Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[King of Kensington]

The NDP vote will surely be cannibalized in Toronto Centre  next election. Best to focus efforts on Davenport and PHP.

And Danforth, no?

Just regaining the traditional strongholds will be a victory of sorts.  The challenge gets imminently harder than that in the next tier seats of University-Rosedale (esp with Chrystia Freeland there), Toronto Centre and Beaches-East York.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP vote will surely be cannibalized in Toronto Centre  next election. Best to focus efforts on Davenport and PHP.

And Danforth, no?

Just regaining the traditional strongholds will be a victory of sorts.  The challenge gets imminently harder than that in the next tier seats of University-Rosedale (esp with Chrystia Freeland there), Toronto Centre and Beaches-East York.

For sure. For some reason, I thought PHP was closer than Danforth in 2019, but I was wrong. 

[DC Al Fine]

Iain Rankin was sworn in as Premier of Nova Scotia yesterday, which makes Justin Trudeau the longest serving head of government in the country now.

[Don Vito Corleone]

Truly wonder what is going to happen next.

To all the canadians, who is going to win the next election for now?

Easily Trudeau, likely with a majority.  The conservatives have a serious geography problem.  They will win by huge margins in the Prairies and rural southern Ontario, but they will still lose in the GTA suburbs where it counts.

It also seems like a lot depends on what Quebec does. I think one of the most disappointing aspects of the 2019 election was the return of the Bloc. I watched some of the 2011 elections returns and the general thinking was "good riddance" to the Bloc. That may be true in terms of vote total for separatism, but certainly not true in terms of seats in the Commons.

Is it fair to assume Trudeau would've had a Majority Government had the Bloc not spiked so much?

I believe so, yes. It's not a sure thing to be certain, but the Liberals only needed 13 more seats to win a majority, and given the rise of the Bloc blocked (heh) them from picking up quite a few seats in Quebec that they quite rightly thought they would pick up, I think it's fair to assume that.

It is worth nothing though that the Bloc's actual support didn't come much from the Liberals, their support basically stayed flat. However, the Bloc was eating so much from the Tories that the Liberals previously had a lot of seats they could have won even with a low overall % due to the splits which they had to write off.

[beesley]

Iain Rankin was sworn in as Premier of Nova Scotia yesterday, which makes Justin Trudeau the longest serving head of government in the country now.

It's inevitable given the size of the legislature, and of Nova Scotia generally, but I'm not a fan of having 2/3 of the government caucus be in the cabinet, and of the very high levels of caucus unity in Canada generally. I don't see why being placed in the cabinet is always considered a huge benefit to that constituency's representation. As important as it is to have a regionally and demographically balanced cabinet I'd argue it has a minimal representation boost for the ridings themselves distinct from the province as a whole.

[mileslunn]

Leger came out with a Yukon poll and it was 33% NDP, 32% Yukon Party, and 31% Liberals https://www.whitehorsestar.com/News/liberals-have-no-comment-on-poll which seems a bit surprising as Yukon on both vaccinations and virus has done quite well so would have thought government would be polling highly.  Off course quite possible its a rogue poll as Yukon is always tough to poll and local candidates carry a lot of clout.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yukon polling is generally dubious, and I'm surprised undecideds are only at 14%. Also surprised they were able to do a survey of 600 people in the territory.

[beesley]

The NDP vote will surely be cannibalized in Toronto Centre  next election. Best to focus efforts on Davenport and PHP.

And Danforth, no?

Just regaining the traditional strongholds will be a victory of sorts.  The challenge gets imminently harder than that in the next tier seats of University-Rosedale (esp with Chrystia Freeland there), Toronto Centre and Beaches-East York.

There's a reason why Rosario Marchese etc. all lost, no. It's not just the NDP didn't perform well in 2019, the area is becoming more Liberal. I'd be surprised if they won any of them federally at current polling, though provincially I think the PHP, Danforth and Davenport are still fairly safe given the Liberal numbers there.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP vote will surely be cannibalized in Toronto Centre  next election. Best to focus efforts on Davenport and PHP.

And Danforth, no?

Just regaining the traditional strongholds will be a victory of sorts.  The challenge gets imminently harder than that in the next tier seats of University-Rosedale (esp with Chrystia Freeland there), Toronto Centre and Beaches-East York.

