Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[CumbrianLefty]

I find that explanation disingenuous. The Prime Minister's family are involved in a corruption scandal, the Finance Minister falls on a knife never admitting blame, and we're going to whisk that away? It was clearly a move to stop the Trudeau government from falling when they only hold a minority to start with. They couldn't do what they did with SNC Lavelin and just vote to not investigate because they didn't have a majority.

The government was in no danger of falling- CPC was still in the middle of its leadership race and the NDP was broke, with bad poll numbers to boot and had no intention to go into an election.

On the other hand in case of Harper there was a full blown confidence and supply agreement between the opposition parties and he was about to lose a confidence vote within days had he not prorogued.

The two situations are no remotely comparable.

The end result is the exact same. I agree "government falling" is too strong but the prorogation was to preserve the government's place and standing by quashing an investigation into its actions. If anything it's worse because no one was accusing Harper of political corruption when he prorogued, they were just upset by a political manuever. Harper didn't break any laws in the lead up to it. What Trudeau did was a political manuever to stop an investigation from shining light on the actions of MP's that hit close to home. How is that possibly fine to anyone with a neutral state of mind not colored by their political leanings?

You - over here.

The point - over there

[StateBoiler]

The Boys in Short Pants podcast Twitter had a funny line when Morneau was fined $300 post-fact for violating the Canada Elections Act. "I got a $280 ticket for jaywalking once. It was -20C I was wearing a T-shirt and trying to catch a cab. Don't judge my life choices."

Not sure that line about Morneau is funny. Maybe you had to be there?

Great podcast. Recommend it to anyone with an interest in inner workings of Canadian government, although I find it good to listen to because it explains the behind the scenes of how government operates which at least in the U.S. literally no one from the left, right, neither, or the media ever does.

It's from 2 government staffers: one NDP and one Conservative. https://soundcloud.com/boys-in-short-pants/

[Benjamin Frank]

Can Canadians explain to me why when Harper prorogued parliament when he held a minority it was this travesty of democracy that made international news, and when Trudeau did it to stop investigation of the WE Charity scandal from hurting the Liberal Party further in a minority parliament (as well as going back on a campaign promise) it's not even discussed here on this thread or board I believe, or makes larger news?

Harper move cancelled three months of Parliament sitting.
Trudeau move postponed the end of summer recess by a week.

Harper also prorogued Parliament to prevent an imminent defeat of his government with the other parties poised to take power, that wasn't the case with this prorogation.

It was still wrong, because the purpose of the Liberals was clearly to shut down the investigation into the WE charity scandal, but the anti-Democratic nature is much less serious.

I find that explanation disingenuous. The Prime Minister's family are involved in a corruption scandal, the Finance Minister falls on a knife never admitting blame, and we're going to whisk that away? It was clearly a move to stop the Trudeau government from falling when they only hold a minority to start with. They couldn't do what they did with SNC Lavelin and just vote to not investigate because they didn't have a majority.

The Boys in Short Pants podcast Twitter had a funny line when Morneau was fined $300 post-fact for violating the Canada Elections Act. "I got a $280 ticket for jaywalking once. It was -20C I was wearing a T-shirt and trying to catch a cab. Don't judge my life choices."

Who is 'we'  (in the we're going to whisk that away)  If you mean Atlas, I don't know why it wasn't mentioned.  I already pointed out the people who post here on Canadian politics aren't necessarily representative.  If you mean why was it not discussed in the Canadian media, it was all over the Canadian media.

The obvious other point, which hasn't been brought up, is that in this time of Covid, it's not a surprise the public at large would pay less attention to political maneuverings.

I'm also not sure that there were any crimes with the 'We' Charity scandal either.  There were regulatory violations which count as 'breaking the law' but I'm not sure there is anything punishable with either jail or large fines that might have occurred here.  If you want to get into a discussion why some things are crimes, but other very similar things aren't, that's a whole other discussion.

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/CNoelSRC/status/1318956056907862022 No election.

[Benjamin Frank]

https://twitter.com/CNoelSRC/status/1318956056907862022
 No election.

Justin Trudeau's likely response to Jagmeet Singh "Thank...You...So...Very...Much (bastard.)"

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/CNoelSRC/status/1318956056907862022 No election.

Wonderful. Hopefully, it will give more time for the NDP caucus to realize we need to get rid of Singh, who can't say a sentence without talking about race or talk about anything not related to his experience of a racialized person.

