Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Hatman 🍁]

A lot of commonalities sure, but one respect in which UK Labour is better off is that a lot of its policy programme is in itself quite popular (which is why our Tories have continually cherry picked ideas from it, especially since 2016) It doesn't look like the Canadian Tories have even that straw right now.

(and another recent poll showed them doing worse, and the NDP better, than the one cited above)

That was a Leger poll I believe. They have been consistently giving the NDP numbers in the low 20s for a while now. They're a pretty respected pollster, but I have a hard time believing those numbers. In contrast, Mainstreet's recent poll had the NDP at 10%! Also very much an outlier.  There is a huge modal gap in terms of NDP numbers among the pollsters. Online polling has the NDP doing quite well, while IVR polling shows the opposite. Same thing happened in the last election. Working for a firm that uses IVR, our numbers always depress me. If the NDP is at 15, it's a good day.

[cp]

A lot of commonalities sure, but one respect in which UK Labour is better off is that a lot of its policy programme is in itself quite popular (which is why our Tories have continually cherry picked ideas from it, especially since 2016) It doesn't look like the Canadian Tories have even that straw right now.

(and another recent poll showed them doing worse, and the NDP better, than the one cited above)

I see what you're getting at, but I think the picture is more complex than that. The Canadian Tories are out of step with the public on fiscal matters right now, but their policies and rhetoric on immigration are probably much closer to the median voter than the Liberals' are. Same goes with certain aspects of foreign policy (China, mainly), and matters of federal/provincial sovereignty in Québec and the Prairies.

Also worth noting how much Labour has mimicked Tory policies on crime and immigration for much of the past 30 years, and have doubled down on doing so in the past few months, to its considerable discredit.

[mileslunn]

National Post pleads for unity:

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/np-view-conservatives-must-unite-behind-erin-otoole-if-they-are-to-defeat-trudeau

Its been a decade since Tories federally last won an election and it seems since then base has become more right wing while median voter more left wing so I believe the gap between two has become so large its not possible to appeal to both.  O'Toole is sort of all over map as trying to appeal to both but finding not appealing to either.  When Harper was leader, appealing to both was tough, but a skilled leader could do it.  Harper did it by staying close to centre on big issues but going right on peripheral ones to fire up base and hope public wouldn't care.  That worked then, but today median voter is now on left not dead centre while base has gone from right to even further right.

Expanding on what you said, Harper also benefited from an utterly dysfunctional and balkanized Liberal Party, while today's Liberal Party is a well-oiled machine with remarkable internal unity. People still doubt Trudeau's leadership chops, but the man has been able to run a tight ship without having to muzzle his caucus nearly to the extent that Harper did. All things considered, the Liberals look like the governing party, and that goes a long way in convincing LPC-CPC swing voters.

The CPC simply has nowhere to go, and so the right wing of the party is gaining relative influence. Perhaps things would be different without the pandemic, but as of right now, the Liberals have all the ingredients they need: their policies remain around the median of Canadian public opinion, government approval is strong, there is no infighting whatsoever, and scandals haven't gotten the better of them (yet). The CPC is therefore cornered into being the party of ideological conservatives, and Canada's just not the sort of country you can win with ideology alone.

Agreed, I see Conservatives in long term decline and while I don't want to say never, I don't see Tories forming government anytime soon.  I also think pandemic may be pushing a big shift left and Liberals have moved left with public while Tories are not and probably cannot without another split.

I'm loathe to do this, as I think it's usually just naive two-pint praxis, but it's remarkable how the Canadian Tories' and UK Labour's problems mirror each other right now:

- A decade out of power
- Split between an ideologically inspired grassroots and a compromise-for-power-at-all-costs elite which sneers at said grassroots with palpable contempt
- Facing an electorate that's moving decisively away from both factions' preferred policy programmes
- Ostracized/pathologized/condescended to by mainstream news/entertainment outlets
- Led by a milquetoast in pragmatists' clothing
- Opposed by a governing party/leader that is inexplicably resilient and/or tolerated

I'm not much more optimistic about Labour's chances than mileslunn is about the Canadian Tories'.

Both in bad shape, but Labour at least has somewhat easier plausibility of winning.  Neither can realistically get a majority, but Labour in UK just has to deny the Tories a majority by more than 10 seats (so cannot form with unionist party) and they likely get to form government.  Tories in Canada have to actually win a majority.

