Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[beesley]

Are there any Anglophone areas that are really demographically similar to Vancouver Island?

How do you mean? There are Anglo areas with a similar racial/age/income breakdown as Vancouver Island, but I can't name any other old, white, rural, and middle-to-low income area that votes so far to the left.

That's the answer I was looking for.

Isn't Brighton rather old, and fond of the Greens?

Sussex does have a large older population, but much of Brighton itself is very young these days.

[beesley]

I hope Carney runs in Battle River-Crowfoot for the sheer fun of the journalism.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1422342851518685185?s=19

Given that the mayoral race is straight FPTP I'd imagine Sohi is a clear frontrunner based on this poll, as expected. I'd guess on these figures he gets around 45%, which would be the lowest since Stephen Mandel's first victory.

[beesley]

Maxime Bernier won't get a vaccine apparently. Will that help him? Not enough to win any seat other than perhaps his own I would've thought.

[beesley]

Maxime Bernier won't get a vaccine apparently. Will that help him? Not enough to win any seat other than perhaps his own I would've thought.

I mean, did anyone expect him to get vaccinated? This isn't surprising at all and I doubt it will move any significant number of votes, in Beauce or elsewhere.

I meant that it wouldn't broaden any appeal beyond his own seat, not that it would make a difference in Beauce, apologies, I wasn't clear.

[beesley]

Interesting that the NDP has chosen Cheryl Hardcastle as their candidate in Windsor-Tecumseh, given she was a big part of the reason why she lost. It might not matter though.

Is there any Electoral Calculus style website where I can put some polling numbers in and see what happens? I know there's the 338 simulator, but anything more detailed would be fun.

[beesley]

Is there any Electoral Calculus style website where I can put some polling numbers in and see what happens? I know there's the 338 simulator, but anything more detailed would be fun.

https://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/canada-simulator.html

Ooh that is good. Thanks very much.

[beesley]

Interesting that the NDP has chosen Cheryl Hardcastle as their candidate in Windsor-Tecumseh, given she was a big part of the reason why she lost. It might not matter though.

Is there any Electoral Calculus style website where I can put some polling numbers in and see what happens? I know there's the 338 simulator, but anything more detailed would be fun.

If O'Toole's "blue collar strategy" actually goes anywhere (so far no evidence it's resonating at all) Windsor-Tecumseh is the kind of seat they could take.

Strikes me as a pretty weak strategy. What other seats are there that would flip? A few ridings like Sydney-Victoria, plus a few Hamilton and Niagara seats and maybe a few in Northern Ontario. That doesn't seem enough if he's struggling in York and the BC Lower Mainland.

[beesley]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

- Heath McDonald, PEI Liberal MLA running in Malpeque
- Jenica Atwin in Fredericton, notable because you know why
- Nathalie Rochefort, former PLQ MNA running in Becancour-Nicolet
- Nancy Drolet, former hockey player and Olympic silver running in Rosemont-Petite Patrie
- Jenna Sudds, Ottawa city councillor running in Kanata-Carleton
- Steve Black, former Timmins mayor running in Timmins-James Bay
- Ben Henderson, Edmonton councillor running in Edmonton-Mill Woods

A pretty comprehensive list however it's worth mentioning that there will be an MLA vs. MLA battle in Miramichi-Grand Lake, which is probably one of the likeliest Tory gains anywhere (NB: that does not mean it is likely!).

On that point, it's entirely possible that the Tories don't gain a single seat this election, which is not as dramatic as it sounds. I really struggle to see viable targets at the moment with a good chance of flipping.

[beesley]

Not particularly topical but I just found this extraordinary gem:

En pays pittoresque: un documentaire sur la Gaspésie

Well worth a skim, especially the opening. To me the narrator sounds so strange: a mix of an old-fashioned stilted newsreel voice and a good old provincial accent. Enjoy the bears at 11:15

I can see why it has earned its reputation as one of Canada's top retirement destinations even if life has changed much. There used to be a train from Montreal to Gaspé via the Bonaventure area, though that has ceased. Thanks for sharing.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/angeloisidorou/status/1444064196002410500?s=19

Seems to have been a well regarded figure, he worked in the Harper government and subsequently several local Conservative branches but was more well-known in the movement than that suggests. The more relevant point was how he got the gun within Canada, which conveys a tragic juxtaposition. My sincere condolences to those affected.

[beesley]

If Ontario is only adding 1 seat, then Northern Ontario and Rural Ontario will surely be losing some representation/members to the 905.

Which will attract costernation no doubt. And in Quebec, even with the maintenance of 78 seats, the Gaspesie/Bas Saint-Laurent could easily go from four to three, by the looks of it.