Importing those tired american tropes is very bad and is destroying the base of the party.

[DC Al Fine]

https://twitter.com/CNoelSRC/status/1318956056907862022 No election.

Wonderful. Hopefully, it will give more time for the NDP caucus to realize we need to get rid of Singh, who can't say a sentence without talking about race or talk about anything not related to his experience of a racialized person.

Importing those tired american tropes is very bad and is destroying the base of the party.

Much as I agree with the sentiment, wouldn't you want an election if that were the case? I have a hard time seeing any party dumping their leader this far into a minority parliament.

[DC Al Fine]

I find that explanation disingenuous. The Prime Minister's family are involved in a corruption scandal, the Finance Minister falls on a knife never admitting blame, and we're going to whisk that away? It was clearly a move to stop the Trudeau government from falling when they only hold a minority to start with. They couldn't do what they did with SNC Lavelin and just vote to not investigate because they didn't have a majority.

The government was in no danger of falling- CPC was still in the middle of its leadership race and the NDP was broke, with bad poll numbers to boot and had no intention to go into an election.

On the other hand in case of Harper there was a full blown confidence and supply agreement between the opposition parties and he was about to lose a confidence vote within days had he not prorogued.

The two situations are no remotely comparable.

The end result is the exact same. I agree "government falling" is too strong but the prorogation was to preserve the government's place and standing by quashing an investigation into its actions. If anything it's worse because no one was accusing Harper of political corruption when he prorogued, they were just upset by a political manuever. Harper didn't break any laws in the lead up to it. What Trudeau did was a political manuever to stop an investigation from shining light on the actions of MP's that hit close to home. How is that possibly fine to anyone with a neutral state of mind not colored by their political leanings?

This:

Obviously the circumstances leading up to each prorogation were different, but the question isn't whether they were identical, it's whether the different levels of outrage were merited.

Trudeau prorogued Parliament to stonewall investigations into credible allegations that he directed a government contract to a group that paid his family large sums of money. That is a very serious charge and a reprehensible use of parliamentary procedure by the Prime Minister to avoid accountability to Parliament. Those of us on the right (and some NDP/Bloc partisans to be fair) can be forgiven for rolling our eyes at explanation that what Trudeau did was Very Different From What Harper Did^TM, particularly if they lived through the "Democracy Dies in Darkness" type rhetoric of 08/09.

[TopShelfGoal]

https://twitter.com/CNoelSRC/status/1318956056907862022
 No election.

Chantal Hebert saying that government is laying groundwork to ask the Governer General to dissolve the parliament and call an election if the opposition tries to obstruct with the WE charity issue https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYJkKwI6u7w

[Benjamin Frank]

It looks like the Liberals are doing everything they can to force an election. There is a precedent for a modern winter election.  The 1980 election following the defeat of the Joe Clark government was held on February 18, 1980, but, back them, campaigns were two months long, so it would have been called sometime in December.

Pierre Trudeau started his victory speech with the line "Fellow Canadians, mecheres  amis, well, welcome to the 1980s."

[Benjamin Frank]

It looks like there might not be a chance to assemble a high profile slate of candidates, but who would be your dream slate of new Conservative candidates to run alongside Erin O'Toole, who is clearly a big step up from Andrew Scheer?  To be sure, many of mine would be high profile retreads, but some new candidates as well.

From west to east
1.James Moore
2.Mike Bernier (assuming the B.C Liberals lose)
3.Rona Ambrose
4.Gary Mar
5.Brad Wall
6.Brian Bowman
7.Jim Baird
8.Lisa Raitt
9.Michel Fortier
10.Bernard Lord
11.Peter MacKay

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/brodiefenlon/status/1322764097813913602?s=20

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/btaplatt/status/1323324924530987008

[Poirot]

Legault and Macron spoke on the phone. Macron thanked Legault for his defense of freedom of expression. Legault had said he sided with Macron and disagreed with Trudeau who talked about freedom of expression having limits. This is following the beaheading of a French teacher.

https://montrealgazette.com/news/quebec/france-thanks-quebec-premier-for-defending-freedom-of-expression

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

It looks like there might not be a chance to assemble a high profile slate of candidates, but who would be your dream slate of new Conservative candidates to run alongside Erin O'Toole, who is clearly a big step up from Andrew Scheer?  To be sure, many of mine would be high profile retreads, but some new candidates as well.