I think a lot feel Labour is too far to left but I don't see same loathing towards them as Tories in Canada.  Most Canadians hate the Tories with a passion and are absolutely terrified at the prospect of them ever forming government again.  Median Canadian voter is more left wing than median British so I think in past Tories could win, but now I think median has shifted enough left they are no longer electable.  In fact its arguable unlike a decade ago that NDP is closer to median voter than Tories are although Liberals closest.  Just many NDP types vote Liberal to keep Tories out while Tories have a base around 25% but their appeal beyond that limited and shrinking.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories "have to" win a majority? Tell that to Stephen Harper in the 2000s. If the Tories get the most seats, they most likely will form a minority government. Unless the Liberals have grown a spine in the last 15 years.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

I'd argue a lot of Trudeau's power comes more from incumbency than Canada's leftward lean. Just look at the BC or Ontario Liberals; they won repeated elections while being widely despised for corruption and ineptitude and survived even when the Federal Liberals were getting pummeled in their provinces. Higgs hasn't had much issue with reelection despite running a province that Trudeau literally swept in 2015 and Ford is (at least currently) looking likely to cruise to a fairly safe reelection.

It seems like Canadians will typically reelect incumbents regardless of partisan affiliation or ideology unless they really screw up, at which point even an oaf like Doug Ford can win a nominally Liberal province like Ontario. Trudeau's survived on the basis that his scandals haven't really impacted regular people that much and so far he's managed to successfully pass off blame for the ones that have. If the housing bubble bursts or severe inflation sets in then even a literal tool like O'Toole would have no problem Wynne-ing against Trudeau, though if the NDP nominated a decent leader they could conceivably fill the void.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'd argue a lot of Trudeau's power comes more from incumbency than Canada's leftward lean. Just look at the BC or Ontario Liberals; they won repeated elections while being widely despised for corruption and ineptitude and survived even when the Federal Liberals were getting pummeled in their provinces. Higgs hasn't had much issue with reelection despite running a province that Trudeau literally swept in 2015 and Ford is (at least currently) looking likely to cruise to a fairly safe reelection.

It seems like Canadians will typically reelect incumbents regardless of partisan affiliation or ideology unless they really screw up, at which point even an oaf like Doug Ford can win a nominally Liberal province like Ontario. Trudeau's survived on the basis that his scandals haven't really impacted regular people that much and so far he's managed to successfully pass off blame for the ones that have. If the housing bubble bursts or severe inflation sets in then even a literal tool like O'Toole would have no problem Wynne-ing against Trudeau, though if the NDP nominated a decent leader they could conceivably fill the void.

The Ontario Progressive Conservatives in the McGuinty years repeatedly 'pulled defeat from the jaws of victory.'

The British Columbia Liberals made a lot of unpopular decisions from 2001-2005 but after a single term out of office, the NDP were still in no position to return to power, and the Liberal policies had a good deal of popularity during this hangover of the 'neoliberal' economic period.  It would be a mistake to underestimate how many people agreed with the policies of the B.C Liberals or the Harris Conservatives from 1995-1999, for instance.  

Still, those policies did allow the NDP to return to 42% of the vote and 33 seats in 2005 after largely been given up for dead in 2001.  Most  pundits and the Liberal Party expected the NDP to win, I believe, only around 15-20 seats.  That better than expected showing by the NDP surprised the Liberals, and the good economic times allowed them to govern more like liberals, and they seemed to be actually a pretty popular government from 2005-2009.  

[cp]

[snip]

Both in bad shape, but Labour at least has somewhat easier plausibility of winning.  Neither can realistically get a majority, but Labour in UK just has to deny the Tories a majority by more than 10 seats (so cannot form with unionist party) and they likely get to form government.  Tories in Canada have to actually win a majority.

I think a lot feel Labour is too far to left but I don't see same loathing towards them as Tories in Canada.  Most Canadians hate the Tories with a passion and are absolutely terrified at the prospect of them ever forming government again. Median Canadian voter is more left wing than median British so I think in past Tories could win, but now I think median has shifted enough left they are no longer electable.  In fact its arguable unlike a decade ago that NDP is closer to median voter than Tories are although Liberals closest.  Just many NDP types vote Liberal to keep Tories out while Tories have a base around 25% but their appeal beyond that limited and shrinking.