[beesley]

Harjit Sajjan is being reported as a certain move (but not sacking, just moving to a position like Infrastructure) while Randy Boissonault, Sean Fraser and Pascale-St. Onge are the most likely newcomers.

We'll find out in due course.

[beesley]

I get that O'Toole has a problem with his base, but I also don't think we should make the error of overstating how big that problem is. The longer Trudeau is in power, the more jaded the general public will get with his leadership. The fatigue will be real, widespread, and have huge electoral ramifications. In the past, going up against a conservative firebrand would have been the Liberals' best chance at holding onto support: Whip up fear around the Conservative leader and call it a day. The more normalized O'Toole becomes, and perhaps even the more at odds he is with the kooks in his party, the more comfortable some Canadians will feel turning away from Trudeau and trying something new.

The problem is that we don't know what is "normal" with Erin O'Toole, since shifting to the middle alienated the party base, and chances are he will be busy putting out fires on the right flank as long as he's leader. He hasn't found a way to convincingly respond to the social wedge issues that the right flank keep gifting to the Liberals on a silver plate.

IF the Liberals become as unpopular as the OLP under Kathleen Wynne, they might win regardless of their internal troubles, but we're a long way from there.

Are we really a long way from there? The affordability crisis is real, and there’s not much any government will ever be able to do with it, because out-of-reach real estate prices are a feature of the system, not a bug of the system. We are going to have a lot of pissed off people very soon. Add in a never-ending pandemic that Trudeau needs to keep deferring to the scientists on because it’s his brand, and people will be pissed. Trudeau is going to be backed into a corner on the pandemic in a way O’Toole will not be. O’Toole can be the alternative to out-of-touch Liberal elitism.

I think this could be worse for provincial governments.  Omicron is likely not the last variant we get and this will put provincial governments in a horrible bind.  Bring in another lockdown which people are tired of and won't go over well with majority who are vaccinated.  Or stay open and risk ICUs collapsing.  Fact Trudeau has no say over most public health restrictions probably helps as I think if he did he would be in a horrible pickle.  Much of the Liberal base are upper middle class professionals not heavily impacted by lockdowns so all for it as they are about following science.  But big part of Trudeau coalition in 2015 was millennials and they are most likely to be fatigued by restrictions.

Unless we get actual "vaccine escaping" variants (possible, but unlikely) it should be possible to avoid lockdowns without health services collapsing in well vaccinated countries (which Canada is) The truth is that lockdown was the appropriate response during the original pre-vaccine virus waves, but that is not the case now and governments should stop treating them as almost a routine event.

That may be true, but lots of health experts calling for lockdowns.  Canadians tend to be very risk averse so even if no need for them, many will ask for one out of fear.  Off course varies by province and territory.  Nunavut is already in lockdown but so far no one else.

Alberta I doubt does as Kenney faces a leadership review in April 2022 and any lockdown is almost certain to result in him being dumped on top of poor polling numbers.

Ontario unlikely either since despite being extra cautious, Ford faces an election this coming June.  Left is split while right is largely united, but another lockdown could give further right wing parties 5-10% of popular vote and they get similar #'s to PPC federally in Ontario he is finished.  Federally CPC + PPC was 40.4% in Ontario, exact percentage Ford got in 2018 thus any split on right no matter how small is fatal.

Saskatchewan likely won't due to ideological bent of government

BC unlikely either as Dr. Bonnie Henry makes decisions and she has generally taken a softer approach than most.

Now Quebec, Atlantic Canada, and Manitoba I could see going into lockdown.  Quebec already very close while Atlantic Canada has largely avoided COVID-19 to date so easy for people to freak out at current numbers despite high vaccine rates.

What are the hospitalisation/death figures at the moment? Are people calling for lockdown because they are high, or just to spread the high case load a bit so not everyone is in isolation? If not those two, then it's strange so many people would be willing to call for s lockdown. I see Ontario has already decided to bar care home visitors today.

[beesley]

Makes sense - he had a leadership review coming up.

[beesley]

Disappointed in Ford for bring in new restrictions when at this stage they are gonna do nothing. I think this is going to cost him votes. There are many moderate voters who would have voted PC just to make sure businesses are kept open and restrictions are kept to a minimum but if he is going to bring in these restrictions, then not much incentive for those voters to vote for him.

I agree it's disappointing, but there isn't much incentive for them to vote for the OLP or ONDP either, though.

[beesley]

I agree it's disappointing, but there isn't much incentive for them to vote for the OLP or ONDP either, though.

Considering Ford needs Ford-Trudeau voters in the GTA to win I am not sure I agree with this take. These people are perfectly comfortable voting for the Liberals (as evidenced by the recent federal election where the Liberals basically swept the region). If PCs are going introduce restrictions and be the same as OLP/ONDP then these voters may decide their vote based on other issues which may not be great for the PCs.

