Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[King of Kensington]

I think Tories are in a bigger rut due to shift in public opinion.  Liberals have never really been anchored to anyone ideology so they can shift whichever way wind blows.  People may be upset about Liberals being late on vaccines, but I think general fear and mistrust of Tories means they have to mess up really badly to lose.  A bad rollout probably means a minority instead of majority.

In last decade, the base has become even more right wing so any more moderation risks creating another split on right.  By same token median voter has moved even further left so your Blue Liberal/Red Tory demographic exists but much smaller than they've been in the past.  Essentially I would argue gap between median voter and Tory base is too large to bridge thus why they cannot win in the near future.  Whereas 10 years ago it was a challenge but at least possible to bridge it.

I also think pandemic has created perfect storm to make big government popular so what can Tories run on?  Social and cultural conservatism has always been a vote loser in Canada.  Fiscal conservatism was once a vote winner but not now.  And trying to be like Liberals won't work as people will just vote for real one.  Thus I think failure to win in 2019 means party missed its opportunity and will likely be in opposition for quite some time.

As for provincial conservative parties, PCs in Atlantic Canada and CAQ doing well but there is enough daylight between them and federal Tories.  Ford is doing okay and would probably win a majority if held today, but I would say he is more vulnerable than Trudeau is.  Pallister is definitely in trouble, but time to recover and besides not likely to run again in 2023.  The one advantage of Manitoba is PCs more or less have a lock on rural ridings outside North so that is 40% of seats right there.  Next time NDP wins in Manitoba, it will probably be by a near sweep of Winnipeg.

For Saskatchewan, Moe's approval has slid a bit, but I think Saskatchewan will probably replace Alberta as Canada's most Conservative province if it hasn't already.  Kenney is very unpopular and I would say at this point, Notley is probably favoured to win in 2023.  Not a certainty, but I don't buy idea when right is united they automatically win in Alberta.  That may have once been true but not anymore.  Real question is when does Edmonton and Calgary at federal level start voting like other cities their size?  It still leans heavily Tory, but in another decade, I could see Liberals or NDP being competitive in two cities.

It seems like Canada is moving a bit toward an American-style "progressive" vs. "conservative" polarization, but less balanced.  Conservatives are increasingly torn between the median voter and their base.  Roughly 55% are consistently Liberal/NDP/Green, 30-35% Conservative.  

[2952-0-0]

It seems like Canada is moving a bit toward an American-style "progressive" vs. "conservative" polarization, but less balanced.

To some extent. But, Canada is the only country in the world where everyone - politicians, pundits, voters - is on a conspiracy to separate federal and provincial politics. Don and Mary from Oakville swooned over Justin's hair in 2015, voted for a dollar-store Trump in 2018, and then voted somewhat grudgingly for Trudeau again in 2019. Their alter-egos in Oakland County, Michigan would never think of voting likewise.

The US is so polarized because both parties have an iron-clad floor of 47%, and know that their path to victory requires charging up their own base and convincing a tiny fraction of genuine swing voters. In Canada, the multiple parties at the federal level know that their floor is too low to play this same game, so they must appeal to a much larger segment of swing voters.

Conservatives are increasingly torn between the median voter and their base.  Roughly 55% are consistently Liberal/NDP/Green, 30-35% Conservative.  

I think the Conservatives have had this problem since the founding of the modern party in 2003.

Harper was successful at bridging the median voter and the base because the Liberals were in disarray and the NDP had a charismatic leader, and the Harper minorities were rather uncontroversial, leading to the majority in 2011.

Both Scheer and O'Toole became leader by overtaking the "establishment" candidate through the party's preferential voting system and appealing to the so-con base.

When all three became leader, they quickly moved to silence the most embarrassing wingnuts in the party, betting that the so-cons will still vote for them. Then their path to victory includes firing up the base while dangling some boutique tax cuts for Don and Mary.

Harper succeeded in both, partly thanks to his ruthlessness. Scheer did so well at the former, and so badly at the latter, that he lost while winning the popular vote. O'Toole is firing up the base, but has done nothing to appeal to Don and Mary as of yet.

[Don Vito Corleone]

I agree with whoever said O'Toole needs to pivot to talking about economic recovery. I think that is a more potent line of attack than anything actually related to the Pandemic by itself.

[Hatman 🍁]

Poll by polls from Toronto Centre for selected areas.

Church-Wellesley (Gay Village)

Liberals  1,987  42%
Greens  1,396  30%
NDP  954  20%

St. James Town

Liberals  1,042  59%
NDP  278  16%
Greens  260  15%

Cabbagetown

Greens  891  55%
Liberals  505  31%
NDP  159  10%

I'm surprised no one has mapped this yet. The Greens can make some inroads into the Gay Village, I think. Would be interesting to see what the turnout swings are. If it went down more in St. Jamestown than the rest of the riding, this is good news for the Liberals, as they can count on these voters coming back into the fold.