I'll grant Labour has a higher floor than the Canadian Tories, around 30% barring some SDP-style split. But the level of contempt shown for the Labour Party here is just as strong as the passionate hatred of the Canadian Tories. It's just expressed differently, more as a sneering condescension. Also, notably, a lot of that sneer comes from the Labour Party itself, specifically its rightward fringes.

The point about the shift in median voter habits is another parallel between the two parties, albeit a mirrored one. Both parties are facing a shift in median voter attitudes, but for UK Labour it's largely to their benefit: the public's warming to communitarian statist ideas that its left flank has long endorsed. Therein lies the rub, of course, because the party's recent leadership change has put the faction opposed to those ideas back in charge. For the Canadian Tories, they have the inverse problem: a public that's moving away from their activist base's beliefs on social and economic issues, but a recently elected leader that's much more in step with that shift.

[mileslunn]

The Tories "have to" win a majority? Tell that to Stephen Harper in the 2000s. If the Tories get the most seats, they most likely will form a minority government. Unless the Liberals have grown a spine in the last 15 years.

If CPC + BQ perhaps, but if NDP holds balance of power no way.  A lot has changed since then as left is much more adamant about not allowing Tories to form government.  Partly generational as boomers tend to have quite same level of disdain for party as millennials do.  Part of it is boomers have lived through many Tory governments so realize despite fearmongering they aren't that bad even if they disagree with them while millennials much more likely to be truly frightened of Tories.  And NDP leans heavily towards younger voters while Liberals may not per se, but Trudeau clearly is focused on them even if some of the brass in his party prefer more to focus on boomers.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Tories "have to" win a majority? Tell that to Stephen Harper in the 2000s. If the Tories get the most seats, they most likely will form a minority government. Unless the Liberals have grown a spine in the last 15 years.

If CPC + BQ perhaps, but if NDP holds balance of power no way.  A lot has changed since then as left is much more adamant about not allowing Tories to form government.  Partly generational as boomers tend to have quite same level of disdain for party as millennials do.  Part of it is boomers have lived through many Tory governments so realize despite fearmongering they aren't that bad even if they disagree with them while millennials much more likely to be truly frightened of Tories.  And NDP leans heavily towards younger voters while Liberals may not per se, but Trudeau clearly is focused on them even if some of the brass in his party prefer more to focus on boomers.

If CONS > LIB but LIB+NDP > CONS, then you might see something of a constitutional crisis. Many Canadians are too Americanized to grasp the concept that the winner of the most seats does not necessarily mean the party has won. It doesn't help that during election coverage, the media will declare the party with the most seats as the winner. 15 years ago when Harper led a bunch of minority governments, the Liberals were all too happy to just abstain on everything. What's to say they won't do the same this time? I guess it depends what the polls say.

[mileslunn]

The Tories "have to" win a majority? Tell that to Stephen Harper in the 2000s. If the Tories get the most seats, they most likely will form a minority government. Unless the Liberals have grown a spine in the last 15 years.

If CPC + BQ perhaps, but if NDP holds balance of power no way.  A lot has changed since then as left is much more adamant about not allowing Tories to form government.  Partly generational as boomers tend to have quite same level of disdain for party as millennials do.  Part of it is boomers have lived through many Tory governments so realize despite fearmongering they aren't that bad even if they disagree with them while millennials much more likely to be truly frightened of Tories.  And NDP leans heavily towards younger voters while Liberals may not per se, but Trudeau clearly is focused on them even if some of the brass in his party prefer more to focus on boomers.

If CONS > LIB but LIB+NDP > CONS, then you might see something of a constitutional crisis. Many Canadians are too Americanized to grasp the concept that the winner of the most seats does not necessarily mean the party has won. It doesn't help that during election coverage, the media will declare the party with the most seats as the winner. 15 years ago when Harper led a bunch of minority governments, the Liberals were all too happy to just abstain on everything. What's to say they won't do the same this time? I guess it depends what the polls say.

