Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[njwes]

Would Prairies + southern Ontario + (maybe 1/2) of the Atlantic seats be anywhere near enough to reach a majority?

[2952-0-0]

Would Prairies + southern Ontario + (maybe 1/2) of the Atlantic seats be anywhere near enough to reach a majority?

The easiest path for a Conservative majority would be Harper's. A major breakthrough in the GTA well into the City of Toronto, as well as Metro Vancouver, would be required. At least a dozen seats in the Maritimes would need to be won as well.

[2952-0-0]

Weeks after the Conservatives dumped Derek Sloan, a long-time wingnut Cheryl Gallant has been exposed for some online musings about the Great Reset, cultural Marxism, that the (((Liberals))) are pedophiles, that the Liberals are in cahoots with big tech to control the media, and that Trudeau himself spread the coronavirus.

https://twitter.com/MarkGerretsen/status/1363096044343558147

https://twitter.com/JenOConnell_/status/1362824739891392519

https://twitter.com/WaytowichNeil/status/1362929233782259712

[King of Kensington]

What's with Eastern Ontario? There's also the independent (ex-PC) MPP Randy Hillier.

[njwes]

O'Toole seems like a decent fit for Atlantic Canada.

I would assume so too! That's why I asked--but maybe what's good for Atlantic Canada would be counterproductive in and around Toronto proper and Metro Vancouver?

[politicallefty]

Truly wonder what is going to happen next.

To all the canadians, who is going to win the next election for now?

Easily Trudeau, likely with a majority.  The conservatives have a serious geography problem.  They will win by huge margins in the Prairies and rural southern Ontario, but they will still lose in the GTA suburbs where it counts.

It also seems like a lot depends on what Quebec does. I think one of the most disappointing aspects of the 2019 election was the return of the Bloc. I watched some of the 2011 elections returns and the general thinking was "good riddance" to the Bloc. That may be true in terms of vote total for separatism, but certainly not true in terms of seats in the Commons.

Is it fair to assume Trudeau would've had a Majority Government had the Bloc not spiked so much?

[DC Al Fine]

Truly wonder what is going to happen next.

To all the canadians, who is going to win the next election for now?

Easily Trudeau, likely with a majority.  The conservatives have a serious geography problem.  They will win by huge margins in the Prairies and rural southern Ontario, but they will still lose in the GTA suburbs where it counts.

It also seems like a lot depends on what Quebec does. I think one of the most disappointing aspects of the 2019 election was the return of the Bloc. I watched some of the 2011 elections returns and the general thinking was "good riddance" to the Bloc. That may be true in terms of vote total for separatism, but certainly not true in terms of seats in the Commons.

Is it fair to assume Trudeau would've had a Majority Government had the Bloc not spiked so much?

I don't think so. It would probably have been just a stronger minority. The Liberals were more or less flat in their Quebec popular vote and only lost five seats.  If you look at the Bloc resurgence, it was primarily at the expense of the the NDP (compared to the 2015 election) or the Tories (compared to polling earlier in 2019), i.e. they picked up the sort of soft nationalist voters who aren't inclined to vote Liberal either provincially and federally. Even with a more favourable vote split, the Liberals almost certainly wouldn't have won the ~ 60/78 seats needed in Quebec to get a working majority on 35% of the vote.

[beesley]

Truly wonder what is going to happen next.

To all the canadians, who is going to win the next election for now?

Easily Trudeau, likely with a majority.  The conservatives have a serious geography problem.  They will win by huge margins in the Prairies and rural southern Ontario, but they will still lose in the GTA suburbs where it counts.

It also seems like a lot depends on what Quebec does. I think one of the most disappointing aspects of the 2019 election was the return of the Bloc. I watched some of the 2011 elections returns and the general thinking was "good riddance" to the Bloc. That may be true in terms of vote total for separatism, but certainly not true in terms of seats in the Commons.

Is it fair to assume Trudeau would've had a Majority Government had the Bloc not spiked so much?

I don't think so. It would probably have been just a stronger minority. The Liberals were more or less flat in their Quebec popular vote and only lost five seats.  If you look at the Bloc resurgence, it was primarily at the expense of the the NDP (compared to the 2015 election) or the Tories (compared to polling earlier in 2019), i.e. they picked up the sort of soft nationalist voters who aren't inclined to vote Liberal either provincially and federally. Even with a more favourable vote split, the Liberals almost certainly wouldn't have won the ~ 60/78 seats needed in Quebec to get a working majority on 35% of the vote.

In seat terms they would've still lost some anyway even without a huge resurgence, as Avignon-LM-M-M and Saint Jean were that far gone for them.

O'Toole seems like a decent fit for Atlantic Canada.

He does have links to Nova Scotia. He went out there as recently as 2017 to campaign for the local PCs.

