Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[mileslunn]

National Post pleads for unity:

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/np-view-conservatives-must-unite-behind-erin-otoole-if-they-are-to-defeat-trudeau

Its been a decade since Tories federally last won an election and it seems since then base has become more right wing while median voter more left wing so I believe the gap between two has become so large its not possible to appeal to both.  O'Toole is sort of all over map as trying to appeal to both but finding not appealing to either.  When Harper was leader, appealing to both was tough, but a skilled leader could do it.  Harper did it by staying close to centre on big issues but going right on peripheral ones to fire up base and hope public wouldn't care.  That worked then, but today median voter is now on left not dead centre while base has gone from right to even further right.

Expanding on what you said, Harper also benefited from an utterly dysfunctional and balkanized Liberal Party, while today's Liberal Party is a well-oiled machine with remarkable internal unity. People still doubt Trudeau's leadership chops, but the man has been able to run a tight ship without having to muzzle his caucus nearly to the extent that Harper did. All things considered, the Liberals look like the governing party, and that goes a long way in convincing LPC-CPC swing voters.

The CPC simply has nowhere to go, and so the right wing of the party is gaining relative influence. Perhaps things would be different without the pandemic, but as of right now, the Liberals have all the ingredients they need: their policies remain around the median of Canadian public opinion, government approval is strong, there is no infighting whatsoever, and scandals haven't gotten the better of them (yet). The CPC is therefore cornered into being the party of ideological conservatives, and Canada's just not the sort of country you can win with ideology alone.

Agreed, I see Conservatives in long term decline and while I don't want to say never, I don't see Tories forming government anytime soon.  I also think pandemic may be pushing a big shift left and Liberals have moved left with public while Tories are not and probably cannot without another split.

[mileslunn]

National Post pleads for unity:

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/np-view-conservatives-must-unite-behind-erin-otoole-if-they-are-to-defeat-trudeau

Its been a decade since Tories federally last won an election and it seems since then base has become more right wing while median voter more left wing so I believe the gap between two has become so large its not possible to appeal to both.  O'Toole is sort of all over map as trying to appeal to both but finding not appealing to either.  When Harper was leader, appealing to both was tough, but a skilled leader could do it.  Harper did it by staying close to centre on big issues but going right on peripheral ones to fire up base and hope public wouldn't care.  That worked then, but today median voter is now on left not dead centre while base has gone from right to even further right.

Expanding on what you said, Harper also benefited from an utterly dysfunctional and balkanized Liberal Party, while today's Liberal Party is a well-oiled machine with remarkable internal unity. People still doubt Trudeau's leadership chops, but the man has been able to run a tight ship without having to muzzle his caucus nearly to the extent that Harper did. All things considered, the Liberals look like the governing party, and that goes a long way in convincing LPC-CPC swing voters.

The CPC simply has nowhere to go, and so the right wing of the party is gaining relative influence. Perhaps things would be different without the pandemic, but as of right now, the Liberals have all the ingredients they need: their policies remain around the median of Canadian public opinion, government approval is strong, there is no infighting whatsoever, and scandals haven't gotten the better of them (yet). The CPC is therefore cornered into being the party of ideological conservatives, and Canada's just not the sort of country you can win with ideology alone.

Agreed, I see Conservatives in long term decline and while I don't want to say never, I don't see Tories forming government anytime soon.  I also think pandemic may be pushing a big shift left and Liberals have moved left with public while Tories are not and probably cannot without another split.

I'm loathe to do this, as I think it's usually just naive two-pint praxis, but it's remarkable how the Canadian Tories' and UK Labour's problems mirror each other right now:

- A decade out of power
- Split between an ideologically inspired grassroots and a compromise-for-power-at-all-costs elite which sneers at said grassroots with palpable contempt
- Facing an electorate that's moving decisively away from both factions' preferred policy programmes
- Ostracized/pathologized/condescended to by mainstream news/entertainment outlets
- Led by a milquetoast in pragmatists' clothing
- Opposed by a governing party/leader that is inexplicably resilient and/or tolerated

I'm not much more optimistic about Labour's chances than mileslunn is about the Canadian Tories'.

