Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult. Also, he may need to remember that his own constituents are also Ottawans who also incensed by what occurring in the downtown core, and that he came within a heartbeat of having to find an actual job in 2015.

Are the electoral boundaries getting redrawn before 2025? If he wants to eliminate the slim possibility of losing his riding, he could use that as an excuse to move to a safer one. He should be pretty safe though, and if he loses badly enough to lose his own riding maybe he would want to be out of politics.

They should, the commissionners were appointed last November.

In other news, Kevin Falcon is now the BC Liberals leader.

Probably a mistake as too old guard and lots of baggage.  But at same time he is quite capable and could help in Lower Mainland suburbs with his transport background.  Still only see him becoming premier if public sours on NDP and so far that has not happened.  But may also be blessing in disguise for others since if he loses, good chance next one wins as by 2028 I suspect people will be ready for change.

[King of Kensington]

One area where Horgan succeeded is breaking the old "socialism vs. free enterprise" juggernaut that held out in BC provincial politics (where even urban social liberals would find the NDP to be too much of an "icky" workers party).  That's no longer really the case and I don't see much business hostility to Horgan.  Politics in BC is increasingly "progressive vs. conservative" and "metropolitan vs. non-metropolitan" like everywhere else and the BC NDP increasingly looks like the Liberal Party of Canada.

[2952-0-0]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult. Also, he may need to remember that his own constituents are also Ottawans who also incensed by what occurring in the downtown core, and that he came within a heartbeat of having to find an actual job in 2015.

He lives far away enough not to be impacted, and particularly enjoys the fact that the truckers are mostly harassing the "lefties" who live in central Ottawa.

But his constituency is rapidly suburbanizing. The famous Loudoun County is a good analogy of where it's going. He previously represented Nepean, which is much more inner suburban, so I can see him finding a safer seat if the next election is after April 1, 2024, when the new boundaries come into effect.

In other news, the Toronto rally went as well as possible. The police allowed for a pedestrian rally at Queen's Park, and didn't allow any trucks to gather in one spot, while forcing convoys to keep moving along until they were scattered in the maze that's Toronto traffic. The Vancouver rally also ended without any occupation. There's a small occupation in Quebec City, but police have been aggressively fining those who honked, so there's little impact to residents.

[King of Kensington]

Agree his riding is not that safe and I can't imagine the truckers are particularly popular there.  But he obviously takes pleasure in the so-called Freedom Convoy making life miserable for "leftists" in Ottawa.

[beesley]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult. Also, he may need to remember that his own constituents are also Ottawans who also incensed by what occurring in the downtown core, and that he came within a heartbeat of having to find an actual job in 2015.

Are the electoral boundaries getting redrawn before 2025? If he wants to eliminate the slim possibility of losing his riding, he could use that as an excuse to move to a safer one. He should be pretty safe though, and if he loses badly enough to lose his own riding maybe he would want to be out of politics.

Not sure of the exact figures but it seems plausible to me that Ottawa has enough population that means one riding (almost certainly his) will take in parts of rural Eastern Ontario outside the city limits.

[DC Al Fine]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult. Also, he may need to remember that his own constituents are also Ottawans who also incensed by what occurring in the downtown core, and that he came within a heartbeat of having to find an actual job in 2015.

Are the electoral boundaries getting redrawn before 2025? If he wants to eliminate the slim possibility of losing his riding, he could use that as an excuse to move to a safer one. He should be pretty safe though, and if he loses badly enough to lose his own riding maybe he would want to be out of politics.

Boundary changes are ongoing. New boundaries can't be used until seven months after they are passed, which is roughly April 2024 under current timelines. So it depends if/when the government falls.

[MaxQue]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult. Also, he may need to remember that his own constituents are also Ottawans who also incensed by what occurring in the downtown core, and that he came within a heartbeat of having to find an actual job in 2015.

Are the electoral boundaries getting redrawn before 2025? If he wants to eliminate the slim possibility of losing his riding, he could use that as an excuse to move to a safer one. He should be pretty safe though, and if he loses badly enough to lose his own riding maybe he would want to be out of politics.

Not sure of the exact figures but it seems plausible to me that Ottawa has enough population that means one riding (almost certainly his) will take in parts of rural Eastern Ontario outside the city limits.

We don't have numbers yet, so it's all guesswork. We are getting them next week, through (the 9th).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult. Also, he may need to remember that his own constituents are also Ottawans who also incensed by what occurring in the downtown core, and that he came within a heartbeat of having to find an actual job in 2015.

He lives far away enough not to be impacted, and particularly enjoys the fact that the truckers are mostly harassing the "lefties" who live in central Ottawa.

But his constituency is rapidly suburbanizing. The famous Loudoun County is a good analogy of where it's going. He previously represented Nepean, which is much more inner suburban, so I can see him finding a safer seat if the next election is after April 1, 2024, when the new boundaries come into effect.

