Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[Benjamin Frank]

I think a lot of people would enjoy seeing a Carney-Poilievre race.

Interesting, yes, but not the kind of race you throw a political rookie into if your intention is to get him into a cabinet role asap

OTOH, they can't make Ignatieff's mistake and just gift him a safe seat.

It's not really the same situation though, is it? Iggy never got cabinet experience, but if Carney runs and wins in a possibly imminent 2021 election, he almost certainly will because the chance of a non-Liberal government is so low at this point. Besides I dont think the safe seat was what made Ignatieff a bad politician, he was just a bad politician to begin with. Who knows if Carney would make a good one but a cabinet position would be a good test.

I'd hate to see Carney run in Carleton though. Imagine all this hype, all this potential, the chance of adding real credibility to this government on the economy file, the chance of creating a competitive race for the direction of a post-Trudeau LPC...all gone to waste because of Pierre Poilievre. Carleton is still a tough seat for the Liberals

Michael Ignatieff is one of those I regard as a highly intelligent idiot.  This is not the same as 'book smarts' vs street smarts, but a person who is clearly very perceptive but just seems to lack common sense.  The other obvious examples are former Conservative Immigration Minister Chris Alexander, and former B.C Liberal Party leader Andrew Wilkinson.  I'm not sure if Bill Morneau should be included in this group or not.  He had a great resume prior to entering politics, but unlike Ignatieff, Alexander and Wilkinson who all were clearly very perceptive, Morneau never struck me as actually being very intelligent.  I'm not sure if he just dumbed down his economic arguments (he has a masters in economics) too much to the point where it sounded like he thought he was talking to elementary school students, though.

[Benjamin Frank]

As for ancestral Liberal, should include ancestral NDP and ancestral Tory.  In Atlantic Canada you have a number of ancestrally Red Tory ridings that went solidly PC, but in recent years now Liberal like South Shore-St. Margaret's or Central Nova.  Also more recently you have your affluent educated ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton, and two North Shore in BC which used to be reliably conservative, but now seem like safe Liberal, although I do think Tories if they ditched the cultural and social conservatism might still have a chance in those, but may not (hard to know for sure).  Could a Michael Chong or Peter MacKay led Tory party win those or are they gone?

For NDP, much of Saskatchewan north of Regina would fall into this.  Oshawa, Essex, and Brantford-Brant are also sort of examples of your blue collar once solidly NDP-Liberal, but now increasingly Conservative.  In BC, Kootenay-Columbia probably best example of ancestral NDP.  Yes went NDP in 2015, but seems to be moving away.  Provincially certainly much bigger shift as Prince George, Kamloops, East Kootenays, and Cariboo all went NDP in 90s and were tight races in 2005 and 2009, but since 2013 have swung hard towards BC Liberals and even in 2020 disaster they held those areas.

For the city of Prince George provincially, I think the popularity of Shirley Bond is a big reason why the Liberals are so dominant there.

And, for some reason that I can't fathom, Todd Stone also seems to be very popular in the city of Kamloops.

[Benjamin Frank]

As for ancestral Liberal, should include ancestral NDP and ancestral Tory.  In Atlantic Canada you have a number of ancestrally Red Tory ridings that went solidly PC, but in recent years now Liberal like South Shore-St. Margaret's or Central Nova.  Also more recently you have your affluent educated ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton, and two North Shore in BC which used to be reliably conservative, but now seem like safe Liberal, although I do think Tories if they ditched the cultural and social conservatism might still have a chance in those, but may not (hard to know for sure).  Could a Michael Chong or Peter MacKay led Tory party win those or are they gone?

For NDP, much of Saskatchewan north of Regina would fall into this.  Oshawa, Essex, and Brantford-Brant are also sort of examples of your blue collar once solidly NDP-Liberal, but now increasingly Conservative.  In BC, Kootenay-Columbia probably best example of ancestral NDP.  Yes went NDP in 2015, but seems to be moving away.  Provincially certainly much bigger shift as Prince George, Kamloops, East Kootenays, and Cariboo all went NDP in 90s and were tight races in 2005 and 2009, but since 2013 have swung hard towards BC Liberals and even in 2020 disaster they held those areas.

For the city of Prince George provincially, I think the popularity of Shirley Bond is a big reason why the Liberals are so dominant there.

And, for some reason that I can't fathom, Todd Stone also seems to be very popular in the city of Kamloops.

