Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[beesley]

I'd be curious to see a poll by poll breakdown of the riding but while the NDP probably dominates most reserves I'm pretty confident that the ones that they don't (again, west of Manitoba) are far more likely to go Conservative than Liberal.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/
http://www.election-atlas.ca/bc/

[Estrella]

Ancedotally, the poll with the highest NDP % in the country (might have been in 2015, I don't remember) was a rez on Vancouver Island.

[mileslunn]

Southeast Asian: Mostly Vietnamese here and probably mostly Liberal but some NDP and Tories too.  They don't go as heavily Tory as they do GOP in US nor as much as they go L/NP in Australia.  In Australia I believe Vietnamese go heavily L/NP while in US usually GOP, although Obama in 2012 (not 2008) and Clinton in 2016 did win here, but flipped back to Trump 2020.

I've mentioned this before, but the Vietnamese population in Ottawa (used to) vote heavily NDP - at least the one's in Ottawa Centre. Paul Dewar's mother was responsible for bringing over a lot of Vietnamese refugees when she was mayor, so they voted for him en masse out of loyalty. Walking through Chinatown during an election, you would see Paul Dewar signs in every Vietnamese restaurant window.

Which is interesting as in US they usually vote GOP, although it appears Obama 2012 and Clinton 2016 won them.  Also go heavily L/NP in Australia.  On other hand in France, I believe they tend to vote quite heavily Socialist.

[King of Kensington]

British Columbia: Liberals do better than amongst general population, but don't have near the lock or dominance as they do in Central Canada.  Likewise both NDP and Tories tend to do better amongst visible minorities in BC than they do in Ontario.  BC while still has racism, has highest rate of intermarriage of any province.

The composition of the VM is different from Ontario, with Chinese largest group and few Blacks, not only compared to Ontario but even the Prairie provinces.  So overall VM vote probably less Liberal.  However there does seem to be a GTA-ization in Lower Mainland voting patterns, both in affluent suburbs and with growth in South Asian population.

The NDP does better in BC than Ontario, hard to imagine a Burnaby South-type riding going NDP in the GTA except in very favorable circumstances.  The West Coast has a more left anti-establishment streak, hence higher NDP and Green vote.  

ETA:  More aptly may be described as an anti-Conservative trend than a Liberal trend, given that Liberals lost some votes to NDP and Greens in the last election, but vote remained quite efficient.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I'd be curious to see a poll by poll breakdown of the riding but while the NDP probably dominates most reserves I'm pretty confident that the ones that they don't (again, west of Manitoba) are far more likely to go Conservative than Liberal.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/
http://www.election-atlas.ca/bc/

Much appreciated! I wish the overlays had better labeling though, it's a bit of a hassle to correlate the polling with the map of reserves

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

It's more about Indigenous representation in high-level Cabinet. Only 3 ever were in "real" Cabinet positions (excluding Ministers of State and other junior positions) and none currently.

It probably doesn't help that the ridings with the highest number of reserves typically go NDP and most of the ones that don't (mostly in BC/AB/SA) go Conservative. The Liberals don't exactly have a deep pool of strong candidates to draw from without JWR

Indigenous I think generally go pretty massively either NDP or Liberal but rarely Conservative.  Tories might do somewhat better amongst Metis but doubt they win them, but might as most in Prairies.  Now in Far north, Tories occasionally win indigenous vote like Leona Aguulak of Nunavut but in Far North generally people vote based on candidate not party.

That may be the case for people outside of reserves who identify as Indigenous but I'm talking specifically about the votes of the actual reserves themselves. West of Manitoba the Liberals have even less traction than the Tories.

For example, take a look at Skeena-Bulkley Valley. It's represented provincially by a Liberal councillor from one of the pro-pipeline nations and sits at the center of the whole controversy but the federal Liberals barely broke double digits there last election.

I'd be curious to see a poll by poll breakdown of the riding but while the NDP probably dominates most reserves I'm pretty confident that the ones that they don't (again, west of Manitoba) are far more likely to go Conservative than Liberal.

I'm not aware of a single reserve in the country (that isn't plurality White, yes they exist) that voted Conservative...

