Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

Canada is in some ways the inverse of the U.S, where the liberals have the problem of geographic concentration.

You mean Liberal vote very efficient while Democrat inefficient.  If popular vote is tied, GOP wins in US while in Canada Liberals win.  Democrats tend to have more blowouts in solid blue states than GOP does in solid red states.  Yes on a county level, there are more 80%+ red counties, than 80%+ blue counties, but population wise, far more live in the 80%+ blue counties which are often large cities while most the 80%+ red counties are generally sparsely populated rural counties so may take up a lot of land, but not a lot of people live in them. 

For Canada by contrast, Tories tend to run up the margins in Alberta and Saskatchewan while Liberals win elsewhere but they aren't blowouts. 

Last election was almost a scenario of Liberals losing all their votes in right places and Tories gaining in all the wrong places.  Biggest shifts were Prairies and Atlantic Canada.  In Prairies Tories already held most seats so just ran up bigger margins.  In Atlantic Canada, Liberals won by 40 points so could lose a fair bit and still hold most seats, but ironically it was almost picture perfect as Liberals lost the most amount of votes they could have without losing too many seats.  Had Liberals dropped another five points, their seat losses would have been much bigger in Atlantic Canada.  Tories only won 4 seats, but came within 5 points in 11 seats.  Of the close seats, only one, West Nova broke their way, all the others broke for Liberals although Fredericton was close and broke for Greens.

Saw same in BC, Manitoba, and Ontario.  Liberals took biggest hit outside Lower Mainland where held few seats to begin with, but vote held up stronger in Lower Mainland than rest of province.  Tories saw biggest gains in BC Interior where already strong while minimal in Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island where they needed to gain seats.  In Manitoba, swing was much bigger in Rural Manitoba which Tories already held than Winnipeg.  Even in Ontario, Liberals lost ground in rural Ontario, but saw favourable swings in 905 belt. 

At same time those inefficiencies aren't necessarily permanent.  In 2012 in US, were votes tied, Obama would have won and in Canada in 2015 a tie vote would have been close to a tie in seats.

[Bootes Void]

Toronto has cancelled all events through Canada Day

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/toronto-has-cancelled-all-events-through-canada-day-1.5322719

The City of Toronto has cancelled all city-led and city-permitted outdoor events up to and including Canada Day amid news that COVID-19 cases could again be on the rise in the city.

Mayor John Tory made the announcement during a briefing at city hall on Wednesday, telling reporters that the “disappointing news” is “no more pleasant to deliver than it is to receive.”

The decision comes as Medical Officer of Health Dr. Eileen de Villa reveals that Toronto’s reproductive number has risen to 1.1 after having stood at 0.81 as recently as last week, a development she said is “disheartening.”

[EastAnglianLefty]

I cannot think of any country in Western world where parties on right do well amongst Black community.  Pretty sure Tories despite doing poorly do better than GOP does and probably I suspect Black support for Tories in Canada is more in line with what it is in UK with Tories than for GOP in US.  In UK, Tories get about 20% Black support which is probably depending on election similar for Canada but obviously varies on how they do overall.  I suspect Doug Ford probably got in high 20s and NDP probably won Black vote in 2018 provincial election.

20% is about what you'd expect the Tories to get in a good year, although their floor is significantly lower. There's also a distinction to be made between black Caribbean and black African ancestry voters - anecdotally, the Tories seem to have a much higher ceiling amongst the latter than the former, though it's difficult to be certain because they're both relatively small groups and there's very little in the way of detailed polling on this. There's also a significant difference between black voters in areas with a large black population (usually working class and very strong Labour) and black voters in 90%+ white areas (more likely to be middle class and more likely to vote like their neighbours.) Most black Tory MPs are good examples of this - they tend to be from a black African background (often second generation), they mostly grew up in overwhelmingly white areas and a significant proportion of them went to expensive private schools.

