Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[DC Al Fine]

So, uh Newfoundland is having an election. Looks like the Libs are running away with it. Unsurprising as all the Atlantic Premiers have been very popular during this pandemic.

[King of Kensington]

Leger poll:

Liberals  37%
Conservatives  28%
NDP  22%
BQ  7%
Greens  5%

https://2g2ckk18vixp3neolz4b6605-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/Legers-North-American-Tracker-February-1st-2021-min.pdf

(regionals on page 43)

[Hatman 🍁]

An amazing mode effect for NDP numbers between pollsters. IVR polls have them at ~15% and online polls have them at ~20%.  I suppose people who do surveys are more politically engaged, whereas those who don't pay much attention might do a robopoll, and just default to Liberal/Tory.

[King of Kensington]

Conservative numbers outside the Prairies are dreadful.

[DC Al Fine]

Conservative numbers outside the Prairies are dreadful.

I was surprised by the 55+ #'s as well. Liberals leading olds by 14 is decidedly not where the Tories need to be.

[DC Al Fine]

The NDP has paid off their campaign debt and have a bit of money now. This should increase the chance of an election a bit as forcing an election won't be financially disastrous.

[King of Kensington]

Abacus poll:

Liberals  32%
Conservatives  31%
NDP  18%
BQ  8%
Greens  7%

Still a lot of wasted Conservative votes in the Prairies.

https://abacusdata.ca/horserace-tightens-vaccines-rollout-canadian-politics-abacus-data/

[2952-0-0]

The media are all fixated on the slow vaccine rollout, and the Conservatives are gleefully making hay over this.

This will bite them in the ass, for the 63452nd time. Within a few months, production capacity will have ramped up, and the (rich) world will be awash with vaccines. Supply will no longer be an issue.

As usual, the Conservatives ridicule Trudeau and lower public expectations towards him, so that when Trudeau greatly exceeds these expectations but still doesn't perform as well as he could, these attacks backfire on them again and again.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The media are all fixated on the slow vaccine rollout, and the Conservatives are gleefully making hay over this.

This will bite them in the ass, for the 63452nd time. Within a few months, production capacity will have ramped up, and the (rich) world will be awash with vaccines. Supply will no longer be an issue.

As usual, the Conservatives ridicule Trudeau and lower public expectations towards him, so that when Trudeau greatly exceeds these expectations but still doesn't perform as well as he could, these attacks backfire on them again and again.

Yea this is starting agonizingly slow and is going to ramp up exponentially fast over the next few months. The Liberals said everyone who wants a vaccine can get one by September.

[Benjamin Frank]

The media are all fixated on the slow vaccine rollout, and the Conservatives are gleefully making hay over this.

This will bite them in the ass, for the 63452nd time. Within a few months, production capacity will have ramped up, and the (rich) world will be awash with vaccines. Supply will no longer be an issue.

As usual, the Conservatives ridicule Trudeau and lower public expectations towards him, so that when Trudeau greatly exceeds these expectations but still doesn't perform as well as he could, these attacks backfire on them again and again.

And yet the Conservatives are still stuck in the low 30s.  The Liberals have dropped according to this poll, but the Conservatives haven't budged.

[2952-0-0]

The media are all fixated on the slow vaccine rollout, and the Conservatives are gleefully making hay over this.

This will bite them in the ass, for the 63452nd time. Within a few months, production capacity will have ramped up, and the (rich) world will be awash with vaccines. Supply will no longer be an issue.

As usual, the Conservatives ridicule Trudeau and lower public expectations towards him, so that when Trudeau greatly exceeds these expectations but still doesn't perform as well as he could, these attacks backfire on them again and again.

And yet the Conservatives are still stuck in the low 30s.  The Liberals have dropped according to this poll, but the Conservatives haven't budged.

If the Conservatives weren't suffering an identity crisis, and if their staffers weren't Harper leftovers, they could very well be leading now.

Vaccine shipments will be ramping up in the coming weeks, and Trudeau will use every opportunity to promote himself. By the end of March, most Canadians will have known someone who has received the shot.

