% popular vote, 28 seats
Green: 6% popular vote, 1 seat
Other parties: 8% popular vote

Canada's 44th election:  PC minority government
PC: 35% popular vote, 160 seats
Liberal: 33% popular vote, 111 seats
Bloc: 8% popular vote, 40 seats
NDP: 15% popular vote, 22 seats
Green: 6% popular vote, 4 seats
Other parties: 3% popular vote

[DabbingSanta]

https://twitter.com/ColinDMello/status/1383819594968621062?s=20

What's going on here?

It feels like the PC leadership is worried about potentially having a caucus revolt on their hands. There's a significant chunk of the PC base that's seemingly enraged with Ford over all of the new restrictions: formerly big Ford supporters have even taken to calling him a "communist" over them. Not to mention, the PCs aren't exactly working with a super-strong majority to begin with: they require 63 seats to hold down their majority, but they only have 71, so it'd only take 9 of their MPPs to cross the aisle & either sit as independents or even just to threaten their support for a VoNC, which the NDP & Liberals would likely be more than happy with. Their polling numbers have also started to tank over the last week or so, too, if the movement seen in the last few polls is anything to go by.

We are the most locked down state level entity in North America.  A huge percent of his base, myself included, feel betrayed by his actions and mismanagement of this entire crisis, and the whole time his government has treated it like some sick reality TV show, threatening us like a bunch of children every time cases go up.  He is a sick, fascist bastard who deserves everything coming to him.  I'm glad the media and people are now speaking out.  Sadly, it took a very grave attempt at violation our rights — allowing police to stop and question people without probable cause — and the police subsequently refusing this demand and standing up for us, for everyone to wake up.

This has been going on for a while now.  The people have spoken.

I think you're toast this time, Dougie.  Good riddance.

[DabbingSanta]

Quick update on polling and projected seats courtesy 338Canada's electoral calculator. 

At the provincial level, not much has changed since I last posted here in April.  It is amazing that politicians can be so unpopular here, garnering only 30-35% of the voting population's support, yet they still have a huge advantage because of the way our elections work.  Multi-party systems are great for representing diverse viewpoints, but they also allow for really terrible incumbents to keep getting re-elected.  The ideological differences between the left and right are too great to form a coalition to defeat either Ford or Trudeau, so it looks like we might be stuck with both for a while.

Ontario's 43rd election:  PC minority government
PC: 34% popular vote, 58 seats
NDP: 27% popular vote, 33 seats
Liberal: 28% popular vote, 32 seats
Green: 7% popular vote, 1 seat
Other parties: 4% popular vote

Canada's 44th election:  Liberal majority government
Liberal: 36% popular vote, 174 seats
PC: 29% popular vote, 103 seats
NDP: 19% popular vote, 33 seats
Bloc: 7% popular vote, 26 seats
Green: 6% popular vote, 2 seats
Other parties: 3% popular vote

[DabbingSanta]

Canada should not have reopened the border with the US. As an American, I think they should keep us out forever.

I'm not a fan of international travel. In Montreal a third of cases are linked to international travel, even if people are double vaccinated. People traveling and welcoming tourists seems like an increase in cases like how it arrived in the first wave.

You can't just keep a multi-billion dollar industry closed forever. 

[DabbingSanta]

I was at the Windsor convoy this morning.  Very happy group, police have closed off the area but do not seem too concerned.  The bridge was closed but I believe it  has since reopened in limited capacity and they are rerouting traffic.  No sense things will get violent unless the government unfairly escalates tensions.  There were a lot of families and children as well.  I wish them the best

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not participating in the protest, but I wanted to check it out.  I live less than an hour away and it's pretty unusual when international news events happen here.

[DabbingSanta]

I was at the Windsor convoy this morning.  Very happy group, police have closed off the area but do not seem too concerned.  The bridge was closed but I believe it  has since reopened in limited capacity and they are rerouting traffic.  No sense things will get violent unless the government unfairly escalates tensions.  There were a lot of families and children as well.  I wish them the best

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not participating in the protest, but I wanted to check it out.  I live less than an hour away and it's pretty unusual when international news events happen here.

Is the protest blocking access to the bridge? I'm assuming no, based on your post?

It is blocking Huron Church Road, the main highway that leads to the bridge from the 401.  The entrance to the bridge near the university campus is now open, and traffic is being rerouted

[DabbingSanta]

No, whole cities are not being burned down in protest.  That is an outright lie.

Well, right wingers bought the myth of these new rules, since the vast majority of BLM protests didn't involve riots or otherwise illegal acts.

Beyond that, all 100% of these terrorists are blocking the streets of downtown Ottawa, impeding traffic and forcing businesses to close.  This, in itself, is subject to an injunction.

I find it more than a little odd that many of the same people who are praising Lightbound also criticized Prime Minister Trudeau for exercising his free speech rights in telling it like it is in regards to the Ottawa terrorists

[DabbingSanta]

Why are people constantly comparing BLM and Anti-Vaxx protests?

The majority of people approved of the BLM protests overall (but not the bad stuff) , found the protest's message moral, and hoped the movement continued. The majority of people do not approve of the anti-vaxx convoy, find the protest's message immoral, and hope the movement ends.

I will add that it's somewhat understandable that this is happening at the end of omicron, but 90% of these protestors felt the same way about ending all restrictions in 2021 and possibly even 2020, so that doesn't necessarily apply in all contests of the phrase "I agree with the protestors".

Sorry, you don’t get to decide what’s moral or not.  Also, the polls are rigged.  These protests have been largely peaceful. 

[DabbingSanta]

Why are people constantly comparing BLM and Anti-Vaxx protests?

The majority of people approved of the BLM protests overall (but not the bad stuff) , found the protest's message moral, and hoped the movement continued. The majority of people do not approve of the anti-vaxx convoy, find the protest's message immoral, and hope the movement ends.

I will add that it's somewhat understandable that this is happening at the end of omicron, but 90% of these protestors felt the same way about ending all restrictions in 2021 and possibly even 2020, so that doesn't necessarily apply in all contests of the phrase "I agree with the protestors".

Sorry, you don’t get to decide what’s moral or not.  Also, the polls are rigged.  These protests have been largely peaceful. 

A good chunk of them have been terrorizing the city and the residents want them gone. Including a lot of residents that aren't particularly political. The mall had to shut down because they can't justify becoming an omicron hot spot and facing a class action lawsuit from all the employees that work there.

I didn’t hear you saying this when BLM burned down entire cities last year.  Why do you suddenly care about lives and property?  Cause it fits your political agenda?  Hilarious.

[DabbingSanta]

Must say I'm very pleased with this sudden outbreak of backbenchers on both sides of the aisle growing a spine and criticizing their leader.

Come to think of it, it's become disturbing how the expectation that party members cannot criticize their leader has become normalized in Canadian politics. You only otherwise see this in the most totalitarian of dictatorships.

Canada has never been a true "free" country, nor is it a true representative democracy. The sooner you realize this the more everything starts to make sense.  With our population becoming more Americanized, I think there is an expectation for something that never really existed, like we are seeing right now with the truck convoy.