[Hatman 🍁]

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

[beesley]

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

I know that Jody Wilson-Raybould was offered Minister of Indigenous Services (I know that's different from Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations) but declined because she didn't want to enforce provisions of the Indian Act. Obviously the bit about favouring different Indigenous groups doesn't apply to the same degree with the Indigenous Services role.

[MaxQue]

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

It's more about Indigenous representation in high-level Cabinet. Only 3 ever were in "real" Cabinet positions (excluding Ministers of State and other junior positions) and none currently.

[DabbingSanta]

This COVID hotel ordeal is a complete disaster, as to be expected with anything run by the Trudeau government.  Where are the human rights complaints?  We can't have people being attacked, sexually assaulted, and not provided with food or water, nonetheless being detained illegally in the first place.
 What has happened to our country?  Is there any chance we get our freedoms back?

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

It's more about Indigenous representation in high-level Cabinet. Only 3 ever were in "real" Cabinet positions (excluding Ministers of State and other junior positions) and none currently.

It probably doesn't help that the ridings with the highest number of reserves typically go NDP and most of the ones that don't (mostly in BC/AB/SA) go Conservative. The Liberals don't exactly have a deep pool of strong candidates to draw from without JWR

[Hatman 🍁]

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

I know that Jody Wilson-Raybould was offered Minister of Indigenous Services (I know that's different from Minister of Crown-Indigenous Relations) but declined because she didn't want to enforce provisions of the Indian Act. Obviously the bit about favouring different Indigenous groups doesn't apply to the same degree with the Indigenous Services role.

This is a good point, and more likely the true reason. No self respecting indigenous MP would want to seem like an "uncle Tom" by running the ministry.

[njwes]

I would imagine that Canada's Indigenous population (and maybe the Métis too) have the same split that exists to some extent among Natives/American Indians in the US: those few who claim to publicly speak and advocate for the native community and get the fawning attention of non-native do-gooders often have views that many or even most of the vast majority of "regular" Natives would not endorse or even contemplate.

[King of Kensington]

20% is about what you'd expect the Tories to get in a good year, although their floor is significantly lower. There's also a distinction to be made between black Caribbean and black African ancestry voters - anecdotally, the Tories seem to have a much higher ceiling amongst the latter than the former, though it's difficult to be certain because they're both relatively small groups and there's very little in the way of detailed polling on this. There's also a significant difference between black voters in areas with a large black population (usually working class and very strong Labour) and black voters in 90%+ white areas (more likely to be middle class and more likely to vote like their neighbours.) Most black Tory MPs are good examples of this - they tend to be from a black African background (often second generation), they mostly grew up in overwhelmingly white areas and a significant proportion of them went to expensive private schools.

Black Canadians and Black Brits both represent 3-4% of the national population, both have a fairly even split between Caribbean and roots..  Interestingly though it's the Caribbean population that's more concentrated in Canada (Toronto/Montreal - mostly Jamaican in the former, Haitian in the latter) and the African population more dispersed, while in England the opposite is the case (London is more African, other cities more Caribbean).

Ancestry of Black Canadians:

Caribbean  547,785
African  592,010 (including unspecified Black/African), 410,835 (specific African responses)
Canadian   138,650

[King of Kensington]

As for voting patterns, I don't think the Conservatives get 20% of the Black vote in normal circumstances (though Ford's PCs almost certainly did), even in the middle income suburban ridings with a lot of Black Canadians (i.e. Scarb-Rouge Park, Ajax, Brampton West) the Tories got around 20-25% of the vote and I'm sure Black voters there are less Conservative than non-Black voters.