Partly, but Prince George has two provincial ridings and BC Liberals won both by over 20 points in 2020.  Ditto Kamloops while Todd Stone's riding includes the more affluent part of Kamloops which is the south side while north side is more working class thus traditionally better for NDP.  I mean not all bad for NDP as while they've lost some traditional ones in Interior, they've more than made than up by gaining many traditional BC Liberal ones in Lower Mainland so shift ended up working out in their favour overall.

I think Shirley Bond's popularity benefits the Liberals in and around Prince George, not just in her riding.

Peter Milobar was only reelected by 1.5% in the other Kamloops area riding despite having been a popular 3 term mayor.

I think Kamloops will be a very interesting riding federally, if there is an election, with the nearby fires.  It's been fairly competitive but the Liberals and the NDP have been splitting the vote and the Conservatives consistently get fairly narrowly elected.

[Benjamin Frank]

Also more recently you have your affluent educated ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton, and two North Shore in BC which used to be reliably conservative, but now seem like safe Liberal, although I do think Tories if they ditched the cultural and social conservatism might still have a chance in those, but may not (hard to know for sure).  Could a Michael Chong or Peter MacKay led Tory party win those or are they gone?

I can't speak for the north shore ridings in BC (other than to say that West Van-Sea to Sky has a really weird distribution), but the Ontario ones have changed a lot. Kanata is something of an economic hub in its own right with the huge tech industry there, going from Ottawa proper to Kanata feels almost like driving out of the city. Burlington also has a similar vibe these days. Generally, as metropolitan areas grow, once-suburban areas turn into mini-urban cores in their own right and this changes the political complexion, namely adding an NDP element and generally weakening the Tories. FWIW both Burlington and Kanata are PC-held provincially, but with all things being equal (which they most certainly were not in Onpoli 2018), they're still competitive ridings - whereas in the past, Burlington and Kanata would have been lean Tory.

Not that long ago, going to Kanata was driving out of the city of Ottawa.

[Benjamin Frank]

Northeast BC is rather Northern Alberta-like, and Prince George is rather isolated so will be slow to flip I think. 

I'm not sure why the Peace River area is in British Columbia and not in Alberta. There are similar areas in the East Kootenays that are east of the Rocky Mountains.  I believe the dividing line between the two provinces was made before anybody mapped the area.

Of course, with oil in the North and mining in the South, British Columbia isn't going to just give those places to Alberta, even though there are sometimes petitions from those areas to join Alberta.  Logically, they should be part of Aliberta.

[Benjamin Frank]

Northeast BC is rather Northern Alberta-like, and Prince George is rather isolated so will be slow to flip I think. 

The Liberals came quite close in Cariboo-Prince George in 2015.  They had a very strong candidate though.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/Puglaas/status/1413128438592933898

Did the electors of Granville finally smelled the coffee and realised she was one of the most incompetent and overpromoted politician in Canada?

And she was widely considered one of, if not the most incompetent minister during Trudeau's first term. But yall aren't ready for that conversation because SNC woman good

I don't agree with that. She had a mixed track record.  The biggest criticism of her from a liberal perspective was frequently that she was too conservative.

[Benjamin Frank]

Nothing especially important, but I'm sure regulars in this thread know this guy.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ksituan/status/1412480864597032971

He's running for the Jagmeet Singh Party apparently 

It's always funny to see whether parties lean in more to the leader's brand or the party brand because that's usually a good indicator of which brand is more popular. We saw "Team Trudeau" back in 2015, and now the NDP seems to be going for "Team Jagmeet"

Somehow I don't think we'll see "Team O'Toole" or "Team Del Duca" anytime soon

Just wait for Del Ducamania.

[Benjamin Frank]

Conservatives pitch fiscal reform to end 'mistreatment of Western Canadians' - Leader Erin O'Toole, in Calgary a day after PM, says Alberta would get $4B under plan


"The proposal would give Alberta $4 billion in rebates, according to the Conservatives, leaving $1 billion for the rest of the country."

The irony is probably lost on those fine folks who vote CPC because the damn Frenchies in Kwebeck and the lazy fishers in the maritimes steal their hard earned tax dollars through equalization

Probably suggests internals are horrible and actually at risk of losing seats in Alberta so trying to shore up that.  Fact Trudeau is in Alberta and seems quite confident suggests to me party internals show they are possibly on cusp of breakthrough there.

Trudeau's trying to make big moves in Alberta, that's for sure. He was in Calgary to announce a new LRT line with Nenshi, he discussed equalization with Kenney, and he just poached a Calgary City councillor to run for the Grits in Skyview (which suggests that the riding is in play, politicians don't just leave behind their office to run in an unwinnable race). Tories have good reason to be worried.