I think BC precedence helps as Horgan didn't win most seats first time around in 2017 although that time was also quite close and BC Liberals had been in power for 16 years so time for change.  But yes 2008 was hugely divisive and backfired, but 2017 in BC was largely a yawn thus why hard to know.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

I think BC precedence helps as Horgan didn't win most seats first time around in 2017 although that time was also quite close and BC Liberals had been in power for 16 years so time for change.  But yes 2008 was hugely divisive and backfired, but 2017 in BC was largely a yawn thus why hard to know.

It might have helped that the 2017 BC election was close to the point of basically being a tie, while in 2008, while Harper did hold a minority, the CPC was way ahead despite being a minority. I know it doesn't matter whether you're one seat off a majority or a hundred, a minority is a minority. But popular legitimacy is important, and a party that finishes second running government just feels illegitimate, even if it isn't.

Also, the BC NDP was in opposition, while the LPC is in government. The governing party winning less seats but hanging on with a backroom deal looks hopelessly desperate and power-hungry to the average voter who doesn't give a toss about the traditions of the Westminster Parliamentary system.

I think a LPC-NDP coalition could keep out a Tory minority if the seat gap between the Tories and Grits was razor-thin like BC 2017, but a decisive CPC minority would last at least one budget. The Bloc throws a wrench in this too, as it looks even more desparate and power-hungry for any federal party to make a deal with a separatist party, not least the Liberal Party which bills itself as the party of national unity

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Trudeau’s Liberals behind or in toss-ups in 13 of 14 rural ridings that reduced them to minority in 2019, say pollsters


A Hill Times article that isn't paywalled?

This is interesting though, despite tons of majority-territory polls for the LPC coming out lately, their vote might be too concentrated in major metro areas, most of which they already hold. There are still enough close major metro seats that are close enough for the LPC to pick up (Aurora, Edmonton Centre, Port Moody, etc) but there's not much real estate there. The Liberals need to get at least some of those rural seats back.

Sloan's riding is a likely pickup though because there's no way he doesn't run as an indy to mess things up for O'Toole. He won't have enough support to win outright, but just enough to split the right and let Mike Bossio (he's the Liberal candidate who unexpectedly won in 2015 and narrowly lost in 2019, is the candidate again) slip back into the seat.

[brucejoel99]

Trudeau’s Liberals behind or in toss-ups in 13 of 14 rural ridings that reduced them to minority in 2019, say pollsters

A Hill Times article that isn't paywalled?

This is interesting though, despite tons of majority-territory polls for the LPC coming out lately, their vote might be too concentrated in major metro areas, most of which they already hold. There are still enough close major metro seats that are close enough for the LPC to pick up (Aurora, Edmonton Centre, Port Moody, etc) but there's not much real estate there. The Liberals need to get at least some of those rural seats back.

Sloan's riding is a likely pickup though because there's no way he doesn't run as an indy to mess things up for O'Toole. He won't have enough support to win outright, but just enough to split the right and let Mike Bossio (he's the Liberal candidate who unexpectedly won in 2015 and narrowly lost in 2019, is the candidate again) slip back into the seat.

If they're toss-ups right now, then they likely remain in Liberal hands once their campaign machine has started rolling.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

If they're toss-ups right now, then they likely remain in Liberal hands once their campaign machine has started rolling.

I partly agree, some of those ridings like Shefford, Riviere-des-Mille-Iles and Kenora could easily go back Liberal if they run as strong a campaign as in 2015 and 2019. Some are complete lost causes though, like the rural NB ridings were an anomaly caused by the immense Trudeaumania (and Harperphobia) out east in 2015, and Lac Saint-Jean was a freak byelection pickup that's safe Bloc for now, and if it falls it will fall to the CPC.

Though I think Trudeau's brand has a high-floor-low-ceiling problem that makes getting over 170 just that much harder. Liberals were the natural governing party because they were a brokerage party through-and-through, able to unite an incredibly diverse coalition of voters. Nowadays, the Liberal brand has become very concentrated in major population centres, along with Atlantic Canada and a few anomalies here and there.

[mileslunn]

I have a feeling this is going to be a huge disaster for Tories.  For Liberals, Trudeau makes lots of stupid mistakes, but he is a celebrity and in a celebrity world, you get lots of fans and people are more forgiving.  Also being on left flank of Liberals an added bonus as right now last thing people want to hear about is austerity or balanced budgets.  Big spending may not be sustainable long term and tough decisions will have to be made at some point, but right now after what people have gone through, no one wants to hear about it.  Maybe in 2 years once pandemic receded people will be ready for a serious conversation on tough choices.