[King of Kensington]

400 polls (large apartment buildings) in NW Toronto (York South-Weston, Humber River-Black Creek, Etobicoke North):

Liberals   69%
Conservatives  14%
NDP  13%

[EastAnglianLefty]

20% is about what you'd expect the Tories to get in a good year, although their floor is significantly lower. There's also a distinction to be made between black Caribbean and black African ancestry voters - anecdotally, the Tories seem to have a much higher ceiling amongst the latter than the former, though it's difficult to be certain because they're both relatively small groups and there's very little in the way of detailed polling on this. There's also a significant difference between black voters in areas with a large black population (usually working class and very strong Labour) and black voters in 90%+ white areas (more likely to be middle class and more likely to vote like their neighbours.) Most black Tory MPs are good examples of this - they tend to be from a black African background (often second generation), they mostly grew up in overwhelmingly white areas and a significant proportion of them went to expensive private schools.

Black Canadians and Black Brits both represent 3-4% of the national population, both have a fairly even split between Caribbean and roots..  Interestingly though it's the Caribbean population that's more concentrated in Canada (Toronto/Montreal - mostly Jamaican in the former, Haitian in the latter) and the African population more dispersed, while in England the opposite is the case (London is more African, other cities more Caribbean).

To an extent, although the bulk of the Caribbean population is in London and only a handful of other cities have significant communities. The difference is generally because the Caribbean communities were establish a generation or two earlier and were predominantly made up of public sector workers, whereas African communities have a spread of employment more representative of other predominantly working-class immigrant communities which were established around the same time.

Also, whilst there are Caribbean communities in more cities, I suspect that the African population in small towns and villages is higher than the Caribbean population, because the former is more middle-class.

[beesley]

20% is about what you'd expect the Tories to get in a good year, although their floor is significantly lower. There's also a distinction to be made between black Caribbean and black African ancestry voters - anecdotally, the Tories seem to have a much higher ceiling amongst the latter than the former, though it's difficult to be certain because they're both relatively small groups and there's very little in the way of detailed polling on this. There's also a significant difference between black voters in areas with a large black population (usually working class and very strong Labour) and black voters in 90%+ white areas (more likely to be middle class and more likely to vote like their neighbours.) Most black Tory MPs are good examples of this - they tend to be from a black African background (often second generation), they mostly grew up in overwhelmingly white areas and a significant proportion of them went to expensive private schools.

Black Canadians and Black Brits both represent 3-4% of the national population, both have a fairly even split between Caribbean and roots..  Interestingly though it's the Caribbean population that's more concentrated in Canada (Toronto/Montreal - mostly Jamaican in the former, Haitian in the latter) and the African population more dispersed, while in England the opposite is the case (London is more African, other cities more Caribbean).

To an extent, although the bulk of the Caribbean population is in London and only a handful of other cities have significant communities. The difference is generally because the Caribbean communities were establish a generation or two earlier and were predominantly made up of public sector workers, whereas African communities have a spread of employment more representative of other predominantly working-class immigrant communities which were established around the same time.

Also, whilst there are Caribbean communities in more cities, I suspect that the African population in small towns and villages is higher than the Caribbean population, because the former is more middle-class.

At the 2011 census (the latest data) there were 44 constituencies with greater than 10% black population, 38 in London, 3 in Birmingham and only 3 outside of either. If you take that down to 5% there are 104 including the 44 I already mentioned. 60 of the 104 are in London, which is notable since there are only 72 constituencies in London (I think). The others are all in England and tend to be in other cities or large towns within 100 miles of London (e.g. Bedford). There are 384 seats with fewer than 1% black population and 22 with fewer than 0.1%, which were mostly in the rural North of England. The highest proportion overall was in Camberwell and Peckham, followed by Croydon North and Lewisham Deptford, with Birmingham Ladywood the highest outside of London. Out of interest, the lowest was West Tyrone followed by Antrim North and Blyth Valley. Twickenham was the lowest in London but still above the UK average.

Only 5 of the top seats have black MPs but you'll never get a majority black seat in the UK. My guess at the lowest %black seat with a black MP was Saffron Walden, though the MP is from London.

As you say the Caribbean population is likely concentrated into those London seats but the large numbers in places like Bedford and Reading suggest higher African populations (though not without Caribbean population, I know there are a few in Reading.) For what it's worth I went to school in a very middle class area, there were only 3 black people in the school and I think they were all of African background.