Both in bad shape, but Labour at least has somewhat easier plausibility of winning.  Neither can realistically get a majority, but Labour in UK just has to deny the Tories a majority by more than 10 seats (so cannot form with unionist party) and they likely get to form government.  Tories in Canada have to actually win a majority.

I think a lot feel Labour is too far to left but I don't see same loathing towards them as Tories in Canada.  Most Canadians hate the Tories with a passion and are absolutely terrified at the prospect of them ever forming government again.  Median Canadian voter is more left wing than median British so I think in past Tories could win, but now I think median has shifted enough left they are no longer electable.  In fact its arguable unlike a decade ago that NDP is closer to median voter than Tories are although Liberals closest.  Just many NDP types vote Liberal to keep Tories out while Tories have a base around 25% but their appeal beyond that limited and shrinking.

[mileslunn]

The Tories "have to" win a majority? Tell that to Stephen Harper in the 2000s. If the Tories get the most seats, they most likely will form a minority government. Unless the Liberals have grown a spine in the last 15 years.

If CPC + BQ perhaps, but if NDP holds balance of power no way.  A lot has changed since then as left is much more adamant about not allowing Tories to form government.  Partly generational as boomers tend to have quite same level of disdain for party as millennials do.  Part of it is boomers have lived through many Tory governments so realize despite fearmongering they aren't that bad even if they disagree with them while millennials much more likely to be truly frightened of Tories.  And NDP leans heavily towards younger voters while Liberals may not per se, but Trudeau clearly is focused on them even if some of the brass in his party prefer more to focus on boomers.

[mileslunn]

The Tories "have to" win a majority? Tell that to Stephen Harper in the 2000s. If the Tories get the most seats, they most likely will form a minority government. Unless the Liberals have grown a spine in the last 15 years.

If CPC + BQ perhaps, but if NDP holds balance of power no way.  A lot has changed since then as left is much more adamant about not allowing Tories to form government.  Partly generational as boomers tend to have quite same level of disdain for party as millennials do.  Part of it is boomers have lived through many Tory governments so realize despite fearmongering they aren't that bad even if they disagree with them while millennials much more likely to be truly frightened of Tories.  And NDP leans heavily towards younger voters while Liberals may not per se, but Trudeau clearly is focused on them even if some of the brass in his party prefer more to focus on boomers.

If CONS > LIB but LIB+NDP > CONS, then you might see something of a constitutional crisis. Many Canadians are too Americanized to grasp the concept that the winner of the most seats does not necessarily mean the party has won. It doesn't help that during election coverage, the media will declare the party with the most seats as the winner. 15 years ago when Harper led a bunch of minority governments, the Liberals were all too happy to just abstain on everything. What's to say they won't do the same this time? I guess it depends what the polls say.

I think BC precedence helps as Horgan didn't win most seats first time around in 2017 although that time was also quite close and BC Liberals had been in power for 16 years so time for change.  But yes 2008 was hugely divisive and backfired, but 2017 in BC was largely a yawn thus why hard to know.

[mileslunn]

I have a feeling this is going to be a huge disaster for Tories.  For Liberals, Trudeau makes lots of stupid mistakes, but he is a celebrity and in a celebrity world, you get lots of fans and people are more forgiving.  Also being on left flank of Liberals an added bonus as right now last thing people want to hear about is austerity or balanced budgets.  Big spending may not be sustainable long term and tough decisions will have to be made at some point, but right now after what people have gone through, no one wants to hear about it.  Maybe in 2 years once pandemic receded people will be ready for a serious conversation on tough choices.

