Canada General Discussion (2019-)

[MaxQue]

CAQ MNA Claire Samson (Iberville) expelled from CAQ for sending a donation to the Quebec Conservative Party.

And she is now a PCQ MNA.

Did the provincial Conservatives run candidates in Quebec in the last provincial election?

Yes, 101 out of 125, missing only:
Abitibi-Est (my riding)
Rimouski
Taschereau (downtown Quebec City)
Mégantic, Sherbrooke, St-François (eastern townships)
Bonaventure, Gaspé, Îles-de-la-Madelaine (totally absent in Gaspésie)
Berthier, Joliette (Lanaudière)
Blainville (Montréal northern suburbs)
Mille-Îles (eastern Laval)
Brome-Missisquoi, St-Hyacinthe (Montérégie)
Montarville (wealthy Franco eastern suburb of Montreal)
Marie-Victorin (downtown Longueuil)
Anjou, Bourget, Gouin, Maurice-Richard, Pointe-aux-Trembles (franco Montreal)
Marguerite-Bourgeois, Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, St-Henri-Ste-Anne (anglo/immigrant Montreal)
Robert-Baldwin (West Island)

In Claire Sanson's Iberville, they did 1.8%.
They only got more than 1000 in 9 ridings, 5 in Quebec City suburbs, 1 in Beauce, one in Greek Laval (Chomedey) with a Greek candidate and 2 in Anglophone Montreal (Nelligan, D'Arcy-McGee)

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/CP24/status/1412412813142802439

She doesn't speak french but is from Quebec. Going to be weird trying to see quebecer try to attack her for not knowing the language despite creating the schools that didn't teach it to her.

Inuit schools were federally-run in 50's.

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/Puglaas/status/1413128438592933898

Did the electors of Granville finally smelled the coffee and realised she was one of the most incompetent and overpromoted politician in Canada?

[MaxQue]

https://twitter.com/Puglaas/status/1413128438592933898

Did the electors of Granville finally smelled the coffee and realised she was one of the most incompetent and overpromoted politician in Canada?

And she was widely considered one of, if not the most incompetent minister during Trudeau's first term. But yall aren't ready for that conversation because SNC woman good

more like native woman good.

[MaxQue]

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/green-party-brass-move-to-block-funding-for-leader-annamie-paul-s-riding-campaign-1.5506874

So the Green Party's still a dumpster fire.

Same at Wilson-Raybault, this is what happens when you choose people for being minority women, despite being totally incompetent.

[MaxQue]

Green Party decides to keep the anti-Quebec bigot and perpetual victim as leader.

[MaxQue]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

Good question.  But how about this, in 2030, CPC wins a landslide majority with huge breakthrough in Quebec under leadership of Caroline Mulroney.  Now that would be even more ironic. 

Doubtful, as the Rob Ford government is widely seen as Anti-French.

[MaxQue]

Who is the Joe Clark waiting in the wings?

Good question.  But how about this, in 2030, CPC wins a landslide majority with huge breakthrough in Quebec under leadership of Caroline Mulroney.  Now that would be even more ironic. 

Doubtful, as the Rob Ford government is widely seen as Anti-French.

Ford perhaps, but Mulroney has been pretty good on this and her father still well liked in Quebec.  Agree Ford is not popular with Francophones but not sure how much his mistakes have rubbed off on others.  Unlike say Lecce, Mulroney has largely stayed out of trouble.

She is the French Affairs minister and never said a word against said policies and applied them without making a noise.

[MaxQue]

On the topic of French language and the brouhaha over Mary Simon's lack of knowledge of it - it's interesting how certain Quebec nationalists tend to forget that 1) Indigenous people exist, 2) they speak their own languages and have been doing so for thousands of years, 3) those languages are vastly more endangered than French in North America.

You don't understand. The Québecois speak French (supposedly). This bestows upon them, à la fois, a tremendous superiority and a tremendous victim complex. It's just innate.

Funny how this criticism of language situtation before the Quiet Revolution also happens to be a perfect description of France's treatment of her own minority languages.