There's a reason why Rosario Marchese etc. all lost, no. It's not just the NDP didn't perform well in 2019, the area is becoming more Liberal. I'd be surprised if they won any of them federally at current polling, though provincially I think the PHP, Danforth and Davenport are still fairly safe given the Liberal numbers there.

An NDP win in Davenport should not be a surprise - the NDP will be throwing everything at the riding in order to make up the 2500 votes it lost by.

A bit dubious to say downtown Toronto is trending Liberal. Perhaps it is, as it's becoming more expensive to live there. But, it's not the first time the NDP has been shutout for 2 elections straight in the region. In fact, they didn't win a single seat in Toronto between 1993 and 2000. And they only won a seat in 2004 because Jack himself was running in one, and he barely won it at that.

Marchese et al lost in 2014 because the party fractured as it pivoted to win over blue collar voters rather than focus on their progressive base. Meanwhile, the Liberals ran their most left wing provincial campaign in history. Trudeau has also run to the left of past Liberal campaigns too, so no wonder he was able keep those seats. It's not a given that he will continue to do so though, as progressives may begin growing weary of his fake wokeism.

[King of Kensington]

Andrew Cash lost Davenport by around 1,400 votes in both 2015 and 2019.  In some ways Davenport looks like Trinity-Spadina ca. 1997.

Note also that Davenport was much less gentrified in the Alexa McDonough and early Layton days, and the first (and only) time they won it was when Cash won it in 2011.  

[njwes]

Re: Yukon, is there a huge policy platform difference between the Yukon Party and the Yukon Liberal Party? Or is it sort of like the situation in some of the Atlantic provinces where the actual differences (ideologically/policy-wise, that is) between the PC parties and the Liberals aren't necessarily so big?

[2952-0-0]

Ladies and gentlemen, the Conservative Party's health critic:
https://twitter.com/bruceanderson/status/1365748285256978441

[mileslunn]

The NDP vote will surely be cannibalized in Toronto Centre  next election. Best to focus efforts on Davenport and PHP.

And Danforth, no?

Just regaining the traditional strongholds will be a victory of sorts.  The challenge gets imminently harder than that in the next tier seats of University-Rosedale (esp with Chrystia Freeland there), Toronto Centre and Beaches-East York.

There's a reason why Rosario Marchese etc. all lost, no. It's not just the NDP didn't perform well in 2019, the area is becoming more Liberal. I'd be surprised if they won any of them federally at current polling, though provincially I think the PHP, Danforth and Davenport are still fairly safe given the Liberal numbers there.

An NDP win in Davenport should not be a surprise - the NDP will be throwing everything at the riding in order to make up the 2500 votes it lost by.

A bit dubious to say downtown Toronto is trending Liberal. Perhaps it is, as it's becoming more expensive to live there. But, it's not the first time the NDP has been shutout for 2 elections straight in the region. In fact, they didn't win a single seat in Toronto between 1993 and 2000. And they only won a seat in 2004 because Jack himself was running in one, and he barely won it at that.

Marchese et al lost in 2014 because the party fractured as it pivoted to win over blue collar voters rather than focus on their progressive base. Meanwhile, the Liberals ran their most left wing provincial campaign in history. Trudeau has also run to the left of past Liberal campaigns too, so no wonder he was able keep those seats. It's not a given that he will continue to do so though, as progressives may begin growing weary of his fake wokeism.

I think downtown Toronto is your promiscuous progressive area and so big swings from Liberals to NDP and vice versa can happen easily.  Main goal of people here is to keep Tories out of office and they are largely indifferent to which of the two wins.  Off course if Liberals returned to the more centrist to centre-right like under Chretien/Martin then you might see these become more solidly NDP.  But as long as Liberals remain centre-left like they are under Trudeau and Wynne, I think they will go for whichever party is most likely to defeat Tories nationally and perhaps maybe go NDP if Liberals are ahead and no threat of a Tory win or a Tory win is a foregone conclusion.  It seems Liberals do best there when they are main alternative to Tories and polls are close.

[King of Kensington]

Chretien was a fiscal conservative and not at all "woke."  Alexa McDonough's NDP had an appeal to culturally liberal urbanites, for which the old riding of Trinity-Spadina was the epicenter (now Spadina-Fort York and the western 2/3 of University-Rosedale).    

In the Chretien years, Trinity-Spadina and Danforth were represented by "Tammany Hall" style Catholic Liberal MPs who weren't exactly good fits for the Annex and Riverdale. 