Tories have two principle problems and reason why I would not be shocked if they fall below 100 seats and get under 30%:

1.  Likeability - Erin O'Toole comes across as angry and bitter and in tough times like these that is the worst thing.  Big reason Legault and Horgan have done well while Ford okay but Kenney disastrous is just that.  Legault and Horgan for all their flaws come across as compassionate and caring for people.  Ford does too, but has made some foolish mistakes but at least many view his heart is in the right place.  Kenney comes across as nasty and cold and besides people disagreeing with his policies, people just don't like him personally so not willing to forgive mistakes they might with someone more likeable.  Most people aren't as mad or don't hate Trudeau like Tory base does.

2.  Right wing base - O'Toole is trying to moderate which is the right thing, but base wants to go in opposite direction and as long as party is full of people who have viewpoints well outside the mainstream, people won't touch it with a ten foot pole.  Bad thing for Tories is much of the base will blame O'Toole's loss on being too centrist and thus next leader likely even more right wing there by ensuring Tories lose again in 2025.

Sure surprises can happen, after all in summer of 2005, I said Harper didn't stand a chance and was wrong.  I was very skeptical of Trudeau in 2015 but at least felt he had a shot due to his celebrity appeal but also felt his un-seriousness and gaffe proneness made him vulnerable.  I didn't think Trump would win in 2016 and in 2017 in UK, never thought Corbyn would come as close as he did (I thought results would be more like 2019).  Still O'Toole's personal approval ratings are a lot like Hudak in Ontario and Dion & Ignatieff federally and all of them went on to lose pretty badly.

[mileslunn]

Not a lot of polls in Ontario, but pretty sure Ford is no longer in majority territory.  Although ironically while Innovative and Abacus had bad numbers, PCs didn't really drop much, more opposition coalesced behind Liberals while Ford approval matched PC vote whereas before was generally much higher.  Still at this point, I think while a minority of some type most likely next year, all three parties have a path to win.

PCs:  In bad shape recently, but benefit from weak opposition and have a strong enough base so strong recovery could allow them to rebound.  Not to mid 40s like last year, but 38-40%.  BoJo took similar hit to Ford before Christmas but now with vaccine rollout has regained 10 point lead.  Not saying will happen or likely but not impossible.

Liberals: They are the default party when people are unsure so if people want to get rid of Ford but don't want to rock the boat, that bodes well for them.  Real problem is Del Duca is a real anchor on party.  Dion led many polls in 2007, but his personal numbers were horrible and once campaign started caught up.  At same time he is not well known so can improve his image.

NDP: May not do well in polls, but if public wants Ford defeated and they don't warm up to Del Duca, I think they have an opening.  Lets remember in 2018, almost every poll pre-election showed similarly bad numbers.  Yes some Liberals will go PC before NDP thus the challenge, but still if people want change and this time PCs are incumbent not challenger, unusual things can happen.

That being said I believe Kenney is in even bigger trouble than Ford.  Both face an uphill battle to get re-elected, but I would argue Kenney faces an even steeper hill to climb than Ford does.  At same time, with most UCP supporters being angry at Kenney, I think party dumps him before election.  Right wing base angry at restrictions, while moderates felt too slow so by taking middle ground just angered both sides.

Of Conservative premiers, Kenney, Ford and Pallister in trouble but still can recover but won't be easy.  Moe probably okay as Saskatchewan seems to be replacing Alberta as the new province where conservatives always win.  Legault very popular so as long as no major screw ups he should win and faces weak opposition.  Higgs and King look good now but still over 2 and 3 years away so things can change so not as safe as Legault who election next year, but much better odds than Ford, Kenney & Pallister. 

[mileslunn]

Of Conservative premiers, Kenney, Ford and Pallister in trouble but still can recover but won't be easy.  Moe probably okay as Saskatchewan seems to be replacing Alberta as the new province where conservatives always win.  Legault very popular so as long as no major screw ups he should win and faces weak opposition.  Higgs and King look good now but still over 2 and 3 years away so things can change so not as safe as Legault who election next year, but much better odds than Ford, Kenney & Pallister. 