Apologies as it's not relevant to Canada but I just thought to mention it since I have the data.

[mileslunn]

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

It's more about Indigenous representation in high-level Cabinet. Only 3 ever were in "real" Cabinet positions (excluding Ministers of State and other junior positions) and none currently.

It probably doesn't help that the ridings with the highest number of reserves typically go NDP and most of the ones that don't (mostly in BC/AB/SA) go Conservative. The Liberals don't exactly have a deep pool of strong candidates to draw from without JWR

Indigenous I think generally go pretty massively either NDP or Liberal but rarely Conservative.  Tories might do somewhat better amongst Metis but doubt they win them, but might as most in Prairies.  Now in Far north, Tories occasionally win indigenous vote like Leona Aguulak of Nunavut but in Far North generally people vote based on candidate not party.

[mileslunn]

For visible minorities, I would say it goes like this using stat can breakdowns.

Chinese: Voted heavily Liberal back in 90s, but Harper made big gains here and while some reversion, Tories based on results in Richmond, BC; Richmond Hill and Markham appear to do better than general public.  Also I believe those from Hong Kong more likely to vote Tory than those from Mainland China.  On balance I would say centre-right so if Tories drift too far right have trouble, but at same token Trudeau's move to left may be hurting party here.  Also generational divide as BC Liberals used to win big in Richmond, but NDP won 3 of 4 seats last provincial so I am guessing first generation mostly BC Liberal, but second generation probably vote same way other cohorts do.

South Asian: Sikhs and Muslims go mostly Liberal with NDP in second while Tories distant third.  For Hindus, Tories do better although Liberals still have edge but its why Mississauga is more competitive than Brampton.  Tories only win Brampton on strong splits and trends are definitely making it less winnable.  Surrey may elect Tory MPs, but mostly in southern and eastern parts which are still fairly white, not the parts with large South Asian population.

Black: Liberals followed by NDP with Tories likely struggling here.  Probably don't do as badly as GOP does, but still probably one of their worst groups.

Filipino: A mix but tend to be fairly socially conservative so like in US, Liberals probably have edge, but wouldn't be shocked if Tories get north of 30% amongst them. 

Arab: Liberal mostly followed by NDP.  This after First Nations is probably the weakest group for Tories even more so than Blacks.  Although religious divide too as Arab Christians, Tories probably get in 20s while amongst Muslims likely in single digits.

Southeast Asian: Mostly Vietnamese here and probably mostly Liberal but some NDP and Tories too.  They don't go as heavily Tory as they do GOP in US nor as much as they go L/NP in Australia.  In Australia I believe Vietnamese go heavily L/NP while in US usually GOP, although Obama in 2012 (not 2008) and Clinton in 2016 did win here, but flipped back to Trump 2020.

Latin American: Unlike US, few areas in large enough numbers to really say but probably Liberal and NDP.  I suspect percentage who vote Tory is lower than percentage of Hispanics who go GOP.

West Asian: Mostly Iranians here.  Heavily Liberal although in BC provincially they tend to go BC Liberal.  Generally above average income so bad for NDP, but Islamophobia amongst Conservatives is probably why they don't go Tory.  Yes Tories sometimes win North Shore although less so of recent while quite competitive in Richmond Hill, but I would suspect it is more large Chinese and to lesser extent Jewish community that helps Tories there, not Iranian.

Korean: Lean liberal, but some Tory support and some NDP support in BC, but in GTA mostly Liberal/Tory race.

Japanese: With most being 3rd generation or more, they vote same way whites do where they live and things like age, gender, education, urban vs. rural probably play a bigger role than ethnicity. 

Also with visible minorities location matters a lot too.

Quebec: Go massively Liberal as most federalists and that is probably the province Tories do worst amongst them, likely low teens maybe single digits.