_{Lalonde would've been crucified for this today - OQLF types need a fainting couch when they hear someone mix English and French.}

Troubling timing, as it was just announced she died yesterday.

[MaxQue]

Mainstreet shows tightening too, but Liberals still slightly ahead https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/conservatives-gain-ground-on-liberals-poll-shows/ .  it is paywalled but seems for whatever reason the big Liberal leads have evaporated.  I do wonder what caused that or could it just be due to summer, low response rate so get greater variability?

Other possibility is a lot of the undecideds were past Conservative voters upset O'Toole wasn't Conservative enough but are coming home as this group hates Trudeau with a passion.

With these polls and with the possible resurgence of Covid, I wonder if there is now a real possibility that there won't be an early fall election.  Who knows, the Liberals may even govern up to the fixed election date.

Jody Wilson Raybould would get her M.P pension and the Liberals would actually have to work on reconciliation.  What a wonderful world that would be.

Oh yeah, and maybe Carolyn Bennett and Harjit Sajjan would be fired from the cabinet.

You've got things confused. People shouldn't get pension merely for having overinflated egos and no skills.

[MaxQue]

Mainstreet shows tightening too, but Liberals still slightly ahead https://ipolitics.ca/2021/07/28/conservatives-gain-ground-on-liberals-poll-shows/ .  it is paywalled but seems for whatever reason the big Liberal leads have evaporated.  I do wonder what caused that or could it just be due to summer, low response rate so get greater variability?

Other possibility is a lot of the undecideds were past Conservative voters upset O'Toole wasn't Conservative enough but are coming home as this group hates Trudeau with a passion.

With these polls and with the possible resurgence of Covid, I wonder if there is now a real possibility that there won't be an early fall election.  Who knows, the Liberals may even govern up to the fixed election date.

Jody Wilson Raybould would get her M.P pension and the Liberals would actually have to work on reconciliation.  What a wonderful world that would be.

Oh yeah, and maybe Carolyn Bennett and Harjit Sajjan would be fired from the cabinet.

You've got things confused. People shouldn't get pension merely for having overinflated egos and no skills.

She qualifies for a pension as an M.P if she serves for 6 or more years. I believe that she is not eligible to receive this pension for several more years though until she is 55.

I know that, my comment was about that being a "wonderful" thing.
Through, the age is now 65, as she did not reach 6 years before January 1st, 2016.

[MaxQue]

RIP Bill Davis.

Ontario Premier 1971-1985, representing a seat called Peel which sounds insane to me right now (that area is now represented by 11.5 MPs/MPPs)

[MaxQue]

What are some notable Tories and NDPers running if someone could make a list?

- Heath McDonald, PEI Liberal MLA running in Malpeque
- Jenica Atwin in Fredericton, notable because you know why
- Nathalie Rochefort, former PLQ MNA running in Becancour-Nicolet
- Nancy Drolet, former hockey player and Olympic silver running in Rosemont-Petite Patrie
- Jenna Sudds, Ottawa city councillor running in Kanata-Carleton
- Steve Black, former Timmins mayor running in Timmins-James Bay
- Ben Henderson, Edmonton councillor running in Edmonton-Mill Woods

A pretty comprehensive list however it's worth mentioning that there will be an MLA vs. MLA battle in Miramichi-Grand Lake, which is probably one of the likeliest Tory gains anywhere (NB: that does not mean it is likely!).

On that point, it's entirely possible that the Tories don't gain a single seat this election, which is not as dramatic as it sounds. I really struggle to see viable targets at the moment with a good chance of flipping.

There are some long shots in ridings with no incumbents running:

Malpeque - Is this a Liberal seat or a Wayne Easter seat? Probably both. A strong Green candidacy could split the vote, but with the Greens in shambles, that probably ain't happening.
Miramichi
Trois-Rivieres - I doubt Levesque can gain on his 25% won last time. With the NDP no longer with the incumbency edge, their vote will go to the Bloc.
Kanata-Carleton - traditional Tory seat, but suburbanization is helping the Liberals.
Nunavut - Maybe if Aglukkaq runs
Yukon - The YP just won the PV in last year's territorial election, so there's still a conservative base there.