[King of Kensington]

Should also add that unlike Vancouver, which has a stronger CCF-NDP history and less complex socioeconomic geography (east vs. west), Toronto lacks a such thing as a safe federal NDP seat.  Certainly nothing like Van East and Kingsway. 

[beesley]

Should also add that unlike Vancouver, which has a stronger CCF-NDP history and less complex socioeconomic geography (east vs. west), Toronto lacks a such thing as a safe federal NDP seat.  Certainly nothing like Van East and Kingsway. 

What's the main reason poor ridings like Humber River-Black Creek are so consistently Liberal (bar 2018 provincially)? Italian Canadians?

[King of Kensington]

Toronto's NW quadrant (York South-Weston, Humber River-Black Creek, Etobicoke North) is the city's main Black concentration.  HRBC is about 75% visible minorities and Blacks are the largest VM group there.  Black Canadians are probably the most Liberal voting demographic in the country.  

[King of Kensington]

South Asians, the largest VM group in the GTA (and Canada), are also super-Liberal.

[DC Al Fine]

Toronto's NW quadrant (York South-Weston, Humber River-Black Creek, Etobicoke North) is the city's main Black concentration.  HBRC is about 75% visible minorities and Blacks are the largest VM group there.  Black Canadians are probably the most Liberal voting demographic in the country.  

You're right, but it's funny to hear, because in Nova Scotia, they tend to vote NDP.

[King of Kensington]

African Nova Scotian communities (North Preston, Cherry Brook/East Preston) in the last federal election:

Liberals  55.1%
NDP  27.3%
Conservatives  9.3%
Greens  6.1%

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=327662.msg7546766#msg7546766

[mileslunn]

I cannot think of any country in Western world where parties on right do well amongst Black community.  Pretty sure Tories despite doing poorly do better than GOP does and probably I suspect Black support for Tories in Canada is more in line with what it is in UK with Tories than for GOP in US.  In UK, Tories get about 20% Black support which is probably depending on election similar for Canada but obviously varies on how they do overall.  I suspect Doug Ford probably got in high 20s and NDP probably won Black vote in 2018 provincial election.

South Asians tend to be pretty Liberal although from exit polls I have seen, is somewhat a religious divide.  Don't know how Christians amongst them vote, but I know Sikhs and Muslims go mostly Liberal with NDP in second and Tories doing quite poorly whereas amongst Hindus, Tory support tends to be closer to whatever they have nationally/provincially. 

Amongst Italians, most are now second generation so I don't think they vote as a block like they once did.  Still probably favour Liberals, but certainly can go Conservative, see Vaughan.  Maybe not like US where they've swung heavily to GOP, see Staten Island.

Coalitions of 90s were much different than today.  Liberals back then generally had a strong lock on not just visible minorities, but also Catholics, Jewish, and linguistic minorities and that is much less case today.  Likewise NDP was strong amongst blue collar union members whereas today much of that has drifted over to Tories while in exchange NDP base is more your millennial, urban, unmarried, university educated types.  For Tories, they always did well in Alberta, but historically before rise of Reform Party, did much better with Bay Street types than they do today.  Like many countries, income used to play a much bigger role in voting patterns, whereas today it seems things like urban vs. rural; married with children vs. not; education level play a bigger role in determining vote than one's income.  Part could be back in 90s, top tax bracket kicked in at 60K vs. its present 215K so it hit a lot more people thus reducing taxes on top earners had a much wider appeal than it does today as number in top bracket is too small to really have any electoral impact whereas at 60K in 90s that was a large enough chunk of population it could swing several ridings. 

Also right moving from traditional fiscal conservatism to populism has alienated many upper middle income suburban types like you see in US, but allowed it to gain many working class voters it couldn't win historically.  Its why ridings like Oshawa, Essex, Niagara Centre, Brantford-Brant, Kootenay-Columbia are more likely to vote Tory than ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton or North Vancouver.

[Estrella]

Something I have just found out that sounds absolutely ridiculous, like something Kafka would come up with, but it's actually true: throughout history, Canada has had 55 Superintendents-General of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Indian Affairs/Ministers of Crown-Indigenous Relations or some variations thereof. Of these fifty-five ministers, a grand total of zero (0) were actually Indigenous.

[King of Kensington]

Scarborough-Guildwood is a fairly "typical" lower income outer Toronto riding, around 70% visible minorities, about 30% South Asian and 15% Black.  