From west to east
1.James Moore
2.Mike Bernier (assuming the B.C Liberals lose)
3.Rona Ambrose
4.Gary Mar
5.Brad Wall
6.Brian Bowman
7.Jim Baird
8.Lisa Raitt
9.Michel Fortier
10.Bernard Lord
11.Peter MacKay

1. James Moore: I could see him running, as he is still relatively prominent in the CPC. His biggest challenge would be getting a seat, as metro Vancouver has trended away from the CPC since he left.

2. Mike Bernier: If a seat opens up, yes. His part of BC is held by the Conservative backbencher Bob Zimmer, who has been there since 2011. It's not inconceivable that this seat opens up, though maybe not in a snap election.

3. Rona Ambrose: Says she won't run, and has a well-paying corporate job. If she wants back into politics at all, her best bet is to wait for O'Toole's leadership to end at some point and jump into a leadership race.

4. Gary Mar: Don't know much about him, but there's not much free real estate for Conservative politicians in Alberta right now. He'd likely have to wait for a Calgary-area retirement/resignation.

5. Brad Wall: O'Toole would probably love to have someone like him in caucus, he could almost function as a "prairie lieutenant" to shore up the base while O'Toole focuses on Ontario. Again, no real estate in Sask. But should a CPC MP in SK retire anytime soon, he would get the nomination with ease.

6. Brian Bowman: Is he popular in Winnipeg? Winnipeg South and Elmwood-Transcona are marginal enough for a popular tory to win, but it's an uphill battle. And with the current state of Covid in Winnipeg, he might not win.

7. Assuming you mean John Baird: No. Ottawa has been very NOVA-ized since 2015, and his old riding of Ottawa West-Nepean is now a solid Liberal riding. He would have to run in Kanata-Carleton to have a shot. And even then, Baird might not want to. I don't know the details but the word in Ottawa is that Baird has a few skeletons in his closet.

8. Lisa Raitt: Milton is gone. Even if Van Koeverden's Olympian stardom wears off, there's clearly greater trends in Milton and it's hard to see the CPC making up a 9000-vote gap and 21% swing. She could try one of the Oakville ridings, but even those are unlikely to go blue. Her best shot is to hope Chong retires in Wellington-Halton Hills.

9. Michael Fortier: He would have to be parachuted into one of the Beauport ridings, or wait for a QC CPC MP to resign. He's been out of the public eye for quite some time though, I don't think he would be that much of a star candidate.

10. Bernard Lord: Again, out of the public eye for quite some time. He's the CEO of Medavie-Blue Cross now, which probably pays better than an MP's salary. And I don't know how well a red tory like him could fit with the party of Erin "Take Canada Back" O'Toole

11. Peter MacKay: Already announced he's not running. If he changes his mind, he has an uphill battle in Central Nova.

[DC Al Fine]

A few thoughts:

James Moore has a special needs child who was born during Harper's majority term, which played a big part in his decision to go back to the private sector.

Good point re: Mar. I took a skim through Calgary's results and it looks like the Calgary seats were all held by Reform era people for a long time, and then they all got turned over pretty recently. The city's MP's are pretty young with long careers ahead of them. It will be hard for anyone to get into Parliament from Calgary until the next boundary changes open things up a bit.

Politics isn't the most attractive career choice once you've made the connections to get those high end corporate jobs, especially since you've already taken a kick at the politics can. I'm sure MacKay, Lord et al are making way more than they would in Parliament and have better hours to boot


No specific names in mind, but I wonder if any CAQuiste MLA's might want to try and pick off a seat for the Tories. CAQ has a large majority, so maybe someone is thinking they'd be able to go further with the Feds.

[Benjamin Frank]

It looks like there might not be a chance to assemble a high profile slate of candidates, but who would be your dream slate of new Conservative candidates to run alongside Erin O'Toole, who is clearly a big step up from Andrew Scheer?  To be sure, many of mine would be high profile retreads, but some new candidates as well.

From west to east
1.James Moore
2.Mike Bernier (assuming the B.C Liberals lose)
3.Rona Ambrose
4.Gary Mar
5.Brad Wall
6.Brian Bowman
7.Jim Baird
8.Lisa Raitt
9.Michel Fortier
10.Bernard Lord
11.Peter MacKay

1. James Moore: I could see him running, as he is still relatively prominent in the CPC. His biggest challenge would be getting a seat, as metro Vancouver has trended away from the CPC since he left.