In other news, the Toronto rally went as well as possible. The police allowed for a pedestrian rally at Queen's Park, and didn't allow any trucks to gather in one spot, while forcing convoys to keep moving along until they were scattered in the maze that's Toronto traffic. The Vancouver rally also ended without any occupation. There's a small occupation in Quebec City, but police have been aggressively fining those who honked, so there's little impact to residents.

His riding seems to be largely unaffected by the Loudoun County type trend. Turnout in Carleton went up by about 8300 votes from 2015 to 2019, and Poilievre's vote count went up by about 4400. The Liberals gained votes in 2019 too, but their increase was the smallest - interestingly the NDP did really well in increasing vote count.

In 2021, turnout went up 3600 votes, and Poilievre's count went up 3200 - the Liberals went down about 2200, actually had a worse vote count than both 2015 and 2019, when the riding had a smaller pool of voters.

So for whatever reason, even though all the fundamentals point to Carleton becoming a CPC-LPC swing riding, Poilievre's hold on the riding remains pretty strong, as the newcomers aren't really breaking for the LPC.

[T'Chenka]

The Ottawa Police Service (OPS) announced the new tactic in a tweet Sunday afternoon, as the protest against COVID-19 public health measures in the city's parliamentary precinct — a protest several political leaders have called an occupation — continues for a second weekend.

Anyone who brings in those supplies could be arrested, OPS said.

Police did not respond to a request for comment, citing officer safety. But on Sunday night the OPS said in a press release that seven people had been arrested over the course of the day — six people on mischief-related charges and one for driving while prohibited.

More than 100 tickets were issued for infractions like excessive honking, driving the wrong way, having easily accessible alcohol and lacking the right class of licence, OPS said.

There are also more than 60 active investigations underway, primarily for hate crimes, thefts, mischief and property damage, police said — down from 97 earlier in the day.

SOURCE:
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/ottawa-convoy-protests-second-weekend-1.6341510

Also in Ottawa today, 56 new confirmed COVID cases and 1 COVID death.

[King of Kensington]

Can Poilievre win where it matters in a general election?

[2952-0-0]

Justin Trudeau emerged in Parliament today, where he repeated his tough line that the protest has to end now.

Also, more protesters are blocking the Ambassador Bridge in Windsor. I can't believe how stupid they are. First, they will directly annoy real truckers who are doing their jobs, and who won't hesitate to rough them up. Second, all the business interests in Ontario will be giving Doug Ford an earful to come out of hiding, and to tell the Conservatives to stop their thug-hugging.

[2952-0-0]

It's just a poll of Ottawa, but the mood among all Canadians won't be much different. 67% of people oppose the occupation, and 87% of people want the convoy to go home. Even 46% who supported the convoy want it to end. 64% of Conservative supporters oppose the convoy. No person in power gets good reviews from Ottawans.

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/majority-of-ottawa-residents-oppose-freedom-convoy-protest-poll-finds-1.5771778

https://twitter.com/DavidColetto/status/1490837096076300288

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The convoy seems to only be getting more radical, and more reports of nasty stuff is coming out of Ottawa. I was listening to an episode of Steve Paikin's show with Erin kelly from ASI (Polly), and Polly's data suggests that Canadians went from being split on sympathy for the convoy to being more in opposition - granted Polly's methodology is a little dubious, but it would make sense that support is going down with time. I was personally defensive of the "truckers'" right to do what they were doing, despite some of the elements present, but the protest has to come to an end at some point. Based on anecdotal reports from people I know in Ottawa, things are getting worse, anxiety and tension is running high, so things could get ugly soon.

Poilievre and much of the CPC hitched their wagons to the truckers - recently, a couple of CPC MPs came out against the protestors, but the majority are still backing them, or at least expressing sympathy. This is a risk - if this blows over soon, Poilievre will be rewarded in energizing this bloc of support for the leadership election, and most ordinary voters will have forgotten by the next election. But if there's a prolonged blockade and these events make a lasting impact in the public memory, then they might be shooting themselves in the foot.

[2952-0-0]

Poilievre and much of the CPC hitched their wagons to the truckers - recently, a couple of CPC MPs came out against the protestors, but the majority are still backing them, or at least expressing sympathy. This is a risk - if this blows over soon, Poilievre will be rewarded in energizing this bloc of support for the leadership election, and most ordinary voters will have forgotten by the next election. But if there's a prolonged blockade and these events make a lasting impact in the public memory, then they might be shooting themselves in the foot.

At this very moment, the OPP are on the way to the Ambassador Bridge, and they will definitely crack some skulls in the process. As I stated before, the longer the occupation in Ottawa lasts, the more radicalized its participants; and the higher the chance that it ends with truncheons, tear gas, and mass arrests.