Could you see Trudeau being the longest serving PM in Canadian history?

He's a long way from that.  William Lyon MacKenzie King was Prime Minister for over 21 years.  (Most of 1922-1930, 1935-1948.)

Even topping Pierre Trudeau's roughly 15 years is a long way off.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

I definitly think that the Conservative Internal polls have captured a huge surge in support of Western regionalist Parties and are definitly afraid of them becoming a new reform party that ultimately pushes them out of power for a decade similar to the reform Party.

The fact that O'Toole is pandering heavily to Alberta and Saskatchewan with his Equalization rebate policy and other announcements seem to indicate they have givend up winning the election and are instead just trying to hold the west.

Yes, I agree with this. The problem is, and I don't think either of us are saying there is just one cause for any Conservative decline, is this can't fully explain the decline.  From the 2004 election to this NANOS poll, the Conservatives have lost 6% (29.6-23.6%.)  So, sure the NANOS poll is the lowest poll for Conservative support, but on the other hand, the next low in an election in Conservative support was 31.9% in 2015.  Four of the six recent polls show the Conservatives losing about 6% support from what had been assumed to be their base.

So, arithmetically Western regional parties can't fully explain this.  Alberta is slightly over 12.5% of the Canadian population and add in Saskatchewan and they're around 14.5% of the population.  If all the Conservative loss in support is based on Western regional parties, that would mean these regional parties would have to be polling at roughly 40% (6/14.5.)  I certainly don't think that is the case.

[Benjamin Frank]

I'm sure this has been, if not answered, then at least discussed. I've read some of the comments in this thread, but I have to say I haven't seen anybody clearly answer it (not in a way that fully makes sense to me anyway.)

Never mind the polls right after Paul Martin became Liberal leader when it was generally assumed the Liberals would win 250 seats, the low the Conservatives received in an election was 29.6% of the vote in 2004.  According to NANOS, the Conservatives are now at 23.6% support.  It's generally assumed the base for the Conservatives is around 30%.

How does one explain this sharp and sudden drop in support for the Conservatives below what was assumed to be their base?

TBH, it makes no sense to me.

Because the Conservative Party of Canada is unbelievably awful. They combine the worst aspects of politics - they've got the bumbling incompetence that Trudeau displayed in his first term, they've got the standoffish and nasty nature Harper displayed in his last term, and ultimately they seem like an empty vessel that rarely puts forward half-decent policy ideas.

They've alienated a huge chunk of their accessible voters, both centrists and right wingers. They can't compete with the Liberals on policy ideas (in part because Trudeau can run around funding LRT projects and O'Toole can't). They don't seem competent when O'Toole can't seem to keep his party singing to the same tune, and his provincial Conservative counterparts haven't been doing very well.

Seriously, if you're not a CPC loyalist, or someone who wants Trudeau to go above all else, why should you vote for the Conservative Party?

As somebody on the center left (a liberal but not a Liberal) I obviously agree with this, but the problem is we're not really the voters that the Conservative Party is targeting or has been part of their base for 17+ years.  So, this is our view, but is it the view of those voters?

[Benjamin Frank]

Oh yeah if we're talking elsewhere in the Anglo world there are tons of similar places in the Pacific Northwest. BC is basically an extension of the PNW in some respects.

Within Canada, you could make an argument for PEI except it's very deferential to the LPC and the NDP doesn't have much of a presence. But it's old, white, pretty rural, touristy, and leans left. Although PEI is also very agricultural unlike Vancouver Island, so the root of its left lean is different. PEI is ancestrally Liberal, very rarely voting Tory federally, while Vancouver Island does not have this ancestral Liberal tradition.

I would describe PEI as more traditional Red Tory in likes of Joe Clark and Robert Stanfield.  They have a Tory premier who is very popular.  Federally Tories do poorly there as right wing populism doesn't sell there and party seen as too much like Reform Party.  So I would argue Liberal strength there is more due to dislike of alternatives.  In many ways it is your communitarian conservative area in culture and that style of conservatism is largely absent in federal Tories but Liberals in many ways have elements that can appeal to those types.

I was mistaken in my perception, PEI was dominated by the PCs (federally) between 1957-1984, the golden age of Red Toryism. It was titanium Liberal before Diefenbaker though, unlike the two other maritime provinces which always had a strong Tory streak even before Dief.