2. Mike Bernier: If a seat opens up, yes. His part of BC is held by the Conservative backbencher Bob Zimmer, who has been there since 2011. It's not inconceivable that this seat opens up, though maybe not in a snap election.

3. Rona Ambrose: Says she won't run, and has a well-paying corporate job. If she wants back into politics at all, her best bet is to wait for O'Toole's leadership to end at some point and jump into a leadership race.

4. Gary Mar: Don't know much about him, but there's not much free real estate for Conservative politicians in Alberta right now. He'd likely have to wait for a Calgary-area retirement/resignation.

5. Brad Wall: O'Toole would probably love to have someone like him in caucus, he could almost function as a "prairie lieutenant" to shore up the base while O'Toole focuses on Ontario. Again, no real estate in Sask. But should a CPC MP in SK retire anytime soon, he would get the nomination with ease.

6. Brian Bowman: Is he popular in Winnipeg? Winnipeg South and Elmwood-Transcona are marginal enough for a popular tory to win, but it's an uphill battle. And with the current state of Covid in Winnipeg, he might not win.

7. Assuming you mean John Baird: No. Ottawa has been very NOVA-ized since 2015, and his old riding of Ottawa West-Nepean is now a solid Liberal riding. He would have to run in Kanata-Carleton to have a shot. And even then, Baird might not want to. I don't know the details but the word in Ottawa is that Baird has a few skeletons in his closet.

8. Lisa Raitt: Milton is gone. Even if Van Koeverden's Olympian stardom wears off, there's clearly greater trends in Milton and it's hard to see the CPC making up a 9000-vote gap and 21% swing. She could try one of the Oakville ridings, but even those are unlikely to go blue. Her best shot is to hope Chong retires in Wellington-Halton Hills.

9. Michael Fortier: He would have to be parachuted into one of the Beauport ridings, or wait for a QC CPC MP to resign. He's been out of the public eye for quite some time though, I don't think he would be that much of a star candidate.

10. Bernard Lord: Again, out of the public eye for quite some time. He's the CEO of Medavie-Blue Cross now, which probably pays better than an MP's salary. And I don't know how well a red tory like him could fit with the party of Erin "Take Canada Back" O'Toole

11. Peter MacKay: Already announced he's not running. If he changes his mind, he has an uphill battle in Central Nova.

Thanks for this well thought out reply.  I did refer to it as a 'dream slate' so, not that it should be taken as people actually likely to run, just people I thought would make an excellent front bench with Prime Minister Erin O'Toole (much better than say Pierre Polievre or Michelle Rempel.)

I was wondering if there were any names I didn't think of.

I disagree with the characterization here of Erin O'Toole.  He has signaled not so much being a 'take back Canada' Conservative or of being a Red Tory as much as being a 'working class Tory' (sorry to anybody who is offended by the word 'Tory')  similar to Boris Johnson in the U.K and Scott Morrison in Australia.  O'Toole has repeatedly (especially since winning the leadership) made comments critical of big business and in favor of private sector unions.  

I'm interested in any specific policies they come up with to back this up.  I think especially if they show an interest in 'trust busting' or in being much more serious about addressing corporate crime or wealthy tax cheats than the Liberal Party has demonstrated, that they could appeal to a large number of Canadians.    

[StateBoiler]

It looks like the Liberals are doing everything they can to force an election. There is a precedent for a modern winter election.  The 1980 election following the defeat of the Joe Clark government was held on February 18, 1980, but, back them, campaigns were two months long, so it would have been called sometime in December.

Pierre Trudeau started his victory speech with the line "Fellow Canadians, mecheres  amis, well, welcome to the 1980s."

I'm going through the Boys in Short Pants podcasts, and I'm up to February of this year where they start the podcast saying "it seems like we've not had a government for 6 months...Committees are now back to work but aren't doing a whole lot...probably because the Liberals don't have a majority of Committee seats". Are the Liberals really wanting to shed this minority parliamentary status, but Covid is in a way kind of blocking them?

[TopShelfGoal]

^^ Liberals all things considered do want an election to try to get a majority while the CERB checks are going out. If it hadn't been for the WE Charity scandal this summer that softened their support a bit I think they would have been way more aggressive trying to force a fall election (esp now that several provincial governments and governments abroad held covid elections and did not pay a price for calling them).