None of these are particularly likely pickups, though. I wonder if there are any ridings that have a lot of anti-vaxxers/anti-maskers or people opposed to border restrictions that might see a Tory bump? Niagara Falls comes to mind, but it's already held by the Tories.

Yukon has the Yukon public health director (the Tam/Fauci) of Youkon running for the Liberals and the Conservatives removed their candidate this week as he is an opponent of vaccine passports.

[MaxQue]

- Nathalie Rochefort, former PLQ MNA running in Becancour-Nicolet

Very surprised. She was active in the Quebec NDP in the early 00's and kept saying Svend Robinson was her model.

[MaxQue]

Apportionment for new redistricting:

342 seats (+4)
Ontario 122 (+1)
Québec 77 (-1)
BC 43 (+1)
Alberta 37 (+3)

Starting in February, final report by October 2023, would only apply to elections from 2024.

https://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=med&dir=pre&document=oct1521&lang=e

[MaxQue]

She now said to a CBC journalist "I am the Premier, not her".
She is claiming the party made up 500 botes for her opponent.
She is totally insane.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/glover-lawsuit-election-pc-1.6234056

[MaxQue]

She now said to a CBC journalist "I am the Premier, not her".
She is claiming the party made up 500 botes for her opponent.
She is totally insane.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/glover-lawsuit-election-pc-1.6234056

She's not insane, she's copying the Trump playbook.

It may be saying something about my opinion of Donald Trump.

[MaxQue]

Conservative Shadow Cabinet

https://www.conservative.ca/erin-otoole-announces-conservative-shadow-cabinet/

More unwillingness to tackle the far-right element of the party, i.e. giving a position to Marilyn Gladu.

[MaxQue]

Annamie Paul has apparently left the Green Party?

At the same time she finally resigned leadership (which was actually last week).

[MaxQue]

Speaker election today, 7 candidates.

Anthony Rota (Liberal, MP for Nipissing-Temiskaming 2004-2011 and since 2015; incumbent Speaker since 2019)
Alexandra Mendès (Liberal, MP for Brossard-La Prairie 2008-2011 and Brossard--Saint-Lambert since 2015; Assistant Deputy Speaker since 2019)
Marc Dalton (Conservative, MP for Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge since 2019; BC Liberal MLA for Maple Ridge-Mission 2009-2017)
Chris d'Entremont (Conservative, MP for West Nova since 2019; PC MHA for Argyle 2003-2013, Argyle-Barrington 2013-2019; former provincial Cabinet minister)
Joël Godin (Conservative, MP for Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier since 2015)
Carol Hughes (NDP, MP for Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing since 2008; Assistant Deputy Speaker since 2015
Elizabeth May (Green, MP for Saanich-Gulf Islands since 2011; Green Party leader 2006-2019)

[MaxQue]

Like always on the anglophone generals, major news pieces are left out by those who want to hide the truth

Canada’s Indigenous communities brave police violence to block pipeline project

Indigenous groups in Canada resisting a multi-billion dollar pipeline are yet again facing a crackdown. On Thursday, November 18, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) arrested 15 people and attempted to disrupt an Indigenous-led blockade of a drill site. Among those arrested were two community elders, three legal observers and a journalist.

The latest crackdown comes just days after the Gidimt’en clan members of the Wet’suwet’en tribe sent out a notice to the employees of TC Energy’s Coastal GasLink (CGL) pipeline, on November 14. The stand-off between CGL and Indigenous protesters also led to several workers being stranded at the drill site.

Clan members and elders have for weeks been holding a blockade at the drillsite at Coyote Camp, which falls within the Indigenous Wet’suwet’en lands. After the evacuation notice was handed out, CGL was given eight hours time to vacate Wet’suwet’en land.