I presume you expect Rankin also to be easily re-elected this (next?) year?

He is a Liberal not Conservative, but yes unless third wave of COVID-19 spirals out of control, I think he gets re-elected.  But if third wave goes badly and he bungles that, things can change quickly.  Ford 2 months ago had a double digit lead in polls and looked unbeatable so things can change quickly.

[mileslunn]

Yes, the ghosts of Bob Rae still linger in this province. Ridiculous really, since the Liberals and the Tories have also had terrible Premiers since then. But, the NDP is judged more harshly.

Possibly one reason why the NDP did better provincially in 2018 than federally in 2011 is that we're further removed from the days of Rae. The more people forgive and forget, the better the NDP will be able to do in the future. But, it will take time. I'm 34 and even I as a child can remember the vitriol against him.

Even in BC, NDP had same issue its why in 2017 even after 16 years of BC Liberal government and all the baggage still fell short in seats and votes, although by denying BC Liberals a majority were able to form government.  Normally a government in power that long not only loses, but loses badly.  Yes in 2020 they did much better and Horgan by avoiding the mistakes of NDP in the 90s has helped redeem the brand considerably so if NDP does manage to win in Ontario and govern well there is that upside. 

Ironically though in Alberta, NDP doing just fine provincially despite it being a lot more recently and same leader.  Although I don't think Notley was ever as disliked as Glen Clark or Bob Rae and Kenney is also pretty unpopular so not sure Alberta has embraced NDP as more having seen two governments, many are concluding Notley was the least bad of the two and Kenney worse.

[mileslunn]

Newfoundland and Labrador is, guess what, on the brink of bankruptcy yet again.

'Big reset' called for debt-ridden N.L. with release of ground-shaking economic report

In order to rein in a soaring public debt and end the long pattern of deficit spending, Greene recommended a five per cent reduction in core government spending, and that operating grants for Memorial University and the College of the North Atlantic be slashed by 30 per cent, at a rate of five per cent annually.

Some of her sharpest points were directed at the health system, which accounts for 37 per cent of public spending. The province also spends 24 per cent more per capita on heath than the Canadian average.

She also recommended the abolishment of Nalcor, the province's energy corporation and the entity that oversees the controversial Muskrat Falls hydroelectric project.

"Our predicament is the result of years of overspending; [government] spending about 25 per cent more than it takes in every year," she said, noting that expenditures soared by 80 per cent over a 15-year period "regardless of changes downward in our revenues."

She said privatization and sell-offs should not be ruled out, noting that "the public sector does not have to do everything. Times have changes and ways of doing things should also change."

Greene said the current governance culture — one that views budgets as "notional" and deficits as something that don't matter — has to end. She said the overall debt sits at more than $47 billion in a province of just over 500,000 residents.

The bolded works out to about 146% of GDP - an independent NL would be the third most indebted country in the world after Japan and Greece.

My guess is feds bail them out soon and that will look really bad, but I don't see what other alternative they have.

[mileslunn]

Canada is moving leftward.  The Conservative Party stuck at a 25-30% base unable to break into the "moderate vote" constituency (and the hard right is drifting off), but the shift leftward of the Liberal Party under Trudeau (compared to Chretien/Martin) doesn't seem to be sending anyone to the Tories. The old business wing, so prominent in the Turner and Chretien/Martin eras, seem pretty much extinct now.  It seems like a lot of people who would have been PCs or "blue Liberals" a generation ago have embraced a form of corporate "wokeness" (for lack of a better term). which means not only more sensitivity around issues of gender and racial equality, but also a concern about corporate social responsibility and income inequality.

100%.  What is ironic is you aren't seeing this shift elsewhere, if anything Europe is moving in opposite direction.  I think idea of Europe being to left of Canada is very outdated and no longer true.  Yes on some government policies are but more a lag indicator.  As for no Blue Liberals going over it is interesting, but I think pandemic, income inequality, and climate change have more or less made everyone a big government socialist.  Real question is when bills come due if that can hold or do things return to what they were before?