Ontario:  More favourable to Tories than Quebec, but less so than BC and Alberta and likewise fewer would go NDP in Ontario than in BC.  Ford did well here in 2018 and Harper in 2011, while Howarth in 2018 but in most elections I would say Tory and NDP support is below what they get provincially and Liberal above.

Manitoba: NDP does really well here and Liberals too while Tories poorly.  Tory support in Winnipeg is mostly in south and west side which is the whitest part.  Also historically those parts mostly British, German and Dutch descent while Eastern Europeans settled more on north and eastern side and NDP at least historically tended to do well amongst Ukrainians and Polish while British, Dutch, and Germans would go Tory. 

Nova Scotia: Pretty sure Black community goes mostly Liberal or NDP

Saskatchewan: Visible minorities have only grown in numbers recently and aren't concentrated in anyone neighbourhood so tough to say.

Alberta: This is without question the province Tories do best amongst visible minorities.  Maybe not as well as overall, but usually come in first here.  And makes some sense, I imagine regardless of race, those with conservative views are probably more likely to move to Alberta than those with progressive views due to its political culture.  Likewise even in Alberta, Tories probably do better amongst minorities in Calgary than Edmonton.

British Columbia: Liberals do better than amongst general population, but don't have near the lock or dominance as they do in Central Canada.  Likewise both NDP and Tories tend to do better amongst visible minorities in BC than they do in Ontario.  BC while still has racism, has highest rate of intermarriage of any province.

Off course visible minorities are not monolithic and while may lean a certain way they still like any voter decide based on candidates, leader, and policy.

[Estrella]

I would imagine that Canada's Indigenous population (and maybe the Métis too) have the same split that exists to some extent among Natives/American Indians in the US: those few who claim to publicly speak and advocate for the native community and get the fawning attention of non-native do-gooders often have views that many or even most of the vast majority of "regular" Natives would not endorse or even contemplate.

There is certainly a divide between - for the want of better terms - the elite and the rest, but it's not so one-sided. Just look at the hot-button issue right now: there are many anti-pipeline chiefs, but also many pro-pipeline ones (the latter are like half of Jason Kenney's Twitter feed). It's very likely that there are a fair few chiefs whose opinions run against the prevailing mood within their community, one way or another. But we can't know that for sure because the position is often hereditary, which is the main problem here.

I'm tempted to say that the federal government should do something about this lack of democratic accountability, but considering what the last big attempt at Indian Act reform (Trudeau the Elder's White Paper) was like... maybe not. Though this Trudeau will most likely just continue what he's doing now and harm Indigenous people by incompetence and laziness, rather than outright malice.

[King of Kensington]

The NDP received 15% of the vote in just three outer Toronto ridings in the last federal election: York South-Weston, Humber River-Black Creek and Scarborough Southwest - incidentally three seats they won provincially.  They also topped 15% in all the Brampton seats (where the majority of GTA Sikhs live).  In Brampton East - the Singh family seat and most heavily Sikh part of Brampton they received 26% - higher than in the "second tier" City of Toronto targeted seats.  But even there they were more than 20 points behind the Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

In terms of the Indigenous vote, the poll-level results rarely reflect what we see in polling, which tells me that there is a stark difference between people who may identify as Indigenous due to having some Indigenous ancestry (but are mostly White, but will identify as Indigenous in a survey) and those living on reserve or in Indigenous communities/ghettos (for lack of a better term, but talking about urban Indigenous populations like in Winnipeg Centre) who are less likely to answer surveys, but we know vote NDP or Liberal from poll maps. 

[Hatman 🍁]

Southeast Asian: Mostly Vietnamese here and probably mostly Liberal but some NDP and Tories too.  They don't go as heavily Tory as they do GOP in US nor as much as they go L/NP in Australia.  In Australia I believe Vietnamese go heavily L/NP while in US usually GOP, although Obama in 2012 (not 2008) and Clinton in 2016 did win here, but flipped back to Trump 2020.