After far too much crossreferencing it appears at least a few northern BC reserves and villages went Conservative, albeit it isn't always obvious whether they actually compose the entire voting population at a poll or not. These include:

* The Taku River Tlingit (conveniently their reserve actually is covered by the polling boundary)
* The Prophet River Nation
* The Fort Nelson Nation
* Tsay Keh Dene
* The Saulteau First Nations
* The West Moberly First Nations
* The Blueberry River First Nations
* The Doig River Nations
* The Halfway River Nations
* Nadleh Whuten
* The Stellat'en First Nation

and in a particularly interesting twist, it appears the poll compromising the Wet'suwet'en Nation, site of the famous rail-blocking dispute over the development of pipelines, went Conservative by a solid 52%. This matches up with the elected councilors taking a more pro-pipeline position as opposed to the hereditary chiefs, though if it's actually true then I'm a bit surprised that nobody actually bothered to check.

That's just in the three northernmost ridings so presumably there are plenty more where that came from. I thought the coastal reserves were monolithically NDP when they went 70-80% NDP but a few of the interior polls that covered reserves (specifically in Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies)  somehow went 95% (!!!) Tory so I wouldn't be surprised if some of the Prairie reserves had similarly North Korean levels of single party support.

If anyone wants to double check feel free. My suspicion is that the reason you aren't aware of Conservative voting reserves (or "unceded villages", it gets complicated in BC) is because it isn't really in anyone's interest to bring them up; obviously the Liberals and NDP would prefer to monopolize the non-white vote by branding the Tories as the Racist White Guy Party while the Tories themselves are utterly inept on Indian Affairs and have only ever won those votes on the basis of economic policy, so they aren't likely to actually take advantage. I noticed that the coastal, heavily NDP voting descriptions tended to focus more on talking about "preservation" while the ones in Tory territory spent more space talking about economic development.

Maybe the most extreme example of this are the Salteau, whose description reads more like that of a corporation than of a reserve:

Summary of Economic Development Agreements, Community Businesses and Joint Ventures

Saulteau is involved in a variety of ventures which include: Twin Sisters Native Plant Nursery, 6 Nations Ventures, 3 Nations Ventures, 4ever green resources LP, Saulteau Safety and Secutity, Saulteau Camp Services, Saulteau Communications, and Little Prairie Community Forest. Saulteau also receives a variety of benefits from joint-ventures and partnerships with companies such as: Britco-Airamark, Bailey Helicopters, North Cariboo Air, Ruskin Construction, FMI Electrical Installations, Tetratec EVA, MTS Trucking, Jake’s Construction and KMC

Economic Development Background

Saulteau is currently reviewing the structure of its economic development program, businesses and joint-ventures. Saulteau is involved in a variety of enterprises that provide jobs and benefits to the community. Chief and Council will consider recommendations to restructure the Economic Development department and potentially create a ‘stand-alone’ economic development corporation with an independent Board of Directors that would manage and operate all of Saulteau’s business interests.

[King of Kensington]

There are 5 Black MPs:

Emmanuel Dubourg, Bourassa (Haitian)
Greg Fergus, Hull-Aylmer (Montserratian descent)
Matthew Green, Hamilton Centre (Black Canadian)
Ahmed Hussen, York South-Weston (Somali)
Marci Ien, Toronto Centre (Trinidadian parentage)

Four are Liberals, one is NDP.

Certainly they're super-Liberal.  NDP may be above average too, they seem to do well among Black Nova Scotians, and anecdotally a lot of young, educated Black Canadians seem to vote NDP as well. Conservative support is very low.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'd be curious to see a poll by poll breakdown of the riding but while the NDP probably dominates most reserves I'm pretty confident that the ones that they don't (again, west of Manitoba) are far more likely to go Conservative than Liberal.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/
http://www.election-atlas.ca/bc/

Much appreciated! I wish the overlays had better labeling though, it's a bit of a hassle to correlate the polling with the map of reserves

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

It's more about Indigenous representation in high-level Cabinet. Only 3 ever were in "real" Cabinet positions (excluding Ministers of State and other junior positions) and none currently.

It probably doesn't help that the ridings with the highest number of reserves typically go NDP and most of the ones that don't (mostly in BC/AB/SA) go Conservative. The Liberals don't exactly have a deep pool of strong candidates to draw from without JWR

Indigenous I think generally go pretty massively either NDP or Liberal but rarely Conservative.  Tories might do somewhat better amongst Metis but doubt they win them, but might as most in Prairies.  Now in Far north, Tories occasionally win indigenous vote like Leona Aguulak of Nunavut but in Far North generally people vote based on candidate not party.

