Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[StateBoiler]

You don't need to bridge the divide. Just let the PC-equivalent run a center right UK Tory style campaign that runs on a carbon tax and beating down SoCons for those key upper middle class urban/suburban votes while the Reform-equivalent runs with all the policies that let it dominate the Prairies and that (especially recently) provided inroads in postindustrial ex-NDP regions like Essex and Oshawa.

As it stands a single Tory leader is forced to choose between their base and growth, whereas two Tory leaders could get both. If anything being divided is a good thing, since that makes it harder for Trudeau to do his usual trick of painting the Tories as Republicans to alienate centrist suburbanites.

Also, of course Trudeau is at his peak when he's paying a huge portion of the population to stay home. The same trick worked quite a while for Bolsonaro. But the real question is what happens to his popularity when the bill comes due, either in the form of austerity and service cuts when the BoC raises rates or inflation if it doesn't. I've seen zero explanations for how we're going to handle the debt (let alone provincial debt) when real rates aren't negative.

I'm sure Trudeau will capitalize by holding an election sooner rather than later though, ideally by baiting the other parties into forcing it somehow.

The PCs and Reform/Alliance merged *because* the alternative was another decade of Liberal majorities with ~35% of the popular vote. More specifically, the PCs never recovered from the shocks of Mulroney's last years, and were a spent force. It's possible that, given another decade, the Alliance Party could have itself evolved into a big-tent centre-right party, but we'll never know.

There would certainly be room for a moderate, centre-right party. Unfortunately, the First Past The Post system makes it unviable.

That was with both parties stepping on each others toes, though. By a brief scan of the '93 results it looks like the PCs and Reform combined had enough votes to win several dozen ridings that they otherwise would have lost, particularly in BC, SK, ON and NB. Strategic primaries/dropping out (probably) wouldn't have been enough in '93 but in ['97 there were even more split ridings](http://esm.ubc.ca/CA97/results.html).

The PCs weren't what they used to be but they were hardly dead in the water considering Charest managed to get them from 2 to 20 seats.

20 seats. Wow, congrats, they're a smaller right-wing version of the NDP.

I liked the Boys in Short Pants' take on the PC's in the aftermath of Peter Mackay losing the Conservative leadership race to Erin O'Toole: not a majority of the Conservative Party, historically paid lip service to conservativism but were Grit-ish as far as selling out their constituencies in the end compared to Reform/Alliance who were significantly more genuine (a point made by the NDP member of the podcast), and that the "PC section of the party" are heavily overrepresented in national media.

[mileslunn]

Alberta MLA Todd Loewen has resigned as UCP Caucus Chair and issued an open letter calling on Premier Jason Kenney to resign. It would appear that the UCP caucus revolt against Kenney is gaining more momentum.

I don't see Kenney being premier in 2 years time.  Most likely party dumps him as he has alienated both right flank and moderates or if he does manage to stay on, voters defeat him in 2023.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Most likely but will be interesting to see how close.  I do think there is an outside chance Liberals pull off an upset, but unlikely.

Very, very unlikely, but you're right, the margins may be the most interesting part. Of course, there could just be a general election by the time the byelection is set to happen.

[beesley]

Loewen's resignation letter is fairly scathing.

[Real Texan Politics]

This the right place to post this?

[Njall]

*snip*

Loewen's resignation letter is fairly scathing.

Another MLA, Dave Hanson (Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul), posted on social media this morning echoing Loewen’s comments. Both are former Wildrose MLAs for whatever it’s worth. They were also both signatories to the recent(ish) letter opposing more covid restrictions. And they both endorsed Brian Jean back in the UCP leadership race.

[mileslunn]

*snip*

Loewen's resignation letter is fairly scathing.

Another MLA, Dave Hanson (Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul), posted on social media this morning echoing Loewen’s comments. Both are former Wildrose MLAs for whatever it’s worth. They were also both signatories to the recent(ish) letter opposing more covid restrictions. And they both endorsed Brian Jean back in the UCP leadership race.

Anti-lockdown types very noisy in Alberta, but I don't believe they are a majority.  In some ways pandemic has been terrible for parties on right as base opposes lockdowns but key swing voters support them whereas for progressive parties they are largely united on it.  Its why I think you will at provincial level see a progressive wave sweep the country dumping conservative premiers will replacing them with progressive ones.