Tories have two principle problems and reason why I would not be shocked if they fall below 100 seats and get under 30%:

1.  Likeability - Erin O'Toole comes across as angry and bitter and in tough times like these that is the worst thing.  Big reason Legault and Horgan have done well while Ford okay but Kenney disastrous is just that.  Legault and Horgan for all their flaws come across as compassionate and caring for people.  Ford does too, but has made some foolish mistakes but at least many view his heart is in the right place.  Kenney comes across as nasty and cold and besides people disagreeing with his policies, people just don't like him personally so not willing to forgive mistakes they might with someone more likeable.  Most people aren't as mad or don't hate Trudeau like Tory base does.

2.  Right wing base - O'Toole is trying to moderate which is the right thing, but base wants to go in opposite direction and as long as party is full of people who have viewpoints well outside the mainstream, people won't touch it with a ten foot pole.  Bad thing for Tories is much of the base will blame O'Toole's loss on being too centrist and thus next leader likely even more right wing there by ensuring Tories lose again in 2025.

Sure surprises can happen, after all in summer of 2005, I said Harper didn't stand a chance and was wrong.  I was very skeptical of Trudeau in 2015 but at least felt he had a shot due to his celebrity appeal but also felt his un-seriousness and gaffe proneness made him vulnerable.  I didn't think Trump would win in 2016 and in 2017 in UK, never thought Corbyn would come as close as he did (I thought results would be more like 2019).  Still O'Toole's personal approval ratings are a lot like Hudak in Ontario and Dion & Ignatieff federally and all of them went on to lose pretty badly.

[Hatman 🍁]

Trudeau’s Liberals behind or in toss-ups in 13 of 14 rural ridings that reduced them to minority in 2019, say pollsters


A Hill Times article that isn't paywalled?

This is interesting though, despite tons of majority-territory polls for the LPC coming out lately, their vote might be too concentrated in major metro areas, most of which they already hold. There are still enough close major metro seats that are close enough for the LPC to pick up (Aurora, Edmonton Centre, Port Moody, etc) but there's not much real estate there. The Liberals need to get at least some of those rural seats back.

Sloan's riding is a likely pickup though because there's no way he doesn't run as an indy to mess things up for O'Toole. He won't have enough support to win outright, but just enough to split the right and let Mike Bossio (he's the Liberal candidate who unexpectedly won in 2015 and narrowly lost in 2019, is the candidate again) slip back into the seat.

Some great analysis in that article by some man donning a hat!

[Hatman 🍁]

If they're toss-ups right now, then they likely remain in Liberal hands once their campaign machine has started rolling.

I partly agree, some of those ridings like Shefford, Riviere-des-Mille-Iles and Kenora could easily go back Liberal if they run as strong a campaign as in 2015 and 2019. Some are complete lost causes though, like the rural NB ridings were an anomaly caused by the immense Trudeaumania (and Harperphobia) out east in 2015, and Lac Saint-Jean was a freak byelection pickup that's safe Bloc for now, and if it falls it will fall to the CPC.

Though I think Trudeau's brand has a high-floor-low-ceiling problem that makes getting over 170 just that much harder. Liberals were the natural governing party because they were a brokerage party through-and-through, able to unite an incredibly diverse coalition of voters. Nowadays, the Liberal brand has become very concentrated in major population centres, along with Atlantic Canada and a few anomalies here and there.

The guy who wrote that article and I were trying to figure out what the list of ridings were, as he was given the number of ridings by the Liberals, but not a full list of ridings. They finally did give him the full list, and it bizarrely included St. John's East (a riding almost entirely located in the St. John's metro area) and Riviere-des-Mille-Iles, which is like what, 1% rural?

Anyway, you'll be reading much more of my #analysis in future articles.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

The guy who wrote that article and I were trying to figure out what the list of ridings were, as he was given the number of ridings by the Liberals, but not a full list of ridings. They finally did give him the full list, and it bizarrely included St. John's East (a riding almost entirely located in the St. John's metro area) and Riviere-des-Mille-Iles, which is like what, 1% rural?