I have a number of times stated I believe Canada is most left wing developed country and there are signs that just might be coming true.  Tories in real rut so question is can they ever return to power.  Obviously you never want to say never but ideological make up right now basically says they cannot win so that will need to change before winning.  By contrast Liberal disaster in 1984 and 2011 never suggested there weren't enough small l liberals out there to win, more problem with party more than ideology.  1993 disaster likewise made things look bleak for Tories but at least if they could somehow unite everyone who leaned right there was a path, but actually uniting them seemed impossible.  Now it seems like there basically is no path.  If you ranked voters from most left to most right, and took person standing on the 40th percentile most right, they would lean left thus why Tories in big trouble.

[mileslunn]

What's a "poison pill" that would get the Tories and the Bloc and the NDP to vote to bring down Trudeau?

Like Higgs, Furey, Pallister, and Horgan, Trudeau will call one won't wait to fall on confidence vote.

[mileslunn]

I think bridging divide between moderates and base is even harder than a decade ago thus why I have stated I don't see Tories winning for a very long time.  With base going into echo chambers, they are becoming even more extreme and more detached from reality.  By contrast both the pandemic as well as other issues like climate change and income inequality have pushed median voter leftward.  Both of those issues weren't as pertinent in 2011 when Harper won his majority as now while things like taxes and deficits are less important than they were in past.  So unlike a decade ago where many in centre were open to conservative ideas on some issues, I would argue median voter now sits firmly on left therefore building a winning Tory coalition is not feasible at the moment.

What is interesting is globally things look pretty good for the right.  Pink tide in full retreat in Latin America.  Social democratic parties in Europe at all time lows and right in power in most European countries and continuing to grow each election cycle.  In Asia, India has seen INC greatly diminished and right growing in many countries.  New Zealand maybe the one that is bucking trend like Canada, but also that could be more due to good COVID management as National was in mid 40s before that so it seems that left wing swing is largely unique to Canada.  Some suggest US, but it seems pretty split down the middle as usual. 

I have stated many times, I believe Canada will emerge as the hub for progressive thinking and country where progressives have greatest electoral success.  In fact Canada may emerge as only and first democracy where conservatives cannot win.

[mileslunn]

https://twitter.com/katiederosayyj/status/1391855853649555457?s=19

Long way off but could be even harder for the BC Liberals to bounce back next time, especially as the bill eliminates the protected ridings in areas like Peace River.

Depends on who BC Liberals chose and how NDP governs.  Certainly if BC Liberals remain stuck in BC Interior, absolutely, but Lower Mainland suburbs were their strongholds a decade ago so not totally bad, but party will have to change quite a bit to win them back. 

[mileslunn]

Did we follow the same election? Trump did everything he could to shovel out as much money as possible but he was blocked by the House and Senate. Whenever he did manage to get cheques out his approval increased considerably.

People want money in their pockets and the perception of safety, hence why Cuomo and Legault are (were?) the most popular subnational leaders in the US and Canada despite having literally the worst metrics of their respective countries.

As for tax hikes, if France and Colombia are of any indication people aren't going to take tax hikes very well.

Trump was initially reluctant to support economic shutdowns, but when they became inevitable, he agreed to the generous cash handouts (with his signature on the cheques). That week where he acted somewhat presidentially gave him a bump in his approval rate, before it fell back to its default 40-45%.

As for tax hikes, I was referring to Biden's plan to "soak the rich". The US is so influential that major policy shifts will inevitably be followed across the democratic and even non-democratic world. If Biden is successful, then his policies will be picked up elsewhere.