There was a brief attempt in Canada to deny that Trudeaumania existed in 1968. They point to that Trudeau did not do as well as either Diefenbaker in 1958 or Brian Mulroney in 1984.  Fair enough as far as it goes, the Liberals 'only' won 155 of 264 seats with 45.4% of the vote.  However, part of the reason for that is that there was a smaller somewhat offsetting Stanfieldmania in the Atlantic in 1968.

[Benjamin Frank]

Green Party decides to keep the anti-Quebec bigot and perpetual victim as leader.

That's a rather interesting way to introduce the news.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/green-party-execs-cancel-non-confidence-vote-against-leader-annamie-paul-sources-1.5514081

Green party execs cancel non-confidence vote against leader Annamie Paul: sources

[Benjamin Frank]

Carney not running in next election but doesn't rule out future run:

https://twitter.com/DavidWCochrane/status/1417554694566731780

*crying Liberal noises*

It's a shame, but understandable. Guys had a successful nonpartisan career, jumping into partisan politics isn't always an easy thing for technocrats like Carney. I hope he still plays a strong advisory role in this government though.

I dont usually support importing American ideas into Canadian politics, but I would prefer a Westminster-American hybrid system where cabinet can include both parliamentarians and non-parliamentarians (the latter requiring a confirmation vote)

I realize you are implicitly referring to this, but there can be no hybrid because the Westminster system requires accountability from ministers by being available to answer questions in Parliament.  However, Marc Carney (or any other Canadian) could be made a minister by being appointed to the Senate.  This procedure has declined in recent years in Canada, and I believe Justin Trudeau has said that he won't do it, but Pierre Trudeau had a number of ministers in the Senate from the Western provinces where he had few or zero  M.Ps to choose from.

Stephen Harper appointed Michel Fortier to the Senate as a cabinet minister to try to give the city of Montreal representation in his cabinet.

There was, of course, also recent discussion of separating the duties of the Attorney General from the Minister of Justice, as well as maybe the duties of the Solicitor General from the Public Safety Minister and having the Attorney General and Solicitor General be members of the Canadian Senate, similar to the U.K and the House of Lords.

[Benjamin Frank]

Mainstreet shows tightening too, but Liberals still slightly ahead https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/conservatives-gain-ground-on-liberals-poll-shows/ .  it is paywalled but seems for whatever reason the big Liberal leads have evaporated.  I do wonder what caused that or could it just be due to summer, low response rate so get greater variability?

Other possibility is a lot of the undecideds were past Conservative voters upset O'Toole wasn't Conservative enough but are coming home as this group hates Trudeau with a passion.

With these polls and with the possible resurgence of Covid, I wonder if there is now a real possibility that there won't be an early fall election.  Who knows, the Liberals may even govern up to the fixed election date.

Jody Wilson Raybould would get her M.P pension and the Liberals would actually have to work on reconciliation.  What a wonderful world that would be.

Oh yeah, and maybe Carolyn Bennett and Harjit Sajjan would be fired from the cabinet.

[Benjamin Frank]

Mainstreet shows tightening too, but Liberals still slightly ahead https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/conservatives-gain-ground-on-liberals-poll-shows/ .  it is paywalled but seems for whatever reason the big Liberal leads have evaporated.  I do wonder what caused that or could it just be due to summer, low response rate so get greater variability?

Other possibility is a lot of the undecideds were past Conservative voters upset O'Toole wasn't Conservative enough but are coming home as this group hates Trudeau with a passion.

With these polls and with the possible resurgence of Covid, I wonder if there is now a real possibility that there won't be an early fall election.  Who knows, the Liberals may even govern up to the fixed election date.

Jody Wilson Raybould would get her M.P pension and the Liberals would actually have to work on reconciliation.  What a wonderful world that would be.

Oh yeah, and maybe Carolyn Bennett and Harjit Sajjan would be fired from the cabinet.

You've got things confused. People shouldn't get pension merely for having overinflated egos and no skills.

She qualifies for a pension as an M.P if she serves for 6 or more years. I believe that she is not eligible to receive this pension for several more years though until she is 55.

[Benjamin Frank]

Mainstreet shows tightening too, but Liberals still slightly ahead https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/conservatives-gain-ground-on-liberals-poll-shows/ .  it is paywalled but seems for whatever reason the big Liberal leads have evaporated.  I do wonder what caused that or could it just be due to summer, low response rate so get greater variability?

Other possibility is a lot of the undecideds were past Conservative voters upset O'Toole wasn't Conservative enough but are coming home as this group hates Trudeau with a passion.