[King of Kensington]

It may have - while somewhat imperfect I have around 1,800 votes cast in St. James Town and 1,600 in Cabbagetown.  

[King of Kensington]

Not buying this "Peter MacKay would be doing better" line.  MacKay may be "moderate" or whatever but I don't think he'd have better talking points than "show us the contracts" and "we would have been better than Trudeau."  The electorate has shifted leftward.

[DabbingSanta]

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/travel-restictions-border-1.5911845

Beginning next week, all Canadians arriving in the country from abroad will be forced to spend time at a makeshift quarantine facility at their own expense.  The change comes weeks after Trudeau ordered all international flights on route to the Caribbean be cancelled.  People with a negative PCR test and vaccinated people will not be exempt.  People can cut their stay in the facility short to just 3 days by taking a COVID test.  Those freed following negative results will spend another two weeks in voluntary confinement at their homes. Those who test positive will be stuck in the quarantine facilities untik they recover.  This is another policy in blatant violation of our charter of rights and freedoms.  When will we say enough is enough?  We have been putting up with this for a year, and despite policies loosening elsewhere, Canada still seems to be following the advice of alarmists at the expense of their citizens.

[King of Kensington]

Mark Carney has joined Twitter:

https://twitter.com/MarkJCarney

[Hatman 🍁]

It may have - while somewhat imperfect I have around 1,800 votes cast in St. James Town and 1,600 in Cabbagetown.  

This actually inspired me to make some maps yesterday (not exactly the right thread for these, but whatevs)

[King of Kensington]

It's the perfect place for it.

[King of Kensington]

Mark Carney has joined Twitter:

https://twitter.com/MarkJCarney

Will Carolyn Bennett retire and open up the "prestige" riding of St. Paul's?

[DC Al Fine]

Mark Carney has joined Twitter:

https://twitter.com/MarkJCarney

Will Carolyn Bennett retire and open up the "prestige" riding of St. Paul's?

He must be annoyed that Draghi beat him to becoming Prime Minister

[NewYorkExpress]

Canada is moving towards passing sweeping gun control legislation.

Canada is expected to pass sweeping gun reform legislation, including a measure that allows municipalities to ban handguns.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced the new measures on Tuesday, a sweeping package that builds on a ban of more than 1,500 assault-style firearms.

Trudeau said at a news conference on Tuesday that the country would move forward with a buyback program “in the coming months.”


The proposals include the Canadian government supporting municipalities that restrict storage and transportation of handguns within their boundaries. Breaching these bylaws would carry a maximum penalty of two years in prison and a possible revocation.

Another proposal would create “red flag” and “yellow flag” laws that would make it easier for concerned friends and relatives to petition courts for the immediate removal of a firearm or to ask a chief firearms officer to suspend and review a person’s license for firearms.

In addition, the bill would increase penalties for firearms trafficking and smuggling from 10 years to 14 years in prison, as well as allow the Royal Canadian Mounted Police and local law enforcement to share licensing and registration data to investigate or prosecute firearms trafficking offenses.

[King of Kensington]

I looked at Regent Park as well.

Liberals  1,164  49%
Greens  636  27%
NDP  409  17%

The area has changed a lot with Regent's "redevelopment" and it also includes some coops, private housing in Treffan Court etc.

[King of Kensington]

The Conservatives want us to "meet" Erin O'Toole, telling us he isn't a career politician and neglects to mention that his father was an MPP under Mike Harris.

https://meet.erinotoole.ca/

[2952-0-0]

The Conservatives want us to "meet" Erin O'Toole, telling us he isn't a career politician and neglects to mention that his father was an MPP under Mike Harris.

https://meet.erinotoole.ca/

Abacus says that among Liberal and NDP voters, the approval of their respective party leaders is above 80%.

For O'Toole, it's 62%, and that was comparable to Ignatieff.

https://twitter.com/gtlem/status/1358096491638894592

The more people get to know him, the worse his numbers.

[Don Vito Corleone]

What on earth is happening to O'Toole? I don't think he's doing a terrible job, or at least bad enough to warrant his numbers. Can someone explain why they're so low? Is the Tory image problem just that bad?

[DC Al Fine]

What on earth is happening to O'Toole? I don't think he's doing a terrible job, or at least bad enough to warrant his numbers. Can someone explain why they're so low? Is the Tory image problem just that bad?

Within the Tories? I'd suggest a few things:

First, unlike Stephen Harper and to a lesser extent Andrew Scheer, he has failed to keep the various right-of-Blue-Tory factions happy, which were recently emboldened by the leadership race. There's a narrative that I've seen on Atlas and in the media that goes something like "X group is a small, shrinking minority in the Tories. They need to sit at the back of the bus and let the younger, socially progressive branch of the party set the tone and take their occasional scraps" and I think socons, nationalists etc had absorbed it to a certain extent. Then the leadership race happened, completely shattering the narrative. Sloan and especially Lewis, surpassed everyone's expectations and got more votes than than Peter MacKay (and anecdotally speaking, Lewis' crowd was decidedly younger and more diverse than say MacKay's). It's obvious that he got is job thanks to those further right groups. They know it and expect to be rewarded by O'Toole, which he generally hasn't.