Then what? Poilievre and co. could declare these arrests as "hurr hurr Turdeau CCP-style political persecution", and champion these supposed "political prisoners", which would help them win back PPC support. But, the criminal prosecutions will take years, and will remain a cause celebre among their base. Poilievre and co. will be forced to continue championing them in order to retain their loyalty. The CPC can forget about even retaining official opposition status, let alone form government. The base simply won't let the CPC forget.

Or, the other choice is to say nothing and move on after the public have lost interest. The right-wing base will be angered that Poilievre will have done little more than pay lip service to their cause, and thus he would be seen as "slimy opportunistic politician #8432". A quick browse at Poilievre and Bergen's Twitter feeds indicates the base are demanding he do more to "help the freedom fighters". Poilievre has been completely silent, while Bergen has been spouting the usual BS in Parliament without doing more.

It's the same old problem of not being able to both motivate their base and attract the median voter, except this time it's playing out when Erin O'Toole's body is still warm.

[afleitch]

I think it's interesting that yet another Serious Conservative Party has fallen to the 4chanisation of right of centre politics. It's a very strange sociopathy.

[T'Chenka]

I think it's interesting that yet another Serious Conservative Party has fallen to the 4chanisation of right of centre politics. It's a very strange sociopathy.

The party needs to be moderate to have any success, but the party isn't interested in being moderate. O'Toole lied to win the primary and then pivoted to the center during the election, but a more honest politician probably won't be able to win the primary. They're basically screwed, which is a good thing for Liberal or NDP supporters. Unless you subscribe to the idea that "Trudeau's Liberals need to be punished for their short-comings so they can evolve into a better party for when they take back Ottawa".

[StateBoiler]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult.

Your country has presidentialized the Prime Minister position already as demonstrated by the Parliament and committees rarely meeting the last few years and everything handled by an unelected bureaucratic PMO, and if Trudeau's Liberals are not a personality cult, what are they?

Anyway, business question. What naval-minded military installations does Canada have in its far north? If it's minimal, what other military installations do they have that are intended to cover their Arctic territory and near sea lanes?

[StateBoiler]

I think it's interesting that yet another Serious Conservative Party has fallen to the 4chanisation of right of centre politics. It's a very strange sociopathy.

The party needs to be moderate to have any success, but the party isn't interested in being moderate. O'Toole lied to win the primary and then pivoted to the center during the election...

Yet they still lost and their share of the vote did not increase at all. You're telling them to do a strategy that just failed. Anybody that wants the Conservative Party to move left should've in hindsight voted for the Conservatives this past election. They would've lost their most right-wing voters to Bernier's party and would've still won, giving the resulting O'Toole ministry the strength to  stand up against what those voters said since they won without them, and would've resulted in Trudeau being removed from power when it's clear the Liberals are late in their time in power and out of ideas for how Trudeau has to govern when he's plausibly been the worst Prime Minister of Canada post-World War II removing the ones that never had a chance to govern in Turner, Clark, and Campbell.

So the Conservatives are going to go right, the Liberals will stick with their present government that is failing on multiple policy fronts and is begging to lose power yet the other parties won't let them, the masses will not vote for the NDP because they are the NDP (and they largely don't outside of B.C.), and the Bloc vote in Quebec will either stay where it's at or go up a little. Excellent near-term future. Hard to see how Ford and Legault lose when that's your political climate federally.

[CumbrianLefty]

In the end its not about winning or losing power.

As with the British Tories, the Canadian Tories becoming a full on Qanonized death cult in the manner of the GOP is not going to be a good thing - domestically or indeed for the wider world.

[DabbingSanta]

I was at the Windsor convoy this morning.  Very happy group, police have closed off the area but do not seem too concerned.  The bridge was closed but I believe it  has since reopened in limited capacity and they are rerouting traffic.  No sense things will get violent unless the government unfairly escalates tensions.  There were a lot of families and children as well.  I wish them the best

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not participating in the protest, but I wanted to check it out.  I live less than an hour away and it's pretty unusual when international news events happen here.

[T'Chenka]

I was at the Windsor convoy this morning.  Very happy group, police have closed off the area but do not seem too concerned.  The bridge was closed but I believe it  has since reopened in limited capacity and they are rerouting traffic.  No sense things will get violent unless the government unfairly escalates tensions.  There were a lot of families and children as well.  I wish them the best

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not participating in the protest, but I wanted to check it out.  I live less than an hour away and it's pretty unusual when international news events happen here.

Is the protest blocking access to the bridge? I'm assuming no, based on your post?

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult.

Your country has presidentialized the Prime Minister position already as demonstrated by the Parliament and committees rarely meeting the last few years and everything handled by an unelected bureaucratic PMO, and if Trudeau's Liberals are not a personality cult, what are they?