That may be the case for people outside of reserves who identify as Indigenous but I'm talking specifically about the votes of the actual reserves themselves. West of Manitoba the Liberals have even less traction than the Tories.

For example, take a look at Skeena-Bulkley Valley. It's represented provincially by a Liberal councillor from one of the pro-pipeline nations and sits at the center of the whole controversy but the federal Liberals barely broke double digits there last election.

I'd be curious to see a poll by poll breakdown of the riding but while the NDP probably dominates most reserves I'm pretty confident that the ones that they don't (again, west of Manitoba) are far more likely to go Conservative than Liberal.

I'm not aware of a single reserve in the country (that isn't plurality White, yes they exist) that voted Conservative...

After far too much crossreferencing it appears at least a few northern BC reserves and villages went Conservative, albeit it isn't always obvious whether they actually compose the entire voting population at a poll or not. These include:

* The Taku River Tlingit (conveniently their reserve actually is covered by the polling boundary)
* The Prophet River Nation
* The Fort Nelson Nation
* Tsay Keh Dene
* The Saulteau First Nations
* The West Moberly First Nations
* The Blueberry River First Nations
* The Doig River Nations
* The Halfway River Nations
* Nadleh Whuten
* The Stellat'en First Nation

and in a particularly interesting twist, it appears the poll compromising the Wet'suwet'en Nation, site of the famous rail-blocking dispute over the development of pipelines, went Conservative by a solid 52%. This matches up with the elected councilors taking a more pro-pipeline position as opposed to the hereditary chiefs, though if it's actually true then I'm a bit surprised that nobody actually bothered to check.

That's just in the three northernmost ridings so presumably there are plenty more where that came from. I thought the coastal reserves were monolithically NDP when they went 70-80% NDP but a few of the interior polls that covered reserves (specifically in Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies)  somehow went 95% (!!!) Tory so I wouldn't be surprised if some of the Prairie reserves had similarly North Korean levels of single party support.

If anyone wants to double check feel free. My suspicion is that the reason you aren't aware of Conservative voting reserves (or "unceded villages", it gets complicated in BC) is because it isn't really in anyone's interest to bring them up; obviously the Liberals and NDP would prefer to monopolize the non-white vote by branding the Tories as the Racist White Guy Party while the Tories themselves are utterly inept on Indian Affairs and have only ever won those votes on the basis of economic policy, so they aren't likely to actually take advantage. I noticed that the coastal, heavily NDP voting descriptions tended to focus more on talking about "preservation" while the ones in Tory territory spent more space talking about economic development.

Maybe the most extreme example of this are the Salteau, whose description reads more like that of a corporation than of a reserve:

Summary of Economic Development Agreements, Community Businesses and Joint Ventures

Saulteau is involved in a variety of ventures which include: Twin Sisters Native Plant Nursery, 6 Nations Ventures, 3 Nations Ventures, 4ever green resources LP, Saulteau Safety and Secutity, Saulteau Camp Services, Saulteau Communications, and Little Prairie Community Forest. Saulteau also receives a variety of benefits from joint-ventures and partnerships with companies such as: Britco-Airamark, Bailey Helicopters, North Cariboo Air, Ruskin Construction, FMI Electrical Installations, Tetratec EVA, MTS Trucking, Jake’s Construction and KMC

Economic Development Background

Saulteau is currently reviewing the structure of its economic development program, businesses and joint-ventures. Saulteau is involved in a variety of enterprises that provide jobs and benefits to the community. Chief and Council will consider recommendations to restructure the Economic Development department and potentially create a ‘stand-alone’ economic development corporation with an independent Board of Directors that would manage and operate all of Saulteau’s business interests.

Using the Interactive map you provided, I looked up "Taku River Tlingit", which takes me to the "Unnamed 10" reserve (pop. 28) outside of Atlin. The poll that covers the reserve did go Conservative, but it also includes the community of Atlin (pop. 241) which is majority White.

I checked some of the other ones, and it's unclear whether the reserves themselves voted Conservative, as they make up only part of the polls they're in too, but the poll boundaries don't neatly match dissemination area boundaries, so it's hard to tell. Undoubtedly some of them make up the majority of their poll's population, but as they have lower turnouts, it's hard to say how they voted exactly. Generally, while the polls they're in did go Conservative, they were less Conservative than the surrounding polls.