[Njall]

Update: After an emergency caucus meeting, the UCP caucus voted to expel MLA Loewen, as well as longtime thorn in Kenney’s side MLA Drew Barnes (who, as a fun fact, is the last MLA from the Wildrose’s 2012 wave(-ish) remaining in the Leg) from caucus. The vote was not by secret ballot; the members had to send their votes to the UCP Assistant Deputy Speaker.

To add to the hilarity, someone was leaking live updates to Derek Fildebrandt’s Western Standard throughout the meeting.

[mileslunn]

Update: After an emergency caucus meeting, the UCP caucus voted to expel MLA Loewen, as well as longtime thorn in Kenney’s side MLA Drew Barnes (who, as a fun fact, is the last MLA from the Wildrose’s 2012 wave(-ish) remaining in the Leg) from caucus. The vote was not by secret ballot; the members had to send their votes to the UCP Assistant Deputy Speaker.

To add to the hilarity, someone was leaking live updates to Derek Fildebrandt’s Western Standard throughout the meeting.

Right move, but doubt this will end the divisions.  Notley must be happy as party is imploding.  NDP despite having a very weak bench in 2015 (many were paper candidates that never expected to win) showed far better political judgement, discipline, and unity than UCP are.  And I suspect in 2023 quality of candidates since they have shown they can win will be a lot better than in 2015.

Off course things can change, but at this point I don't see any scenario where Kenney is still premier in 2 years.  One of three things happens

1.  He resigns (seems unlikely but embarrassment of losing to Notley might make him out of pride).
2.  Party dumps him - I see this as most likely.  If he is still trailing by double digits by year's end, party dumps him.

3.  He loses to Notley - I think Notley will win next election no matter who is UCP leader but it goes from favoured to heavily favoured if Kenney is UCP leader.  At least with a different leader they have a somewhat better chance of recovering. 

I think many are misreading Alberta electorate.  While different in many ways, Alberta is seeing similar shift to what Colorado is seeing which is once reliably conservative, now reliably progressive and I see Alberta going that way.  I don't see Trudeau winning many seats here and especially not Singh, but in 2025 if Chrystia Freeland is Liberal leader, I would not be shocked if she wins a whole bunch of urban seats in Alberta.  I could even see her running there as a way to reach out (she was born in Alberta).

[DC Al Fine]

A Federal Court judge has dismissed the CBC's lawsuit against the Tories which alleged 'copyright violation' for using the broadcaster's news footage in an election ad.

Not a great look for CBC upper management. That lawsuit was ridiculous on its face and served to bolster Tory allegations of media bias. Meanwhile, literally every other party routinely makes use of CBC footage in their comms without worrying about being dragged into court.

[beesley]

I was surprised in 2019 at how Calgary-heavy the cabinet was, but I guess it makes all the more sense now - Kenney didn't want to be surrounded by them - he only kept them as critics for unity's sake which was no longer necessary after he won his own mandate. Regardless, these are not the developments you'd see from a strong leader.

[Geoffrey Howe]

This is slightly off topic, but are the BC Liberals the centre right party there? And do they get Tory support?

(On a side note, what is the name of the ultra-safe Liberal riding in west Vancouver? It looks like it went NDP in the recent provincial election.)

[mileslunn]

This is slightly off topic, but are the BC Liberals the centre right party there? And do they get Tory support?

(On a side note, what is the name of the ultra-safe Liberal riding in west Vancouver? It looks like it went NDP in the recent provincial election.)

BC Liberals are more like Tories than federal Liberals.  Up until 2020, it was a mix, but more of their supporters Conservatives than Liberals although by 2020 most federal Liberal support had swung over to NDP.  West Vancouver-Capilano is the ultra safe one you are talking about and it stayed BC Liberal.  NDP did win the two North Vancouver ones and there North Vancouver-Lonsdale is a swing while North Vancouver-Seymour normally a safe BC Liberal one, but not as lopsided as West Vancouver-Capilano.

[Geoffrey Howe]

This is slightly off topic, but are the BC Liberals the centre right party there? And do they get Tory support?

(On a side note, what is the name of the ultra-safe Liberal riding in west Vancouver? It looks like it went NDP in the recent provincial election.)