[CumbrianLefty]

Weeks after the Conservatives dumped Derek Sloan, a long-time wingnut Cheryl Gallant has been exposed for some online musings about the Great Reset, cultural Marxism, that the (((Liberals))) are pedophiles, that the Liberals are in cahoots with big tech to control the media, and that Trudeau himself spread the coronavirus.

https://twitter.com/MarkGerretsen/status/1363096044343558147

https://twitter.com/JenOConnell_/status/1362824739891392519

https://twitter.com/WaytowichNeil/status/1362929233782259712

Anything happened yet?

[Hatman 🍁]

We've known about Cheryl Gallant's kookiness for decades now. Nothing new. I know die hard conservatives in her riding who won't even vote for her due to her views. Doesn't stop her from winning easily each time, though it does cost her 10-20% of the vote (compare her pv share with the less controversial John Yakabuski who holds the seat provincially)

[2952-0-0]

We've known about Cheryl Gallant's kookiness for decades now. Nothing new. I know die hard conservatives in her riding who won't even vote for her due to her views. Doesn't stop her from winning easily each time, though it does cost her 10-20% of the vote (compare her pv share with the less controversial John Yakabuski who holds the seat provincially)

True, but the events of the past year have acted as a magnet that dragged their wingnuttery further off the deep end. Increased scrutiny about the far-right created ample fodder for the Liberal oppo research team.

I'm grabbing the popcorn for O'Toole's reaction. It's a lose-lose choice for him.

[King of Kensington]

The easiest path for a Conservative majority would be Harper's. A major breakthrough in the GTA well into the City of Toronto, as well as Metro Vancouver, would be required. At least a dozen seats in the Maritimes would need to be won as well.

The suburbs of the GTA and Metro Van are increasingly out of reach for the Tories.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

O'Toole is younger than Trudeau but he looks twenty years older or so, like he's about to be on his deathbed. I have to imagine that this harms him to a degree.

[2952-0-0]

The Commons is voting on a resolution that declares China's mass internment of Uyghurs as a genocide, and requests relocation of the Winter Olympics for next year.

The Conservatives, Bloc, Greens, and NDP are in favour. Many Liberal MPs have stated they are voting in favour too.

The Cabinet members are no-showing the vote.

[Hash]

Anti-Racist and Anti-Islamophobia Trudeau makes a strong stance by... not showing up to vote on labelling an ongoing genocide a genocide. Good to know!

The funniest moment of the vote was this:

https://twitter.com/Gray_Mackenzie/status/1363957132731760647

[DC Al Fine]

In Jeff Foxworthy style:

"You might be an empty suit if Derek Sloan takes a stronger antiracist stance than you."

[King of Kensington]

Re: Toronto Centre, another problem facing Annamie Paul is that the NDP is a bit "bullish" on Toronto Centre, making any sort of unite the left of the Liberal vote difficult.  In both the most recent federal an  provincial elections and it was their best riding outside the "big three" (Danforth, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park).  It's arguably the most left of the three downtown seats.

[PSOL]

Is Annamie Paul governing anyway differently than Elizabeth May?

[King of Kensington]

"governing"?

[PSOL]

"governing"?

Of the party

[DC Al Fine]

Anti-Racist and Anti-Islamophobia Trudeau makes a strong stance by... not showing up to vote on labelling an ongoing genocide a genocide. Good to know!

The funniest moment of the vote was this:

https://twitter.com/Gray_Mackenzie/status/1363957132731760647

Profiles in courage

[Hatman 🍁]

Re: Toronto Centre, another problem facing Annamie Paul is that the NDP is a bit "bullish" on Toronto Centre, making any sort of unite the left of the Liberal vote difficult.  In both the most recent federal an  provincial elections and it was their best riding outside the "big three" (Danforth, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park).  It's arguably the most left of the three downtown seats.

The NDP vote will surely be cannibalized in Toronto Centre  next election. Best to focus efforts on Davenport and PHP.

[DC Al Fine]

Re: Toronto Centre, another problem facing Annamie Paul is that the NDP is a bit "bullish" on Toronto Centre, making any sort of unite the left of the Liberal vote difficult.  In both the most recent federal an  provincial elections and it was their best riding outside the "big three" (Danforth, Davenport, Parkdale-High Park).  It's arguably the most left of the three downtown seats.

The NDP vote will surely be cannibalized in Toronto Centre  next election. Best to focus efforts on Davenport and PHP.

Agreed. The Liberals hold the seat and the Greens are running their leader. The NDP aren't going to be able to peel off enough of the promiscuous progressive vote in those circumstances to be competitive. The only reason for the NDP to put a strong effort in Toronto Centre right now is specifically to try and stop the Greens from becoming a more credible option for the left-of-Liberal voter.

[njwes]

Did the Olympics/Uighur resolution pass?

[DC Al Fine]

Did the Olympics/Uighur resolution pass?

Overwhelmingly, but the Cabinet abstained, hence Hashemite and I trashing the government.