Second, he's bounced around a lot between ideologies, which always annoys lots of people. He started as a soft red, then when his path to victory required running to the right of MacKay, he shifted to the "True Blue" doctrinaire orthodox conservative approach. Now that he's won the leadership, he's gone with a heterodox working class conservatism (which I think is the correct approach for a Tory leader for the record, but the jump from "True Blue" was jarring).

Lastly, a non-inside-Tory-baseball reason: For a lot of Tory voters, "do you approve of the leader" basically amounts to "is the leader beating Trudeau". O'Toole obviously isn't, so a lot of normie Tory voters are annoyed about that.

[Don Vito Corleone]

What on earth is happening to O'Toole? I don't think he's doing a terrible job, or at least bad enough to warrant his numbers. Can someone explain why they're so low? Is the Tory image problem just that bad?

Within the Tories? I'd suggest a few things:

First, unlike Stephen Harper and to a lesser extent Andrew Scheer, he has failed to keep the various right-of-Blue-Tory factions happy, which were recently emboldened by the leadership race. There's a narrative that I've seen on Atlas and in the media that goes something like "X group is a small, shrinking minority in the Tories. They need to sit at the back of the bus and let the younger, socially progressive branch of the party set the tone and take their occasional scraps" and I think socons, nationalists etc had absorbed it to a certain extent. Then the leadership race happened, completely shattering the narrative. Sloan and especially Lewis, surpassed everyone's expectations and got more votes than than Peter MacKay (and anecdotally speaking, Lewis' crowd was decidedly younger and more diverse than say MacKay's). It's obvious that he got is job thanks to those further right groups. They know it and expect to be rewarded by O'Toole, which he generally hasn't.

Second, he's bounced around a lot between ideologies, which always annoys lots of people. He started as a soft red, then when his path to victory required running to the right of MacKay, he shifted to the "True Blue" doctrinaire orthodox conservative approach. Now that he's won the leadership, he's gone with a heterodox working class conservatism (which I think is the correct approach for a Tory leader for the record, but the jump from "True Blue" was jarring).

Lastly, a non-inside-Tory-baseball reason: For a lot of Tory voters, "do you approve of the leader" basically amounts to "is the leader beating Trudeau". O'Toole obviously isn't, so a lot of normie Tory voters are annoyed about that.

Everything you said makes sense, especially about how he's hurting from not besting Trudeau at present. I hadn't realized he was seen as having underserved the right-flank of the party. I will say, the idea that the SoCons were just going to roll over and allow McKay to win always seemed to ignore the fact that SoCons made up a disproportionate amount of both the membership and the donor base, and I assume they were aware of this fact.

[windjammer]

Truly wonder what is going to happen next.

To all the canadians, who is going to win the next election for now?

[CumbrianLefty]

I'n not a Canadian, but Trudeau's Liberals clearly have the edge at present.

[DabbingSanta]

Truly wonder what is going to happen next.

To all the canadians, who is going to win the next election for now?

Easily Trudeau, likely with a majority.  The conservatives have a serious geography problem.  They will win by huge margins in the Prairies and rural southern Ontario, but they will still lose in the GTA suburbs where it counts.

[njwes]

Truly wonder what is going to happen next.

To all the canadians, who is going to win the next election for now?

Easily Trudeau, likely with a majority.  The conservatives have a serious geography problem.  They will win by huge margins in the Prairies and rural southern Ontario, but they will still lose in the GTA suburbs where it counts.

Do you think there's much room for the Conservatives to win federal seats in the Maritimes and Newfoundland, or do you think they're at a ceiling after the last election? I'd think that general cultural-political realignment might make some Liberal voters there open to voting for Cons, but maybe the party is still too blue Tory for them?

[DC Al Fine]

Truly wonder what is going to happen next.

To all the canadians, who is going to win the next election for now?

Easily Trudeau, likely with a majority.  The conservatives have a serious geography problem.  They will win by huge margins in the Prairies and rural southern Ontario, but they will still lose in the GTA suburbs where it counts.

Do you think there's much room for the Conservatives to win federal seats in the Maritimes and Newfoundland, or do you think they're at a ceiling after the last election? I'd think that general cultural-political realignment might make some Liberal voters there open to voting for Cons, but maybe the party is still too blue Tory for them?

Sure. The Tories lost an entire quarter of Atlantic Canada's seats by 5% or less. A marginally better popular vote there, should give them a decent bump in seats

[King of Kensington]

O'Toole seems like a decent fit for Atlantic Canada.