But according to Gidimt’en activists, who have been manning the blockade at Coyote Camp, not only did the pipeline company request a two-hour extension as a stalling tactic, they also did not inform their employees of the situation, leaving them stranded. The RCMP was also kept in the loop about the evacuation and also the two-hour extension that was granted to CGL for a peaceful exit.

Stop the invasions on the land. Stop Trudeau’s anti-indigenous agenda and the sellouts at the LNG “Alliance”

What is anti-Indigenous is to recognize those self-proclaimed "traditional" governments instead of the governments elected by the Indigenous themselves.

[MaxQue]

Speaker election today, 7 candidates.

Anthony Rota (Liberal, MP for Nipissing-Temiskaming 2004-2011 and since 2015; incumbent Speaker since 2019)
Alexandra Mendès (Liberal, MP for Brossard-La Prairie 2008-2011 and Brossard--Saint-Lambert since 2015; Assistant Deputy Speaker since 2019)
Marc Dalton (Conservative, MP for Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge since 2019; BC Liberal MLA for Maple Ridge-Mission 2009-2017)
Chris d'Entremont (Conservative, MP for West Nova since 2019; PC MHA for Argyle 2003-2013, Argyle-Barrington 2013-2019; former provincial Cabinet minister)
Joël Godin (Conservative, MP for Portneuf--Jacques-Cartier since 2015)
Carol Hughes (NDP, MP for Algoma-Manitoulin-Kapuskasing since 2008; Assistant Deputy Speaker since 2015
Elizabeth May (Green, MP for Saanich-Gulf Islands since 2011; Green Party leader 2006-2019)

Interesting in that if Elizabeth May becomes Speaker that could be the death knell for the party at the federal level.  They have the one other M.P in Kitchener, Mike Morrice, but he doesn't seem to be interested in running for the leadership, and, while this is purely speculation on my part, he seems to be more of a pragmatic environmentalist, the exact sort of person the Liberals would attempt to woo to their party.

and Rota is reelected.

[MaxQue]

There were an additional 28 deputy shadow ministers for a grand total of 83 in the official opposition shadow cabinet or caucus officers.

These are the 36 Conservative M.Ps left out:
British Columbia
1.Rob Morrison
2.Mark Strahl
3.Mark Dalton

Alberta
4.Chris Warkentin
5.Shannon Stubbs
6.Rachael Harder
7.Glen Motz
8.Arnold Viersen
9.Earl Dreeshen
10.Gerald Soroka
11.Michael Cooper
12.Greg McLean
13.Len Webber
14.Bob Benzen
15.Pat Kelly
16.Tom Kmiec
17.Ron Liepert

Saskatchewan
18.Rosemarie Falk
19.Kelly Block
20.Jeremy Patzer
21.Robert Kitchener
22.Cathay Wagantall
23.Michael Kram

Manitoba
24.Dan Mazier
25.Ted Falk
26.Marty Morantz

Ontario
27.Cheryl Gallant
28.Alex Ruff
29.Kyle Seeback
30.Dean Allison
31.Leslyn Lewis
32.Dave MacKenzie
33.Marilyn Gladu
34.Colin Carrie

Quebec
35.Joel Godin

New Brunswick
36.John Williamson

Some of them are not really left out, as the Deputy Speaker (Bruce Stanton retired, so maybe Joel Godin or Marc Dalton?) is not named yet, neither are commission chairs (Warkentin was Ethics chair, Gladu was Status of Women chair (through I assume she will be replaced), Kitchen (not Kitchener) was chair of Government Operations, Block was chair of Public Accounts and Allison was co-chair of Regulations).

[MaxQue]

There were an additional 28 deputy shadow ministers for a grand total of 83 in the official opposition shadow cabinet or caucus officers.