With these polls and with the possible resurgence of Covid, I wonder if there is now a real possibility that there won't be an early fall election.  Who knows, the Liberals may even govern up to the fixed election date.

Jody Wilson Raybould would get her M.P pension and the Liberals would actually have to work on reconciliation.  What a wonderful world that would be.

Oh yeah, and maybe Carolyn Bennett and Harjit Sajjan would be fired from the cabinet.

You've got things confused. People shouldn't get pension merely for having overinflated egos and no skills.

She qualifies for a pension as an M.P if she serves for 6 or more years. I believe that she is not eligible to receive this pension for several more years though until she is 55.

I know that, my comment was about that being a "wonderful" thing.
Through, the age is now 65, as she did not reach 6 years before January 1st, 2016.

I did not know that, so, you have even less to worry about.

When I wrote 'what a wonderful world that would be' I was being facetious more than anything by referencing the wonderful Same Cooke song. Can't pass up a chance to post a Sam Cooke song.

[Benjamin Frank]

A rebuttal to Andrew Coyne from a prominent Canadian political scientist:

https://twitter.com/regwhit1/status/1423792889566429190

It isn't just Andrew Coyne, prominent constitutional scholar and all-round controversial Canadian Norman Spector made the same arguments before the calling of the B.C election. (Spector helped negotiate the deal between the B.C NDP and the B.C Greens in 2017 and previously helped negotiate the failed Meech Lake Accords.)

Norman Spector: If premier asks for legislature to be dissolved, send him away to think about it
An open letter to B.C.'s Lieutenant Governor

https://www.vancouverisawesome.com/opinion/norman-spector-snap-election-john-horgan-bc-2020-2717199

I don't know about the Constitutionality, but as far as I'm concerned, we have a working Parliament (despite the best attempts of the Liberals) with legislation in the Senate, and a full plate of issues that require a government right now, and this government still has two years in its mandate.

[Benjamin Frank]

Apparently both Will Amos and Karen McCrimmon will not be running again either.

[Benjamin Frank]

Cancelling Spadina Expressway, TVOntario, community colleges...what a legacy!

And he was a Tory!

He was a centrist Progressive Conservative. The provincial Liberal Party for some of his time as Premier was a rural based party that was to the right of the Progressive Conservatives.  Bill Davis also had a minority government for a good deal of his time in office and, I believe, he was mostly propped up by the NDP.

[Benjamin Frank]

The NDP got stomped in Quebec in 2019, but even after that wipeout there was still a small number of ridings that weren't necessarily total lost causes. Are they trying to get the ex-MPs to run again or otherwise looking like they'll make any sort of effort in them, or has the whole province outside of Boulerice's seat been written off for the foreseeable future?

Wiki has a list of all the candidates. 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Candidates_of_the_44th_Canadian_federal_election

There are a few former M.Ps running for the NDP again in Quebec (and elsehwere)

[Benjamin Frank]

In Metro Vancouver, there's definitely been a Liberal shift that was not a 2015 fluke (Delta being a good example) and its voting patterns increasingly resemble the GTA.  Tories being pushed further out.  The NDP is holding its own in east side and inner suburban seats though where they've been traditionally been strong.

"Inner suburbs" has a different connotation in the United States than in Canada.  In Canada it merely means 'older and more established', and doesn't have the connotation of poverty as it has in the United States.

In British Columbia the inner Vancouver suburbs are Burnaby, North Vancouver (District) and Richmond, all of which are distinctly middle class.  The only part of the Lower Mainland that is somewhat lower middle class is New Westminster, which used to be home to a lot of working class union types (and likely still is.)

New Westminster is undoubtedly gentrifying but they seem to want to keep a lot of the older developments as 'heritage.' Of course, the buildings are being used which can make 'renewal' more difficult, but parts of New Westminster do have something of a 'run down' look.  On the other hand, some probably consider that part of the charm.

Of course, because Vancouver is part of a peninsula, the only city that directly borders it is Burnaby.  Bridges connect Vancouver with Richmond and North Vancouver (District.) There is the seabus that connects Vancouver to North Vancouver (District) as well, as well as North Vancouver (Lonsdale) and West Vancouver.

Of course, if you are in West Vancouver and aren't worth at least $100 million, you can be immediately deported back to Vancouver. /s

[Benjamin Frank]

1.I think some of these people could get into the cabinet right away because one that you mentioned is a former M.P and several others are former provincial cabinet ministers.