[DC Al Fine]

Former military ombudsman confirms he raised concerns about Vance with Sajjan in 2018

Former military ombudsman Gary Walbourne says he did raise an allegation of inappropriate behaviour by Gen. Jonathan Vance with Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan in a 2018 meeting — but said Sajjan refused to see evidence Walbourne offered in support of the allegation.

Snip

"Yes, I did directly tell him about an allegation of inappropriate behaviour against the chief of defence staff,” said Walbourne to the committee.

“I did tell the minister what the allegation was. I reached into my pocket to show him the evidence I was holding. He pushed back from the table and said, ‘No.'”

“The minister didn’t want to see the evidence."

Pretty damning stuff for the Defence minister, particularly given the timeline:

Mar 1, 2018 - Sajjan refuses to see evidence against Vance.

Mar 9, 2018 - Admiral Norman charged with breach of trust.

Vance had relieved Norman of duty in 2017 on the same day he was briefed of allegation against Norman (after briefing Sajjan & PMO as well).

Unrelated, surely.

[StateBoiler]

Was there any more political fallout to the Payette resignation?

[DC Al Fine]

Was there any more political fallout to the Payette resignation?

Not really, no. It was more of an inside baseball type thing.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I'd be curious to see a poll by poll breakdown of the riding but while the NDP probably dominates most reserves I'm pretty confident that the ones that they don't (again, west of Manitoba) are far more likely to go Conservative than Liberal.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/
http://www.election-atlas.ca/bc/

Much appreciated! I wish the overlays had better labeling though, it's a bit of a hassle to correlate the polling with the map of reserves

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

It's more about Indigenous representation in high-level Cabinet. Only 3 ever were in "real" Cabinet positions (excluding Ministers of State and other junior positions) and none currently.

It probably doesn't help that the ridings with the highest number of reserves typically go NDP and most of the ones that don't (mostly in BC/AB/SA) go Conservative. The Liberals don't exactly have a deep pool of strong candidates to draw from without JWR

Indigenous I think generally go pretty massively either NDP or Liberal but rarely Conservative.  Tories might do somewhat better amongst Metis but doubt they win them, but might as most in Prairies.  Now in Far north, Tories occasionally win indigenous vote like Leona Aguulak of Nunavut but in Far North generally people vote based on candidate not party.

That may be the case for people outside of reserves who identify as Indigenous but I'm talking specifically about the votes of the actual reserves themselves. West of Manitoba the Liberals have even less traction than the Tories.

For example, take a look at Skeena-Bulkley Valley. It's represented provincially by a Liberal councillor from one of the pro-pipeline nations and sits at the center of the whole controversy but the federal Liberals barely broke double digits there last election.

I'd be curious to see a poll by poll breakdown of the riding but while the NDP probably dominates most reserves I'm pretty confident that the ones that they don't (again, west of Manitoba) are far more likely to go Conservative than Liberal.

I'm not aware of a single reserve in the country (that isn't plurality White, yes they exist) that voted Conservative...

After far too much crossreferencing it appears at least a few northern BC reserves and villages went Conservative, albeit it isn't always obvious whether they actually compose the entire voting population at a poll or not. These include:

* The Taku River Tlingit (conveniently their reserve actually is covered by the polling boundary)
* The Prophet River Nation
* The Fort Nelson Nation
* Tsay Keh Dene
* The Saulteau First Nations
* The West Moberly First Nations
* The Blueberry River First Nations
* The Doig River Nations
* The Halfway River Nations
* Nadleh Whuten
* The Stellat'en First Nation

and in a particularly interesting twist, it appears the poll compromising the Wet'suwet'en Nation, site of the famous rail-blocking dispute over the development of pipelines, went Conservative by a solid 52%. This matches up with the elected councilors taking a more pro-pipeline position as opposed to the hereditary chiefs, though if it's actually true then I'm a bit surprised that nobody actually bothered to check.

That's just in the three northernmost ridings so presumably there are plenty more where that came from. I thought the coastal reserves were monolithically NDP when they went 70-80% NDP but a few of the interior polls that covered reserves (specifically in Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies)  somehow went 95% (!!!) Tory so I wouldn't be surprised if some of the Prairie reserves had similarly North Korean levels of single party support.