Anyway, you'll be reading much more of my #analysis in future articles.

Lol yeah I was wondering why some of those places were called "rural", a lot of those were suburban and St John's East is mostly urban.

Great #analysis though, I do think a lot of people are a bit too bullish about the Liberals, predicting 200 seats and such. It would take a complete Conservative meltdown for many of those less urban seats to fall.

[King of Kensington]

Liberal and NDP both held conventions this weekend.

This "woke" banker will make a fine candidate for Toronto-St. Paul's, but I don't see him sweeping the country or anything:

https://www.cpac.ca/en/programs/cpac-special/episodes/66359485/

[King of Kensington]

Liberal delegates support UBI, pharmacare and "green new deal" and reject capital gains tax hike and inheritance tax:

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/liberal-universal-basic-income-1.5982862

[2952-0-0]

Liberal and NDP both held conventions this weekend.

This "woke" banker will make a fine candidate for Toronto-St. Paul's, but I don't see him sweeping the country or anything:

https://www.cpac.ca/en/programs/cpac-special/episodes/66359485/

It will be difficult for the Conservatives to attack Mark Carney, when they appointed him to head the Bank of Canada. Someone like him would be good to bolster the Liberals' economic credentials among Tom and Jane from Oakville. He reminds me of Paul Martin, in that he certainly knows his stuff, but he's not tested in retail politics. The Liberals should require him to run in a somewhat competitive seat.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It will be difficult for the Conservatives to attack Mark Carney, when they appointed him to head the Bank of Canada. Someone like him would be good to bolster the Liberals' economic credentials among Tom and Jane from Oakville. He reminds me of Paul Martin, in that he certainly knows his stuff, but he's not tested in retail politics. The Liberals should require him to run in a somewhat competitive seat.

There aren't many vacant safe LPC seats anyway. Bains vacated Mississauga-Malton, but they're having a nomination meeting soon and parachuting Carney wouldn't be a good look. Don Valley East is a vacant but titanium Liberal seat, but Micheal Coteau has it in the bag.

If he does want to run though, probably not a good idea to throw him into a competitive race. He would be an obviously qualified candidate for finance or treasury board, and like you said would help the LPC's poor image on economics among suburban voters (I might be wrong, but despite all the noise made by the left as of late, I still think the next Canadian election will be decided by economic centrists, as are most Canadian elections). He won't help the elitist image, but with a Trudeau as Prime Minister that's inevitable. But the LPC is better off parachuting him into a safe seat if he wants to run. Carney has headed the central banks of two countries with a combined GDP of $5 trillion USD. Imagine pushing him to run in a seat where there is every chance of him being beaten by some real estate agent running for the Tories.

To be clear, I think this because he just doesn't seem like a potential leader to me. I just can't see Chrystia Freeland stepping aside and giving up her status as heir-apparent for someone who has served as many days as MP as the chimp from your local zoo. Obviously I can't read his mind but Carney doesn't seem like someone who would sacrifice a potential finance portfolio for a risky and improbable leadership challenge.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Apparently Geoff Regan isn't running for re-election in Halifax West. If Carney wants to run and Trudeau wants to parachute him into an easy race, this might be an option. He has no connection to Halifax or the maritimes though, might not be a good look, but I doubt that's enough to torpedo Carney in a Liberal seat that survived 2011.

[King of Kensington]

Is Carolyn Bennett running again?

[DC Al Fine]

I think we're overthinking this. Carney just needs a seat that's:

1) Safe
2) Anglo

And one of
a) Has an old MP who wouldn't mind retiring
b) Has an MP willing to take a cushy patronage job

The Liberals are a little light on A because of their wipeout in 2011, but even so, I'd be surprised if there are fewer than twenty seats that meet the criteria outlined above.

Apparently Geoff Regan isn't running for re-election in Halifax West. If Carney wants to run and Trudeau wants to parachute him into an easy race, this might be an option. He has no connection to Halifax or the maritimes though, might not be a good look, but I doubt that's enough to torpedo Carney in a Liberal seat that survived 2011.

Yeah it's Halifax, not Miramichi or Cape Breton. Local factor shouldn't impact Regan's seat at all.