Now, they are in a position where if they could wave a magic wand (i.e have the opposition take the blame for bringing down the govt) they'd love an election but feel they don't have enough cushion to withstand backlash if they are seen as being opportunistic. The polls esp the regional numbers have them in majority territory but not as comfortably as they were in the spring so I think they feel a bit gun shy about potential backlash if they are seen as trying to engineer the fall of the current parliament.

[King of Kensington]

1. James Moore: I could see him running, as he is still relatively prominent in the CPC. His biggest challenge would be getting a seat, as metro Vancouver has trended away from the CPC since he left.

2. Mike Bernier: If a seat opens up, yes. His part of BC is held by the Conservative backbencher Bob Zimmer, who has been there since 2011. It's not inconceivable that this seat opens up, though maybe not in a snap election.

3. Rona Ambrose: Says she won't run, and has a well-paying corporate job. If she wants back into politics at all, her best bet is to wait for O'Toole's leadership to end at some point and jump into a leadership race.

4. Gary Mar: Don't know much about him, but there's not much free real estate for Conservative politicians in Alberta right now. He'd likely have to wait for a Calgary-area retirement/resignation.

5. Brad Wall: O'Toole would probably love to have someone like him in caucus, he could almost function as a "prairie lieutenant" to shore up the base while O'Toole focuses on Ontario. Again, no real estate in Sask. But should a CPC MP in SK retire anytime soon, he would get the nomination with ease.

6. Brian Bowman: Is he popular in Winnipeg? Winnipeg South and Elmwood-Transcona are marginal enough for a popular tory to win, but it's an uphill battle. And with the current state of Covid in Winnipeg, he might not win.

7. Assuming you mean John Baird: No. Ottawa has been very NOVA-ized since 2015, and his old riding of Ottawa West-Nepean is now a solid Liberal riding. He would have to run in Kanata-Carleton to have a shot. And even then, Baird might not want to. I don't know the details but the word in Ottawa is that Baird has a few skeletons in his closet.

8. Lisa Raitt: Milton is gone. Even if Van Koeverden's Olympian stardom wears off, there's clearly greater trends in Milton and it's hard to see the CPC making up a 9000-vote gap and 21% swing. She could try one of the Oakville ridings, but even those are unlikely to go blue. Her best shot is to hope Chong retires in Wellington-Halton Hills.

9. Michael Fortier: He would have to be parachuted into one of the Beauport ridings, or wait for a QC CPC MP to resign. He's been out of the public eye for quite some time though, I don't think he would be that much of a star candidate.

10. Bernard Lord: Again, out of the public eye for quite some time. He's the CEO of Medavie-Blue Cross now, which probably pays better than an MP's salary. And I don't know how well a red tory like him could fit with the party of Erin "Take Canada Back" O'Toole

11. Peter MacKay: Already announced he's not running. If he changes his mind, he has an uphill battle in Central Nova.

This really shows how difficult the path to victory is for the CPC, even if O'Toole is a much more capable leader than his predecessor.  The Vancouver, Toronto and Ottawa suburbs are increasingly out of reach, and O'Toole is going to have to really do spectacularly well outside the "big six" (1 million+) metros or really find a way to break into ethnocultural and immigrant communities.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

This really shows how difficult the path to victory is for the CPC, even if O'Toole is a much more capable leader than his predecessor.  The Vancouver, Toronto and Ottawa suburbs are increasingly out of reach, and O'Toole is going to have to really do spectacularly well outside the "big six" (1 million+) metros or really find a way to break into ethnocultural and immigrant communities.

To O'Toole's credit, he's been trying out new ways to break or neutralize the Liberal 'red wall'. His focus on organized labour combined with culture war stuff, while fully ingenuine, could help make gains among blue collar voters. Many of these folks are politically homeless because the NDP's organizational capacity ain't what it used to be, and like in the US and the UK, this leaves room for the right wing to speak to their cultural sensibilities.

Another group O'Toole has changed the CPC's tune on is Quebecers. They're leaning heavily into Quebec nationalism now, and considering there are a lot of politically promiscuous working-class small-town Quebecers who fit both of these profiles, O'Toole's game might be to start winning more than a dozen seats in Quebec.