If anyone wants to double check feel free. My suspicion is that the reason you aren't aware of Conservative voting reserves (or "unceded villages", it gets complicated in BC) is because it isn't really in anyone's interest to bring them up; obviously the Liberals and NDP would prefer to monopolize the non-white vote by branding the Tories as the Racist White Guy Party while the Tories themselves are utterly inept on Indian Affairs and have only ever won those votes on the basis of economic policy, so they aren't likely to actually take advantage. I noticed that the coastal, heavily NDP voting descriptions tended to focus more on talking about "preservation" while the ones in Tory territory spent more space talking about economic development.

Maybe the most extreme example of this are the Salteau, whose description reads more like that of a corporation than of a reserve:

Summary of Economic Development Agreements, Community Businesses and Joint Ventures

Saulteau is involved in a variety of ventures which include: Twin Sisters Native Plant Nursery, 6 Nations Ventures, 3 Nations Ventures, 4ever green resources LP, Saulteau Safety and Secutity, Saulteau Camp Services, Saulteau Communications, and Little Prairie Community Forest. Saulteau also receives a variety of benefits from joint-ventures and partnerships with companies such as: Britco-Airamark, Bailey Helicopters, North Cariboo Air, Ruskin Construction, FMI Electrical Installations, Tetratec EVA, MTS Trucking, Jake’s Construction and KMC

Economic Development Background

Saulteau is currently reviewing the structure of its economic development program, businesses and joint-ventures. Saulteau is involved in a variety of enterprises that provide jobs and benefits to the community. Chief and Council will consider recommendations to restructure the Economic Development department and potentially create a ‘stand-alone’ economic development corporation with an independent Board of Directors that would manage and operate all of Saulteau’s business interests.

Using the Interactive map you provided, I looked up "Taku River Tlingit", which takes me to the "Unnamed 10" reserve (pop. 28) outside of Atlin. The poll that covers the reserve did go Conservative, but it also includes the community of Atlin (pop. 241) which is majority White.

Interestingly Atlin used to be a comically overrepresented provincial riding. While I haven't been able to find the exact boundaries of the riding or demographic data Wikipedia claims the riding was "dominated" by FN voters. This is backed up by the fact that the NDP Nisga'a MLA switching over to the SoCreds caused the vote to go from 41% NDP 15% SoCred to a 55% SoCred 28% NDP over a single election. I doubt you could get a swing like that without a majority (or at least a plurality) of FN voters

Is there any demographic data on the town of Atlin? The closest I found was a regional health report but unfortunately it didn't mention the proportion of whites to natives.

[beesley]

Interestingly Atlin used to be a comically overrepresented provincial riding. While I haven't been able to find the exact boundaries of the riding or demographic data Wikipedia claims the riding was "dominated" by FN voters. This is backed up by the fact that the NDP Nisga'a MLA switching over to the SoCreds caused the vote to go from 41% NDP 15% SoCred to a 55% SoCred 28% NDP over a single election. I doubt you could get a swing like that without a majority (or at least a plurality) of FN voters

Is there any demographic data on the town of Atlin? The closest I found was a regional health report but unfortunately it didn't mention the proportion of whites to natives.

What a charming place. Would love to go there now I've seen it, but the riding which it is in must be hard to represent.

A quick search leads me to find that Atlin is the largest settlement in the Stikine census region - here is the data for the whole region. No town-level data is published. Quite a substantial aboriginal population, but hard to tell whether it's in Atlin or elsewhere - though I believe a lot of it is.

https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/details/Page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=CSD&Code1=5957022&Geo2=PR&Code2=59&SearchText=Atlin&SearchType=Contains&SearchPR=01&B1=All&type=0#map-popup

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/nationalpost/status/1368316163667746816

What are the chances of O’Toole being ousted until the end of the year? From what I understood from the article, he went from "a True Blue" conservative to a more moderate path, near "Red Tory". And that many in the party think he should be more tough on Trudeau about the pandemic fight and other policies.

I got a sense of deja-vu while reading the article, to be honest.

[DC Al Fine]

Turfing a leader in a minority government (in a pandemic!) would take ... a lot.

[2952-0-0]

Erin O'Toole's job is safe. But the drip-drip stories of infighting will damage the party's reputation in the eyes of Tom and Susan from Oakville, and hurt the party's ability to do the dirty work of creating policy and communicating with the public.