That's a fair point actually, I didn't think of that. Of course if they just choose not to turn out it's one less vote for Ford

[beesley]

I agree it's disappointing, but there isn't much incentive for them to vote for the OLP or ONDP either, though.

Considering Ford needs Ford-Trudeau voters in the GTA to win I am not sure I agree with this take. These people are perfectly comfortable voting for the Liberals (as evidenced by the recent federal election where the Liberals basically swept the region). If PCs are going introduce restrictions and be the same as OLP/ONDP then these voters may decide their vote based on other issues which may not be great for the PCs.

The problem is, the OLP is in a bad place. They constantly lag behind in fundraising, they haven't attracted much top talent (and lost one in Michael Couteau, who traded being the most prominent Liberal in the ON legislature for a position as a Trudeau backbencher), and the leader offers nothing in particular. Nor is the NDP ascendant, Horwath continues to be a pretty unremarkable leader, and unless Ford reeeeeally screws up, I can't see the NDP making gains.

The best hope for the anti-Ford wing of Ontario politics is that the NDP holds onto about 30% of the vote and most of their current seats, the Liberal recover to about 25% and pick up traditionally Liberal seats in Toronto and parts of the 905, and Ford alienates just enough of his base to see turnout drop - culminating in a minority situation where the centre-left can gang up on the PCs.

Not if you consider bankers to be top talent.  The Ontario Liberals have so far nominated about 10 former bankers as candidates. I'm not sure what's behind that.

1.Kanata-Carleton, Shahbaz Syed, Export Development Canada Financing Manager/Former Bank Risk Manager

2.Oakville-North Burlington Kaniz Mouli, RBC Senior Manager - Change and Engagement

3.Kitchener-Conestoga, Melanie Van Alphen, Former Scotia Bank Manager of Customer Service and Senior Personal Banking Officer

4.Oshawa, Catherine Moses, Bank Vice President of Compliance

5.Brampton South, Marilyn Raphael, T.D Asset Management Vice President Business and Product Governance

6.Richmond Hill, Roozbah Farhadi, Scotia Bank Small Business Development Manager

7.Don Valley West, Stephanie Bowman, Former Scotia Bank Senior Vice President, Former Bank of Canada Finance Committee Member

8.University-Rosedale, Andrea Barrack, T.D Bank Global Head Sustainability and Corporate Citizen

also
1.Kingston and the Islands, Ted Hsu, the former Liberal M.P for the riding from 2011-2015 (and the only PhD physicist in Parliament at the time) was previously the Morgan Stanley Tokyo Office Executive Director

2.Mississauga-East Cooksville, Dipika Demela the MPP up to the 2018 election who is running again was an RBC Corporate Banker

Apart from Catherine Mosca in Oshawa, all of those have a good chance of being elected too.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/JPTasker/status/1488930514123829254?t=SLsXEr3S-Hy2yyU-ceqYxA...

Here we go!

[beesley]

A bigger margin that was expected, based on what people are saying.

Let's hope he's not the last Conservative leader to be no confidenced this year.

[beesley]

Unusually, this process was not an internally sanctioned one but actually part of a bill that Conservative MPs voted in favour of.

[beesley]

Pierre Poilievre has announced he's running for "Prime Minister", without even mentioning Conservative leader. He's obviously doing the Trump strategy of gutting the party as an institution and turning it into his personality cult. Also, he may need to remember that his own constituents are also Ottawans who also incensed by what occurring in the downtown core, and that he came within a heartbeat of having to find an actual job in 2015.

Are the electoral boundaries getting redrawn before 2025? If he wants to eliminate the slim possibility of losing his riding, he could use that as an excuse to move to a safer one. He should be pretty safe though, and if he loses badly enough to lose his own riding maybe he would want to be out of politics.

Not sure of the exact figures but it seems plausible to me that Ottawa has enough population that means one riding (almost certainly his) will take in parts of rural Eastern Ontario outside the city limits.

[beesley]

I don't support the broader 'truckers', but good on Joel Lightbound.

[beesley]

I don't support the broader 'truckers', but good on Joel Lightbound.

I find it more than a little odd that many of the same people who are praising Lightbound also criticized Prime Minister Trudeau for exercising his free speech rights in telling it like it is in regards to the Ottawa occupiers/terrorists, and said that if Trudeau had just self censored that these terrorists' feelings wouldn't have been hurt.

Well, no need to quote me, since I am not one of those people, and haven't been politicising this.

[beesley]

That actually strikes me as a contextually worse poll for Quebec Solidaire than anyone else.

If PCQ's vote is evenly spread it could be a nothing burger. But I would still guess they could make inroads in Quebec City if this number is remotely true. I would assume this is not simply a case of answering 'BC Conservatives'.