What is interesting is globally things look pretty good for the right.  Pink tide in full retreat in Latin America.  Social democratic parties in Europe at all time lows and right in power in most European countries and continuing to grow each election cycle.  In Asia, India has seen INC greatly diminished and right growing in many countries.  New Zealand maybe the one that is bucking trend like Canada, but also that could be more due to good COVID management as National was in mid 40s before that so it seems that left wing swing is largely unique to Canada.  Some suggest US, but it seems pretty split down the middle as usual. 

I have stated many times, I believe Canada will emerge as the hub for progressive thinking and country where progressives have greatest electoral success.  In fact Canada may emerge as only and first democracy where conservatives cannot win.

We're globally in a state of flux, but one thing is clear: the Reagan/Thatcher era is over. Economic policy will be more interventionist. Even in dictatorships like China and Russia, this trend has become evident. I don't agree that the right is ascendent globally, but do agree that the successful mainstream conservative parties are pivoting leftwards on economic issues (e.g. UK Tories). Trump did so rhetorically, but his substantive economic policy was little different from the last few Republican presidents. Mainstream centre-left parties that are perceived to be wedded to Blairism suffered the most.

Erin O'Toole somewhat understood this, and did dabble in pivoting towards blue-collar voters. But he lacks credibility in doing so, especially when the Liberals are actually delivering interventionist policy.

Canada did already raises taxes on rich, if you look at top marginal rates in 2011 vs. 2021 they have gone up quite a bit although agree likely to go up even further.  Below is combined federal + provincial

               2011         2021

BC           43.7%       53.5%
AB           39%          48%
SK           44%          47.5%
MB           46.4%      50.4%
ON          46.4%       53.5%
QC          48.2%       53.3%
NB           43.3%       53.3%
PEI           47.4%       51.4%
NS            50%        54%
NL            42.3%       51.3%
YK            42.6%        48%
NWT         43.05%      47.05%
NU            40.5%        44.5%

so I would argue Occupy Wall Street a decade ago played a big role in tax hikes on rich at both federal and provincial level.  By contrast in US, top rate was 35% in 2011, today it is 37% although Biden plans to raise it to 39.6% which is what it was under Obama's second term.

As for globally, I would say social democratic parties everywhere in Europe whether more centrist type like Italy or more left like Labour under Corbyn are taking a hit.  Only a handful have been successful like Danish Social Democrats who take a very right wing stance on immigration (they would not work in Canada) with left wing economic and Portugal although I think in Portugal like New Zealand, its more due to popularity of leader as opposed to ideological shift.  SYRIZA in Greece lost after one election and Podemos in Spain who was leading in polls about 7 years ago is now imploding and struggling to stay relevant. 

While is true British Tories are more fiscally left wing under Johnson than say under David Cameron, they still sit to right of Labour.  Canada is really on its own in terms of big shift towards left wing policies.  Part of it could be cultural as we are more urban, diverse, and educated than most so I think the woke type policies aren't causing the collateral damage to left like they are in other countries.  Certainly in Europe a lot on right focus more on cultural conservatism than economic, but many still keep economic.  Few centre-right parties in Europe are raising taxes on rich for example and few who have only did so because they were forced to by EU to meet deficit targets not out of any principle and most lowered them once back in surplus.

[mileslunn]

I think the centre-left in Canada got lucky that this leftward transition took place when the Liberals were in power. Governments can do a lot more than the opposition when it comes to shifting the scope of policy discussion, and the Liberals caught onto this global leftward swing and adapted government policy and comms accordingly, leaving the opposition parties in a difficult position. Whereas a lot of other global centre-left parties (in my very basic observation, I'm not all that familiar) either failed to ditch the Third Way stuff or overshot it and moved way too far to the left.

It's the exact opposite in the UK (compared to Canada). The 2010-present Tory era started out very much on the economic right, but Johnson caught onto the trend and shifted the Tories to a more situationally appropriate style. Hell, even the GOP could have capitalized on this trend, and a more economically populist form of conservatism has grown in recent years. Unfortunately for the GOP, and luckily for the Democrats, Trump turned out to be an incompetent oaf who just couldn't help himself from being awful.