BC Liberals are more like Tories than federal Liberals.  Up until 2020, it was a mix, but more of their supporters Conservatives than Liberals although by 2020 most federal Liberal support had swung over to NDP.  West Vancouver-Capilano is the ultra safe one you are talking about and it stayed BC Liberal.  NDP did win the two North Vancouver ones and there North Vancouver-Lonsdale is a swing while North Vancouver-Seymour normally a safe BC Liberal one, but not as lopsided as West Vancouver-Capilano.

I was thinking ultra-Liberal federally (it might be Vancouver Quadra?).

[mileslunn]

This is slightly off topic, but are the BC Liberals the centre right party there? And do they get Tory support?

(On a side note, what is the name of the ultra-safe Liberal riding in west Vancouver? It looks like it went NDP in the recent provincial election.)

BC Liberals are more like Tories than federal Liberals.  Up until 2020, it was a mix, but more of their supporters Conservatives than Liberals although by 2020 most federal Liberal support had swung over to NDP.  West Vancouver-Capilano is the ultra safe one you are talking about and it stayed BC Liberal.  NDP did win the two North Vancouver ones and there North Vancouver-Lonsdale is a swing while North Vancouver-Seymour normally a safe BC Liberal one, but not as lopsided as West Vancouver-Capilano.

I was thinking ultra-Liberal federally (it might be Vancouver Quadra?).

Vancouver-Quadra federally is split in two provincial ridings.  Yes Vancouver-Quadra is a super safe Liberal and stayed Liberal even in 2011 disaster.  Provincially split between Vancouver-Point Grey which used to go BC Liberal but now solidly NDP and Vancouver-Quilchena which is still solidly BC Liberal.

[Estrella]

This is slightly off topic, but are the BC Liberals the centre right party there? And do they get Tory support?

(On a side note, what is the name of the ultra-safe Liberal riding in west Vancouver? It looks like it went NDP in the recent provincial election.)

BC Liberals are more like Tories than federal Liberals.  Up until 2020, it was a mix, but more of their supporters Conservatives than Liberals although by 2020 most federal Liberal support had swung over to NDP.  West Vancouver-Capilano is the ultra safe one you are talking about and it stayed BC Liberal.  NDP did win the two North Vancouver ones and there North Vancouver-Lonsdale is a swing while North Vancouver-Seymour normally a safe BC Liberal one, but not as lopsided as West Vancouver-Capilano.

I was thinking ultra-Liberal federally (it might be Vancouver Quadra?).

Vancouver Quadra has a pretty interesting history. It was won by PCs in 1980 when Liberals won a majority nationally but got absolutely pasted in Western Canada (two seats and something like 25% of the vote west of Ontario). In 1984, the Liberal candidate was, of all people, the incumbent PM John Turner and his prestige carried him to victory by quite a margin, despite Liberals' landslide defeat nationally and even worse results in the West (only 16% of the vote in BC!).

[mileslunn]

For people's thoughts on direction of country wondering what people think on following below:

1.  Notley wins in Alberta even against a united right.
2.  Liberals in 2025 under Freeland make a big breakthrough in Alberta (she is originally from there)
3.  NDP beats Tories in votes in next election.
4.  Tories get under 25% of the popular vote
5.  Liberals remain in government continuously past 2030

Any thoughts on these?  I think each has a reasonable chance at happening although #1 probably most likely, others more questionable but still possible.

[King of Kensington]

BC Liberals are like the Australian Liberals. 

[LabourJersey]

BC Liberals are like the Australian Liberals. 

why is this the case though? And why are BC liberals such an anomaly--it doesn't seem like any provincial Tory or provincial Liberal party in other provinces are as out-of-sync with their national counterparts as the BC liberals

[mileslunn]

BC Liberals are like the Australian Liberals. 

Many liberal parties in Europe are similar to BC Liberals like VVD in Netherlands, Venstre in Denmark and several others.  In many ways liberalism in North America is more an anomaly as they are watered down social democrats.  Believe in same ideas of social democrats, but a lot more cautious and willing to accept much less.