However, I think Justin Trudeau learned a lesson here. In 2015, a large number of the cabinet were newly elected M.Ps.  That was not entirely a surprise given that there was a regional balance issue with a good number of those M.P being from the Atlantic. However, including the 15 former M.Ps who were returned in 2015, there were 45 members with Parliamentary experience. Undoubtedly the biggest flop of all these newly elected M.Ps to cabinet was Finance Minister Bill Morneau.  He wasn't the first to be dropped, but he was a dud in a very senior position.

In contrast, in 2019, of the more than newly elected Liberal M.Ps, only two were appointed to cabinet: Anita Anand and Steven Gibeault.

I would not be surprised if some you mentioned and possibly  others get into cabinet, but I wouldn't be surprised if they were appointed to the positions that used to be junior ministers, while a few of the junior ministers get promoted to more senior roles (like Deb Schulte for instance.)

2.Buckley Belanger is a long time Saskatchewan MLA and cabinet minister.  He was first elected in 1995 as a provincial Liberal, but crossed to the NDP by the end of his first term.

Prior to getting elected he was an administrator and producer for the northern Saskatchewan television network, and was a mayor.

An interesting bit of election trivia here: the NDP MLA that he defeated in 1995, Fred Thompson, was elected with around 90% of the vote in 1991.

3.Northern New Democrats 'crossing the floor' to run for the Liberals are nothing new. In 2000, Northern Manitoba NDP M.P Rod Murphy crossed the floor to the Liberal Party (one of about five M.Ps who did, most of them P.C M.Ps in Quebec or Acadian ridings who were elected under P.C leader Jean Charest.)  

In Saskatchewan, prior to Buckley Belanger, NDP MLA and cabinet minister Joan Beatty ran for the Federal Liberals in this same riding.

[Benjamin Frank]

In Metro Vancouver, there's definitely been a Liberal shift that was not a 2015 fluke (Delta being a good example) and its voting patterns increasingly resemble the GTA.  Tories being pushed further out.  The NDP is holding its own in east side and inner suburban seats though where they've been traditionally been strong.

"Inner suburbs" has a different connotation in the United States than in Canada.  In Canada it merely means 'older and more established', and doesn't have the connotation of poverty as it has in the United States.

In British Columbia the inner Vancouver suburbs are Burnaby, North Vancouver (District) and Richmond, all of which are distinctly middle class.  The only part of the Lower Mainland that is somewhat lower middle class is New Westminster, which used to be home to a lot of working class union types (and likely still is.)

New Westminster is undoubtedly gentrifying but they seem to want to keep a lot of the older developments as 'heritage.' Of course, the buildings are being used which can make 'renewal' more difficult, but parts of New Westminster do have something of a 'run down' look.  On the other hand, some probably consider that part of the charm.

Of course, because Vancouver is part of a peninsula, the only city that directly borders it is Burnaby.  Bridges connect Vancouver with Richmond and North Vancouver (District.) There is the seabus that connects Vancouver to North Vancouver (District) as well, as well as North Vancouver (Lonsdale) and West Vancouver.

Of course, if you are in West Vancouver and aren't worth at least $100 million, you can be immediately deported back to Vancouver. /s

Haven't thought of it much, but Translink places Burnaby, New Westminster, the North Shore and Richmond in Zone 2 which seems to line up with "inner suburbs."  

Which suburbs would you say are more "416-like" and which are more "905-like"?

I wouldn't include New Westminster as an inner suburb simply because it isn't adjacent to the city of Vancouver, I certainly would include it as '416 like.'  I would include the tri cities area as well: Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam and Port Moody (along with the villages of Anmore and Belcarra.)

Delta is interesting because it's considered part of suburban Vancouver, but it's south of the Fraser River and is most accessible via the George Massey tunnel.

I would probably consider Delta, Surrey and the City of Langley as an area in-between the 416 part of Vancouver and the 905.

The '905' parts of Greater Vancouver south of the Fraser are Langley Township (which actually has a much larger population than the City of Langley), Abbotsford and Chilliwack, as well as Maple Ridge, Pitt Meadows and Mission.

the Northern parts I would include most of the District of North Vancouver, as well as places like Squamish and Whistler.  There are probably some smaller cities/towns there as well that I can't think of their names right now.  

Powell River/Sunshine Coast is interesting because it's kind of everywhere and nowhere all at once.  It's only accessible by ferry, but it's not all that far from Greater Vancouver (the North Shore), the Central Interior and Vancouver Island (central Vancouver Island - Nanaimo especially.)