Do I think this will work? Maybe not immediately, I expect a snap election sometime in 2021 and that's not enough time to make relevant inroads in two communities that have historically hated your guts. But I must admit that as a Liberal, O'Toole worries me a bit more than Scheer. Scheer was just a party hack who only knew how to speak to the most hardcore Harper fans, didn't really do much for broadening the Conservative coalition. O'Toole is throwing things at the wall hoping they stick, but that's not necessarily a bad strategy for an opposition party that's basically locked out from the traditional way of winning.

[King of Kensington]

I agree, O'Toole should not be underestimated.  His caucus is ridiculously weak though (i.e. Pierre Poilievre, Michelle Rempel).

And Scheer was a bad fit outside the Prairies.  O'Toole is much more attuned culturally to eastern Canada. 

[mileslunn]

I think timing is key too.  Tories are generally known as fiscally conservative and until economy recovers, no one wants to hear about austerity or balanced budgets.  But down the road this could come to bite the Liberals but probably after next election.  Realistically I think O'Toole needs to do better than Harper in Quebec to have any chance.

Lower Mainland is swinging hard away from Tories, but unlike provincially there are strong splits so while repeating Harper's showing in Lower Mainland of 2011 probably not realistic, no reason cannot do better than 2019.  Already have most of the Prairies and only a few ridings left there to win.  In Ontario, 905 belt is a mixed bag.  York region used to be solidly Liberal back in Chretien/Martin days, but nowadays its region Tories tend to perform best in.  He is from Durham region so has some local roots although I think Ajax and Pickering-Uxbridge have bad demographics and probably out of reach for Tories.  Pickering-Uxbridge maybe possible if he can start pulling off Trump like margins in rural parts (going through US precincts, that was how Trump stayed north of 40% in many suburban counties, but getting over 2/3 in rural precincts which outside Prairies Tories are not doing).

Peel region, need to like Doug Ford do better in cultural communities and I feel there is potential but usually it takes time to get known before you can breakthrough.  Harper took more than one election while Doug Ford due to his brother being mayor already had those connections.  Halton region is a lot like Loudoun County, Virginia, Fairfield County, Connecticut, or Chester County, Pennsylvania; not too long ago GOP won there easily, but now has become toxic.  Mind you if O'Toole takes on a more traditional fiscally conservative socially liberal, he could gain there, but only once we've recovered and concerns about deficits and big spending rise, which I don't see happening before next election.

London is gone and for Kitchener, only Kitchener-Conestoga and Cambridge winnable and likewise with Ottawa only Nepean and Kanata-Carleton.  That being said all of those do include some rural polls so again if like Trump O'Toole can run up the margins in the rural parts and not get blown out too badly in suburban parts possible but so far no Tory has yet done this successfully. 

For Atlantic Canada it tends to prefer Red Tories, so I think MacKay with his roots there and strong ties to provincial PCs probably had a better shot there than O'Toole but O'Toole an improvement over Scheer.

Realistically its true, Tories don't really have a path to 270.  Mind you in Ontario, PCs path to 63 is really difficult yet Ford managed to achieve it so if people are mad enough can be done.  But I think you need to reach throw the bums out level before this happens which we are not at yet.

I think just in general, now is a good time for the left and bad for right.  Look at how bad Kenney is crashing in polls and Pallister too.  People aren't interested in fiscal conservatism right now and libertarianism as Kenney is learning the hard way only sells amongst rabid base.  Thus the big challenge for Tories and I think Trudeau knows this so will go while public is still in left wing mood knowing eventually it will swing back towards centre.

Also wonder what role provincial politics will play.

Will Horgan's popularity help NDP win big in BC or does it just push NDP up enough to allow Tories to come up middle in several seats or no impact as seems lots of Trudeau-Horgan voters in BC.

Does Kenney's tanking approval rating cost O'Toole seats in Alberta, especially as Kenney endorsed O'Toole or do they as often the case separate two.  One pollster thinks Kenney is toast, although I think that is probably true if an election were held today, skeptical it will necessary be the case in 2023.  Definitely possible he loses but still time to recover, but any recovery in his numbers if it happens comes after next federal election.

Does Ford's rebound work in O'Toole's favour.  Liberals did well in Ontario by tying Scheer to Ford.  Now Ford is no longer a liability like he was last year.  Kenney is but Tories have a big enough cushion in Alberta and outside people's opinions aren't as strong so seat wise being tied to Kenney probably doesn't worry O'Toole too much but maybe helps Liberals gain a seat or two in Alberta.