I've mentioned this before, but the Vietnamese population in Ottawa (used to) vote heavily NDP - at least the one's in Ottawa Centre. Paul Dewar's mother was responsible for bringing over a lot of Vietnamese refugees when she was mayor, so they voted for him en masse out of loyalty. Walking through Chinatown during an election, you would see Paul Dewar signs in every Vietnamese restaurant window.

[King of Kensington]

In terms of the Indigenous vote, the poll-level results rarely reflect what we see in polling, which tells me that there is a stark difference between people who may identify as Indigenous due to having some Indigenous ancestry (but are mostly White, but will identify as Indigenous in a survey) and those living on reserve or in Indigenous communities/ghettos (for lack of a better term, but talking about urban Indigenous populations like in Winnipeg Centre) who are less likely to answer surveys, but we know vote NDP or Liberal from poll maps. 

Yes, and then there's been the rise of the so-called "Eastern Metis" who are neither Metis or Indigenous. 

There are now apparently more "Metis" in Nova Scotia than African Nova Scotians. 

[King of Kensington]

So pretty much every Visible Minority group votes plurality-Liberal, except for Chinese who are either a bit Conservative or evenly split.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

It's more about Indigenous representation in high-level Cabinet. Only 3 ever were in "real" Cabinet positions (excluding Ministers of State and other junior positions) and none currently.

It probably doesn't help that the ridings with the highest number of reserves typically go NDP and most of the ones that don't (mostly in BC/AB/SA) go Conservative. The Liberals don't exactly have a deep pool of strong candidates to draw from without JWR

Indigenous I think generally go pretty massively either NDP or Liberal but rarely Conservative.  Tories might do somewhat better amongst Metis but doubt they win them, but might as most in Prairies.  Now in Far north, Tories occasionally win indigenous vote like Leona Aguulak of Nunavut but in Far North generally people vote based on candidate not party.

That may be the case for people outside of reserves who identify as Indigenous but I'm talking specifically about the votes of the actual reserves themselves. West of Manitoba the Liberals have even less traction than the Tories.

For example, take a look at Skeena-Bulkley Valley. It's represented provincially by a Liberal councillor from one of the pro-pipeline nations and sits at the center of the whole controversy but the federal Liberals barely broke double digits there last election.

I'd be curious to see a poll by poll breakdown of the riding but while the NDP probably dominates most reserves I'm pretty confident that the ones that they don't (again, west of Manitoba) are far more likely to go Conservative than Liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

I've often wondered why this is too; it seems so absurd to not be intentional. My best guess is that no government has wanted to seem like it was favouring one Indigenous group over another.

It's more about Indigenous representation in high-level Cabinet. Only 3 ever were in "real" Cabinet positions (excluding Ministers of State and other junior positions) and none currently.

It probably doesn't help that the ridings with the highest number of reserves typically go NDP and most of the ones that don't (mostly in BC/AB/SA) go Conservative. The Liberals don't exactly have a deep pool of strong candidates to draw from without JWR

Indigenous I think generally go pretty massively either NDP or Liberal but rarely Conservative.  Tories might do somewhat better amongst Metis but doubt they win them, but might as most in Prairies.  Now in Far north, Tories occasionally win indigenous vote like Leona Aguulak of Nunavut but in Far North generally people vote based on candidate not party.

That may be the case for people outside of reserves who identify as Indigenous but I'm talking specifically about the votes of the actual reserves themselves. West of Manitoba the Liberals have even less traction than the Tories.

For example, take a look at Skeena-Bulkley Valley. It's represented provincially by a Liberal councillor from one of the pro-pipeline nations and sits at the center of the whole controversy but the federal Liberals barely broke double digits there last election.

I'd be curious to see a poll by poll breakdown of the riding but while the NDP probably dominates most reserves I'm pretty confident that the ones that they don't (again, west of Manitoba) are far more likely to go Conservative than Liberal.

I'm not aware of a single reserve in the country (that isn't plurality White, yes they exist) that voted Conservative...