In the last federal election it went:

Liberals  61%
Conservatives  22%
NDP 11%

However it defied the trend in the last provincial election, where Mitzie Hunter, a high profile Black Ontario Liberal MPP, hung on.

[King of Kensington]

I cannot think of any country in Western world where parties on right do well amongst Black community.  Pretty sure Tories despite doing poorly do better than GOP does and probably I suspect Black support for Tories in Canada is more in line with what it is in UK with Tories than for GOP in US.  In UK, Tories get about 20% Black support which is probably depending on election similar for Canada but obviously varies on how they do overall.  I suspect Doug Ford probably got in high 20s and NDP probably won Black vote in 2018 provincial election.

Yes, the Black vote likely went NDP in the provincial, which became more of  a "Labour vs. Tory" type scenario following the Liberal collapse (though interestingly 2 Black Liberal MPPs were among the 7 holdouts).  A sizeable number of Black MPPs were elected for the NDP.  

South Asians tend to be pretty Liberal although from exit polls I have seen, is somewhat a religious divide.  Don't know how Christians amongst them vote, but I know Sikhs and Muslims go mostly Liberal with NDP in second and Tories doing quite poorly whereas amongst Hindus, Tory support tends to be closer to whatever they have nationally/provincially.

Sikhs seem more NDP than non-Sikhs, but a distant second behind the Liberals (compare the NDP vote share in Brampton to other parts of the GTA).  Sri Lankan Tamils seem a bit swingy - very pro-Trudeau Liberals but also giving the NDP under Jack Layton a try in 2011 and Ford's PCs in 2018 provincial.  Indian Hindus are probably the most conservative, but don't seem to really concentrate anywhere.  South Asian Muslims are very anti-Conservative, with NDP in second.

Amongst Italians, most are now second generation so I don't think they vote as a block like they once did.  Still probably favour Liberals, but certainly can go Conservative, see Vaughan.  Maybe not like US where they've swung heavily to GOP, see Staten Island.

Or third generation at this point.  GTA Italians probably have a bit of a Liberal lean, but not dramatic.  The further out in the suburbs, the more conservative it seems.  King-Vaughan is about 1/3 Italian and was very close in the last federal election.  Liberals won it 45%-43% or around 1000 votes, not your typical GTA Liberal landslide.

Coalitions of 90s were much different than today.  Liberals back then generally had a strong lock on not just visible minorities, but also Catholics, Jewish, and linguistic minorities and that is much less case today.  Likewise NDP was strong amongst blue collar union members whereas today much of that has drifted over to Tories while in exchange NDP base is more your millennial, urban, unmarried, university educated types.

Yes South Asians have certainly replaced Italian Canadians as the most visible ethnic politicians in the Liberal Party.  Italians are also more on the "blue" side of the Liberal Party and probably don't care much for Trudeau's "wokeness."  I doubt Trudeau's campaign advisers give an ounce of thought to "the Italian vote" as it barely matters anymore.

As for NDP, I don't think Alexa McDonough really had much more of a unionized, blue collar base than Singh and also had a bit of an appeal to university-educated, culturally liberal urbanites.  Trinity-Spadina was the best Ontario riding for the NDP in 1997.   The Reform Party also had a lot of appeal to blue collar voters especially in BC but took a lot of votes in Ontario's "rust belt" too.

For Tories, they always did well in Alberta, but historically before rise of Reform Party, did much better with Bay Street types than they do today.  Like many countries, income used to play a much bigger role in voting patterns, whereas today it seems things like urban vs. rural; married with children vs. not; education level play a bigger role in determining vote than one's income.  Part could be back in 90s, top tax bracket kicked in at 60K vs. its present 215K so it hit a lot more people thus reducing taxes on top earners had a much wider appeal than it does today as number in top bracket is too small to really have any electoral impact whereas at 60K in 90s that was a large enough chunk of population it could swing several ridings.  

Also right moving from traditional fiscal conservatism to populism has alienated many upper middle income suburban types like you see in US, but allowed it to gain many working class voters it couldn't win historically.  Its why ridings like Oshawa, Essex, Niagara Centre, Brantford-Brant, Kootenay-Columbia are more likely to vote Tory than ridings like Burlington, Kanata-Carleton or North Vancouver.

And this is where O'Toole's strategy comes in.  

[Beneath the Levee]

Canada is in some ways the inverse of the U.S, where the liberals have the problem of geographic concentration.