What is Legault's impact?  He is very popular but likely stays neutral although I don't think any federal leader wants to get on his bad side.

[cp]

I think timing is key too.  Tories are generally known as fiscally conservative and until economy recovers, no one wants to hear about austerity or balanced budgets.  But down the road this could come to bite the Liberals but probably after next election.  Realistically I think O'Toole needs to do better than Harper in Quebec to have any chance.

Lower Mainland is swinging hard away from Tories, but unlike provincially there are strong splits so while repeating Harper's showing in Lower Mainland of 2011 probably not realistic, no reason cannot do better than 2019.  Already have most of the Prairies and only a few ridings left there to win.  In Ontario, 905 belt is a mixed bag.  York region used to be solidly Liberal back in Chretien/Martin days, but nowadays its region Tories tend to perform best in.  He is from Durham region so has some local roots although I think Ajax and Pickering-Uxbridge have bad demographics and probably out of reach for Tories.  Pickering-Uxbridge maybe possible if he can start pulling off Trump like margins in rural parts (going through US precincts, that was how Trump stayed north of 40% in many suburban counties, but getting over 2/3 in rural precincts which outside Prairies Tories are not doing).

Peel region, need to like Doug Ford do better in cultural communities and I feel there is potential but usually it takes time to get known before you can breakthrough.  Harper took more than one election while Doug Ford due to his brother being mayor already had those connections.  Halton region is a lot like Loudoun County, Virginia, Fairfield County, Connecticut, or Chester County, Pennsylvania; not too long ago GOP won there easily, but now has become toxic.  Mind you if O'Toole takes on a more traditional fiscally conservative socially liberal, he could gain there, but only once we've recovered and concerns about deficits and big spending rise, which I don't see happening before next election.

London is gone and for Kitchener, only Kitchener-Conestoga and Cambridge winnable and likewise with Ottawa only Nepean and Kanata-Carleton.  That being said all of those do include some rural polls so again if like Trump O'Toole can run up the margins in the rural parts and not get blown out too badly in suburban parts possible but so far no Tory has yet done this successfully. 

For Atlantic Canada it tends to prefer Red Tories, so I think MacKay with his roots there and strong ties to provincial PCs probably had a better shot there than O'Toole but O'Toole an improvement over Scheer.

Realistically its true, Tories don't really have a path to 270.  Mind you in Ontario, PCs path to 63 is really difficult yet Ford managed to achieve it so if people are mad enough can be done.  But I think you need to reach throw the bums out level before this happens which we are not at yet.

I think just in general, now is a good time for the left and bad for right.  Look at how bad Kenney is crashing in polls and Pallister too.  People aren't interested in fiscal conservatism right now and libertarianism as Kenney is learning the hard way only sells amongst rabid base.  Thus the big challenge for Tories and I think Trudeau knows this so will go while public is still in left wing mood knowing eventually it will swing back towards centre.

Also wonder what role provincial politics will play.

Will Horgan's popularity help NDP win big in BC or does it just push NDP up enough to allow Tories to come up middle in several seats or no impact as seems lots of Trudeau-Horgan voters in BC.

Does Kenney's tanking approval rating cost O'Toole seats in Alberta, especially as Kenney endorsed O'Toole or do they as often the case separate two.  One pollster thinks Kenney is toast, although I think that is probably true if an election were held today, skeptical it will necessary be the case in 2023.  Definitely possible he loses but still time to recover, but any recovery in his numbers if it happens comes after next federal election.

Does Ford's rebound work in O'Toole's favour.  Liberals did well in Ontario by tying Scheer to Ford.  Now Ford is no longer a liability like he was last year.  Kenney is but Tories have a big enough cushion in Alberta and outside people's opinions aren't as strong so seat wise being tied to Kenney probably doesn't worry O'Toole too much but maybe helps Liberals gain a seat or two in Alberta.

What is Legault's impact?  He is very popular but likely stays neutral although I don't think any federal leader wants to get on his bad side.

They have a shot if they can win MI, PA, and WI?

[mileslunn]

I meant 170 seats, which ironically in Canada is the magic number to get a majority.  We have 338 seats while US 538 electoral votes which is interesting.