[mileslunn]

My view is Tories will be in opposition for some time.  O'Toole loses and moderates claim he was too right wing while base claims he was not right wing enough.  Lewis or someone further right chosen as next leader and faces an even bigger drubbing.  Depending on whether they learn or not maybe next election, but I am quite convinced party will not form government in next decade.  Reality is Canada is a centre-left country and even the entire spectrum of right is only around 30-40% of population, but much like left great variance and so it would be like uniting Liberals, NDP, and Greens.  Probably wouldn't be very cohesive but because left outnumbers right, right has no choice but to form a marriage of convenience.  Because PC and Reform wing are quite different and really don't belong under same banner except common enemy, that is why I think party is having so many difficulties.

Harper won due to combination of very weak Liberal leaders and was also a skilled tactician at keeping factions together but few have those skill sets.  And even he I don't think could win today as base is even more right wing than a decade ago while median voter has moved left so not sure gap can be bridged.  Realistically Tories need base to become less right wing and median voter to move right to have a shot and when that happens is anyone's guess.

[beesley]

Scott Duvall, NDP MP for Hamilton Mountain, will retire. A shame as he was for sure one of the better MPs in Parliament.

[King of Kensington]

Scott Duvall, NDP MP for Hamilton Mountain, will retire. A shame as he was for sure one of the better MPs in Parliament.

Very much from the "traditional" blue collar side of the party.  In spite of (some) promising polling numbers, I wouldn't be so confident it's safe for the NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

I'd be curious to see a poll by poll breakdown of the riding but while the NDP probably dominates most reserves I'm pretty confident that the ones that they don't (again, west of Manitoba) are far more likely to go Conservative than Liberal.

http://www.election-atlas.ca/fed/
http://www.election-atlas.ca/bc/

Much appreciated! I wish the overlays had better labeling though, it's a bit of a hassle to correlate the polling with the map of reserves

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

It's more about Indigenous representation in high-level Cabinet. Only 3 ever were in "real" Cabinet positions (excluding Ministers of State and other junior positions) and none currently.

It probably doesn't help that the ridings with the highest number of reserves typically go NDP and most of the ones that don't (mostly in BC/AB/SA) go Conservative. The Liberals don't exactly have a deep pool of strong candidates to draw from without JWR

Indigenous I think generally go pretty massively either NDP or Liberal but rarely Conservative.  Tories might do somewhat better amongst Metis but doubt they win them, but might as most in Prairies.  Now in Far north, Tories occasionally win indigenous vote like Leona Aguulak of Nunavut but in Far North generally people vote based on candidate not party.

That may be the case for people outside of reserves who identify as Indigenous but I'm talking specifically about the votes of the actual reserves themselves. West of Manitoba the Liberals have even less traction than the Tories.

For example, take a look at Skeena-Bulkley Valley. It's represented provincially by a Liberal councillor from one of the pro-pipeline nations and sits at the center of the whole controversy but the federal Liberals barely broke double digits there last election.

I'd be curious to see a poll by poll breakdown of the riding but while the NDP probably dominates most reserves I'm pretty confident that the ones that they don't (again, west of Manitoba) are far more likely to go Conservative than Liberal.

I'm not aware of a single reserve in the country (that isn't plurality White, yes they exist) that voted Conservative...

After far too much crossreferencing it appears at least a few northern BC reserves and villages went Conservative, albeit it isn't always obvious whether they actually compose the entire voting population at a poll or not. These include:

* The Taku River Tlingit (conveniently their reserve actually is covered by the polling boundary)
* The Prophet River Nation
* The Fort Nelson Nation
* Tsay Keh Dene
* The Saulteau First Nations
* The West Moberly First Nations
* The Blueberry River First Nations
* The Doig River Nations
* The Halfway River Nations
* Nadleh Whuten
* The Stellat'en First Nation

and in a particularly interesting twist, it appears the poll compromising the Wet'suwet'en Nation, site of the famous rail-blocking dispute over the development of pipelines, went Conservative by a solid 52%. This matches up with the elected councilors taking a more pro-pipeline position as opposed to the hereditary chiefs, though if it's actually true then I'm a bit surprised that nobody actually bothered to check.