[mileslunn]

BC Liberals are like the Australian Liberals. 

why is this the case though? And why are BC liberals such an anomaly--it doesn't seem like any provincial Tory or provincial Liberal party in other provinces are as out-of-sync with their national counterparts as the BC liberals

It is more due to history.  Up until 1991, you had NDP on left while Social Credit was the pro free enterprise coalition like BC Liberals today.  By 1991 people were tired of the scandal plagued Social Credit, but many of their voters weren't comfortable going over to NDP.  Gordon Wilson after his one liner in the debate led to surge in support for Liberals who then were like federal Liberals.  In that election BC Liberals pulled ahead of the Social Credit.  Many Social Credit members quit the party after this seeing it was dead and moved over to BC Liberals.  Gordon Wilson was dumped as leader in 1993 and Gordon Campbell took over and it more or less took the same position former Social Credit did.  Had networks not let Gordon Wilson into debate as original plan, Social Credit probably would have formed official opposition and eventually come back so it was more a sequence of events that led to this unique arrangement.  Sask Liberals wanted to do same, but in end not all on board so the right of centre ones joined with the PCs to form Saskatchewan Party.

[King of Kensington]

Vancouver-Quadra federally is split in two provincial ridings.  Yes Vancouver-Quadra is a super safe Liberal and stayed Liberal even in 2011 disaster.  Provincially split between Vancouver-Point Grey which used to go BC Liberal but now solidly NDP and Vancouver-Quilchena which is still solidly BC Liberal.

Van Quadra is very much a "Brahmin Liberal" riding, like Don Valley West, St. Paul's, University-Rosedale and Westmount.

[Geoffrey Howe]

This is slightly off topic, but are the BC Liberals the centre right party there? And do they get Tory support?

(On a side note, what is the name of the ultra-safe Liberal riding in west Vancouver? It looks like it went NDP in the recent provincial election.)

BC Liberals are more like Tories than federal Liberals.  Up until 2020, it was a mix, but more of their supporters Conservatives than Liberals although by 2020 most federal Liberal support had swung over to NDP.  West Vancouver-Capilano is the ultra safe one you are talking about and it stayed BC Liberal.  NDP did win the two North Vancouver ones and there North Vancouver-Lonsdale is a swing while North Vancouver-Seymour normally a safe BC Liberal one, but not as lopsided as West Vancouver-Capilano.

I was thinking ultra-Liberal federally (it might be Vancouver Quadra?).

Vancouver-Quadra federally is split in two provincial ridings.  Yes Vancouver-Quadra is a super safe Liberal and stayed Liberal even in 2011 disaster.  Provincially split between Vancouver-Point Grey which used to go BC Liberal but now solidly NDP and Vancouver-Quilchena which is still solidly BC Liberal.

Right, so I assume Quilchena is wealthier?

[mileslunn]

This is slightly off topic, but are the BC Liberals the centre right party there? And do they get Tory support?

(On a side note, what is the name of the ultra-safe Liberal riding in west Vancouver? It looks like it went NDP in the recent provincial election.)

BC Liberals are more like Tories than federal Liberals.  Up until 2020, it was a mix, but more of their supporters Conservatives than Liberals although by 2020 most federal Liberal support had swung over to NDP.  West Vancouver-Capilano is the ultra safe one you are talking about and it stayed BC Liberal.  NDP did win the two North Vancouver ones and there North Vancouver-Lonsdale is a swing while North Vancouver-Seymour normally a safe BC Liberal one, but not as lopsided as West Vancouver-Capilano.

I was thinking ultra-Liberal federally (it might be Vancouver Quadra?).

Vancouver-Quadra federally is split in two provincial ridings.  Yes Vancouver-Quadra is a super safe Liberal and stayed Liberal even in 2011 disaster.  Provincially split between Vancouver-Point Grey which used to go BC Liberal but now solidly NDP and Vancouver-Quilchena which is still solidly BC Liberal.

Right, so I assume Quilchena is wealthier?

Yes and also older.  Mostly boomers while Point Grey has more rentals, but also a lot more millennials and Gen Xers.  Boomers remember 90s quite well so tend to have a strong reluctance to vote NDP while millennials don't but at same time most likely negatively impacted by high cost of living that happened under BC Liberals.

[CumbrianLefty]

Social Credit, then Liberals - why have the Tories not been the main rightist force in BC at state level?