These are the 36 Conservative M.Ps left out:
British Columbia
1.Rob Morrison
2.Mark Strahl
3.Mark Dalton

Alberta
4.Chris Warkentin
5.Shannon Stubbs
6.Rachael Harder
7.Glen Motz
8.Arnold Viersen
9.Earl Dreeshen
10.Gerald Soroka
11.Michael Cooper
12.Greg McLean
13.Len Webber
14.Bob Benzen
15.Pat Kelly
16.Tom Kmiec
17.Ron Liepert

Saskatchewan
18.Rosemarie Falk
19.Kelly Block
20.Jeremy Patzer
21.Robert Kitchen
22.Cathay Wagantall
23.Michael Kram

Manitoba
24.Dan Mazier
25.Ted Falk
26.Marty Morantz

Ontario
27.Cheryl Gallant
28.Alex Ruff
29.Kyle Seeback
30.Dean Allison
31.Leslyn Lewis
32.Dave MacKenzie
33.Marilyn Gladu
34.Colin Carrie

Quebec
35.Joel Godin

New Brunswick
36.John Williamson

Some of them are not really left out, as the Deputy Speaker (Bruce Stanton retired, so maybe Joel Godin or Marc Dalton?) is not named yet, neither are commission chairs (Warkentin was Ethics chair, Gladu was Status of Women chair (through I assume she will be replaced), Kitchen (not Kitchener) was chair of Government Operations, Block was chair of Public Accounts and Allison was co-chair of Regulations).

Yes, thanks for this addition. I was thinking of mentioning something like that but I couldn't find out all the Conservative M.Ps who have been offside with O'Toole, so I decided to just write up the list of those not included and let that speak for itself.

A few points though now that you've added some of the names

1.In terms of Assistant or Deputy Speakers, for what it's worth if anything, Marc Dalton was an Assistant Deputy Speaker in the B.C legislature for at least part of 2013-2017.

2.Rob Merrifield and probably a couple others were members of the National Security (oversight) Committee which the Conservatives quit in protest to some Liberal government action.  It is possible the Conservatives will either rejoin or will negotiate to try to rejoin.

3.Thanks for the information on the Conservative M.Ps who were committee chairs in the last Parliament.  Of course, I wouldn't expect Dean Allison to be reappointed as he has gone full 'antivax.'  (Never go full antivax.)

I also wouldn't expect Chris Warkentin to receive any position as he, along with the similarly left out Shannon Stubbs, have both been critical of Erin O'Toole's leadership.

4.On the other side, I'm familiar with at least Ron Liepert and Marty Morantz who have been supportive of Erin O'Toole's leadership, so I'm surprised they weren't appointed to any shadow cabinet positions, especially since both are senior politicians.  Liepert might have been left out due to his age (72) but he is a former Alberta Finance Minister, while Morantz is just one of 13 lawyers in the Conservative caucus.  

Morantz was also a Winnipeg City Councilor and chair of its finance committee.  Two Winnipeg City Council finance committee chairs have gone on to higher office: Greg Selinger first as Finance Minister under Gary Doer and then as Premier, and Scott Fielding, the current Finance Minister.  Former Manitoba Premier Gary Filmon was also previously a Winnipeg City Councilor. While he wasn't the finance committee chair (if the position existed at that time) he was on the Winnipeg city council executive committee.

5.It is interesting though, I think, that 14 of those left out (so far) are Albertans.  That's almost half (14/30) of the Alberta Conservative caucus.

I also agree that with the other comments that there seem to be three 'buckets' of those who were left out:  1.those critical of Erin O'Toole, 2.the anti vaxxers 3.at least some of the overtly religious right.  I believe about half of the Conservative caucus voted against the Conversion Therapy ban in the last Parliament, so obviously many who voted against it have Shadow Cabinet positions, but it does seem that many if not all of the most vocal against it have been left out.

Deputy Speaker will be Chris d'Entremont. Also, the Conservatives didn't resign from the Committee, they are boycotting it, instead.

[MaxQue]

Green new leader is Amita Kuttner. They were the candidate in Burbaby North - Seymour in 2019 and got 7% in the last leadership race. They are obviously, the first non-binary party leader.

Aparently, the favourite to become interim party leader was Paul Manly, but he pulled out. Rumour is that he wants to run for permanent leader in a few months.