Michelle Rempel, the MP for Oklahoma, is already shifting the goalposts and claiming that Ottawa is not prepared for the flood of vaccines that it's expecting to receive by the end of March, and Erin O'Toole is pivoting to accusing the Liberals of mishandling the economy.

[King of Kensington]

If one read nothing but National Post coverage of the pandemic, you'd think Canada was a unitary state with no provincial governments.

[DabbingSanta]

I don't think the provincial election polling in Ontario has a grasp on what is happening in regards to the 2022 election. A significant portion on the right doesn't want anything to do with Doug Ford, and several third parties like the Libertarians and "New Blue" have emerged as alternatives.  Hard to believe that their share of the vote will be under 2%, especially with the Libertarians likely to run candidates in all 124 ridings.  A significant minor party turnout could result in a loss of seats and perhaps a Ford minority government for the 43rd parliament.

[mileslunn]

I think Tories are in a bigger rut due to shift in public opinion.  Liberals have never really been anchored to anyone ideology so they can shift whichever way wind blows.  People may be upset about Liberals being late on vaccines, but I think general fear and mistrust of Tories means they have to mess up really badly to lose.  A bad rollout probably means a minority instead of majority.

In last decade, the base has become even more right wing so any more moderation risks creating another split on right.  By same token median voter has moved even further left so your Blue Liberal/Red Tory demographic exists but much smaller than they've been in the past.  Essentially I would argue gap between median voter and Tory base is too large to bridge thus why they cannot win in the near future.  Whereas 10 years ago it was a challenge but at least possible to bridge it.

I also think pandemic has created perfect storm to make big government popular so what can Tories run on?  Social and cultural conservatism has always been a vote loser in Canada.  Fiscal conservatism was once a vote winner but not now.  And trying to be like Liberals won't work as people will just vote for real one.  Thus I think failure to win in 2019 means party missed its opportunity and will likely be in opposition for quite some time.

As for provincial conservative parties, PCs in Atlantic Canada and CAQ doing well but there is enough daylight between them and federal Tories.  Ford is doing okay and would probably win a majority if held today, but I would say he is more vulnerable than Trudeau is.  Pallister is definitely in trouble, but time to recover and besides not likely to run again in 2023.  The one advantage of Manitoba is PCs more or less have a lock on rural ridings outside North so that is 40% of seats right there.  Next time NDP wins in Manitoba, it will probably be by a near sweep of Winnipeg.

For Saskatchewan, Moe's approval has slid a bit, but I think Saskatchewan will probably replace Alberta as Canada's most Conservative province if it hasn't already.  Kenney is very unpopular and I would say at this point, Notley is probably favoured to win in 2023.  Not a certainty, but I don't buy idea when right is united they automatically win in Alberta.  That may have once been true but not anymore.  Real question is when does Edmonton and Calgary at federal level start voting like other cities their size?  It still leans heavily Tory, but in another decade, I could see Liberals or NDP being competitive in two cities.

[DC Al Fine]

The Nova Scotia Liberals elected Iain Rankin, MLA for Timberlea-Prospect as their new leader, replacing Premier Stephen McNeil. Rankin's election signals a shift to the left for the Liberals compared to the establishment pick Randy DeLorey and blue Liberal Labi Kousoulis.

[CumbrianLefty]

If one read nothing but National Post coverage of the pandemic, you'd think Canada was a unitary state with no provincial governments.

Let me guess, this is a right wing publication?

[DC Al Fine]

Lisa Roberts, NDP MLA for Halifax Needham announced she will be seeking the federal NDP nomination in Halifax.

[Hatman 🍁]

Lisa Roberts, NDP MLA for Halifax Needham announced she will be seeking the federal NDP nomination in Halifax.

Does she have a chance? How popular is Fillmore?

[Hash]

If one read nothing but National Post coverage of the pandemic, you'd think Canada was a unitary state with no provincial governments.

Let me guess, this is a right wing publication?

Of course. Originally founded in 1998 by convicted fraudster and Donald Trump hagiographer Conrad Black, on the basis of the older financial paper Financial Post (which is now the NP's business section).

It's now part of the Postmedia media conglomerate, founded in 2010 with the former publishing properties of Canwest. Postmedia is now owned at 66% by Chatham Asset Management, a US media conglomerate with close ties to the GOP.