Partly although in Europe even where in power, they have generally not had much staying power or struggling to stay afloat.  Right now Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Spain, and Portugal have social democratic governments and only in Denmark and Portugal are they solidly ahead in the polls.  Other three, the lead is tenuous and could lose next election.  Its true right wing parties have shifted from fiscal conservatism more to cultural conservatism, but they haven't gone full left wing on economic policy, just don't play up their right wing economic policies as much as they did a decade ago.  But still if very unpopular, opposition could attack them on it and fact they are failing to land punches suggest to me that desire for cultural conservatism is more important than economic policy there.  In Canada by contrast, both are vote losers.

[mileslunn]

I suspect Jason Kenney privately happy about this is hoping this will hurt Ontario and Quebec thus lead to Liberals losing.  I don't think he will get his wish though

[mileslunn]

Diane Finley has resigned her seat in the House of Commons. Leslyn Lewis was already nominated as the Tory candidate, so barring some major unforseen event, she will join Parliament in the not-too-distant future.

Most likely but will be interesting to see how close.  I do think there is an outside chance Liberals pull off an upset, but unlikely.

[mileslunn]

Alberta MLA Todd Loewen has resigned as UCP Caucus Chair and issued an open letter calling on Premier Jason Kenney to resign. It would appear that the UCP caucus revolt against Kenney is gaining more momentum.

I don't see Kenney being premier in 2 years time.  Most likely party dumps him as he has alienated both right flank and moderates or if he does manage to stay on, voters defeat him in 2023.

[mileslunn]

*snip*

Loewen's resignation letter is fairly scathing.

Another MLA, Dave Hanson (Bonnyville-Cold Lake-St. Paul), posted on social media this morning echoing Loewen’s comments. Both are former Wildrose MLAs for whatever it’s worth. They were also both signatories to the recent(ish) letter opposing more covid restrictions. And they both endorsed Brian Jean back in the UCP leadership race.

Anti-lockdown types very noisy in Alberta, but I don't believe they are a majority.  In some ways pandemic has been terrible for parties on right as base opposes lockdowns but key swing voters support them whereas for progressive parties they are largely united on it.  Its why I think you will at provincial level see a progressive wave sweep the country dumping conservative premiers will replacing them with progressive ones.

[mileslunn]

Update: After an emergency caucus meeting, the UCP caucus voted to expel MLA Loewen, as well as longtime thorn in Kenney’s side MLA Drew Barnes (who, as a fun fact, is the last MLA from the Wildrose’s 2012 wave(-ish) remaining in the Leg) from caucus. The vote was not by secret ballot; the members had to send their votes to the UCP Assistant Deputy Speaker.

To add to the hilarity, someone was leaking live updates to Derek Fildebrandt’s Western Standard throughout the meeting.

Right move, but doubt this will end the divisions.  Notley must be happy as party is imploding.  NDP despite having a very weak bench in 2015 (many were paper candidates that never expected to win) showed far better political judgement, discipline, and unity than UCP are.  And I suspect in 2023 quality of candidates since they have shown they can win will be a lot better than in 2015.

Off course things can change, but at this point I don't see any scenario where Kenney is still premier in 2 years.  One of three things happens

1.  He resigns (seems unlikely but embarrassment of losing to Notley might make him out of pride).
2.  Party dumps him - I see this as most likely.  If he is still trailing by double digits by year's end, party dumps him.

3.  He loses to Notley - I think Notley will win next election no matter who is UCP leader but it goes from favoured to heavily favoured if Kenney is UCP leader.  At least with a different leader they have a somewhat better chance of recovering. 

I think many are misreading Alberta electorate.  While different in many ways, Alberta is seeing similar shift to what Colorado is seeing which is once reliably conservative, now reliably progressive and I see Alberta going that way.  I don't see Trudeau winning many seats here and especially not Singh, but in 2025 if Chrystia Freeland is Liberal leader, I would not be shocked if she wins a whole bunch of urban seats in Alberta.  I could even see her running there as a way to reach out (she was born in Alberta).