That's just in the three northernmost ridings so presumably there are plenty more where that came from. I thought the coastal reserves were monolithically NDP when they went 70-80% NDP but a few of the interior polls that covered reserves (specifically in Prince George--Peace River--Northern Rockies)  somehow went 95% (!!!) Tory so I wouldn't be surprised if some of the Prairie reserves had similarly North Korean levels of single party support.

If anyone wants to double check feel free. My suspicion is that the reason you aren't aware of Conservative voting reserves (or "unceded villages", it gets complicated in BC) is because it isn't really in anyone's interest to bring them up; obviously the Liberals and NDP would prefer to monopolize the non-white vote by branding the Tories as the Racist White Guy Party while the Tories themselves are utterly inept on Indian Affairs and have only ever won those votes on the basis of economic policy, so they aren't likely to actually take advantage. I noticed that the coastal, heavily NDP voting descriptions tended to focus more on talking about "preservation" while the ones in Tory territory spent more space talking about economic development.

Maybe the most extreme example of this are the Salteau, whose description reads more like that of a corporation than of a reserve:

Summary of Economic Development Agreements, Community Businesses and Joint Ventures

Saulteau is involved in a variety of ventures which include: Twin Sisters Native Plant Nursery, 6 Nations Ventures, 3 Nations Ventures, 4ever green resources LP, Saulteau Safety and Secutity, Saulteau Camp Services, Saulteau Communications, and Little Prairie Community Forest. Saulteau also receives a variety of benefits from joint-ventures and partnerships with companies such as: Britco-Airamark, Bailey Helicopters, North Cariboo Air, Ruskin Construction, FMI Electrical Installations, Tetratec EVA, MTS Trucking, Jake’s Construction and KMC

Economic Development Background

Saulteau is currently reviewing the structure of its economic development program, businesses and joint-ventures. Saulteau is involved in a variety of enterprises that provide jobs and benefits to the community. Chief and Council will consider recommendations to restructure the Economic Development department and potentially create a ‘stand-alone’ economic development corporation with an independent Board of Directors that would manage and operate all of Saulteau’s business interests.

Using the Interactive map you provided, I looked up "Taku River Tlingit", which takes me to the "Unnamed 10" reserve (pop. 28) outside of Atlin. The poll that covers the reserve did go Conservative, but it also includes the community of Atlin (pop. 241) which is majority White.

Interestingly Atlin used to be a comically overrepresented provincial riding. While I haven't been able to find the exact boundaries of the riding or demographic data Wikipedia claims the riding was "dominated" by FN voters. This is backed up by the fact that the NDP Nisga'a MLA switching over to the SoCreds caused the vote to go from 41% NDP 15% SoCred to a 55% SoCred 28% NDP over a single election. I doubt you could get a swing like that without a majority (or at least a plurality) of FN voters

Is there any demographic data on the town of Atlin? The closest I found was a regional health report but unfortunately it didn't mention the proportion of whites to natives.

The Election Atlas with the poll maps also has riding maps going back decades, I suggest you explore that website more. You'll find Atlin there.

You should also aquatint yourself with Stat Can's geosearch website (https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/geo/geosearch-georecherche/index-eng.cfm) Searching for Atlin and zooming in, you can select it's Dissemination Area to find its demographics (https://www12.statcan.gc.ca/census-recensement/2016/dp-pd/prof/details/page.cfm?Lang=E&Geo1=DA&Code1=59570219&Geo2=PR&Code2=01&Data=Count&SearchText=59570219&SearchType=Begins&SearchPR=01&B1=All&Custom=&TABID=3)

[beesley]

Good news for boring people like me, a redistricting (or redistribution, as you call it) application is in the works:

https://twitter.com/electionatlasCA/status/1367146643787767817

[DC Al Fine]

Woohoo!

[beesley]

Some new polls from Narrative Research:

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1369360523444318210?s=20

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1369361404235513856?s=20

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1369365482625785859?s=20

So Dennis King is doing very well, Rankin seems to have carried over McNeil's ratings, at least for now, and Higgs' majority honeymoon is over.

[DC Al Fine]

Good timing for Rankin. We're due for an election this spring (though I suspect he'll delay until the fall)

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/MercedesGlobal/status/1369752903687225346

Story around Vance is changing. Suspect Saijan may not be long for the frontbench.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/CBCAlerts/status/1370471127898857475?s=19