Presidentialization of the PMO has basically been made inevitable by our unimaginably hyper-partisan legislative branch. A "rebel" in Canada is an MP who votes with his party only 97% of the time. If you think Poilievre saying "I'm running for PM" is Americanizing/Presidentializing the PMO, you're noticing it about 30 years too late. Chretien substantially centralized power around the PMO, Harper made it worse by muzzling his caucus, and Trudeau escalated it by effectively turning the MPs into his electoral votes.

"I'm running for PM" isn't even that weird to say. Not factually correct, but well within today's norms. If you've ever been to any kind of partisan rally in Canada recently, you'll know that it's incredibly common to hear things like "the next Prime Minister/Premier" in referring to party leaders. Everyone knows that's what Canadian Politics has come down to, it makes no sense to act like Poilievre is singlehandedly changing norms.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I might add that the CPC has by far the most "democratic" caucus in the sense of being able to oppose the leadership in any substantial way, and as we found out, the power to kick out the leader. You might dislike the power this gives the CPC right, but from a purely Westminster democratic sense, the MPs aren't supposed to blindly back the leader on every vote, the way Liberal MPs have been expected to do.

For example, I can think of four Liberal MPs - Lamoureux, McKay, Tassi and Scarpaleggia - who were all social conservatives until Trudeau came around and made those views punishable by removal. A Westminster purist would see more issue with MPs not being allowed to differ from party lines, than someone saying "I'm running for PM" in a Youtube video.

[DabbingSanta]

I was at the Windsor convoy this morning.  Very happy group, police have closed off the area but do not seem too concerned.  The bridge was closed but I believe it  has since reopened in limited capacity and they are rerouting traffic.  No sense things will get violent unless the government unfairly escalates tensions.  There were a lot of families and children as well.  I wish them the best

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not participating in the protest, but I wanted to check it out.  I live less than an hour away and it's pretty unusual when international news events happen here.

Is the protest blocking access to the bridge? I'm assuming no, based on your post?

It is blocking Huron Church Road, the main highway that leads to the bridge from the 401.  The entrance to the bridge near the university campus is now open, and traffic is being rerouted

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I was at the Windsor convoy this morning.  Very happy group, police have closed off the area but do not seem too concerned.  The bridge was closed but I believe it  has since reopened in limited capacity and they are rerouting traffic.  No sense things will get violent unless the government unfairly escalates tensions.  There were a lot of families and children as well.  I wish them the best

EDIT: Just to clarify, I'm not participating in the protest, but I wanted to check it out.  I live less than an hour away and it's pretty unusual when international news events happen here.

Not that surprising, since in a bizarre twist of fate Canada's most important border crossing is coincidentally also the city with the most PPC support in the country. That's probably a decent proxy for hardcore trucker convoy support, so it isn't surprising that this happened.

None of the major parties seem to be really gaining from this either. While association with the convoy might hurt PP, Trudeau hasn't exactly been covering himself with glory either. He's the Prime Minister and yet he's been reduced to lamely saying "stop" as key economic arteries grind to a halt as a result of blockade. The general perception I've seen from regular left-of-center Canadians is that he's basically throwing rocks at a hornets nest without any contingency plan. Trudeau had to leave Parliament early yesterday, almost certainly because the White House was freaking out over the nearly half billion in daily trade being held up at the border. It's gotten to the point where even longtime Liberal MP Joël Lightbound have started breaking ranks and calling out Trudeau for being divisive.

In theory Singh is in a great position to act Prime Ministerial and talk tough without having to actually deal with the consequences but he's reverted to his usual HR speak of "we can't tolerate racism" and "this is unacceptable". I've had a problem with Singh's leadership for ages but I think I can put a pin on the biggest problem he has: he has zero expectation of becoming Prime Minister, to the point where he's been a Federal leader for years yet can't give a straightforward answer whenever anyone asks what he'd do in response to any given problem as PM. At this moment his two biggest opponents are squabbling in the dirt and he can go any direction he wants and plausibly come out on top. He can get tough and talk about seizing trucks or charging million dollar fines or he can be conciliatory and talk about ending divisiveness and bringing people together but instead he's just copying Trudeau but without the force of government behind him. The NDP desperately needs a more ambitious leader but the base inexplicably loves him.

Del Duca, incidentally, has been doing exactly that and has been relentlessly hammering Ford and talking up how hard he'd crack down if he were Premier. Ford, incidentally, is probably the biggest loser here; so long as mandates (and the reaction to mandates) are the dominant story he's going to bleed to both flanks simultaneously. His only hope seems to be that his enemies all trip on their shoelaces. To be fair despite the groundswell of protesters the right-of-PC parties still seem to be totally uncoordinated and DD seems less likeable every time I see him so I'm not counting Doug out yet.