[mileslunn]

This is slightly off topic, but are the BC Liberals the centre right party there? And do they get Tory support?

(On a side note, what is the name of the ultra-safe Liberal riding in west Vancouver? It looks like it went NDP in the recent provincial election.)

BC Liberals are more like Tories than federal Liberals.  Up until 2020, it was a mix, but more of their supporters Conservatives than Liberals although by 2020 most federal Liberal support had swung over to NDP.  West Vancouver-Capilano is the ultra safe one you are talking about and it stayed BC Liberal.  NDP did win the two North Vancouver ones and there North Vancouver-Lonsdale is a swing while North Vancouver-Seymour normally a safe BC Liberal one, but not as lopsided as West Vancouver-Capilano.

[mileslunn]

This is slightly off topic, but are the BC Liberals the centre right party there? And do they get Tory support?

(On a side note, what is the name of the ultra-safe Liberal riding in west Vancouver? It looks like it went NDP in the recent provincial election.)

BC Liberals are more like Tories than federal Liberals.  Up until 2020, it was a mix, but more of their supporters Conservatives than Liberals although by 2020 most federal Liberal support had swung over to NDP.  West Vancouver-Capilano is the ultra safe one you are talking about and it stayed BC Liberal.  NDP did win the two North Vancouver ones and there North Vancouver-Lonsdale is a swing while North Vancouver-Seymour normally a safe BC Liberal one, but not as lopsided as West Vancouver-Capilano.

I was thinking ultra-Liberal federally (it might be Vancouver Quadra?).

Vancouver-Quadra federally is split in two provincial ridings.  Yes Vancouver-Quadra is a super safe Liberal and stayed Liberal even in 2011 disaster.  Provincially split between Vancouver-Point Grey which used to go BC Liberal but now solidly NDP and Vancouver-Quilchena which is still solidly BC Liberal.

[mileslunn]

For people's thoughts on direction of country wondering what people think on following below:

1.  Notley wins in Alberta even against a united right.
2.  Liberals in 2025 under Freeland make a big breakthrough in Alberta (she is originally from there)
3.  NDP beats Tories in votes in next election.
4.  Tories get under 25% of the popular vote
5.  Liberals remain in government continuously past 2030

Any thoughts on these?  I think each has a reasonable chance at happening although #1 probably most likely, others more questionable but still possible.

[mileslunn]

BC Liberals are like the Australian Liberals. 

Many liberal parties in Europe are similar to BC Liberals like VVD in Netherlands, Venstre in Denmark and several others.  In many ways liberalism in North America is more an anomaly as they are watered down social democrats.  Believe in same ideas of social democrats, but a lot more cautious and willing to accept much less.

[mileslunn]

BC Liberals are like the Australian Liberals. 

why is this the case though? And why are BC liberals such an anomaly--it doesn't seem like any provincial Tory or provincial Liberal party in other provinces are as out-of-sync with their national counterparts as the BC liberals

It is more due to history.  Up until 1991, you had NDP on left while Social Credit was the pro free enterprise coalition like BC Liberals today.  By 1991 people were tired of the scandal plagued Social Credit, but many of their voters weren't comfortable going over to NDP.  Gordon Wilson after his one liner in the debate led to surge in support for Liberals who then were like federal Liberals.  In that election BC Liberals pulled ahead of the Social Credit.  Many Social Credit members quit the party after this seeing it was dead and moved over to BC Liberals.  Gordon Wilson was dumped as leader in 1993 and Gordon Campbell took over and it more or less took the same position former Social Credit did.  Had networks not let Gordon Wilson into debate as original plan, Social Credit probably would have formed official opposition and eventually come back so it was more a sequence of events that led to this unique arrangement.  Sask Liberals wanted to do same, but in end not all on board so the right of centre ones joined with the PCs to form Saskatchewan Party.