The National Post now is supposed to be, I guess, the upmarket right-wing newspaper. Except that it's actually a very bad newspaper, and I'm not saying that because I disagree with its editorial stance: it has seemingly very few journalists (most of their articles are copypasta from Reuters, AFP etc.) and a lot of their paper is opinion/editorials disguised as 'news'. It certainly isn't a newspaper of record, although they do a good job at pretending that they are. We need to read it everyday at work and it is the butt of many jokes with my coworkers (about how bad it is).

More worrying is the fact that Postmedia now controls a huge chunk of English-language local newspapers and tabloids: they also own the trashy Sun tabloids (Toronto Sun etc.), local broadsheet dailies (the main traditional local newspapers in Montreal, Ottawa, Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Regina and most towns in Ontario) and a few remaining community newspapers. Usually with the exception of local news, there isn't much difference between those publications.

Also all their websites are a f-ing pain: they have a bunch of scrolling ads, videos popping up and other annoying things that make it look more like casino slot games websites than legitimate news website.

[DC Al Fine]

Lisa Roberts, NDP MLA for Halifax Needham announced she will be seeking the federal NDP nomination in Halifax.

Does she have a chance? How popular is Fillmore?

I think she has a decent shot, particularly if the NDP can make some headway in Atlantic Canada again. Fillmore is popular and brings in a lot of pork, but he's not some powerhouse either.

The biggest risk for her is that the Halifax Green EDA is actually a real force that can raise lots of money and attract legit candidates. There's a very real risk they will split the left-of-Liberal vote.

[Poirot]

Green Leader Annamie Paul will run again in Toronto Centre in the general election.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/green-leader-annamie-paul-to-run-in-toronto-centre-setting-stage-for-rematch-1.5304481

[King of Kensington]

Very unlikely to take it.  Her strong by-election showing was based on high turnout in low-population Cabbagetown.  Guelph seems like a wiser choice.

[Hatman 🍁]

I disagree. She has a lot more time to build up a proper campaign there, and get her known to voters. If you recall, everyone thought she was going to be a distant third (or fourth!) in the by-election. Don't underestimate her.

I've said this a million times, but Toronto Centre is a "promiscuous progressive" riding disguised as a Liberal riding. It's almost always gone Liberal, the voters there don't know any better. And the Liberals almost always run a strong candidates, including in the by-election. But voters there have a choice now.

[Benjamin Frank]

Pierre Polievre has been replaced as shadow finance minister in favor of Ed Fast.

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/entry/pierre-poilievre-erin-otoole-shadow-cabinet_ca_60241c00c5b6f38d06e8f017

Interesting move from Erin O'Toole dropping the noxious show horse Polievre for a genuine work horse in Ed Fast.

Along with the reaching out to the private sector unions and kicking Derek Sloan out of the party, this seems to be another move by O'Toole to shift the party to the center right.

From what I've seen of people with different ideologies, they aren't all the same except for having different ideologies.  Some people on the left seem far more concerned than most other people with 'civility' while some of those on the right (especially the hard right) seem to genuinely admire underhanded people unlike other people.

So, while I wouldn't expect Erin O'Toole to say outright "Yes, I lied to you when I ran in the leadership on the hard right, and I expect you to admire me for being underhanded" I would not be surprised if he says words to those effect.

The only issue here I think is will hard right Canadians admire this underhanded behavior when it was used on them?

As for me, I don't care for duplicity, but I'm not part of the 'civility' crowd either.  As the song goes, 'it's okay, I understand, this ain't no never-never land.'  If Erin O'Toole can demonstrate a reasonableness on a wide range of issues while the Trudeau Liberals fail to demonstrate a need for at least some fiscal discipline, I would certainly give the Conservatives a hard look in the next election.

[King of Kensington]

Poll by polls from Toronto Centre for selected areas.

Church-Wellesley (Gay Village)

Liberals  1,987  42%
Greens  1,396  30%
NDP  954  20%

St. James Town

Liberals  1,042  59%
NDP  278  16%
Greens  260  15%

Cabbagetown

Greens  891  55%
Liberals  505  31%
NDP  159  10%